As of Monday, December 22, 2025, Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) is once again at the center of a familiar market debate: is this a battered pharma giant destined to stay “dead money,” or a dividend-rich turnaround story that could surprise investors as its pipeline matures?
The short-term reality is tough to miss. Pfizer has guided to flat-to-down revenue in 2026, with continued COVID-franchise erosion and an accelerating loss-of-exclusivity cycle. But the longer-term case—outlined in a wave of investor and analyst commentary this month—rests on whether Pfizer can execute in the two areas that matter most to its post-patent-cliff future: oncology and obesity/cardiometabolic medicine. [1]
Below is what’s new today (Dec. 22) and what’s moved the Pfizer narrative in the days leading up to it—and why those developments matter for Pfizer’s stock, pipeline credibility, and long-term moat.
The latest Pfizer news on Dec. 22, 2025: a new prostate cancer program under its Flagship alliance
Pfizer’s most notable news item today is pipeline-adjacent rather than a late-stage readout: Flagship Pioneering and Repertoire Immune Medicines announced a new research program under their strategic partnership with Pfizer aimed at identifying and optimizing TCR (T-cell receptor) bispecifics for metastatic prostate cancer. The release frames it as the eighth program launched under Flagship’s broader collaboration with Pfizer first announced in 2023. [2]
Why this matters: Pfizer’s core problem isn’t a lack of R&D spending—it’s investor confidence that the spending will translate into differentiated assets that can replace revenue lost to patent expirations. New modality work (like TCR bispecifics) won’t change 2026 numbers, but it adds to the evidence that Pfizer is actively “rebuilding the shelves” in oncology beyond its big acquisitions and established franchises. [3]
Pfizer’s 2026 guidance reset: flat sales, higher R&D, and a bigger spotlight on execution
The defining financial headline this week remains Pfizer’s December 16, 2025 guidance update.
Pfizer guided 2026 revenue of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.80 to $3.00. It also revised 2025 revenue to approximately $62.0 billion, while projecting COVID-product revenue of about $5.0 billion in 2026 versus about $6.5 billion expected in 2025. [4]
Two details are especially important for the “rebound vs. dead money” argument:
- Pfizer expects roughly $1.5 billion of year-over-year revenue headwind from COVID products and another roughly $1.5 billion from loss of exclusivity (LOE) effects. [5]
- Pfizer also signaled higher R&D spend in 2026 (guiding $10.5–$11.5 billion) to advance major clinical programs, including assets tied to recent deals. [6]
Reuters summarized the market’s core concern bluntly: Pfizer expects “bumpy” years before returning to growth, with management pointing to acquisitions and pipeline progress as the bridge to 2029–2030. [7]
The patent cliff is the backdrop for everything—and investors are pricing it in now
Pfizer’s looming patent expirations are not a theoretical risk; they are the gravitational force behind its cost program, deal-making spree, and the stock’s valuation discount.
Investor’s Business Daily highlighted that Pfizer is staring at a major LOE cycle, with key products such as Eliquis, Xtandi, Ibrance, and Prevnar 13 expected to lose exclusivity by 2028, and argued those products represented a significant share of Pfizer’s prior revenue base. [8]
More broadly, the Financial Times has described the industry-wide “patent cliff” in 2027–2028 as a multibillion-dollar revenue shock pushing big pharma toward acquisitions and earlier-stage bets—precisely the strategy Pfizer is pursuing in obesity and oncology. [9]
This is why “pipeline execution” is not just a nice-to-have phrase. For Pfizer, it’s the only credible path to replacing revenue fast enough to stabilize sentiment—and eventually expand the stock’s multiple.
Oncology: Pfizer is leaning on “real” catalysts, not just promises
1) PADCEV + Keytruda: a Phase 3 bladder cancer win with regulatory implications
On December 17, 2025, Pfizer and Astellas announced positive topline results from an interim analysis of the Phase 3 EV-304 (KEYNOTE-B15) trial for PADCEV (enfortumab vedotin) plus Keytruda (pembrolizumab) in muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC).
Pfizer said the study met its primary endpoint with statistically significant improvement in event-free survival and also met a key secondary endpoint in overall survival, with a consistent safety profile. [10]
Pfizer explicitly positioned the regimen as the first and only perioperative regimen without platinum-based chemotherapy to improve event-free and overall survival in cisplatin-eligible MIBC patients—and said the results will be discussed with regulators for potential filings. [11]
Merck likewise emphasized the combination’s statistically significant and clinically meaningful benefits across endpoints in its own statement. [12]
Why this matters for Pfizer stock: oncology is one of Pfizer’s clearest “right to win” categories, and ADC-based platforms are where the company has placed major strategic chips. Positive Phase 3 readouts that plausibly expand addressable populations are exactly the kind of execution investors want to see as Pfizer tries to offset LOE pressure. [13]
2) The PADCEV franchise is also building on recent FDA momentum
Pfizer also noted that PADCEV plus Keytruda had recently been approved by the U.S. FDA for cisplatin-ineligible MIBC patients as perioperative therapy (based on EV-303 / KEYNOTE-905), underscoring that EV-304 could potentially broaden use into cisplatin-eligible settings. [14]
3) Tukysa: late-stage data adds to breadth in solid tumors
Pfizer also received attention in medical-news coverage after Reuters reported late-stage trial results showing Tukysa (tucatinib) added to maintenance therapy delayed disease progression in HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer patients who had already responded to initial treatment. Reuters described a meaningful progression-free survival improvement versus placebo when added to Herceptin/Perjeta maintenance, citing data presented at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium and published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology. [15]
Again, this is not a single “mega-blockbuster moment”—but it contributes to a pattern Pfizer badly needs: repeated, credible oncology readouts and program expansions that reduce the odds investors assign to a prolonged “pipeline disappointment” era.
4) Today’s Flagship/Repertoire program fits the oncology rebuild narrative
The newly announced metastatic prostate cancer TCR-bispecific program won’t hit near-term revenue. But it signals Pfizer’s continued interest in next-generation immuno-oncology modalities, which could matter later in the decade if they produce differentiated assets. [16]
Obesity: Pfizer is still playing catch-up—but it’s spending to change that
If oncology is Pfizer’s credibility engine, obesity is Pfizer’s potential re-rating engine—because it’s where the global market is expanding fastest and where the biggest pharma winners are being made.
Pfizer’s obesity gap is real, and the company has said as much through its deal strategy
Reuters noted that Pfizer discontinued two oral GLP-1 candidates—lotiglipron (in 2023) and danuglipron (in 2025)—due to liver safety concerns, leaving it without a viable in-house obesity pill at the time it struck its newest licensing deal. [17]
That helps explain why Pfizer has shifted from “build” to “buy and partner” in obesity.
1) Metsera acquisition: Pfizer’s fastest path back into serious contention
Pfizer completed its acquisition of Metsera in November 2025, describing it as a strategic move to bring in clinical-stage obesity and cardiometabolic candidates.
Per Pfizer, the acquisition added:
- MET-097i, a weekly and monthly injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist about to begin Phase 3 development
- MET-233i, a monthly amylin analog in Phase 1, alone and in combination
- an oral GLP-1 RA candidate in Phase 1
- additional preclinical programs [18]
Pfizer said it paid $65.60 per share in cash, implying an enterprise value of about $7.0 billion, plus a contingent value right tied to milestones. [19]
Reuters has also described the deal as worth up to $10 billion, with Metsera’s lead candidate positioned as a less-frequent dosing alternative to weekly injections—an angle investors have watched closely as the market debates convenience and adherence. [20]
2) Fosun/YaoPharma GLP-1 pill: Pfizer’s newest obesity swing, with a China-to-global pipeline blueprint
The most direct link to the user-provided Bamboo Works article is Pfizer’s licensing agreement with YaoPharma, a subsidiary of Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical.
Pfizer announced on December 9, 2025 it had entered an exclusive global collaboration and license agreement for YP05002, described as a small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist in Phase 1 for chronic weight management. [21]
Reuters reported the deal terms as:
- $150 million upfront
- up to $1.94 billion in milestones
- tiered royalties if approved
- YaoPharma will complete the ongoing clinical trial, while Pfizer gains rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize globally [22]
Bamboo Works added two crucial strategic points:
- YP05002 is still early (Phase 1), and Pfizer negotiated an opt-out clause allowing it to cancel with 60 days’ written notice—a structure that reflects how uncertain early metabolic programs can be. [23]
- The deal is also part of a broader pattern: multinational pharma increasingly licensing China-developed GLP-1 assets to speed timelines and diversify pipelines. [24]
Fosun’s own release similarly framed the agreement as an internationalization milestone for its subsidiary. [25]
Why oral GLP-1 pills matter—and why they’re difficult
Bamboo Works captured the trade-off well: pills are more convenient than injections, but existing oral versions have faced issues like absorption constraints and dosing requirements. The prize for cracking the “easy-to-take, scalable pill” problem is enormous—especially as obesity is treated more like a chronic condition requiring long-term adherence. [26]
The competitive backdrop is intensifying—fast
Even as Pfizer tries to buy time and optionality, the obesity leaders are pushing the frontier:
- The Wall Street Journal reported Novo Nordisk filed for FDA approval of CagriSema, a next-generation obesity shot combining semaglutide (Wegovy’s ingredient) with an amylin-pathway candidate, with FDA review expected in 2026. [27]
- Investor’s Business Daily highlighted momentum around Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 orforglipron, citing supportive trial results and strong sales expectations from at least one analyst, positioning it as a potential maintenance option and a major commercial entrant if approved. [28]
- MarketWatch framed Lilly’s and Novo’s filings as “a new generation” of weight-loss medicines, emphasizing convenience and differentiation as the next phase of competition. [29]
For Pfizer, this is the reality check: by the time YP05002 produces meaningful data (and far before it could reach market), the “standard of care” could have already evolved again.
That’s why Pfizer’s obesity strategy now looks like a portfolio approach—injectables and orals, GLP-1 and non-GLP-1 mechanisms, internal assets plus licensing—and why it’s willing to pay for multiple shots on goal. [30]
Policy and perception risk: vaccines, pricing deals, and margin pressure
Pfizer’s post-pandemic reset is happening in a politicized policy environment—and that can matter to sentiment even when it doesn’t immediately change prescription volumes.
Reuters reported in mid-December that the FDA had no plans to add the most serious “black box” warning to COVID-19 vaccines, after earlier reports suggested such a warning was under consideration. [31]
At the same time, Reuters noted Pfizer signed an agreement with the Trump administration involving Medicaid pricing and tariff relief, which Pfizer said would contribute to price and margin compression in 2026. [32]
Barron’s reported Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla defended the company’s commitment to vaccines amid the shifting policy tone, while reiterating the company’s goal to return to growth late in the decade. [33]
Whether investors agree with Pfizer’s stance or not, the market takeaway is straightforward: COVID-era cash flows are not coming back, and policy uncertainty adds one more variable to a business already managing LOE, restructuring, and heavy pipeline spend. [34]
So is Pfizer stock “dead money”—or set up for a rebound?
That phrase is showing up again for a reason: Pfizer shares are still trading in the mid-$20s range, and the company is asking investors to believe in a multi-year bridge to renewed growth. Pfizer’s own investor materials showed the stock around $25 on Dec. 22. [35]
The bullish framing: value + yield + pipeline optionality
Recent investor commentary has argued Pfizer offers a compelling income-and-turnaround mix, pointing to a high dividend yield and the idea that “pipeline execution” could spark a re-rating if Pfizer strings together credible wins. [36]
The pieces that could support that case are visible:
- Oncology momentum (PADCEV expansion potential, new modalities, continued Seagen/ADC integration) [37]
- Obesity pipeline scale-up (Metsera assets entering late-stage work; YaoPharma pill as an extra shot on goal) [38]
- Cost and portfolio reshaping as Pfizer targets more than $7 billion in annual cost savings by 2027 and reorganizes parts of the business (including hospital and biosimilars, per Reuters). [39]
The skeptical framing: 2026 may look like a “lost year” if catalysts don’t hit quickly
On the other hand, Pfizer’s own numbers show why skeptics exist: revenue is expected to be pressured by COVID declines and LOE, while R&D spend rises to fund programs that may not generate near-term payoff. [40]
Investor’s Business Daily also pointed out that dilution and near-term headwinds can weigh on the stock even when the long-term pipeline story improves—particularly as big deals take time to translate into products. [41]
What to watch next: Pfizer’s most important 2026 signposts
If you’re trying to evaluate the “rebound” thesis using real milestones—not vibes—these are the signposts investors are likely to focus on over the next 12 months:
- Regulatory and presentation timelines for EV-304 (PADCEV + Keytruda) and any filing progress in earlier-stage bladder cancer. [42]
- Metsera pipeline execution, especially Phase 3 initiation and the pace of development for MET-097i and combination strategies. [43]
- YP05002 Phase 1 progress and whether early data supports moving forward (Pfizer structured the deal to manage early-stage risk). [44]
- Policy-driven margin pressure—Medicaid pricing concessions, vaccine-market uncertainty, and broader U.S. drug pricing actions. [45]
- Evidence that Pfizer can outpace the patent cliff with multiple launches or meaningful label expansions before 2028. [46]
Bottom line
Pfizer enters 2026 with an unavoidable near-term drag: fading COVID revenues and a patent cliff that will test the durability of its cash flows. But December’s news flow also shows why the “Pfizer is finished” narrative has softened: the company is stacking tangible oncology wins, buying back into obesity with serious assets, and broadening its pipeline through partnerships—including a new prostate cancer program announced today.
Whether Pfizer stock breaks out of the mid-$20s won’t hinge on one headline. It will hinge on whether Pfizer can turn a busy deal sheet into repeatable clinical and regulatory success—fast enough to convince investors that the post-LOE growth curve is real.
References
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