Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) finished Monday’s session modestly lower and then barely moved in after-hours trading—setting up a “macro-first” watchlist for Tuesday morning, when a cluster of major U.S. economic releases could quickly change the tone for retailers and consumer stocks.
COST closed around $850 (down roughly 0.66% on the day) and traded fractionally lower after the bell, near $849.32 in late after-hours activity. [1]
That near-flat after-hours tape matters because it suggests there wasn’t a major company-specific headline hitting the stock after 4 p.m. ET. Instead, investors appear to be carrying forward the same debate that weighed on COST earlier in the day: Costco’s premium valuation versus a market that is still swinging between “risk-on” optimism and renewed sensitivity to fundamentals like membership trends.
Costco stock price check: where COST stands after the bell
- Regular session (Mon, Dec. 22): COST ended near $850, down about 0.66%.
- After hours: COST traded near $849.32, off about 0.08% in late after-hours updates. [2]
Meanwhile, the broader market backdrop leaned constructive. U.S. stocks closed higher to start the holiday-shortened week, with gains across most sectors and continued strength in tech; Reuters also flagged that the VIX posted its lowest close in about a year, a signal of calmer market pricing—at least for now. [3]
So why did Costco lag while indexes rose? Today’s narrative was less about one breaking headline and more about the valuation-and-expectations bar Costco has to clear.
The big Costco debate resurfacing today: premium valuation meets “show me” sentiment
A widely circulated analyst note from Guggenheim reiterated a Neutral stance on Costco on Monday, arguing that investor attention has shifted back toward “softening metrics” (including membership-related focus) at a time when Costco still trades at a rich multiple. Guggenheim pointed to COST trading around a 46.2 P/E, “significantly above industry averages,” and said valuation sensitivity has risen as investors reassess what they’re willing to pay for steady (but not immune) retail fundamentals. [4]
Guggenheim also highlighted the recent divergence versus the broader market:
- COST down ~11% over the past six months versus the S&P 500 up ~12% over the same span (as described in the note). [5]
The key takeaway for Tuesday isn’t “one firm is right.” It’s that the market’s mood has changed: Costco is no longer being treated like a bond substitute that can ignore normal retail fluctuations. Even small signs of pressure—whether in traffic, renewal rates, or expense leverage—can matter more when the stock is priced at a premium. [6]
Mixed analyst signals: bullish targets still exist, but the spread is widening
One reason COST can feel “quiet” on the surface while still being volatile is that Wall Street’s positioning around the name has become more two-sided:
- Guggenheim stayed Neutral on Monday, emphasizing valuation risk. [7]
- The same note referenced more optimistic views elsewhere, including TD Cowen reiterating a Buy rating with a $1,175 target (and citing operational investment themes like AI), plus UBS maintaining a Buy rating—while noting Costco’s valuation had come down from prior levels. [8]
- On the bearish end, the note also referenced Roth/MKM moving to Sell with a $769 target, citing concerns such as weakening metrics and paid membership trends. [9]
For investors heading into Tuesday, that distribution matters. When targets and ratings spread out like this, the stock can become more reactive to macro data and to any incremental Costco datapoints—because different camps are already primed to interpret the same signal differently.
Today’s Costco headline with real momentum: gold over $4,400 and Costco’s bullion “cheat code”
One of the most talked-about Costco business angles circulating today had nothing to do with groceries or gas: precious metals.
Business Insider reported that gold has surged to record highs above $4,400/oz, and that Costco’s gold and silver bullion offerings have become a powerful e-commerce traffic and revenue driver—often selling out quickly and prompting purchase limits. The report also cited analyst estimates of around $200 million in monthly bullion sales, framing the category as a high-demand “headline product” that can lift online engagement even if margins are slim. [10]
This matters for COST shareholders for two reasons:
- It’s an incremental online growth lever. Costco has been pushing digitally enabled sales and member engagement, and “viral” categories can pull new customers into the ecosystem.
- It reinforces the membership value proposition. Limited-availability items (especially in high-interest categories like gold) can strengthen the perception that membership access pays for itself.
Just as importantly, the broader market backdrop supports why this story is resonating: gold and silver also featured prominently in Monday’s market coverage as metals prices jumped during holiday-thin trading. [11]
Fundamentals refresher: what Costco most recently reported (and why it still sets expectations)
Even though today’s after-hours move was small, the market is still trading Costco through the lens of the most recent earnings update.
In its Q1 fiscal 2026 operating results (released Dec. 11, for the quarter ended Nov. 23), Costco reported:
- Net sales:$65.98 billion, up 8.2% year over year
- Comparable sales:+6.4% total company (with digitally-enabled comps +20.5%)
- Net income:$2.001 billion
- Diluted EPS:$4.50
- Warehouses:923 globally (including 633 in the U.S. and Puerto Rico) [12]
Those numbers are strong, but they also raise the bar: Costco needs to keep delivering dependable comp growth, disciplined expenses, and membership resilience to justify a premium multiple—especially if the market starts rewarding cyclicality and “value” again.
What to know before the market opens Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025
Tuesday morning is set up to be less about Costco headlines and more about macro data—the kind that can move retail, consumer discretionary, yields, and risk appetite quickly.
1) Major U.S. economic reports hit before and shortly after the open
Investopedia flagged that several reports delayed by the government shutdown are due this week, led by a first look at third-quarter GDP and other key indicators. Tuesday’s schedule includes:
- GDP (Q3 initial estimate)
- Durable goods orders (October)
- Industrial production & capacity utilization (delayed reports)
- Consumer confidence (December) [13]
Barron’s similarly highlighted Tuesday’s data cluster—GDP, durable goods, and consumer confidence—as key market drivers for the holiday-shortened week. [14]
Why it matters for COST: Costco is often treated as a “quality defensive” retailer. If GDP and confidence come in hot, markets sometimes rotate toward more cyclical exposure. If data disappoints, Costco can regain its defensive appeal—but only if valuation concerns don’t dominate.
2) Expect thinner liquidity into Christmas (bigger swings can happen on less volume)
Reuters noted trading volume was already lighter on Monday and may thin further as the holiday approaches; it also reiterated the U.S. market schedule: early close Wednesday and closed Thursday. [15]
NYSE’s official calendar confirms markets close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. [16]
Thin liquidity is a tactical issue: it can exaggerate moves in both directions, especially if a big macro print surprises.
3) Markets stay open Dec. 24 and Dec. 26 despite federal closures
If you’re planning around holiday staffing and execution: Reuters reported that major U.S. exchanges said they will remain open as scheduled on Dec. 24 and Dec. 26, even after a federal-government closure directive for those dates—though Dec. 24 remains an early close. [17]
The next catalysts on Costco’s calendar (worth circling now)
Tuesday is a macro day—but investors also track Costco’s company-specific cadence closely because monthly sales updates can move the stock.
Here are the next major, confirmed Costco IR events:
- December Sales Results:Jan. 7, 2026 (1:15 PM PT) [18]
- Annual Shareholders’ Meeting:Jan. 15, 2026 (2:00 PM PT) [19]
- Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call:Mar. 5, 2026 (2:00 PM PT) [20]
For near-term trading, the Jan. 7 sales release is the one that can reset the “traffic/renewals/value perception” narrative quickly—especially after today’s renewed focus on membership and competitive intensity.
Bottom line for COST heading into Tuesday’s open
COST’s after-hours action on Dec. 22 looks more like a pause than a pivot: the stock is digesting a valuation-focused analyst debate while the broader market heads into a holiday-shortened week with major macro data due Tuesday morning.
If you’re watching Costco into the open, the checklist is straightforward:
- Macro first: GDP + durable goods + consumer confidence can quickly reprice retail sentiment. [21]
- Liquidity second: thin holiday trading can amplify moves. [22]
- Costco narrative third: valuation scrutiny (Neutral notes) versus continued long-term bull arguments (scale, operational investments, and sticky membership economics). [23]
- Headline tailwinds: the “gold at Costco” e-commerce storyline remains a live attention driver as metals hit records. [24]
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.businessinsider.com, 11. apnews.com, 12. investor.costco.com, 13. www.investopedia.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.nyse.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. investor.costco.com, 19. investor.costco.com, 20. investor.costco.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.businessinsider.com
