December 22, 2025 — Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is back in the spotlight as its stock trades near a one-year peak, powered by a fast-moving mix of autonomy headlines, a major software rollout, and rising optimism that the upcoming R2 midsize SUV can unlock scale. Still, the rally is colliding with a tougher EV demand backdrop after federal incentives ended, and Rivian remains a cash-burning automaker racing to prove it can turn technology into durable profits.
Below is what’s moving Rivian stock today, what Wall Street is forecasting, and what investors are watching next—based on the latest reporting and analysis available on December 22, 2025.
Rivian stock price action on Dec. 22: Near a 52-week high, but volatile
Rivian shares set a 52-week high around $22.68 and have climbed sharply over the last week, according to market data cited by Investing.com. [1]
In Monday’s session (Dec. 22), daily trading data showed the stock opened at $22.45, reached $22.68, dipped to $21.68, and traded with volume around 32.38 million shares, finishing the day down about 3.38%. [2]
That combination—new highs alongside big intraday swings—reflects a market trying to reprice Rivian not just as an EV manufacturer, but as a “software-defined vehicle” and autonomy platform story.
The biggest catalyst: Rivian’s autonomy push—and a new paid software product
Rivian’s December momentum traces directly back to its Autonomy & AI Day announcements. In a Reuters report, Rivian introduced its first custom self-driving chip (the Rivian Autonomy Processor) and unveiled Autonomy+, a driver-assistance package priced at $2,500 (one-time) or $49.99 per month. [3]
Reuters also reported Rivian’s chip is produced with TSMC, and that Rivian is shifting away from reliance on Nvidia for this part of its stack—an important signal that the company is leaning harder into vertical integration, a strategy investors often reward when it’s credible. [4]
Just as important: Rivian framed its autonomy roadmap as a path toward more advanced capabilities in 2026, including “eyes-off” ambitions, while also positioning Autonomy+ as a near-term recurring revenue lever. [5]
Why the market cares: For an automaker still working toward sustained profitability, software subscription revenue—if it scales—can support better gross margins than hardware alone.
Software update 2025.46: “Universal Hands-Free” expands—and Digital Key arrives
The autonomy narrative became more tangible with Rivian’s latest over-the-air update.
Electrek reported that software update 2025.46 begins rolling out features tied to Rivian’s autonomy strategy, including Universal Hands-Free driving and a Digital Key for certain Gen 2 owners (compatible with iPhone/Apple Watch and supported Android devices). The update also introduces “Drive Styles” (including Mild/Medium/Spicy) that adjust the driving behavior of assisted features. [6]
Rivian’s own materials also emphasize that its hands-free capability has expanded dramatically—moving from a limited set of mapped highways to availability across millions of miles of road where lane markings are clear (with driver attention monitoring still required). [7]
Rivian Stories also highlighted the Digital Key rollout as part of the December update cycle. [8]
Investor takeaway: This is the kind of product shift that can change how investors model Rivian’s long-term economics—if customers convert after trials and if the feature set remains competitive.
Analysts are upgrading Rivian—and 2026 is the word you keep hearing
A key reason Rivian is trading at multi-year-best levels is that some prominent analysts are turning more constructive.
Barron’s reported that Baird analyst Ben Kallo upgraded Rivian to Buy (from Hold) and raised the price target to $25 (from $14), citing the expected launch of R2 in 2026 and Rivian’s autonomy initiatives as a differentiator. [9]
Investors Business Daily also reported that Wedbush analyst Dan Ives raised his Rivian price target to $25, calling 2026 an “inflection year,” with the R2 launch and Rivian’s autonomy roadmap as central pillars of the bull case. [10]
The Daily Upside echoed the theme, summarizing how the stock drew upgrades even as the broader EV market cools, highlighting the Baird upgrade and the Wedbush target raise that followed. [11]
But the consensus forecast is still cautious
Despite the upgrades, broader consensus price-target data still sits meaningfully below today’s trading range. One widely followed compilation shows a Hold consensus rating with an average target around $15.90, and a high target near $25. [12]
Barron’s similarly noted that only a minority of analysts rate Rivian a Buy and that the average price target sits around the mid-teens—well below where shares have been trading during this rally. [13]
What that gap can mean: Either (a) analysts are late to adjust to the new narrative, or (b) the stock has run ahead of fundamentals and is pricing in a cleaner R2 execution than Wall Street is prepared to assume.
The R2 launch: why Rivian’s entire story is compressing into 2026
Rivian’s current lineup is premium-priced, while R2 is positioned as a mass-market step down in price and up in potential volume.
- 24/7 Wall St. summarized Rivian’s plan to introduce the R2 around $45,000 and argued the R2 targets a broader audience than Rivian’s current vehicles. [14]
- Car and Driver has reported that early R2 production is expected at Rivian’s Normal, Illinois plant, while the planned Georgia factory is associated with a later production timeline (reported as 2028). [15]
Rivian is already investing to support that ramp. Reuters reported Rivian plans to spend $120 million on a supplier park near its Normal, Illinois facility to cut logistics and warehousing costs and help increase production when R2 joins the lineup. [16]
Reuters also reported Rivian paused construction on its Georgia plant to conserve cash and accelerate the R2 plan, while still envisioning eventual production there later in the decade. [17]
Bottom line: If R2 production and demand ramp smoothly, it can change Rivian’s volume trajectory—and potentially its unit economics.
The macro backdrop: EV demand got tougher after tax credits ended
Even as Rivian stock rallies, the market it sells into is facing real headwinds.
Reuters reported that Rivian narrowed its 2025 delivery forecast to 41,500–43,500 vehicles as the industry braced for weaker demand following the lapse of federal EV tax credits—after Congress moved to abolish the $7,500 leasing credit that many automakers leaned on to support sales. [18]
Cox Automotive’s December commentary described how buyers rushed earlier in the year before credits expired at the end of September, and how policy-driven volatility shaped the market. [19]
InsideEVs, citing Cox Automotive estimates, reported U.S. EV sales are on track to fall about 2.1% in 2025 (to roughly 1.275 million units), which would be the first year-over-year decline since 2019. [20]
Why this matters for Rivian: Rivian is still scaling—so a softer EV demand environment can make a clean ramp harder, especially without incentive tailwinds.
Rivian’s fundamentals: improving in places, still loss-making overall
Rivian’s recent earnings performance shows both progress and pressure.
Reuters reported that Rivian beat third-quarter revenue expectations with $1.56 billion in revenue versus $1.5 billion estimated, aided by deliveries pulled forward before incentives ended. It also posted an adjusted net loss of $0.65 per share, narrower than expected. [21]
On guidance, a Rivian SEC filing (press release exhibit) stated the company’s outlook included:
- 40,000–46,000 deliveries (guidance at that time),
- adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.0–$2.25 billion, and
- capex of $1.8–$1.9 billion. [22]
Meanwhile, Reuters reported management commentary that tariff-related costs could ease, with Rivian expecting costs to fall to “a few hundred dollars” per vehicle as policy changes take effect (down from about $2,000). [23]
Interpretation: Rivian is tightening execution and pursuing margin levers (cost reductions, logistics improvements, software revenue), but the scale of expected losses underscores that the turnaround is not “done”—it’s still in progress.
Other current Rivian news investors are tracking today
Board change: Rose Marcario to step down
In a Form 8‑K filed with the SEC, Rivian disclosed that Rose Marcario resigned from its board effective January 1, 2026, and that the board will reduce in size from eight to seven members. [24]
Recall: delivery vans seat belt issue
Reuters reported Rivian is recalling 34,824 electric delivery vehicles in the U.S. related to a seat belt system issue, and said it was not aware of incidents or injuries. The company also described an over-the-air software update enabling detection of seat belt misuse and said it will inspect/replace components as needed. [25]
Why these matter: Board changes can signal governance shifts as Rivian enters a pivotal product cycle, and recalls—while common in autos—can affect sentiment and costs.
Rivian stock outlook: the bull case vs. the bear case
Bull case: Rivian becomes a scaled EV + software platform
Supporters of the rally are increasingly leaning on a few core points:
- R2 could expand Rivian’s addressable market dramatically at a lower price point. [26]
- Autonomy+ introduces a new monetization path through subscriptions, with Rivian positioning its pricing as accessible. [27]
- Custom silicon and in-house autonomy development could improve cost control and product differentiation over time. [28]
- Major analysts raising targets to the mid‑$20s has helped reset narrative expectations for 2026. [29]
Bear case: the stock is pricing in best-case execution too early
Skeptics point to:
- Continued large losses in guidance, with profitability still a longer-dated question. [30]
- EV demand cooling after federal incentives ended, making volume growth harder. [31]
- Heavy competition in the midsize SUV segment (where R2 will land), making it harder to win share without pricing pressure. [32]
- Autonomy is expensive, crowded, and regulated—meaning timelines can slip and monetization can take longer than investors hope. [33]
What to watch next for Rivian (RIVN) investors
If you’re following Rivian stock into year-end and early 2026, the next catalysts are relatively clear:
- R2 execution signals
Any update on R2 timing, supply chain readiness, and the production ramp at Normal will likely move the stock. [34] - Autonomy+ adoption and rollout pace
Investors will look for evidence that hands-free driving expansion converts into paid subscriptions and improves margin mix. [35] - Demand in a post-incentive EV market
Rivian’s deliveries will be watched closely against an industry backdrop shaped by policy and demand volatility. [36] - Cost discipline and cash burn
Guidance for EBITDA losses remains large, so progress on cost reductions and operational leverage is crucial. [37]
The takeaway: Rivian’s rally is real—but so is the execution bar
On December 22, 2025, Rivian stock is trading like a company entering a make-or-break product cycle. The 52-week high and analyst upgrades show investors are willing to believe in a 2026 story built around R2 and paid autonomy software. [38]
But Rivian still operates in an EV market facing weaker demand after incentives expired, and the company’s own guidance underscores that profitability is not imminent. [39]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. electrek.co, 7. rivian.com, 8. stories.rivian.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.investors.com, 11. www.thedailyupside.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. 247wallst.com, 15. www.caranddriver.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.coxautoinc.com, 20. insideevs.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. 247wallst.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.barrons.com, 30. www.sec.gov, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. 247wallst.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. rivian.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.sec.gov, 38. www.investing.com, 39. www.reuters.com
