Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) heads into the final stretch of 2025 with the market asking a deceptively simple question: Is Amazon about to re-accelerate—or just get more expensive to run?
As of Monday, December 22, 2025 (15:31 UTC), AMZN traded around $227.64, after opening near $228.50 and moving between $227.00 and $229.42 intraday.
That price action—calm on the surface—sits on top of a pile of big, noisy storylines investors are trying to price in at once: possible OpenAI investment talks, an AI leadership shake-up, new AWS chips and models, and a fresh push into ultra-fast delivery that could reshape how Amazon competes with retailers (and how much it costs to do so). [1]
Below is what’s driving Amazon stock on 22.12.2025, what the latest forecasts say, and what to watch next.
AMZN stock price and performance in late 2025: steady price, bigger expectations
AMZN’s year has been defined less by dramatic collapses and more by relative underperformance: the stock is up only modestly versus late 2024, while broader U.S. indexes have had stronger runs. One market data provider shows Amazon up about +3.9% since 12/31/2024, alongside a wide trading range in 2025 that included a low around $161 and a high around $259. [2]
Today’s market tone is also supportive: U.S. stocks started the holiday-shortened week higher, helped by renewed “AI trade” optimism and a benign inflation backdrop—useful context for megacap tech names like Amazon. [3]
But Amazon’s story is more specific than “tech is up.” The stock’s next decisive move likely depends on whether investors become more confident in two things:
- AWS growth durability in an AI-heavy world
- Returns on Amazon’s surging capital expenditures (CapEx)
The biggest Amazon news moving the narrative on December 22, 2025
1) OpenAI talks: potential deal would be a loud signal for AWS and Trainium
The most market-grabbing report in recent days: Amazon is in talks to invest about $10 billion in OpenAI, in discussions that Reuters described as “very fluid.” The same report says the potential investment could value OpenAI at more than $500 billion. [4]
Why AMZN investors care:
- OpenAI is a compute vacuum, and AWS wants those workloads.
- Reuters also reported OpenAI signed a $38 billion deal to buy cloud services from AWS in November—so the relationship is already commercially meaningful. [5]
- The Information (cited by Reuters) said OpenAI plans to use Amazon’s Trainium chips—exactly the kind of third-party validation AWS needs as it tries to reduce dependence on Nvidia’s AI GPUs. [6]
The investor anxiety is the flip side: Reuters noted investors are watching for signs that AI demand is tailing off or that massive spending won’t pay back fast enough. [7]
2) Amazon’s AI leadership restructuring: DeSantis takes a bigger mandate
Amazon also announced a significant reshuffle in its AI org: Peter DeSantis (a long-time AWS executive) will lead a new unit overseeing AI models, custom silicon (including Graviton and Trainium), and quantum computing, while Rohit Prasad is set to depart at year-end. [8]
Strategically, this reads like Amazon trying to do three things at once:
- unify model + chip + infrastructure roadmaps,
- speed up product delivery,
- and tell investors: “We’re not just buying AI—we’re building the stack.”
That matters because Wall Street is increasingly valuing AI winners not by announcements, but by credible execution loops: chips → capacity → customer adoption → margins.
3) Ultra-fast delivery and “rush pickup”: Amazon is attacking convenience again
Amazon is also pushing deeper into “instant commerce”:
- Amazon Now is being tested with deliveries in about 30 minutes or less for thousands of essentials and grocery items in parts of Seattle and Philadelphia, according to Amazon. [9]
- Reuters reported Amazon is developing a “rush” pickup service that could let customers pick up orders from Amazon stores within one hour, with the ability to place a unified order across online and physical inventory, with a pilot targeted for early 2026. [10]
This is not just a retail feature—it’s a margin question. Ultra-fast delivery can drive higher purchase frequency and retention, but it can also increase fulfillment complexity and last-mile costs if the economics aren’t tight.
That’s why market commentary today frames ultra-fast delivery as a potential new catalyst for a stock that’s been drifting. [11]
What Amazon’s latest financials say about the engine under the hood
The most recent major earnings snapshot (Q3 2025) showed Amazon still has multiple growth levers firing:
- Net sales:$180.2 billion, up 13% year over year [12]
- AWS revenue:$33.0 billion, up 20% year over year [13]
- Operating income:$17.4 billion (with notable special charges) [14]
Amazon said Q3 operating income included $2.5 billion related to an FTC legal settlement and $1.8 billion of estimated severance costs; excluding those charges, operating income would have been $21.7 billion, per the company. [15]
The CapEx headline: Amazon is spending like an infrastructure company (because it is)
Here’s the number investors keep circling in red ink: on Amazon’s Q3 earnings call transcript, the company said it expects full-year cash CapEx of about $125 billion in 2025, and expects that amount to increase in 2026. [16]
The SEC filing detail underneath that is just as striking:
- Cash capital expenditures:$34.2 billion in Q3 2025
- $89.9 billion for the first nine months of 2025 [17]
Amazon explicitly tied much of that to technology infrastructure (majority supporting AWS growth) and fulfillment capacity. [18]
In plain English: Amazon is betting that demand for cloud + AI capacity will be strong enough to justify a buildout that looks more like a national infrastructure program than a typical corporate investment cycle.
Near-term outlook: Q4 revenue guidance
After Q3, Reuters reported Amazon projected Q4 net sales between $206 billion and $213 billion, and highlighted that AWS accounts for a large share of operating income. [19]
That Q4 window matters because it frames holiday-quarter retail performance and the strength of AWS demand heading into early 2026.
AWS product momentum: new chips, new models, and a broader “AI factory” pitch
AWS used its recent re:Invent cycle to push hard on the idea that it can offer an end-to-end AI stack:
- Amazon highlighted Trainium3 UltraServers, Bedrock AgentCore, and AI Factories, alongside new Graviton processors. [20]
- AWS also announced Amazon Nova 2 foundation models in Amazon Bedrock, positioning them as “reasoning-capable” models with strong price-performance. [21]
- Bloomberg reported AWS is releasing its latest AI chip, Trainium3, as it tries to compete more directly with Nvidia and other hyperscalers’ silicon strategies. [22]
This matters for AMZN stock because AWS doesn’t need to “win AI” in the abstract—it needs to win in the profit-and-loss statement:
- If custom chips reduce cost per inference/training unit, AWS margins can hold up even while prices fall.
- If adoption lags, Amazon risks building expensive capacity ahead of demand.
Analyst forecasts on December 22, 2025: still bullish, but the market wants proof
Wall Street remains broadly positive on Amazon, with consensus targets implying meaningful upside from current levels—though the exact numbers vary by data provider:
- One tracking set shows an average target around $284.70 with a “Strong Buy” consensus. [23]
- Another compilation lists an average target around $295.50 from a larger analyst set. [24]
Today also brought fresh “rating/target” chatter. TipRanks reported that Bank of America Securities analyst Justin Post maintained a Buy rating and raised his price target to $303. [25]
And “mainstream investor-facing” research channels are still pushing the message that sell-side ratings skew positive on AMZN. [26]
The key point about price targets in 2025
The market is no longer handing out premium multiples just because a company says “AI.”
Targets increasingly hinge on:
- AWS growth rate and backlog conversion,
- operating margin trajectory,
- and whether CapEx intensity begins to stabilize (or at least looks more productive).
The bull case for Amazon stock: three engines, one flywheel
A realistic bullish thesis for AMZN into 2026 usually looks like this:
AWS re-acceleration becomes durable
Amazon reported AWS growth of 20% in Q3 2025. [27]
If AI demand stays strong and AWS continues scaling capacity, investors may reward Amazon with renewed confidence that AWS can compound from a massive base.
Advertising keeps scaling as a higher-margin lever
Amazon’s advertising business has become a central part of the story, and industry forecasters keep modeling growth. For example, eMarketer discussed Amazon’s U.S. ad revenue outlook in the context of Q3 and broader ad market dynamics. [28]
(Advertising matters because it can lift overall profitability even if retail margins remain pressured.)
Retail logistics becomes a product again
Ultra-fast delivery and one-hour pickup aren’t just “cool.” They’re an attempt to widen Amazon’s moat in convenience—especially as Walmart, Instacart, and others push harder. [29]
The bear case: spending, regulation, and the “AI accountability era”
Here’s what skeptics focus on:
CapEx risk: the bill arrives before the benefits
Amazon’s stated $125B cash CapEx outlook for 2025—and expectation of more in 2026—raises the bar for execution. [30]
If AI infrastructure returns take longer than expected, free cash flow narratives can wobble.
Regulatory and legal overhangs aren’t going away
Amazon agreed to a $2.5 billion settlement with the FTC related to Prime enrollment/cancellation practices, including $1 billion civil penalty and $1.5 billion in consumer redress affecting an estimated 35 million consumers, per the FTC. [31]
Reuters also detailed the settlement mechanics and eligibility details reported by the FTC. [32]
Separately, Amazon continues to face broader scrutiny over marketplace practices and product responsibility. Reuters recently highlighted Amazon’s exposure to product-liability lawsuits and its dispute with the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission over potential liability standards. [33]
The “AI deal” skepticism
Even potentially bullish developments—like OpenAI partnering widely—come with investor side-eye about whether AI demand is being inflated by circular financing arrangements and aggressive buildouts. Market commentary has raised exactly that concern in the context of OpenAI infrastructure partnerships. [34]
What to watch next for AMZN stock
The next major catalysts for Amazon shares are likely to be:
- Clarity on OpenAI talks (do discussions progress, and do they include meaningful Trainium adoption?) [35]
- AWS growth + margin trajectory as AI workloads scale and pricing pressure evolves
- CapEx efficiency signals—not just “we’re spending,” but “here’s what we’re getting for it” [36]
- Evidence that ultra-fast delivery expands profitably, not just operationally [37]
- Regulatory headline risk, including product safety and consumer protection compliance momentum [38]
Amazon has always been a company that builds first and explains later. In 2026, the market looks less interested in the explanation—and more interested in the spreadsheet.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.barchart.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.aboutamazon.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. s2.q4cdn.com, 13. ir.aboutamazon.com, 14. ir.aboutamazon.com, 15. ir.aboutamazon.com, 16. finance.yahoo.com, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.aboutamazon.com, 21. aws.amazon.com, 22. www.bloomberg.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. finviz.com, 27. ir.aboutamazon.com, 28. www.emarketer.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. finance.yahoo.com, 31. www.ftc.gov, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.marketwatch.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.sec.gov, 37. www.aboutamazon.com, 38. www.ftc.gov
