Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) stock is pulling back on Monday, December 22, 2025, after a powerful run that pushed the discount retailer near (and recently to) fresh 52-week highs earlier this month. Shares were trading around $122–$123, down roughly 4% on the day in late-morning/early-afternoon action—putting DLTR on lists of notable decliners even as broader markets held up. [1]
That dip doesn’t come with a single, obvious “breaking headline” catalyst. Instead, it looks like a classic tension point for momentum retail names: upgraded earnings models and price targets on one side, valuation and “how sustainable is traffic?” debates on the other.
Below is what’s new as of 22.12.2025, what Wall Street is forecasting now, and what investors are likely watching next.
DLTR stock price action on December 22, 2025
Dollar Tree shares opened the session around the upper-$120s and slid toward the low-$120s intraday, with the stock quoted near $122.76 (-3.98%) around mid-afternoon (data timestamped 3:13 p.m.). [2]
Context matters here: DLTR has been trading close to its 52-week high (~$132.45–$132.48), reached earlier in December. [3]
When a stock is priced for a “clean execution story,” even small doubts—holiday volatility, profit-taking into year-end, or concerns about traffic trends—can produce sharp down days without a dramatic news trigger.
The big “today” update: earnings forecasts get marked higher again
One of the most current items dated December 22, 2025 is a MarketBeat write-up summarizing a Zacks Research note that raises longer-dated EPS expectations for Dollar Tree.
According to that report, Zacks lifted its estimates to roughly:
- FY2026 EPS: $5.70
- FY2027 EPS: $6.66
- FY2028 EPS: $7.51 [4]
The same coverage also reiterates the company’s recent quarterly beat—$1.21 adjusted EPS versus $1.09 consensus—and points to management’s Q4 EPS guide of $2.40–$2.60. [5]
Takeaway: the “earnings power” narrative is still moving in the right direction, at least in the models. But that doesn’t guarantee smooth day-to-day trading when the stock has already rallied hard.
Dollar Tree’s latest earnings: Q3 fiscal 2025 beat, higher outlook, heavy buybacks
Dollar Tree’s most important recent fundamental catalyst was its Q3 fiscal 2025 report (quarter ended November 1, 2025), now presented as continuing operations because Family Dollar is treated as discontinued operations following the sale. [6]
Key Q3 numbers (continuing operations)
From the company’s earnings release:
- Net sales:$4.7 billion (+9.4% year over year) [7]
- Same-store sales (Dollar Tree segment):+4.2% [8]
- What drove comps:average ticket +4.5%, traffic -0.3% [9]
- Gross margin:35.8%, up 40 bps [10]
- Diluted EPS:$1.20 (adjusted $1.21) [11]
The company also described a margin mix that will sound familiar to anyone following discount retail: pricing actions and lower freight helped, while factors like tariffs, markdowns, and shrink were headwinds. [12]
Updated fiscal 2025 guidance
Dollar Tree raised/updated its full-year fiscal 2025 view to:
- Net sales:$19.35B to $19.45B
- Comparable sales growth:+5.0% to +5.5%
- Adjusted diluted EPS:$5.60 to $5.80 [13]
Buybacks are doing real work here
One of the most market-relevant elements: Dollar Tree’s capital return program.
- In Q3, it repurchased 4.1 million shares for $399 million (including excise tax). [14]
- After quarter-end, it bought another 1.7 million shares for $176 million. [15]
- As of Nov. 1, it still had $2.0 billion remaining on its repurchase authorization. [16]
If you’re trying to understand why analysts keep revisiting their models, buybacks are a big part of the answer: fewer shares outstanding can lift EPS even if operating margins improve only gradually.
The strategic engine: multi-price rollout and Dollar Tree 3.0 conversions
Dollar Tree’s core transformation story in 2025 has been its multi-price strategy—expanding price points beyond the historic “everything’s $1” vibe, and converting stores to what management calls Dollar Tree 3.0.
In its Q3 release, the company said it:
- Opened 106 new Dollar Tree stores
- Converted about 646 stores to the Dollar Tree 3.0 multi-price format [17]
This matters for stockholders because multi-price does two things at once:
- It lets Dollar Tree carry items it couldn’t profitably sell at a fixed low price, and
- It can raise the average ticket—which is exactly what showed up in Q3 comps. [18]
Who’s shopping at Dollar Tree now? Higher-income customers are a real theme
One of the most widely discussed (and investor-relevant) signals from Dollar Tree’s recent commentary: the chain is attracting more middle- and higher-income shoppers, not just lower-income households.
In the Q3 earnings call transcript, CEO Mike Creedon said the company had three million more households shop Dollar Tree in Q3 versus the prior year’s Q3, and that roughly 60% of those incremental shoppers came from households earning over $100,000. [19]
For the stock, this is a big deal because it supports a “bigger total addressable market” story: if Dollar Tree can keep its core value shoppers and increase trip frequency among newer, higher-income shoppers, it strengthens the case for durable comps. [20]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: bullish tops, but a cautious consensus
Here’s the fascinating part of the DLTR setup right now: recent targets skew higher, but the overall Street consensus still isn’t screaming “buy.”
Recent notable price-target moves (December 2025)
A cluster of firms raised targets in December as the post-earnings narrative improved:
- Truist: raised target to $149 (from $136), kept Buy; argued traffic concerns may be tied to temporary store disruptions and sees meaningful earnings growth potential. [21]
- Wells Fargo: raised target to $145 (from $125), kept Overweight. [22]
- Telsey Advisory: raised target to $150 (from $135), kept Outperform, pointing to multi-price expansion as a multi-year growth driver. [23]
With DLTR around $122–$123 today, those targets imply roughly ~18% to ~22% upside—if the bull case plays out.
But the consensus view is “mixed”
MarketBeat’s compilation shows:
- Consensus rating:Hold
- Average 12-month target: about $118.83 (slightly below where DLTR is trading today) [24]
This split—some high-conviction bulls with elevated targets, alongside a broader “hold” consensus—is exactly the kind of setup where the stock can whip around on relatively small data points (traffic, margin, inventory, shrink).
The 2026 outlook debate: growth runway vs. “show me” execution
Dollar Tree has already given the market a taste of its 2026 ambition.
Reuters reported that in October the company forecast fiscal 2026 profit above Wall Street estimates and said it expected earnings growth by a high-teen percentage, while also discussing tariff mitigation via sourcing shifts and price actions. [25]
Meanwhile, commentary carried by Investing.com notes management targets a 12%–15% adjusted EPS CAGR for 2026–2028, which bulls view as achievable with store standards improvements, better space allocation, and continued buybacks. [26]
The bear case (and why DLTR can still drop 4% on a random Monday) tends to focus on:
- Whether sales are increasingly price/ticket-driven rather than traffic-driven [27]
- Whether multi-price adds complexity that could pressure store execution or the brand’s “value” perception over time [28]
- Persistent cost pressures (tariffs, labor, shrink) that can eat into margin gains [29]
What to watch next for Dollar Tree stock
If you’re tracking DLTR into year-end and early 2026, the next catalysts are pretty straightforward—and very measurable:
- Comparable sales quality: Do comps stay mid-single-digit, and does traffic stabilize? [30]
- Multi-price execution: How quickly can Dollar Tree convert stores and maintain strong in-stock and shopability? [31]
- Margins vs. headwinds: Watch gross margin, shrink, and tariff-related commentary. [32]
- Buyback pace: With substantial authorization remaining, repurchases can continue to influence EPS optics. [33]
- Next earnings timing: Market calendars list Dollar Tree’s next earnings update in early March 2026, though dates can change. [34]
Bottom line on Dec. 22, 2025: DLTR is in a tug-of-war—momentum vs. valuation
Dollar Tree stock is acting like a company that has earned renewed optimism—Q3 beat, higher guidance, aggressive buybacks, and a clearer “one brand, one focus” strategy post-Family Dollar sale. [35]
But today’s slide is the reminder that when a stock trades near its highs, the market demands proof, not promises: traffic trends, margins, and the real-world impact of multi-price conversions will decide whether DLTR’s 2025 rally becomes a sustained 2026 uptrend—or just an impressive rebound that needs time to digest. [36]
References
1. 247wallst.com, 2. markets.businessinsider.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. corporate.dollartree.com, 7. corporate.dollartree.com, 8. corporate.dollartree.com, 9. corporate.dollartree.com, 10. corporate.dollartree.com, 11. corporate.dollartree.com, 12. corporate.dollartree.com, 13. corporate.dollartree.com, 14. corporate.dollartree.com, 15. corporate.dollartree.com, 16. corporate.dollartree.com, 17. corporate.dollartree.com, 18. corporate.dollartree.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. corporate.dollartree.com, 28. www.tipranks.com, 29. corporate.dollartree.com, 30. corporate.dollartree.com, 31. corporate.dollartree.com, 32. corporate.dollartree.com, 33. corporate.dollartree.com, 34. markets.businessinsider.com, 35. corporate.dollartree.com, 36. www.marketwatch.com
