Updated: December 22, 2025 — 10:23
Natural gas markets are starting the holiday-shortened week with a familiar tug-of-war: weather forecasts that lean warmer (near term) and sturdy supply are keeping prices contained, while LNG logistics, storage trends, and geopolitics continue to inject volatility into regional benchmarks.
Across the major hubs on Dec. 22, Europe’s TTF has edged lower in thin trade, Asia’s spot LNG is sitting near a 20‑month low, and the U.S. market is again revolving around the “big three” drivers—production, demand forecasts, and LNG feedgas flows. [1]
Natural gas price snapshot today: Europe eases, Asia stays soft, the U.S. tracks weather and LNG
Europe: TTF edges lower while storage becomes the headline again
In early Monday trading, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices dipped as ample Norwegian supply and LNG availability counterbalanced expectations for colder weather later across parts of the continent. The Dutch front‑month TTF contract was reported lower around €27.95/MWh (about $9.61/mmBtu) in the morning, with markets quiet ahead of Christmas. [2]
A broader price reference also shows TTF around the high‑€27s on the day—consistent with the idea that Europe is entering late December with prices restrained, not tight, even as winter risk remains. [3]
Asia: spot LNG at a 20‑month low, buyers remain selective
In Asia, spot LNG continues to feel heavy. Industry pricing cited for February delivery into Northeast Asia put the JKM region around $9.50/mmBtu, down from $10/mmBtu the week prior—marking the lowest level since April 2024. Analysts attribute the softness to muted heating demand, ample Pacific supply, and pipeline gas availability (notably supporting China’s balance), keeping spot buying cautious and price-sensitive. [4]
A key detail for traders: multiple assessments highlighted Europe’s LNG pricing versus TTF and pointed to ongoing competition for cargoes as winter deepens—even though Asia is currently the “softer” side of the global LNG equation. [5]
United States: fundamentals dominate—output near records, demand forecasts cool, LNG pull remains elevated
In the U.S., market commentary today is dominated by near‑record production, milder weather expectations into early January, and strong feedgas demand from LNG export terminals. One widely circulated market summary (citing LSEG and storage data) describes U.S. Lower‑48 output around 109.6 bcfd and forecasts demand (including exports) falling from roughly 144.6 bcfd this week to about 127.5 bcfd over the next two weeks as warmth trims heating needs. [6]
At the same time, LNG remains a stabilizer: feedgas flows to major U.S. LNG terminals have been cited around 18.5 bcfd this month—above November’s record in that same commentary—helping cushion bearish weather shifts. [7]
The market’s main driver right now: weather risk is real, but supply is still doing the talking
Weather: warmer near-term, colder risk later
The near-term setup remains broadly milder than normal, reducing the call on gas for space heating in the U.S. and easing immediate price pressure. [8]
In Europe, traders are balancing that same “now vs. later” weather dynamic: current fundamentals read bearish, but the market remains alert to risk factors that could flip sentiment quickly—especially if cold snaps arrive while storage is already lower than recent years. [9]
Storage: Europe’s buffer is thinner than recent winters, the U.S. looks “comfortable” for now
Europe’s storage is a centerpiece today: the latest figure cited puts EU gas storage at about 67.24% full—a level that’s not alarming on its own, but lower than recent years entering the heart of winter, raising the chance Europe must compete harder for LNG cargoes in January and February if temperatures turn colder. [10]
In the U.S., storage data referenced in today’s market write-up showed utilities withdrew 167 bcf for the week ended Dec. 12, leaving inventories around 3,579 bcf—described as slightly above the five‑year average (but below year‑ago levels). [11]
The biggest natural gas news on Dec. 22: policy and geopolitics are moving as fast as weather models
1) Australia announces a major east-coast gas reservation scheme for 2027
One of the most consequential natural gas policy headlines today is out of Australia: the government confirmed a plan that will require east‑coast LNG exporters to reserve a minimum share of gas for domestic use, with a proposed range of 15% to 25%, starting in 2027 (and applying to new contracts). [12]
The move is designed to reduce the risk of price spikes and help address a forecast supply gap on the east coast—an unusual dynamic for a country that is also one of the world’s largest LNG exporters. Reactions are mixed: manufacturers tend to welcome the prospect of more domestic supply, while exporters warn about investment signals and market intervention. [13]
Why it matters globally: Australia is a top-tier LNG supplier into Asia, so any rule that changes how much gas can be exported (even at the margin) is something LNG traders will model into forward balances—especially if winter demand or shipping constraints tighten. [14]
2) Russia’s pipeline gas exports to China are rising—but the revenue gap remains
Reuters reporting today says Russia’s pipeline gas exports to China via Power of Siberia are expected up about 25% in 2025, reaching roughly 38.6–38.7 bcm, slightly above the pipeline’s planned annual capacity. [15]
But the same reporting underscores a central structural reality: greater flows to China do not fully replace the value (and scale) of the lost European market, and pricing remains a major hurdle for future Russian pipeline ambitions such as Power of Siberia 2. [16]
This matters for gas pricing because pipeline flows shape LNG demand indirectly: the more China can secure through pipeline gas at acceptable prices, the more selective it can be in spot LNG markets—one reason Asia’s spot buying has stayed cautious even as winter approaches. [17]
3) A tanker loads LNG from a sanctioned Russian terminal—watch the sanctions “workarounds” narrative
Another major headline today: a tanker named Kunpeng loaded LNG from Russia’s Portovaya LNG terminal, which is under Western sanctions, based on ship-tracking data cited by Reuters (Kpler and LSEG). The vessel reportedly arrived Dec. 18 and departed with cargo on Dec. 21—described as the first time this tanker has lifted LNG from a designated project. [18]
Market significance: even relatively small sanctioned volumes can matter at the margin in winter—especially in Europe, where LNG is now a core balancing mechanism. The broader issue is whether enforcement tightens, stays stable, or weakens in practice via transfers and “creative” routing. [19]
4) U.S. LNG expansion narrative takes a hit: Energy Transfer suspends Lake Charles LNG development
On the corporate side, the U.S. LNG growth story is facing a reality check. Reuters reports that Energy Transfer has suspended development of its Lake Charles LNG export project in Louisiana, citing cost pressures, market conditions, and a preference to focus on pipeline projects. The planned project capacity was reported around 16.45 million tonnes per annum. [20]
The company’s own announcement echoed that strategic pivot—suspending development to prioritize a backlog of pipeline investments, while remaining open to discussions with third parties. [21]
Why it matters today: LNG markets price long-term capacity expectations years ahead. Any meaningful delay, cancellation, or de‑risking of U.S. export growth can tighten future balances—especially if demand surprises higher (AI-driven power demand, industrial recovery, or faster coal-to-gas switching). [22]
Forecasts and forward-looking analysis: what’s next for natural gas after Dec. 22?
Near-term (days to weeks): Europe’s LNG pull vs. weather, U.S. demand downgrades vs. export strength
Europe’s setup is straightforward but unstable: prices are currently subdued by supply, yet storage is lower than recent winters and the market is explicitly watching whether colder weather in early 2026 forces incremental LNG procurement. [23]
In the U.S., the next big directional catalyst remains weather model shifts. The current posture—warmer near-term, lower demand projections—keeps the market sensitive to any change that turns the outlook colder, because production is high but LNG demand has also been running strong. [24]
Medium-term (2026–2027): banks see a price path that encourages supply growth—and more demand
One notable forward view comes from Goldman Sachs (reported by Reuters): the bank forecasts European TTF averaging roughly €29/MWh in 2026 and €20/MWh in 2027, while expecting U.S. gas prices that “incentivize” production growth at around $4.60/mmBtu in 2026 and $3.80/mmBtu in 2027. [25]
That framing is important: the market is effectively searching for a level that keeps enough supply coming (especially from the U.S.) without crushing demand—an equilibrium that is increasingly shaped by LNG export capacity decisions, like the Lake Charles pause, and by policy choices, like Australia’s domestic reservation plan. [26]
What to watch after 10:23 today: the “four screens” gas traders will keep open
- Weather revisions (U.S., Europe, Northeast Asia): small shifts can cascade into big demand changes in winter. [27]
- LNG flows and freight: Atlantic and Pacific shipping rates, arbitrage signals, and whether Europe keeps pulling U.S. cargoes. [28]
- Storage trajectories: Europe’s storage percentage and the U.S. storage cadence as winter progresses. [29]
- Geopolitics and policy: Russian flows to China, sanctioned cargo movements, and Australia’s reservation scheme implementation details. [30]
Bottom line for natural gas today
As of Dec. 22, 2025 (10:23), the natural gas story is not a single narrative—it’s a set of interlocking ones:
- Europe is calm on the surface (prices easing) but increasingly dependent on LNG as storage trends matter more. [31]
- Asia is soft enough to keep spot LNG near multi‑month lows, with buyers disciplined and waiting for cheaper levels or clearer cold signals. [32]
- The U.S. is still the swing supplier, with production near record levels and LNG exports acting as the shock absorber against mild weather. [33]
- Policy and geopolitics—from Australia’s domestic reservation plan to Russian pipeline and sanctioned LNG headlines—are reintroducing structural uncertainty into what would otherwise be a weather-driven market. [34]
References
1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. tradingeconomics.com, 4. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 5. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 6. in.investing.com, 7. in.investing.com, 8. in.investing.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.tradingview.com, 11. in.investing.com, 12. minister.dcceew.gov.au, 13. www.theguardian.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.businesswire.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. in.investing.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. in.investing.com, 28. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 29. www.tradingview.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.tradingview.com, 32. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 33. in.investing.com, 34. minister.dcceew.gov.au
