Warner Bros. Discovery Stock (WBD) Today: Paramount Adds Larry Ellison’s $40.4B Guarantee, Netflix Locks In Deal Financing

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBD) stock is trading like a referendum on one question: which bidder (if any) ultimately wins one of the biggest media takeovers in history.

As of Dec. 22, 2025, WBD shares were last at $27.77, after swinging between $27.07 and $29.31 in a volatile session.

The day’s catalyst is straightforward: Paramount Skydance doubled down on its hostile takeover attempt with a major financing upgrade—an “irrevocable personal guarantee” from Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison covering $40.4 billion of equity financing—while Netflix moved to strengthen its own bid by refinancing a large piece of the bridge funding backing its Warner deal. ^[1]

Below is the full picture—today’s news, the latest deal terms, near-term timeline, regulatory risk, and what current forecasts imply for WBD stock from here.

WBD stock price action: why shares are moving on Dec. 22, 2025

WBD stock is reacting to rapidly evolving takeover math.

On Monday, Reuters reported that Paramount’s updated bid keeps the price at $30 per share in cash, but attempts to remove a key objection raised by Warner’s board: financing certainty. In premarket trade, Reuters said WBD was up nearly 4% after the revision (and Paramount Skydance also rose). ^[2]

That lines up with what’s happening in the tape: the stock is trading in a zone that reflects a blend of:

deal probability (will Paramount succeed?),
deal timing (how long will the regulatory path take?), and
downside if the M&A fight collapses (where does WBD trade as a standalone company?).

As of this update, the market is still pricing WBD below Paramount’s $30 cash offer—a classic sign that investors see meaningful uncertainty and/or delay risk. ^[3]

Paramount’s revised $30 bid: what changed today

Paramount Skydance’s announcement (via PRNewswire) is unusually direct: it says the offer was amended specifically to address concerns Warner raised about the prior financing structure. ^[4]

The biggest headline: Ellison’s $40.4 billion personal guarantee

Paramount says Larry Ellison will personally guarantee $40.4 billion of equity financing for the offer and “any damages claims,” framing the move as the fix Warner demanded. ^[5]

Other key changes (and why they matter to WBD shareholders)

According to Paramount’s release, the amended offer also includes: ^[6]

A pledge not to revoke or adversely transfer assets from the Ellison family trust while the transaction is pending.
A disclosure that the Ellison family trust holds ~1.16 billion shares of Oracle stock (as part of proving financial capacity).
Improved flexibility for Warner on certain interim operating covenants and debt refinancing mechanics.
An increase in the regulatory reverse termination fee to $5.8 billion (up from $5.0 billion) to match the competing deal terms.
A tender offer expiration extension to 5:00 p.m. New York time on Jan. 21, 2026 (unless extended).
A condition that WBD must continue to own 100% of its Global Networks business. ^[7]

Paramount also disclosed tender participation data: as of Dec. 19, 2025, 397,252 shares had been validly tendered and not withdrawn. ^[8]

The market implication

A $30 all-cash offer sets a very clean reference point. Against today’s $27.77 trade, that headline price represents about 8.03% upside—but only if the deal closes as proposed and on a timeline investors find acceptable. ^[9]

Netflix’s move today: refinancing the Warner deal bridge loan

While Paramount improved its bid optics, Netflix also brought real ammunition.

Reuters reported that Netflix refinanced part of the $59 billion bridge loan tied to its planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery’s film and TV studios and streaming assets. Specifically, Netflix lined up: ^[10]

a $5 billion revolving credit facility, plus
two $10 billion delayed-draw term loans,
leaving about $34 billion of the bridge facility to be syndicated.

Reuters added that proceeds are intended to fund the cash portion of the deal, related fees/expenses, and potentially refinancing and general corporate purposes. ^[11]

Just as importantly for WBD stock’s “timeline risk,” Reuters said Netflix expects the deal to close after Warner spins off its Global Networks unit in Q3 2026. ^[12]

Why WBD’s board is still backing Netflix (despite the higher $30 cash bid)

This is the tension powering the whole trade: why would Warner pick Netflix at $27.75 (plus deal structure) when Paramount is waving $30 cash?

Warner Bros. Discovery’s investor relations release from Dec. 17, 2025 states the board unanimously recommends shareholders reject Paramount’s tender offer and reiterates support for the Netflix combination, calling it “superior” and “more certain” value. ^[13]

On Dec. 22, Reuters summarized the board’s historical objection as doubts over deal financing and the lack of a full backing from the Ellison family, which it said contributed to Warner preferring a cash-and-stock structure with Netflix. ^[14]

Paramount’s revised package is designed to attack that exact point—essentially arguing: fine, here’s the guarantee; now take the higher cash. ^[15]

But there’s another major reason boards often lean toward the “cleaner” partner: regulatory risk and execution risk—and in this case, both paths are loaded.

Regulatory risk: the real gatekeeper for WBD stock

Even if shareholders choose a winner, regulators can still reshape (or block) the outcome.

Reuters reported today that either deal would face intense antitrust scrutiny in the U.S. and Europe, and that lawmakers in both parties have raised concerns about media consolidation. Reuters also noted President Donald Trump has said he plans to weigh in on the transactions. ^[16]

Reuters laid out the political framing on both sides: ^[17]

A Paramount–Warner combination would create a studio “larger than industry leader Disney” and combine major TV operators—sparking concerns from some Democratic senators about control over what Americans watch.
A Netflix–Warner tie-up would “cement Netflix’s dominance,” producing a combined group with 428 million subscribers (per Reuters). Netflix has argued the deal would benefit consumers via bundling and said it would honor Warner’s theatrical commitments. ^[18]

For WBD stock, this matters because regulatory time is financial time: the longer the path, the more investors discount the headline price—especially if markets grow skeptical of approval odds.

Today’s analyst and investor read-through: “step in the right direction,” but maybe not enough

Reuters quoted Paolo Pescatore of PP Foresight describing Paramount’s move as a “last-ditch effort,” adding that while the improved terms are “a step in the right direction,” it’s “unlikely to be enough.” ^[19]

At the same time, Reuters reported that at least some WBD investors—including Harris Associates, identified as the fifth-largest shareholder—have said they could be open to revised offers from Paramount if it addresses deal-term issues. ^[20]

Translation: the market isn’t treating this as settled. It’s treating it as a probabilistic contest where additional revisions (price, structure, or concessions) remain possible.

Forecasts for WBD stock: three scenarios investors are modeling right now

Because WBD is in a live M&A battle, conventional “12-month price targets” matter less than usual. Still, they’re useful for understanding downside if the deal breaks, and how much of today’s price is deal premium vs. fundamentals.

Scenario 1: Paramount wins at $30 cash

If Paramount’s all-cash $30 per share offer ultimately closes, the spread from $27.77 is about +8.03%. ^[21]

But that return is not “free”: the spread exists because investors see:

regulatory hurdles,
execution risk (tender mechanics, litigation, deal conditions), and
timeline uncertainty (money tied up longer = lower annualized return).

Scenario 2: Netflix closes on its current structure

Netflix’s deal is structurally different (and partially dependent on Warner’s planned separation of assets). Reuters reported the transaction is expected to close after the Global Networks spin-off in Q3 2026. ^[22]

In other words, even if Netflix is the board’s preferred outcome, timing and regulatory friction are central to WBD’s stock path.

Scenario 3: The whole M&A saga collapses (reversion to “standalone” valuation)

Here’s where conventional analyst forecasts come back into play.

MarketBeat’s compiled analyst data shows an average 12‑month WBD price target around $23.22 (with a wide high/low range). ^[23]
TipRanks shows an average price target around $23.61, also with a broad range. ^[24]

Those aggregators imply that—absent deal optionality—many analysts would place WBD below today’s trading level, which helps explain why deal headlines are doing so much heavy lifting for the stock.

One notable counterpoint: Investing.com reported that Benchmark raised its WBD price target to $30 earlier this month (Dec. 8), maintaining a Buy rating and citing a longer-horizon sum-of-the-parts approach; it also highlighted the breakup-fee dynamics as a downside buffer (though not baked into the formal target). ^[25]

One more factor investors are weighing: “fundamentals” still matter if the deal drags

A clean way to think about it: WBD is currently priced like a company with an embedded M&A option. If regulators slow-walk the process or the bids weaken, the market will pay more attention to the underlying business trajectory.

A Seeking Alpha analysis published today argued that WBD’s recent gains reflect “one-off windfalls” rather than sustainable improvement and stressed that a Netflix-Warner combination would face meaningful antitrust, legal, and execution risks. ^[26]

You don’t have to agree with that view to recognize the practical takeaway: the longer the deal takes, the more room there is for narrative whiplash—and the more WBD’s standalone performance starts to reassert itself in the valuation.

What could move Warner Bros. Discovery stock next: key dates and triggers

The next catalysts are mostly process-driven, not quarterly-driven:

Jan. 21, 2026: Paramount’s tender offer expiration date (unless extended). ^[27]
Financing and filing updates: Netflix’s refinancing step is already public; more funding and regulatory disclosures could follow. ^[28]
Regulatory signals: Any early comments or procedural moves from U.S. or European competition authorities could shift perceived odds quickly. ^[29]
Shareholder vote timing: Reuters noted the shareholder vote is not expected until spring (per reporting summarized today). ^[30]

Bottom line: WBD is a deal stock now — and the spread is telling you the market’s doubts

On Dec. 22, 2025, Warner Bros. Discovery stock is reacting to two simultaneous signals:

Paramount is trying to remove the board’s biggest objection by putting Larry Ellison’s personal balance sheet behind the bid (without raising the price). ^[31]
Netflix is reinforcing deal credibility by restructuring large-scale financing ahead of what Reuters calls one of the biggest media transactions in history, with closing expected after a Q3 2026 spin-off. ^[32]

For investors, the key is that WBD’s current price—below $30—means the market still assigns meaningful probability to delay, litigation, or outright derailment. Until that probability collapses in one direction, WBD shares are likely to remain headline-sensitive and volatile, with regulatory developments doing more to move the stock than any single operating metric.

References

Warner Bros. Discovery Stock (WBD) Today: Paramount Adds Larry Ellison’s $40.4B Guarantee, Netflix Locks In Deal Financing — What It Means for Shares (Dec. 22, 2025)