Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) is ending 2025 with the kind of stock chart that attracts two species in equal numbers: true believers and valuation police.
As of 3:59 p.m. UTC on Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025, Palantir stock was trading at $193.69, down a fraction on the session, after swinging between $191.60 and $195.34. Volume was about 10.3 million shares at that time.
Zoom out one notch and the story gets louder: Palantir has been one of the market’s most popular AI-and-defense plays in 2025, with its year-to-date return sitting around the mid‑150% range by many trackers. [1]
So what’s the news-and-analysis picture today (23.12.2025)—and what are forecasters saying about where PLTR could go in 2026?
Why Palantir stock is in focus today
1) Retail investors are still a major bid under “AI favorites” like Palantir
A Reuters market analysis published today highlighted how 2025 became a record year for retail participation and inflows—calling out Palantir alongside Nvidia and Tesla as top retail picks. In that framing, PLTR isn’t just a company story; it’s also a “who owns the risk” story, with individuals increasingly shaping flows and momentum. [2]
That matters because when a stock becomes a retail bellwether, it can stay expensive longer than skeptics expect—right up until it doesn’t.
2) Technical traders are watching the $194 area like it owes them money
A technical note published today described ~$194 as a key resistance zone for PLTR, with the stock’s recent rebound losing and regaining that neighborhood. The same analysis pointed to support levels around the mid‑$150s (and broader support around ~$150) after the post‑earnings dip earlier in the quarter. [3]
Meanwhile, Investor’s Business Daily coverage today portrayed Palantir as being in/near a buy zone after a breakout pattern, emphasizing the stock’s momentum credentials (and, implicitly, why it keeps showing up on trader watchlists). [4]
The fundamental engine: Palantir’s AI growth narrative (and guidance)
The clearest “why” behind Palantir’s 2025 surge remains its financial acceleration—especially in the U.S. commercial business, where management has repeatedly argued that the AI platform is pulling customers from pilot projects into bigger deployments.
Recent quarterly performance frequently cited in today’s analysis pieces includes:
- Q3 revenue around $1.18 billion, up 63% year over year
- Adjusted EPS around $0.21
- U.S. commercial revenue up 121% year over year to about $397 million
- U.S. government revenue up 52% year over year to about $486 million [5]
Just as important for the stock’s “2026 setup” is guidance. Palantir has been pointing to Q4 revenue of about $1.327–$1.331 billion, and it raised full‑year revenue guidance into the $4.396–$4.400 billion range in its most recent outlook materials—along with strong profitability and cash-flow expectations in those same materials. [6]
This combo—fast growth and improving profitability—is the reason the valuation argument has become so intense: Palantir is behaving like a fast-scaling platform company in its numbers, while still being priced like a company that might never slow down.
Defense and government deals: the contract flywheel is still spinning
A big part of Palantir’s bull case is that government demand for AI-enabled analytics, logistics, and operational decision tools is not a one-off budget moment—it’s a multi-year modernization wave.
The U.S. Army deal that keeps showing up in the 2026 conversation
A defense industry review published today noted that the U.S. Army awarded Palantir an Enterprise Service Agreement worth up to $10 billion over 10 years, consolidating 75 contracts into one arrangement meant to reduce cost and complexity and streamline software acquisition. [7]
Whether you’re bullish or bearish, this kind of structure matters: it can smooth revenue visibility, deepen platform lock-in, and make Palantir harder to displace.
The Navy “ShipOS” contract remains a recent catalyst in December coverage
Even though it wasn’t announced today, the U.S. Navy’s roughly $448 million ShipOS deal has been one of the most-cited December catalysts tied to Palantir’s defense growth narrative and stock momentum going into year-end. [8]
Europe: contract renewals and political scrutiny
Some analysis published today referenced Palantir’s renewal with France’s DGSI as a sign of durability in government relationships. [9]
At the same time, European concerns about sovereignty, security, and dependence on U.S. tech are not theoretical. A UK-focused report published yesterday said MPs were questioning UK Palantir contracts after an investigation raised security and governance concerns—illustrating the regulatory and political risk that can come with “mission critical” software. [10]
Palantir stock forecasts today: Wall Street is cautious, but the range is wild
Here’s the most important thing to know about Palantir stock forecasts on Dec. 23, 2025:
The “average” view is lukewarm, but a handful of influential bulls are still swinging for the fences.
Consensus: “Hold” vibes, and some targets sit below today’s price
A widely shared compilation today described a Hold consensus and an average price target around the high‑$180s—which implies modest downside from roughly $194. [11]
Another mainstream tracker shows a lower average target (roughly $172), also implying downside—highlighting how dependent the “consensus” number is on which analysts are included and when estimates were last refreshed. [12]
The bullish outlier: $255 remains the headline number
Bank of America’s Mariana Perez Mora has been repeatedly cited in December coverage for keeping a Buy rating and a $255 price target, one of the highest on the Street. A Barron’s piece described it as the highest target among analysts (per FactSet) and tied the optimism to enterprise AI adoption and a supportive policy backdrop for federal tech modernization. [13]
Independent “model” forecasts: 24/7 Wall St. goes bearish near-term, bullish long-term
A price-prediction article published today by 24/7 Wall St. offered a 12‑month target of $168 (bearish vs. ~$194), while also publishing a longer-horizon path that projects higher prices by 2030. Treat this as a model-based scenario, not an analyst consensus—but it’s part of today’s forecasting ecosystem around PLTR. [14]
Bull vs. bear framing today: growth durability vs. valuation gravity
A bull/bear piece published today summed up the split cleanly: bulls point to accelerating adoption and contract wins; bears point to rich multiples and the danger of “priced for perfection.” [15]
The biggest risk factor for PLTR in 2026 isn’t demand. It’s expectations.
If you stitch together today’s analyses, the debate comes down to one brutal question:
How much perfection is already priced into Palantir stock?
Valuation: “expensive” is not a number, but the multiples are the headline
Multiple commentaries circulating today argue that Palantir’s valuation has sprinted ahead of fundamentals again, warning that even strong execution could translate into flat returns if multiples compress. [16]
That’s the classic high-growth stock paradox: the company can do well and the stock can still struggle—if the starting price assumed miracles.
Insider activity is also on investors’ radar
Insider selling doesn’t automatically mean “bad news” (executives sell for many reasons), but the scale can shape sentiment. One tracker shows insider sales heavily outweighing buys over the last 12 months. [17]
Political and reputational risk is baked into the business model
Palantir’s core strength—deep ties to defense, intelligence, and sensitive operations—also creates recurring controversy. The UK scrutiny mentioned above is one example of the kind of headline risk that can flare up, especially when governments and healthcare systems are involved. [18]
And yes, even “non-business” headlines can add to the noise. A MarketWatch lifestyle/business item today reported CEO Alex Karp bought a $120 million Colorado monastery property—not a fundamental driver of revenue, but the kind of story that keeps a high-profile CEO (and stock) in the public feed. [19]
What to watch next for Palantir stock
Going into the final stretch of 2025 and the opening weeks of 2026, the practical checklist for PLTR investors looks like this:
1) Q4 results vs. the raised bar.
Palantir has already guided to Q4 revenue of ~$1.327–$1.331 billion and strong profitability measures. The market will care not only whether Palantir hits the numbers, but whether guidance suggests growth is staying “too hot to cool.” [20]
2) U.S. commercial momentum.
The U.S. commercial segment is the narrative centerpiece (121% growth cited widely). Sustaining that trajectory is what turns Palantir from a government-driven compounder into a broader enterprise AI platform story. [21]
3) New contract structures and renewals.
Large umbrella agreements like the Army’s Enterprise Service Agreement can change the revenue “shape” of the business and reinforce platform entrenchment. [22]
4) The market regime around AI.
Reuters’ reporting today on retail investor strength underscores that flows can amplify trends—up or down. If 2026 brings rate cuts and risk-on sentiment, expensive AI names can levitate. If fear of an AI bubble returns, they can deflate fast. [23]
Bottom line on Dec. 23, 2025
Palantir stock is holding around $194 today, balancing between two competing truths:
- The company is delivering real growth and real profitability, with guidance that suggests strong near-term demand. [24]
- The stock’s valuation has made it a referendum on how long hyper-growth can stay hyper—and whether investors keep paying premium multiples in 2026. [25]
In other words, PLTR is still doing what it’s done all year: forcing the market to answer a philosophical question with a price.
References
1. ca.finance.yahoo.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. ca.investing.com, 4. www.investors.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. investors.palantir.com, 7. breakingdefense.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.theguardian.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. 247wallst.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. seekingalpha.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.theguardian.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. investors.palantir.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. breakingdefense.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. seekingalpha.com
