London — December 23, 2025 — NatWest Group Plc stock (LSE: NWG, NYSE ADR: NWG) is back in the spotlight after pushing to a new 52‑week high of 648.80p in today’s trading session, extending a powerful rerating that has lifted the shares by roughly 62% over the past year. [1]
The rally is happening against a backdrop that should, in theory, make investors more cautious about bank profitability: the Bank of England has just cut rates to 3.75%, mortgage pricing competition is intensifying, and the market is trying to handicap what “normal” earnings look like once the UK exits the high‑rate era. [2]
So why is NatWest climbing anyway? The short answer is that investors are still liking what they see in the mix of capital returns (buybacks), margin resilience (helped by hedging), and earnings expectations—and the news flow on December 23 gives a clean snapshot of the key moving parts.
NatWest share price today: where NWG is trading and what the market is signaling
As of early trading today, NatWest shares were indicated around the mid‑640p level after touching 648.80p. In Financial Times market data, the session showed Open 648.80 / High 648.80 / Low 645.80, with a bid near 646.00p and offer near 646.60p (data delayed). [3]
Google Finance similarly showed NatWest around the mid‑640p area this morning. [4]
Two things matter about this move for anyone tracking NatWest Group Plc stock:
- Price action is confirming momentum: a fresh 52‑week high tends to pull in both benchmark buyers and trend-following capital.
- Valuation is no longer “deep cheap”: NatWest is still not priced like a growth stock, but after a strong run, upside increasingly depends on execution (and not just “rates went up”).
Buyback watch: NatWest repurchases more shares under its ongoing programme
The most concrete piece of NatWest‑specific news tied to today’s date is another update in its steady drumbeat of repurchases.
NatWest announced it purchased 882,353 ordinary shares on December 22, 2025 as part of its ongoing buyback activity. The shares were acquired at a volume‑weighted average price of 643.06p, with a high of 645.40p and low of 640.20p, executed on the London Stock Exchange. [5]
The company’s broader buyback programme context matters here: NatWest previously announced a 2025 buyback programme of up to £750 million, commencing July 28, 2025, and scheduled to end no later than February 13, 2026 (with an option to extend to March 13, 2026 if market disruption prevents normal trading on some days). NatWest also said it intends to cancel repurchased shares. [6]
For shareholders, that means the near‑term “floor under the stock” story remains intact: buybacks don’t guarantee gains, but they do create a persistent source of demand—especially when executed at scale and paired with a strong capital position.
The big macro variable: Bank of England rate cuts and what they mean for NatWest
The Bank of England’s December decision is the macro headline hanging over all UK bank stocks, including NatWest.
In its December 2025 summary and minutes, the BoE confirmed the Monetary Policy Committee voted 5–4 to cut Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%, noting CPI inflation had fallen to 3.2% and that policy is likely to continue on a “gradual downward path,” though future decisions are becoming a “closer call.” [7]
Reuters coverage underscored the cautious tone from officials—suggesting the BoE wants flexibility and remains alert to inflation persistence risks even after the cut. [8]
For NatWest stock analysis, rate cuts usually trigger the same investor question: will net interest margins get squeezed? That’s where the details—and NatWest’s balance sheet structure—start to matter.
Mortgage price war: good for volumes, messy for margins
UK mortgage pricing has turned more competitive, with multiple lenders cutting rates in anticipation of (and after) the BoE move. MoneySavingExpert reported rate reductions across lenders, explicitly referencing NatWest among those cutting some mortgage rates. [9]
Meanwhile, market coverage has highlighted headline deals such as 3.75% five‑year fixed offers from NatWest during the competitive push. [10]
Why this matters to NWG shareholders:
- More competition can boost loan volumes (and help banks win customers).
- But it can also compress new business spreads, especially if lenders chase market share aggressively.
- The stock market tends to reward banks that can thread the needle: grow balances without giving away too much margin.
NatWest forecasts: what the analyst consensus expects for income, margins and profitability
NatWest’s own published analyst consensus (models as at November 7, 2025) gives a clear baseline for what the market expects over 2025–2027.
Key consensus expectations include:
- Group net interest margin (NIM): 2.33% (2025E), 2.46% (2026E), 2.54% (2027E) [11]
- Total income: £16.532bn (2025E), £17.519bn (2026E), £18.451bn (2027E) [12]
- Operating profit before impairment losses: £8.222bn (2025E), £8.990bn (2026E), £9.720bn (2027E) [13]
- Impairment losses: £731m (2025E) rising to £972m (2026E) and £1.097bn (2027E) [14]
- Return on tangible equity (RoTE): 18.5% (2025E), 18.0% (2026E), 18.6% (2027E) [15]
- Earnings per share (EPS): 65.3p (2025E), 70.5p (2026E), 79.2p (2027E) [16]
- UK base rate (end of period): 3.78% (2025E), 3.46% (2026E), 3.42% (2027E) [17]
Also notable: the consensus shows ordinary shares in issue (period end) falling from 7,958m (2025E) to 7,651m (2026E) and 7,352m (2027E)—directionally consistent with continued buybacks reducing the share count over time. [18]
A quick valuation reality check: what the current price implies
Using today’s indicated price zone around 646p [19] and the consensus 2025E EPS of 65.3p, NatWest is trading at roughly 9.9x 2025 earnings (simple price/EPS math). [20]
That’s not “expensive” in a global banking context—but it’s also not the ultra‑discounted valuation NatWest traded at during periods of government ownership overhang and higher uncertainty.
This is why the next leg of the NWG share price story is likely to hinge on:
- whether margins really can hold up during rate cuts, and
- how aggressively NatWest can keep distributing capital without weakening buffers.
Analyst price targets for NatWest stock: modest upside after the rally
On sell-side expectations, aggregated analyst targets are pointing to single‑digit upside from current levels—suggesting the stock isn’t widely seen as a “double from here” idea after its 2025 surge, but still looks acceptable on a risk‑adjusted basis.
- Investing.com lists an average 12‑month price target of £663.25, with a high of £765 and low of £550, and an overall “Buy” skew in recommendations. [21]
- MarketBeat reports a consensus price target of 666.67p, with a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating (4 buys, 2 holds in its dataset). [22]
The message investors should take from this isn’t “targets are destiny” (they aren’t), but rather: expectations have risen, and NatWest likely needs either (a) better‑than‑expected profitability through the rate‑cut cycle or (b) bigger‑than‑expected capital returns to materially outperform from here.
The nerdy-but-important margin story: why NatWest may expand NIM even as rates fall
Here’s a detail that keeps showing up in serious NatWest analysis: the bank’s structural interest rate hedge.
In a December 9, 2025 update, S&P Global Ratings described NatWest’s hedge as smoothing net interest income over a multiyear period, with a 2.5‑year average duration, and noted the hedge yield is set to continue growing into the late 2020s as NatWest reinvests maturing positions at higher rates. S&P added that it expects further net interest margin expansion over its two‑year outlook horizon even as the Bank of England is set to lower its policy rate further. [23]
That’s a big deal for NatWest Group Plc stock because it counteracts the simplistic “rates down = bank margins down” narrative. If margins are more resilient than the market fears, a lot of the earnings base looks sturdier.
Capital strength: NatWest’s stress test results reinforce the distribution story
Another pillar supporting capital return confidence is regulatory resilience.
NatWest disclosed the Bank of England’s 2025 stress test results showing that, under the modeled severe scenario, the group’s low‑point CET1 ratio would have been 11.1% (vs 13.6% actual at December 2024) and the low‑point Tier 1 leverage ratio would have been 4.7% (vs 5.0% actual). Both stayed “significantly ahead” of the stress minimum requirement, meaning no strategic management actions would have been required. [24]
S&P’s December update also pointed to capitalization strength, noting NatWest reported a 14.2% CET1 ratio at September 2025 and intends to operate within management’s 13%–14% target range over the medium term. [25]
For investors, this is the scaffolding behind buybacks: a bank can only keep shrinking its share count if regulators (and rating agencies) remain comfortable with capital buffers.
Other live headlines affecting NatWest: legal risk and “agentic AI” trials
Two additional news threads relevant to NatWest stock today are less about quarterly numbers and more about risk management and optionality.
1) UK mass forex lawsuit blocked
Reuters reported that major banks—including NatWest—successfully blocked a £2.7 billion mass lawsuit in the UK tied to alleged foreign exchange market manipulation. The UK Supreme Court upheld an earlier decision not to certify the claim in the proposed opt‑out format. [26]
While this doesn’t erase all conduct risk (banks never truly get to live in that kind of fantasyland), it does reduce one specific litigation overhang.
2) “Agentic AI” and the next wave of digital banking
Reuters also reported British banks, including NatWest, are working with the FCA on customer‑facing trials of agentic AI expected to launch in early 2026, while regulators flag new governance and stability risks from autonomous systems. [27]
This is one of those stories that can be either:
- a genuine productivity lever (better service at lower cost), or
- a headline risk machine (if autonomy outruns controls).
Either way, investors should assume the market will begin pricing “operational execution” more heavily as AI moves from pilots to customer reality.
From bailout to fully private: the ownership overhang is gone
A major structural change in 2025—and one that still echoes in NatWest share price behavior—was the end of UK government ownership.
HM Treasury announced on May 30, 2025 that the government sold its remaining shares, completing the exit and ending nearly 17 years of public ownership that began with the 2008–2009 crisis intervention. [28]
Earlier in 2025, Reuters had already flagged the government stake falling to single digits and no longer being the largest shareholder, reflecting how quickly the overhang was shrinking before the final exit. [29]
Why this matters for NatWest Group Plc stock now: private ownership typically gives management more flexibility around capital return frameworks and removes the political optics that can complicate buybacks and dividend policy.
What to watch next: the 2026 catalyst checklist for NatWest stock
With NWG at/near fresh highs, investors are likely to focus on a tighter set of “tell me what breaks the story” variables:
- Bank of England path: the speed and depth of cuts matters—but so does the shape of the curve (which affects hedging and reinvestment dynamics). [30]
- Mortgage competition: whether pricing pressure is transient (seasonal/competitive) or a longer margin squeeze. [31]
- Credit quality and impairments: consensus already bakes in higher impairment losses into 2026–2027; the question is whether reality is better or worse than that glidepath. [32]
- Buyback pace into early 2026: the £750m programme end-date is approaching in the first quarter of 2026, so investors will watch for what replaces it. [33]
- Tech/regulatory execution: agentic AI pilots could become a differentiator—or a governance stress test. [34]
NatWest Group Plc stock has entered 2026 setup mode: the easy rerating from “overhang + uncertainty” toward “private + distributing capital” has already done a lot of work. From here, NWG looks increasingly like a debate over durable earnings power through rate cuts, plus the market’s confidence that management can keep returning capital without sacrificing resilience.
References
1. markets.ft.com, 2. www.bankofengland.co.uk, 3. markets.ft.com, 4. www.google.com, 5. www.investegate.co.uk, 6. www.investegate.co.uk, 7. www.bankofengland.co.uk, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.moneysavingexpert.com, 10. www.thetimes.com, 11. investors.natwestgroup.com, 12. investors.natwestgroup.com, 13. investors.natwestgroup.com, 14. investors.natwestgroup.com, 15. investors.natwestgroup.com, 16. investors.natwestgroup.com, 17. investors.natwestgroup.com, 18. investors.natwestgroup.com, 19. markets.ft.com, 20. markets.ft.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. investors.natwestgroup.com, 24. www.stocktitan.net, 25. investors.natwestgroup.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.gov.uk, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.bankofengland.co.uk, 31. www.moneysavingexpert.com, 32. investors.natwestgroup.com, 33. www.investegate.co.uk, 34. www.reuters.com
