Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is starting the week in focus as chip stocks catch a fresh bid heading into a holiday-shortened stretch for U.S. markets. As of Monday, December 22, 2025, Intel shares were trading around $36.82, up about 1.6% from the prior close in early trading.
That move isn’t happening in a vacuum. Investors are weighing a dense mix of catalysts around Intel—some market-wide (AI-driven sentiment and macro data) and some extremely company-specific (the status of NVIDIA’s investment, U.S. government ownership, and the credibility of Intel Foundry’s technology roadmap).
Why Intel stock is moving on December 22, 2025
Intel is participating in a broad “AI-rebound” mood that’s lifting large-cap semiconductor names at the start of the Christmas week. Reuters reported U.S. stock futures ticking higher as tech gained traction again, with Intel among several chipmakers up more than 1% in premarket trading, alongside Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD. Reuters also flagged that liquidity may be thinner than usual with early market close Wednesday and markets shut Thursday for Christmas, while investors monitor upcoming U.S. data releases (including GDP, consumer confidence, and jobless claims). [1]
For Intel specifically, the bigger story is that the market is still digesting several major strategic developments from the second half of 2025—developments that could reshape how investors value INTC: as a legacy PC/server CPU company, as a foundry turnaround, or as something closer to a state-backed industrial platform with heavyweight partners.
The headline catalysts investors are pricing into INTC
1) NVIDIA’s Intel investment cleared U.S. antitrust review
One of the most consequential Intel-related headlines in recent days: U.S. antitrust agencies cleared NVIDIA’s investment in Intel, according to a notice posted by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and reported by Reuters on December 19, 2025. While the notice did not detail the full transaction terms, Reuters tied it to NVIDIA’s earlier announcement that it planned to invest $5 billion in Intel. [2]
Why it matters: clearing antitrust review reduces a major “deal friction” risk and increases the odds that the investment proceeds on schedule—important for a company like Intel where confidence, capital, and customer traction in foundry are deeply intertwined.
2) The NVIDIA–Intel partnership: custom x86 CPUs, NVLink connectivity, and RTX chiplets
Beyond the money, the strategic scope of the NVIDIA–Intel collaboration is what grabbed investors in 2025 and continues to shape Intel’s narrative.
In NVIDIA’s September 18, 2025 announcement, the companies laid out plans to work on multiple generations of products spanning data center and client computing, including:
- Intel-built NVIDIA-custom x86 data center CPUs intended for NVIDIA AI infrastructure platforms
- Intel x86 SoCs integrating NVIDIA RTX GPU chiplets for PCs
- A focus on “seamlessly connecting” architectures using NVIDIA NVLink [3]
NVIDIA also disclosed it would invest $5 billion in Intel common stock at a purchase price of $23.28 per share, subject to customary closing conditions and required regulatory approvals (now substantially de-risked after the FTC-related clearance). [4]
For INTC stock, the partnership functions like a narrative accelerant: it ties Intel to the AI infrastructure ecosystem more directly, while implicitly signaling that Intel’s manufacturing and packaging ambitions are credible enough for NVIDIA to commit real capital.
3) The U.S. government is now a major Intel shareholder
Intel’s capital structure and political context changed dramatically in 2025.
Intel announced an agreement under which the United States government will make an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock, funded by previously awarded (but unpaid) amounts tied to the CHIPS and Science Act and funding connected to the Secure Enclave program. Intel described the transaction as bringing total U.S. investment to $11.1 billion when combined with earlier CHIPS grants received. [5]
Key disclosed terms included:
- The government purchasing 433.3 million primary shares at $20.47 per share, equivalent to a 9.9% stake
- The ownership described as passive, with no board representation
- A five-year warrant (strike $20/share) for an additional 5%—exercisable only if Intel ceases to own at least 51% of the foundry business [6]
Reuters separately reported the stake as part of a broader and unusual wave of federal interventions in corporate America, noting the stake price implied a discount to Intel’s then-current market price at the time of the announcement. [7]
For Intel shareholders, the government stake cuts two ways:
- It can be read as support for Intel’s manufacturing buildout and national-security positioning.
- It can also be read as a new category of “policy risk,” where political priorities can shape capital allocation and strategy.
4) Intel Foundry’s “credibility test”: technology milestones, but profitability still the hard part
Intel’s foundry turnaround thesis depends on two things happening at once:
- The technology roadmap must be real (not just slides).
- External customers must commit volume business at leading-edge nodes.
On the technology side, Intel’s recent progress includes a notable High-NA EUV milestone. Reporting from Bits&Chips said Intel completed acceptance testing for ASML’s TWINSCAN EXE:5200B high-NA EUV scanner—an important step toward future high-volume manufacturing—citing key performance targets such as 175 wafers per hour throughput and 0.7 nm overlay accuracy, and framing 2027 as the period when Intel could start risk production of 14A chips if plans hold. [8]
Separately, industry coverage has described Intel installing ASML’s EXE:5200B as a meaningful move toward making 14A more than a roadmap bullet point. [9]
On Intel’s own messaging about foundry readiness, the company has emphasized that:
- Intel 18A entered risk production and was expected to reach volume manufacturing
- Intel distributed an early Intel 14A PDK (process design kit) to lead customers, with multiple customers expressing intent to build test chips
- 14A is positioned as the successor node with new power-delivery features (PowerDirect building on PowerVia) [10]
The harder part remains the business model. In late August, Reuters reported Intel’s finance chief discussed incentives tied to maintaining control of the foundry business and said Intel was focused on landing a major customer next year while maintaining financial discipline—after Intel had publicly disclosed that the future of its foundry business depended on securing a big customer for its next-gen node, and that failing to do so could force a rethink of the foundry path. [11]
Intel’s latest earnings snapshot: what the company most recently reported
Intel’s most recent quarterly report (as of Dec. 22, 2025) was its third-quarter 2025 release.
Highlights Intel reported included:
- Revenue:$13.7 billion (up 3% year over year)
- Non-GAAP EPS:$0.23
- Q4 2025 guidance: revenue $12.8B–$13.8B, non-GAAP EPS $0.08, GAAP EPS (loss) $(0.14)
- Guidance noted as excluding Altera following the sale of a majority ownership interest completed in Q3 2025 [12]
Intel also pointed to balance sheet and funding actions and characterized demand as strong—its CFO said current demand was outpacing supply and expected that dynamic to persist into 2026. [13]
Reuters coverage around the Q3 report emphasized that investors reacted positively to profit performance and cost actions, describing the quarter as a “turning point” moment in market psychology—though Intel’s competitive and execution challenges remain central to the longer story. [14]
Analyst forecasts for Intel stock: consensus targets vs. where INTC trades now
Forecasting Intel is unusually contentious because the company sits at the intersection of two very different valuation frameworks:
- A mature CPU franchise where investors focus on margins, share trends, and cash generation
- A capital-intensive manufacturing/foundry transformation where investors focus on multi-year roadmap risk, customer wins, and political/industrial support
One widely cited snapshot of Street expectations comes from MarketBeat’s consensus compilation, which (as of its latest update viewable today) lists:
- Consensus rating: “Reduce”
- Average 12-month price target:$34.84
- High target:$52.00; low target:$20.00
- Ratings mix (34 analysts): 8 sell, 24 hold, 2 buy [15]
With INTC around $36.82 early Monday, that puts Intel slightly above that particular consensus target—an important psychological detail, because it suggests that even after Intel’s 2025 rebound, many analysts still view the base case as “prove it” rather than “party time.” [16]
What Intel’s 2026 outlook really hinges on
Here’s the clean way to think about Intel’s near-term setup without pretending the future is a solved puzzle.
The bull case: Intel as a re-legitimized U.S. manufacturing platform
Optimists point to a reinforcing feedback loop:
- AI demand keeps driving investment across the semiconductor supply chain
- Equipment and fab spending forecasts remain elevated (SEMI projected semiconductor equipment sales hitting records through 2027, driven by AI-related demand) [17]
- Intel’s U.S.-based manufacturing push becomes strategically valuable—not just economically, but geopolitically
- Intel’s partnership and capital backing from NVIDIA (and other investors Intel has referenced in 2025) boosts customer confidence and helps foundry conversion
If that loop holds, INTC isn’t merely a cyclical chip stock—it becomes a leveraged play on domestic capacity, advanced packaging, and the “AI infrastructure era,” with government support acting like shock absorbers during execution volatility.
The bear case: execution risk plus capital intensity (with politics in the room)
Skeptics aren’t necessarily betting against semiconductors; they’re betting against Intel’s ability to execute fast enough.
The bear framework usually includes:
- Foundry economics are brutal: huge capex, long timelines, and customer qualification cycles measured in years
- Winning customers at 14A/next-gen nodes is not optional—it’s existential for ROI
- Government ownership can stabilize funding but may add strategic constraints and headline risk
- Competition remains fierce: TSMC’s scale and reputation, AMD’s CPU momentum, and NVIDIA’s gravitational pull in AI
Even Intel’s own deal structure with the U.S.—including the warrant linked to maintaining majority control of foundry—underscores how central foundry control has become to the company’s strategic identity. [18]
Leadership and governance: Intel keeps reshaping the org chart
Intel’s management and policy-facing posture has been shifting alongside the capital structure.
On December 15, Reuters reported Intel appointed Robin Colwell, a former Trump economic adviser, as head of government affairs amid broader senior leadership changes. [19]
Intel’s own announcement described Colwell as Senior VP of Government Affairs, along with additional leadership appointments spanning government technologies and communications/marketing, reflecting how much Intel now operates at the intersection of technology, industrial policy, and regulation. [20]
And earlier in November, Reuters reported CEO Lip-Bu Tan would oversee Intel’s AI efforts following the departure of an executive to OpenAI—another sign that Intel is trying to centralize accountability for the AI strategy while it rebuilds credibility in data center and accelerators. [21]
Bottom line for INTC stock on Dec. 22, 2025
Intel stock is trading in that rare zone where macro sentiment (the AI trade, rates expectations, holiday liquidity) matters day-to-day, but strategic catalysts determine whether rallies stick.
As of today, the market is balancing:
- A clearer path for NVIDIA’s investment after antitrust clearance [22]
- The reality of Intel’s unusual shareholder base and policy entanglement after the U.S. government stake [23]
- Concrete technical steps in the foundry roadmap (like High-NA EUV acceptance testing) that support the “Intel can build leading-edge again” argument [24]
- A still-cautious analyst community, with consensus targets that—depending on the methodology you follow—suggest Intel must keep earning the market’s trust [25]
Over the next several quarters, Intel’s stock is likely to respond less to slogans (“AI!”) and more to receipts: customer commitments, manufacturing yields, and whether the foundry story can move from “national priority” to “repeatable profitability.”
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 4. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 5. newsroom.intel.com, 6. newsroom.intel.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. bits-chips.com, 9. www.tomshardware.com, 10. newsroom.intel.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.intc.com, 13. www.intc.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.semi.org, 18. newsroom.intel.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. newsroom.intel.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. newsroom.intel.com, 24. bits-chips.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com
