First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is back in the spotlight on December 23, 2025, after a sharp rally pushed the U.S. solar manufacturer to a fresh 52-week high. Shares closed at $284.59 on Monday (Dec. 22) after trading as high as $285.99, and were indicated modestly higher in early Tuesday trading. [1]
The immediate catalyst wasn’t a new First Solar earnings release or a surprise contract announcement from Tempe. Instead, the market’s attention snapped to Alphabet’s agreement to buy clean energy developer Intersect Power—a company that has previously signed major module supply agreements with First Solar. The deal has reignited the “AI power demand meets utility-scale solar” narrative that has been quietly rebuilding under the surface all year. [2]
Below is what’s driving First Solar stock today, what the company has guided for 2025, what analysts are forecasting for 2026, and the key risks that still lurk in the solar supply chain jungle.
Why First Solar stock is moving now: the Alphabet–Intersect Power headline
On Dec. 22, Reuters reported that Alphabet will buy Intersect Power for $4.75 billion in cash (plus assumed debt), as Big Tech keeps spending to secure power capacity needed for AI and data center growth. Reuters added that Intersect has $15 billion of assets operating or under construction, and by 2028 its projects representing about 10.8 gigawatts of power are expected to be online or in development. [3]
So why did a Google-parent acquisition move a solar manufacturer?
Because Intersect Power is not just “a clean energy developer” in the abstract. It’s also been a meaningful First Solar customer.
In a detailed report on Intersect’s procurement, pv magazine USA noted that First Solar signed an additional agreement for delivery of 4.9 GW of thin‑film modules deployed from 2025 to 2029, and that—combined with an earlier agreement for 2.4 GW—the total commitment reached 7.3 GW of modules procured. The same report says Intersect was expected to be the largest buyer and operator of First Solar technology by 2029, and that the deliveries include a mix of Series 6 Plus and Series 7 modules. [4]
None of that guarantees new orders will suddenly appear because Alphabet is buying Intersect. But it does help explain why traders made the mental leap: if Big Tech is directly wiring itself into new clean-energy pipelines, the most “domestic-policy-aligned” U.S. module supplier becomes part of the conversation again.
The price action: new highs, heavier volume, and a “crowded good story”
First Solar’s Monday session was not subtle. Shares traded between roughly $265.65 and $285.99 and finished up 6.60% at $284.59, according to market data compiled by StockAnalysis. [5]
That move pushed the stock to a new 52-week high area (and in many feeds, an outright new 52-week high), with the 52-week range now commonly reported around $116.56 to $285.99. [6]
The interesting twist for investors: the stock is now trading at a level where a lot of “good news” is already priced in, and you can see that tension in analyst targets (more on that below). [7]
What First Solar actually does (and why policy keeps mattering)
First Solar is not a typical crystalline-silicon (“c‑Si”) panel maker. Reuters’ company profile describes it as a PV manufacturer focused on advanced thin-film photovoltaic technology, specifically cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules, including its Series 6 Plus and Series 7 products. [8]
That technical difference matters in two ways investors care about:
- Supply chain geopolitics: thin-film CdTe is a different manufacturing path than most imported c‑Si modules.
- U.S. industrial policy alignment: domestic manufacturing incentives and trade actions can create relative winners even if the overall solar market is messy.
And yes, the overall solar market has been messy at points in 2025.
Reuters reported in July that the solar industry had been dealing with lackluster demand and high interest rates, while also bracing for shifting U.S. policy. [9]
First Solar’s latest fundamentals: Q3 2025 results, backlog, and guidance
The most recent deep financial checkpoint was Third Quarter 2025 (reported Oct. 30).
In its Q3 release via Business Wire, First Solar reported:
- Net sales of $1.6 billion
- Record volume sold of 5.3 GW
- EPS (diluted) of $4.24
- Gross cash balance of $2.0 billion; net cash balance of $1.5 billion
- 2.7 GW in gross bookings since the prior earnings call
- Contracted sales backlog of 53.7 GW valued at $16.4 billion (as of Sept. 30, 2025) [10]
Those aren’t “nice-to-have” numbers. They’re the backbone of the bull case: visible demand and liquidity, even in an industry that often feels like a policy-driven roller coaster.
2025 guidance (as of Oct. 30): tighter sales range, but still strong profitability
First Solar updated its full-year 2025 guidance on Oct. 30. In both the Business Wire release and the company’s earnings presentation, the updated ranges included:
- Net sales: $4.95B to $5.20B
- Earnings per diluted share: $14.00 to $15.00
- Volume sold: 16.7 GW to 17.4 GW [11]
One subtle but important detail from the guidance slide: the company’s assumptions include substantial value tied to Section 45X tax credits (manufacturing credits under U.S. clean-energy policy), as referenced directly in the presentation footnotes. [12]
The backlog story includes a wrinkle: de-bookings and contract disputes
Reuters’ Oct. 30 coverage adds context that doesn’t always show up in headline EPS beats: First Solar lowered its 2025 sales forecast versus its prior range, citing reduced international volumes sold due to customer terminations (partly offset by termination payments). Reuters also reported the company sued a solar division of BP for breach of contract, and said this reduced backlog by 6.6 GW at a total transaction price of $1.9 billion. [13]
That’s not catastrophic—especially with backlog still enormous—but it’s a reminder that “backlog” is not a magical force field. Contracts can get renegotiated when markets and policy swing.
Manufacturing expansion: the next capacity wave is aimed right at 2026–2027
A major pillar of the longer-term narrative is expanding U.S. production and positioning modules to satisfy evolving domestic-content and sourcing rules.
Reuters reported that First Solar plans to establish a new 3.7 GW U.S. manufacturing facility, with production expected to start at the end of 2026 and ramp through the first half of 2027. [14]
First Solar’s Q3 earnings presentation frames this move as “U.S. onshoring”—specifically, a new facility intended to onshore finishing of international Series 6 modules, adding 3.7 GW of U.S. capacity that the company expects to be fully compliant with anticipated FEOC (Foreign Entity of Concern) regulations. The same slide states modules are expected to provide domestic content points for customers and qualify for 45X module assembly credits. [15]
The slide deck also flags operational realities investors shouldn’t ignore:
- Alabama: throughput “as designed,” but a glass supply chain issue constrained production
- Louisiana: commercial operations commenced in August 2025 [16]
Translation: the expansion story is real, but it’s still manufacturing—meaning it’s part physics, part logistics, part “please let our suppliers behave.”
Policy crosswinds: tariffs help, tax-credit timelines complicate, trade cases linger
If you want to understand why First Solar often trades like a policy instrument, 2025 provided a full syllabus.
Tariffs: a relative advantage for First Solar
In July, Reuters reported that First Solar raised its annual sales outlook at the time, expecting higher prices due to additional tariffs on foreign-made panels. CEO Mark Widmar said policy and trade developments had “on balance” strengthened First Solar’s relative position in solar manufacturing. [17]
Tax credits: deadlines can pull demand forward—and create future air pockets
In August, Reuters reported that U.S. solar stocks rose after the Treasury Department released subsidy rules that were not as stringent as feared. That same Reuters report said the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” requires projects to begin construction by July of next year or enter service by the end of 2027 to qualify for a 30% tax credit (and potential bonuses), and noted that under previous law credits were available through 2032. [18]
For First Solar investors, this creates a two-sided setup:
- A possible near-term ordering push as developers race to qualify.
- A possible demand cliff later if the market pulls too much forward and then slows.
Trade and investigation noise (especially around c‑Si supply)
First Solar’s own Q3 presentation lists a set of “Mounting c‑Si Headwinds in U.S.” including potential retrospective duties and multiple investigation tracks (e.g., AD/CVD matters and other Commerce/Treasury-related issues). [19]
Even if those are framed as “headwinds” for c‑Si (which could indirectly help First Solar by tightening competing supply), they’re still part of the uncertainty premium investors price into the whole sector.
Forecasts and analyst outlook: “Strong Buy” ratings, but targets lag the rally
Here’s where the story gets deliciously contradictory—in the way financial markets love.
As of Dec. 23 data compiled by StockAnalysis, First Solar is covered by 25 analysts with a consensus rating of “Strong Buy”, but the average 12‑month price target is $252.22, with a low of $150 and a high of $330. [20]
That average target is below where the stock is trading after Monday’s spike—suggesting that either:
- Analysts have not yet updated targets after the move, and/or
- The stock is already trading above what many models consider “base case” value, and/or
- The target distribution is wide because policy and pricing scenarios are wide.
StockAnalysis also lists several recent target actions, including Wells Fargo maintaining a buy rating while raising its target to $285 (from $270) on Dec. 19. [21]
Revenue and EPS forecasts (street view vs. company guidance)
StockAnalysis’ consensus financial forecast data shows:
- Revenue (2025): ~$5.22B
- Revenue (2026): ~$6.31B
- EPS (2025): ~14.93
- EPS (2026): ~23.00 [22]
Compare that to First Solar’s own 2025 guidance:
- Net sales: $4.95B to $5.20B
- EPS: $14.00 to $15.00 [23]
The EPS picture is notably aligned (company range brackets the consensus), while revenue consensus sits near the high end. The big leap is in 2026 EPS expectations, which likely reflects expectations around capacity utilization, pricing, and the continued role of manufacturing credits—though that’s precisely where policy risk and execution risk also live.
What to watch next: the catalysts that actually matter for FSLR in 2026
If you’re tracking First Solar stock beyond the daily headlines, these are the pressure points most likely to move the next big leg:
1) Intersect under Alphabet: real incremental demand or just narrative fuel?
Alphabet’s Intersect deal is real; the market’s interpretation is the variable. Watch for any confirmation that Intersect’s pipeline accelerates, expands, or changes procurement behavior post‑deal. [24]
2) The 2026–2027 manufacturing ramp
First Solar has been explicit about timing: production starting end of 2026, ramping through first half of 2027, adding 3.7 GW and positioning for FEOC and domestic-content frameworks. Execution is everything here. [25]
3) Policy timelines and the “construction deadline” trade
If developers rush to qualify under tax-credit timelines, that can boost near-term demand—but also risks future softness. Any additional Treasury guidance or legislative changes could shift the curve quickly. [26]
4) Backlog quality (terminations vs. durable utility-scale demand)
The company still has a massive contracted backlog, but 2025 showed that terminations and disputes can happen. Investors will likely reward evidence that backlog stabilizes and re-accelerates through high-quality counterparties. [27]
5) The boring stuff that breaks models: glass, logistics, and factory learning curves
The Q3 deck openly mentions a glass supply chain constraint. Manufacturing expansions tend to fail in embarrassingly mundane ways—right up until they succeed and become “obvious in hindsight.” [28]
Bottom line: First Solar stock is pricing a policy-and-power supercycle — but it still has to execute
As of Dec. 23, 2025, First Solar stock is trading near fresh highs after Alphabet’s Intersect Power acquisition reignited the market’s appetite for U.S.-aligned solar manufacturing plays. [29]
The company’s case still rests on tangible fundamentals: multi‑year backlog, strong cash position, and a clearly stated plan to expand U.S. capacity into 2026–2027 while navigating domestic-content rules and evolving trade regimes. [30]
At the same time, Wall Street’s “Strong Buy” posture sits awkwardly beside an average price target below the current share price—a sign that expectations are shifting fast and the stock may be outrunning slower-moving models. [31]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. pv-magazine-usa.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. www.businesswire.com, 12. s202.q4cdn.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. s202.q4cdn.com, 16. s202.q4cdn.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. s202.q4cdn.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. s202.q4cdn.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.businesswire.com, 28. s202.q4cdn.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.businesswire.com, 31. stockanalysis.com
