Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) is back in the spotlight on Monday, December 22, 2025, as investors weigh a wave of White House drug‑pricing agreements, a fast‑moving “most‑favored‑nation” (MFN) pricing push, and what it could all mean for Amgen’s earnings power in 2026. The stock traded higher in Monday’s session, with market data showing shares around $331.
While the headlines are centered on drug prices, the market’s reaction has been notably measured: several analyst notes published today suggest these deals may be designed to reduce political and tariff uncertainty more than they materially compress pharma profits—at least in the near term. [1]
Below is a full, investor‑focused breakdown of today’s Amgen stock news, the latest forecasts and analyst views, and the key catalysts and risks shaping the AMGN outlook.
What’s driving Amgen stock on Dec. 22, 2025
1) The White House drug‑pricing deal: discounts + direct purchase + tariff relief
The biggest narrative behind AMGN’s renewed attention is the December 19 announcement that the Trump administration reached separate drug‑pricing agreements with nine major drugmakers, including Amgen. [2]
Key elements investors are focusing on:
- Discounted “cash pay” drug prices via direct‑to‑consumer pathways and the planned TrumpRx.gov platform
- MFN‑style pricing commitments aimed at aligning certain U.S. prices with other developed markets
- Tariff relief for three years tied to commitments around U.S. manufacturing expansion (as described in multiple analyses) [3]
In today’s market commentary, this combination is being framed as a potential “pressure release valve” for large pharma: it addresses drug‑pricing politics while also easing tariff threats that had been hanging over the sector. [4]
2) Amgen’s specific commitment: Aimovig and Amjevita at $299/month
For Amgen specifically, Reuters reported that the company will add Aimovig (migraine) and Amjevita (adalimumab biosimilar used in inflammatory conditions) to its direct‑to‑patient approach at $299 per month—a level described as roughly 60% to 80% below list price, depending on the product. [5]
Amgen’s broader direct‑purchase strategy is not new in 2025. In October, Reuters reported Amgen launched direct‑to‑consumer U.S. sales of Repatha at $239 per month for cash‑paying patients through its portal, a move widely interpreted as a response to political pressure to lower drug prices. [6]
Why this matters for AMGN investors: the market is trying to estimate whether these lower “cash” prices will (a) expand access and boost volume, (b) remain financially immaterial because most U.S. patients use insurance, or (c) create new reference points that eventually pressure negotiated net prices.
Why analysts say the impact on profits may be limited (for now)
Today’s most pointed analysis is that the agreements may have minimal net financial impact because:
- Many of the drugs selected already carry large rebates/discounts in U.S. channels
- Most insured patients pay via copays/co‑insurance, not list price, which can limit immediate volume shifts into cash channels
- The “headline” discounts often reference list prices, while net prices (after rebates) can be far lower [7]
BioPharma Dive summarized the prevailing Wall Street view today: pricing deals may be “carefully selected” and unlikely to change the growth outlook in a dramatic way, while the benefits (tariff relief and reduced policy uncertainty) may be more meaningful to sentiment. [8]
BioSpace, also publishing today, described analyst takes along similar lines—calling out the stabilization of pricing and tariff uncertainty as a reason for more constructive sector momentum into 2026. [9]
The MFN policy overhang: bigger than one deal
Even if the voluntary agreements prove modest for earnings, MFN pricing remains a structural policy risk investors are actively repricing.
CMS models: MFN proposals for Medicare Parts B and D
A legal/regulatory analysis published by Goodwin highlights that on December 19, 2025, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released two MFN‑linked initiatives:
- GLOBE (Medicare Part B)
- GUARD (Medicare Part D)
The same analysis notes these models—if finalized—could add mandatory rebates on certain high‑cost, single‑source drugs and could take effect in 2026, with Federal Register publication expected Dec. 23, 2025 and a comment deadline described as Feb. 23, 2026. [10]
Investor takeaway: Voluntary deal headlines can boost sentiment, but the regulatory machinery behind MFN concepts is still developing—and could become more material depending on scope, enforcement, and litigation outcomes. [11]
Amgen stock forecasts: where Wall Street sees AMGN heading
Consensus rating and average price target
A MarketBeat roundup published today reports:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Coverage: 22 analyst firms
- Average 12‑month price target:$332.85 [12]
That average target is close to where AMGN traded Monday (around $331), implying the Street sees Amgen as closer to “fairly valued” than “deeply discounted” at current levels—though individual targets vary widely.
Recent analyst actions highlighted in today’s coverage
MarketBeat’s Dec. 22 summary also lists multiple recent analyst moves, including:
- Morgan Stanley cutting its target to $304 with an Equal Weight rating (reported as dated Dec. 12)
- HSBC reiterating Buy with a $425 target (reported as Dec. 10)
- Piper Sandler raising a target to $381 with an Overweight rating (reported as Nov. 14)
- Truist initiating with Hold and $318 (reported as Nov. 24) [13]
How to read this: AMGN’s forecast range reflects a classic Amgen debate—whether the stock should trade like a steady dividend compounder, or whether pipeline optionality (obesity, oncology) deserves a higher multiple.
Fundamentals check: the latest earnings picture behind AMGN
A major reason AMGN has held up relatively well into year‑end is that the company’s most recent reported quarter (Q3 2025) came in strong.
Reuters reported in early November that Amgen:
- Beat Wall Street expectations on revenue and adjusted EPS
- Reported Q3 revenue of $9.56B (up 12% YoY) versus analyst expectations around $8.97B
- Delivered adjusted EPS of $5.64 versus estimates around $5.01
- Raised full‑year outlook to $20.60–$21.40 adjusted EPS on $35.8B–$36.6B revenue [14]
Notably, Reuters also pointed to product‑level divergence:
- Repatha sales rose 40% to $794M in Q3 on higher demand
- Enbrel sales fell 30% to $580M, tied in part to Medicare plan pricing dynamics [15]
Pipeline and catalyst watch: the growth engines that can re‑rate AMGN
1) Obesity: MariTide remains a 2026 narrative driver
Amgen’s obesity candidate MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide) is still one of the most consequential “option value” components in the stock.
- Reuters reported Amgen expected additional mid‑stage MariTide data before year‑end (per its November earnings coverage). [16]
- Earlier in 2025, Amgen highlighted Phase 2 results presented at the American Diabetes Association meeting, describing up to ~20% average weight loss at 52 weeks in people with obesity/overweight (with and without type 2 diabetes), plus cardiometabolic improvements. [17]
- The New England Journal of Medicine published Phase 2 results on once‑monthly maridebart cafraglutide, reinforcing clinical credibility and investor interest. [18]
At the same time, investors are not ignoring tolerability and discontinuation concerns raised in earlier reporting on MariTide’s side‑effect profile and trial drop‑offs—an area the company has been working to address through dosing strategy. [19]
2) Oncology: IMDELLTRA receives traditional FDA approval in ES‑SCLC
Amgen also scored a meaningful oncology win late in 2025: IMDELLTRA (tarlatamab‑dlle) received full (traditional) FDA approval for adults with extensive‑stage small cell lung cancer after platinum‑based chemotherapy.
- Amgen’s press release states the Phase 3 DeLLphi‑304 trial showed a 40% reduction in risk of death versus chemotherapy and extended median overall survival. [20]
- The FDA’s own notice confirms the traditional approval for tarlatamab‑dlle (Imdelltra) and notes it previously received accelerated approval in 2024. [21]
This kind of conversion from accelerated to traditional approval tends to matter for commercial durability—and for how the market models long‑term oncology revenue streams.
3) Rare disease / immunology: UPLIZNA expands into generalized myasthenia gravis
In December, Amgen announced FDA approval of UPLIZNA for adults with generalized myasthenia gravis (anti‑AChR and anti‑MuSK antibody positive). [22]
Pipeline breadth is part of why AMGN often attracts “defensive growth” investors: even while some mature products face pricing and lifecycle pressure, new approvals and line extensions help offset that drag.
Dividend and shareholder return: a key pillar for Amgen stock
Amgen remains a dividend anchor in large‑cap biotech. A PR Newswire release dated Dec. 9, 2025 said Amgen’s board declared a $2.52/share dividend for Q1 2026, payable March 6, 2026 to holders of record Feb. 13, 2026. [23]
For many investors, AMGN’s valuation is not just about the next catalyst—it’s also about whether the company can sustain dividend growth while funding late‑stage trials, manufacturing investment, and any business development.
Risks AMGN investors should keep on the radar into 2026
- Policy execution risk on MFN pricing
Voluntary deals are one thing; CMS model implementation and legal outcomes are another. The details of which drugs are included, how benchmarks are calculated, and how manufacturers respond could influence sector multiples in 2026. [24] - Cash‑pay pricing as a new “reference point”
Even if today’s discounts are aimed at uninsured or high‑deductible patients, investors are watching whether lower cash prices become a broader negotiating benchmark over time. [25] - Pipeline clinical risk (especially obesity)
MariTide’s promise (monthly dosing, meaningful weight loss) must be weighed against tolerability and discontinuation dynamics that have already shaped investor expectations. [26] - Product mix and pricing pressure in mature franchises
Amgen’s results show it can grow key brands like Repatha, but also that older products can decline quickly under price and channel pressure. [27]
Bottom line: AMGN’s “policy reset” meets a catalyst‑heavy 2026 setup
As of Dec. 22, 2025, the AMGN story is being pulled by two forces at once:
- A policy reset narrative (drug‑pricing deals + tariff relief + direct purchasing) that has improved sentiment across pharma, with multiple analysts suggesting limited near‑term earnings disruption. [28]
- A pipeline catalyst narrative (obesity, oncology, immunology) that can still meaningfully shift the long‑term growth curve—and, by extension, valuation. [29]
For investors, the practical question is whether Amgen can keep delivering on core earnings and dividends while successfully navigating MFN‑style reforms—and whether upcoming clinical and commercial milestones can justify upside beyond today’s consensus price targets. [30]
References
1. www.biopharmadive.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.biopharmadive.com, 8. www.biopharmadive.com, 9. www.biospace.com, 10. www.goodwinlaw.com, 11. www.goodwinlaw.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.prnewswire.com, 18. www.nejm.org, 19. www.statnews.com, 20. www.amgen.com, 21. www.fda.gov, 22. www.amgen.com, 23. www.prnewswire.com, 24. www.goodwinlaw.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.prnewswire.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.biopharmadive.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com
