COPENHAGEN — Ørsted A/S stock is back in the spotlight on December 23, 2025, after the U.S. government paused leases and issued stop-work orders for five major offshore wind projects under construction along the East Coast—an unusually aggressive move that hits Ørsted’s U.S. growth story right where it’s most vulnerable: late-stage projects with big capital already in the water. [1]
For investors, this is not just another headline in the offshore wind culture war. It’s a direct test of Ørsted’s 2025 “repair and refocus” strategy: protect the balance sheet, finish the construction portfolio, and rebuild confidence—while U.S. policy risk keeps trying to kick the ladder away. [2]
What happened: the U.S. pauses leases for five offshore wind projects
U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the Department of the Interior is pausing leases for all five large-scale offshore wind projects currently under construction, citing national security concerns—specifically, claims that turbine blades and reflective towers could create radar “clutter” and interfere with defense systems. [3]
The projects named by U.S. officials and widely reported include:
- Vineyard Wind 1 (Avangrid + Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners)
- Revolution Wind (Ørsted)
- Sunrise Wind (Ørsted)
- Empire Wind 1 (Equinor)
- Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (Dominion Energy) [4]
The administration has framed the pause as time to work with developers and states to assess whether the alleged risks can be mitigated. Industry groups and several state and Democratic officials have publicly pushed back, arguing the projects previously underwent extensive reviews. [5]
Why Ørsted stock is especially exposed: Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind were ordered to suspend activity
Ørsted confirmed that the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) ordered both Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind to suspend all activities on the outer continental shelf for 90 days, and that BOEM reserved the right to extend the suspension. [6]
Ørsted also said it is evaluating all options, including legal action, and is engaging with U.S. authorities alongside its partners. [7]
Revolution Wind: late-stage project, already a repeat target
- Capacity: 704 MW
- Ownership: 50/50 JV (Ørsted + Global Infrastructure Partners’ Skyborn Renewables, per trade reporting)
- Offtake: Power purchase agreements covering Rhode Island and Connecticut allocations
- Status: Previously hit by a stop-work order in August; construction later resumed after a court granted preliminary relief, according to sector reporting. [8]
That “repeat disruption” matters because markets tend to punish uncertainty more than bad news: once a project becomes a regulatory ping-pong ball, investors start modeling delays as a feature, not a risk. [9]
Sunrise Wind: big New York project, long-term contract, now paused
- Capacity: 924 MW
- Offtake: Ørsted says Sunrise Wind has a 25-year contract with the New York State energy authority (NYSERDA).
- Timeline (per Ørsted): Expected to begin delivering power from 2026, with final commissioning later. [10]
Ørsted has described the two projects together as preparing to power around 1 million homes across three states from next year—exactly the kind of “near-finish-line” narrative the equity market usually loves… right up until regulators hit the pause button. [11]
Ørsted share price reaction: a sharp drop on Copenhagen trading
On the Copenhagen market, Ørsted was among the biggest decliners, with local market coverage showing the stock down sharply into the close on Dec. 23. [12]
Reuters reported Ørsted shares fell more than 12% as the U.S. lease pause rippled through offshore wind names, reinforcing how tightly Ørsted stock is now coupled to Washington headlines. [13]
Zooming out, the stock’s longer drawdown is also part of the story: Reuters previously noted Ørsted shares had fallen dramatically from their 2021 highs amid cost inflation, supply-chain disruption, and repeated project resets. [14]
Analyst forecasts and price targets on Dec. 23, 2025: neutral consensus, wide dispersion
If you want the market’s “best guess” in one line, it’s this: analysts are not uniformly bearish—but they’re not paying up for certainty that doesn’t exist.
Consensus data compiled by Investing.com shows:
- Overall consensus: Neutral
- Analyst breakdown (past 3 months): 8 Buy / 13 Hold / 3 Sell
- Average 12‑month price target:DKK 137.39 (vs. a recent price around the mid‑DKK 100s)
- Target range:DKK 110 (low) to DKK 184 (high) [15]
MarketScreener’s consensus snapshot similarly lists an average target near DKK 137.39, with the stock’s last close around DKK 117.20 and an “outperform/hold-ish” mean consensus depending on the framing. [16]
Notable firm calls dated Dec. 23 (as reflected in consensus feeds)
- UBS: Buy, DKK 160 target (maintained)
- Bernstein: Hold, DKK 125 target (maintained) [17]
Other recent entries in the same consensus set include:
- Citi: Sell, DKK 122 target (maintained earlier in December) [18]
- Jefferies: Neutral stance reiterated (via MarketScreener’s recommendation feed) [19]
The big spread between DKK 110 and DKK 184 is the tell. Analysts broadly agree Ørsted has valuable assets and long-term tailwinds (electrification, energy security, decarbonization). They disagree violently on the discount rate you should apply when U.S. policy can interrupt construction after billions are committed.
The deeper problem investors are pricing: policy risk meets capital intensity
The U.S. decision isn’t just a delay. It strikes at a core assumption behind most offshore wind valuation models: that once projects clear permitting and enter construction, the remaining risks are mostly execution and finance.
But the administration’s new tactic—pausing leases rather than only fighting permits—adds a second “choke point.” The Washington Post described this as a shift in method after earlier legal setbacks against broader wind permitting freezes. [20]
Bloomberg Law reported that the five projects represent roughly $28 billion in total committed capital (BloombergNEF estimate), underscoring how much money is already committed before power generation begins. [21]
That matters for Ørsted stock because offshore wind is the opposite of a software subscription business: it’s a giant, sequential construction machine. If you stop the conveyor belt, costs don’t politely stop accumulating.
Context investors shouldn’t ignore: Ørsted spent 2025 shoring up its finances
This Dec. 23 shock lands on a company that has already been restructuring to survive a brutal stretch for offshore wind economics.
Key milestones from 2025 include:
- A large rights issue: Reuters reported Ørsted raised about 59.56 billion Danish crowns (roughly $9.35 billion) in a heavily discounted share issue, with management explicitly citing the need to strengthen the balance sheet amid U.S. regulatory uncertainty. [22]
- Cost cuts and a strategic pivot: Reuters reported Ørsted planned to cut about 2,000 jobs by end‑2027 and focus more on Europe after U.S. setbacks. [23]
- Major asset move in the UK: Reuters reported Ørsted agreed to sell 50% of Hornsea 3 for about DKK 39 billion (about $6.09 billion) to Apollo—widely viewed as important for funding and credit considerations. [24]
In other words: Ørsted entered late 2025 trying to prove it could finish what it started and re-earn trust. A forced 90‑day suspension—especially with the possibility of extension—reintroduces the exact uncertainty the company has been trying to delete from the narrative.
What investors should watch next
Ørsted stock is likely to remain headline-driven until there’s clarity on four fronts:
1) The scope and duration of the BOEM suspension
Ørsted says the stop-work order is 90 days and can be extended. Whether it ends on schedule (or becomes rolling) is the most immediate variable. [25]
2) Any mitigation framework with Defense/Interior
U.S. officials have pointed to radar interference; developers and industry groups argue these risks can be mitigated. Watch for technical mitigation requirements, timelines, and who pays. [26]
3) Litigation and appeals risk
Courts have already played a major role in 2025’s offshore wind saga—including a judge striking down a broader federal wind-permitting halt in December, according to Reuters, and earlier legal fights around Revolution Wind. If Ørsted challenges the lease pause, the timeline could change quickly. [27]
4) Credit and liquidity sensitivity
Ørsted’s capital raise and asset-sale program were closely tied to balance-sheet resilience. Additional U.S. disruption could revive concerns about rating pressure and financing costs—exactly what management has spent months trying to contain. [28]
Bottom line for Ørsted (ORSTED) stock on Dec. 23, 2025
Ørsted is still one of the world’s flagship offshore wind developers—but its equity has become a real-time referendum on a single question: Can offshore wind projects in the U.S. reach operation reliably once they’re under construction?
On Dec. 23, the market’s answer—at least in the short run—was “not reliably enough,” hence the sharp selloff. [29]
Analyst forecasts, meanwhile, show a cautious middle: consensus targets imply upside from current levels, but with unusually wide disagreement—classic “optional upside, mandatory risk” territory. [30]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. via.ritzau.dk, 7. via.ritzau.dk, 8. via.ritzau.dk, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. via.ritzau.dk, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.marketscreener.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.marketscreener.com, 20. www.washingtonpost.com, 21. news.bloomberglaw.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. via.ritzau.dk, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.investing.com
