Tesla, Inc. stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) is trading near record territory on Monday, December 22, 2025, as investors weigh a fresh wave of autonomy hype against very real legal, regulatory, and demand headwinds. At the center of today’s move: the Delaware Supreme Court decision restoring Elon Musk’s 2018 Tesla compensation plan—now valued at roughly $139 billion—plus ongoing headlines around Tesla’s robotaxi testing narrative. [1]
As of 15:14 UTC, TSLA was at $487.66, up about 1.34% on the day after touching an intraday high of $498.70.
Below is what’s driving Tesla stock today, what analysts are forecasting into year-end and early 2026, and what investors are watching next.
Tesla stock price today: TSLA flirts with all-time highs in a holiday-shortened week
Tesla shares are getting a tailwind from broader risk-on sentiment in U.S. equities as markets start a holiday-shortened week with lighter expected trading volumes. Reuters reported U.S. markets opened the week higher as tech continued rebounding on renewed enthusiasm around AI, while investors looked ahead to economic data later this week. [2]
Within that backdrop, Tesla stood out: Reuters noted TSLA jumped to an all-time high in today’s session after the pay-package ruling. [3]
Why that matters for Tesla stock: TSLA has become one of the market’s most “narrative-sensitive” megacaps—especially tied to autonomy/robotaxi expectations—so legal clarity around Musk’s control and incentives can move the stock even when near-term auto fundamentals are under pressure. [4]
The big catalyst: Delaware Supreme Court restores Musk’s 2018 Tesla pay package
The biggest single “hard news” driver behind Tesla stock today is legal.
Reuters reported that Delaware’s Supreme Court restored Musk’s 2018 Tesla compensation plan, reversing a 2024 ruling that had rescinded it. The 2018 plan—once valued around $56 billion—has ballooned with TSLA’s share price and is now worth about $139 billion based on Tesla’s stock price at the close following the ruling. [5]
What the ruling changes (and why markets care)
Key points from Reuters:
- The court said the earlier rescission remedy was improper and inequitable, noting it would leave Musk “uncompensated” for years of work. [6]
- If Musk exercises all the options tied to the 2018 package, his ownership stake would rise from about 12.4% to 18.1% (on an expanded share base). [7]
- The 2018 plan grants options to buy about 304 million Tesla shares at a discounted price if milestones were met (which Tesla achieved). [8]
- Tesla shareholders have also approved a newer pay plan that Reuters said could reach $878 billion if targets are met. [9]
In plain English: investors tend to read this as “Musk is more locked in, with fewer governance question marks in the near term,” which can reduce one category of uncertainty—especially meaningful for a stock priced for big future outcomes.
The robotaxi narrative is still the engine of Tesla’s “premium” valuation
Even with today’s legal catalyst, the market’s Tesla obsession remains autonomy.
Reuters recently described how much of Tesla’s valuation is linked to optimism around self-driving technology and humanoid robot ambitions, even though most revenue and profit still come from selling EVs. [10]
What’s new on robotaxis heading into Dec. 22
A Reuters report from December 15 said Musk posted that Tesla was testing robotaxis with no occupants in the car, after earlier operations in Austin included a human “safety monitor” in the passenger seat and ran in a geo-fenced area using modified Model Y vehicles with Full Self-Driving. [11]
That’s the kind of headline that can act like lighter fluid on TSLA sentiment—because investors aren’t just pricing “car company earnings,” they’re pricing an “autonomy platform” possibility.
Waymo, the blackout, and the perception battle
A San Francisco power outage over the weekend became an unexpected marketing moment in the broader robotaxi competition. Reuters reported the outage caused traffic disruption and separately noted Musk said Tesla’s robotaxis were unaffected. [12]
Barron’s framed the incident as highlighting the different technical approaches between Alphabet’s Waymo and Tesla, noting Waymo paused service during the outage while Tesla’s approach relies heavily on cameras and its driver-assistance stack (with Tesla’s service still in testing). [13]
Important reality check: “Unaffected during an outage” is a fascinating anecdote, not proof that any system is “solved.” Robotaxi scaling is ultimately gated by (1) safety performance, (2) regulatory approval, and (3) operational reliability across edge cases—three topics that can swing sentiment violently in either direction.
Tesla Energy gets fresh headlines: Germany battery cell expansion and a UK storage project
Tesla isn’t only cars and robotaxis. Battery production and grid storage remain meaningful long-duration growth levers—and they’re getting new headlines in this same late-December news cycle.
Germany: Tesla targets up to 8 GWh/year of battery cell output starting in 2027
Reuters reported Tesla is setting conditions to produce up to 8 gigawatt hours of battery cells per year at its Grünheide (near Berlin) gigafactory starting in 2027, investing an additional “three-digit million” euro amount and bringing total cell-factory investment close to €1 billion. [14]
Tesla also emphasized vertical integration—cells to vehicles in one location—while acknowledging economic challenges of making cells in Europe versus China and the U.S. [15]
UK: Matrix Renewables signs a full EPC agreement with Tesla for battery storage
A Reuters item published today reported Matrix Renewables signed a full EPC agreement with Tesla for a standalone battery energy storage project in the UK, and that all planning conditions had been discharged with full consent secured to start construction. [16]
Why TSLA investors care: even if robotaxis dominate the headlines, Tesla’s storage business is one of the more straightforward ways for the company to benefit from rising grid-battery demand. Reuters analysis has described strong global tailwinds for energy storage manufacturing and deployment, driven by grid needs and data center buildouts. [17]
The biggest regulatory risk headline: California DMV targets Tesla’s Autopilot/FSD marketing
While Tesla stock rallies on autonomy optimism, regulators are still very much pushing in the other direction: “Don’t overpromise.”
On December 16, the California DMV announced it found Tesla violated state law by misleadingly using the terms “autopilot” and “Full Self-Driving Capability” in marketing. The DMV decision adopted an administrative law judge’s findings that the terms were misleading, while modifying penalties. [18]
Key elements from the DMV release:
- The ALJ proposed suspending Tesla’s manufacturing license and dealer license for 30 days, but the DMV reduced penalties. [19]
- The DMV imposed a permanent stay of the manufacturer-license suspension and gave Tesla 60 days to take action regarding its use of the term “autopilot.” If Tesla does not address the issue, it becomes subject to a 30-day suspension of its dealer license after the 60-day window. [20]
- The DMV said Tesla previously used language suggesting “no action required by the person in the driver’s seat,” while stating vehicles could not then—and cannot now—operate as autonomous vehicles. [21]
- The DMV noted Tesla discontinued the term “Full Self-Driving Capability” and now uses “Full Self-Driving (Supervised)” to specify driver supervision. [22]
Stock impact logic: TSLA is priced with an autonomy “option value.” Any regulatory action that constrains marketing, rollout pace, or consumer adoption is a direct pressure point on that option value—especially if it hits a major market like California.
Forecasts and analyst views on Tesla stock: bullish long-term, messy near-term
Wall Street remains split—often dramatically—because Tesla is being valued as both a cyclical automaker and a potential autonomy/AI platform.
Analyst price targets: wide range, with the average below today’s price
Several consensus trackers today show a familiar picture: the average target is meaningfully below TSLA’s current trading level, while a handful of bullish outliers pull the “high target” far above.
- MarketBeat lists Tesla with a consensus “Hold” rating and an average price target of $404.14. [23]
- Investing.com shows an average 12‑month target of $397.43, with a high estimate of $600 and low estimate of $120 (40 analysts), and a “Neutral” consensus distribution across buy/hold/sell. [24]
- On the bullish end, Mizuho lifted its target to $530 (per Investopedia’s reporting), while Wedbush has been cited with a Street-high target of $600 in the same coverage. [25]
How to interpret this: Tesla is one of those rare stocks where consensus averages can look bearish even during a rally—because many analysts refuse to “chase” momentum without clearer evidence that autonomy/robotaxi revenue is real and scalable.
Delivery forecasts into Q4: consensus vs. Deutsche Bank’s below-consensus call
The most immediate fundamental catalyst investors are watching is Tesla’s quarterly deliveries report (typically early January).
- A Motley Fool preview cited FactSet expectations of roughly 450,000 deliveries in Q4, and about 1.67 million deliveries for full-year 2025—implying a decline versus 2024. [26]
- Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu expects Q4 2025 deliveries of about 405,000 vehicles, according to Investing.com—below consensus and down 14% year-over-year and 19% quarter-over-quarter. [27]
- The same Deutsche Bank note cited by Investing.com models 1.62 million deliveries for 2025 versus consensus around 1.66 million, and also forecasts pressure on auto gross margin (excluding credits) to about 14.4% for the quarter. [28]
So the near-term setup is a classic Tesla split-screen:
- Narrative tailwind: robotaxi progress + Musk governance clarity
- Fundamental headwind: deliveries and margins potentially trending softer than the market hopes
Under the hood: demand warning signs in the U.S. and Europe are still flashing
A TSLA rally doesn’t erase the demand debate.
U.S.: November sales hit a near four-year low (per Cox estimates)
Reuters reported Tesla’s U.S. sales dropped nearly 23% in November to about 39,800 vehicles (per Cox Automotive estimates provided to Reuters), the lowest since January 2022, despite Tesla rolling out cheaper “Standard” variants after the U.S. $7,500 EV tax credit ended in late September. [29]
Reuters also reported overall U.S. EV sales fell more than 41% in November, while Tesla’s market share rose to 56.7%—suggesting Tesla may be “winning” share in a shrinking pool. [30]
Europe: market share pressure continues
Reuters reported Tesla’s German registrations fell 20.2% year-over-year in November to 1,763 vehicles, while BYD registrations surpassed Tesla in that month, and Tesla’s January–November Germany registrations were down 48.4% year-over-year. [31]
Separately, Reuters has described Tesla’s broader European sales pressure and intensifying competition, noting Visible Alpha expectations for Tesla global deliveries to decline and highlighting Tesla’s limited mass-market lineup against a rising wave of competitors. [32]
What to watch next for Tesla stock (TSLA)
Tesla stock is moving on a combination of legal clarity and autonomy momentum, but the next leg—up or down—likely depends on whether the company can align the story with measurable execution.
Here are the main near-term swing factors investors are tracking:
- Q4 deliveries (early January): Will Tesla land closer to ~450k (consensus-style expectations) or closer to ~405k (Deutsche Bank’s call)? [33]
- Robotaxi proof points: Expansion pace, safety metrics, and regulatory milestones—especially if testing without occupants continues and broadens. [34]
- California DMV compliance timeline: Tesla has 60 days to address the “autopilot” term issue under the DMV decision to avoid dealer-license suspension risk. [35]
- Energy and storage momentum: Execution on Germany’s battery cell plan (longer-term) and follow-through on grid storage deployments (nearer-term headlines like the UK project). [36]
Bottom line
Tesla stock is behaving like a high-stakes referendum on two futures happening at once:
- a near-term EV business navigating demand softness and competitive pressure, and
- a longer-term autonomy/robotaxi thesis that, if validated, could reshape the company’s economics.
Today’s price action is mostly about the second future—turbocharged by a court ruling that reinforces Musk’s incentive structure and perceived control. [37]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.dmv.ca.gov, 19. www.dmv.ca.gov, 20. www.dmv.ca.gov, 21. www.dmv.ca.gov, 22. www.dmv.ca.gov, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investopedia.com, 26. www.fool.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.fool.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.dmv.ca.gov, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com
