December 23, 2025 — Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) shares slid sharply in Tuesday trading, pulling back after a powerful multi-day run that had pushed the biotech back into the mid-$30s. By the latest available intraday quote, MRNA was trading around $32.7, down roughly 6% on the day, after closing at $34.90 on Monday. [1]
The decline lands amid a busy stretch of late-2025 headlines for Moderna—spanning pandemic preparedness funding, European regulatory progress for its next-generation COVID shot, shifting U.S. vaccine policy, and a deal aimed at improving how some future Moderna medicines might be delivered. Here’s what’s driving the stock conversation on December 23, 2025, and how Wall Street forecasts are lining up for 2026 and beyond.
Why Moderna stock is falling today
MRNA’s drop on Dec. 23 looks less like a reaction to a single new corporate announcement and more like a volatility snap after a rapid climb.
From Dec. 18 to Dec. 22, Moderna stock rallied hard—posting a +9.21% move on Dec. 19 and another +3.25% gain on Dec. 22, before reversing lower on Dec. 23. [2]
That kind of sprint tends to invite two very human forces: profit-taking (traders grabbing gains) and mean reversion (prices cooling after a run). For Moderna—still a high-beta biotech with policy and trial catalysts lurking everywhere—those forces can show up as big daily swings.
The biggest Moderna headlines investors are weighing in late December 2025
Even if Dec. 23 itself doesn’t feature a single blockbuster update from Moderna, the stock is reacting in the context of several high-signal developments from the past few weeks.
1) Pandemic flu funding: CEPI backs a pivotal Phase 3 trial for Moderna’s H5 vaccine
One of Moderna’s most notable late-December catalysts is new funding tied to its H5 pandemic influenza (“bird flu”) program.
CEPI (the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations) said it will invest up to $54.3 million to support a pivotal Phase 3 trial for Moderna’s investigational H5 pandemic influenza vaccine candidate (mRNA-1018), with the Phase 3 study expected to begin early 2026 in the U.S. and U.K. [3]
This matters for the stock for two reasons:
- It validates that Moderna’s mRNA platform is still viewed as strategically valuable for fast-response vaccines.
- It helps offset a political/contracting overhang: BioPharma Dive notes that earlier U.S. government support tied to the project had been canceled, and the CEPI backing provides fresh momentum. [4]
2) Europe: EMA committee issues positive opinion for mNEXSPIKE (mRNA-1283)
Moderna also notched an important regulatory step in Europe for mNEXSPIKE, its next-generation COVID-19 vaccine.
The European Medicines Agency (EMA) page for mNexspike states that on Dec. 11, 2025, the CHMP (the EMA’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use) adopted a positive opinion recommending marketing authorization for prevention of COVID-19 in people 12 years and older. [5]
For investors, this is less about “COVID is back” and more about Moderna’s effort to defend and modernize its core commercial engine as COVID vaccination becomes more targeted, more seasonal, and more price-competitive.
3) Drug delivery upgrade: Moderna–Nanexa deal targets long-acting injectables
On the “platform” front—beyond vaccines—Moderna signed a deal with Sweden’s Nanexa aimed at improving delivery for up to five injectable therapies.
Fierce Biotech reported the structure as $3 million upfront with up to $500 million tied to options and milestones, plus tiered single-digit royalties if products are approved. [6]
Nanexa’s own announcement (Dec. 10, 2025) describes Moderna receiving a license for one selected compound and options for up to four more, with milestone totals up to $500 million and tiered single-digit royalties. [7]
This isn’t a near-term revenue event—but it signals Moderna is still investing in the practical problem that haunts many advanced medicines: how to deliver them in patient-friendly ways (lower injection volume, better release profiles, fewer clinic visits).
4) U.S. vaccine policy and safety headlines remain a valuation overhang
Moderna’s stock is unusually sensitive to U.S. public health policy, because COVID vaccination guidance still influences baseline demand—and also influences investor psychology.
- Reuters reported on Dec. 9, 2025 that U.S. regulators were investigating deaths potentially related to COVID-19 vaccines across multiple age groups as part of a safety review, and Moderna reiterated there were no new or undisclosed safety concerns tied to Spikevax in children or pregnant women. [8]
- Reuters then reported on Dec. 15, 2025 that the FDA had no plans to add a “black box” warning to COVID-19 vaccines, according to a Bloomberg report cited by Reuters. [9]
The policy layer matters too. Reuters’ Dec. 9 story notes that U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had limited COVID vaccine access to people 65+ and those with underlying conditions—exactly the kind of demand constraint that markets price in quickly. [10]
Moderna’s financial reset: cost cuts, a $1.5B loan, and the push toward breakeven
A big part of the Moderna stock story in 2025 is that the company is trying to evolve from “pandemic windfall machine” to “multi-product biotech”—without burning cash forever.
Q3 results highlighted lower costs—but also how hard the transition is
In its Nov. 6, 2025 report, Reuters said Moderna posted a smaller-than-expected loss and reduced the top end of its 2025 operating expense outlook by $700 million, citing lower production costs and R&D cutbacks. [11]
But the same Reuters report underscored the commercial challenge:
- Moderna lowered the top end of its 2025 revenue forecast to $1.6B–$2.0B (from $1.5B–$2.2B) on weak COVID vaccine sales. [12]
- It also reported very low mRESVIA (RSV vaccine) sales in the quarter and acknowledged stiff competition from Pfizer and GSK in RSV. [13]
Moderna’s $1.5B Ares loan is about flexibility—and runway
On Nov. 20, 2025, Reuters reported Moderna secured a five-year $1.5 billion loan from Ares Management, drawing $600 million upfront with optional access to additional tranches later. Moderna said it was targeting up to 10% revenue growth next year. [14]
Reuters also reported Moderna’s stated plan to cut $500 million in expenses in both 2026 and 2027, while working toward breaking even in 2028, alongside a reprioritization of its pipeline (including shelving certain programs after dropping its CMV vaccine in October). [15]
That’s the balancing act investors keep scoring: reduce burn, keep the pipeline credible, and land enough launches to replace the shrinking COVID cash cow.
Moderna pipeline snapshot: where the next growth could come from
Moderna’s own pipeline page (as-of Dec. 9, 2025) highlights how broad the company’s development portfolio remains—even after cuts. On the respiratory side alone, Moderna lists:
- mRNA-1010 (seasonal flu) — Phase 3
- mRNA-1083 (flu + COVID combo) — Phase 3
- mRNA-1018 (pandemic flu) — Phase 2
- mRESVIA (RSV) — commercial
- SPIKEVAX and mNEXSPIKE (COVID-19) — commercial [16]
Outside respiratory, the pipeline page also shows late-stage work like norovirus vaccine programs (including one in Phase 3), plus a deep oncology slate—most prominently mRNA-4157 (personalized cancer vaccine) partnered with Merck, listed across multiple Phase 3 and Phase 2 studies. [17]
It’s a reminder that Moderna is not “just COVID” anymore. The market’s question is harsher: Which of these programs will become durable, profitable franchises soon enough?
Analyst forecasts for MRNA stock: price targets and ratings into 2026
Analyst sentiment on Moderna remains mixed—often because analysts disagree on two core variables:
- how big the post-pandemic vaccine business really is, and
- how quickly newer programs can turn into meaningful revenue.
MarketBeat’s Dec. 23 consensus snapshot says 19 analysts rate Moderna as “Reduce” overall (5 sell, 12 hold, 2 buy), with an average 1-year price target of about $29.21. [18]
That target sits below where the stock traded earlier this week—suggesting the Street, on average, is not fully buying the late-December rally.
Recent individual targets have ranged widely. Quiver Quantitative’s forecast tracker highlights, for example, a Jefferies initiation with a $30 target (Dec. 12, 2025), while listing other targets as high as $63 (Piper Sandler, Nov. 21, 2025) and as low as $18 (Leerink Partners, Nov. 21, 2025). [19]
That spread is basically a neon sign that says: the story is still probabilistic. Small changes in assumed uptake, pricing, or trial success can swing valuation models dramatically.
Technical and model-based forecasts: treat with caution
Some forecasting sites leaning on technical indicators suggest Moderna may be overheated after the recent run and project short-term volatility. For example, CoinCodex’s model (updated Dec. 23, 2025) projected a move down to about $28.11 by Jan. 21, 2026 (model-based estimate). [20]
These are not Wall Street earnings models—and they shouldn’t be confused with clinical or commercial fundamentals—but they can influence retail chatter and short-term positioning.
What could move Moderna stock next: catalysts and risks for 2026
From here, Moderna’s next big stock moves are likely to be driven by a familiar biotech trio: regulatory decisions, trial data, and policy headlines.
Key items investors will likely monitor in 2026 include:
- Start of the CEPI-backed Phase 3 trial for Moderna’s H5 pandemic influenza vaccine candidate mRNA-1018 (planned early 2026). [21]
- European regulatory follow-through after the EMA committee’s positive opinion for mNEXSPIKE, which could influence access and procurement across EU markets. [22]
- Progress on Moderna’s late-stage respiratory programs, especially Phase 3 flu (mRNA-1010) and the Phase 3 flu/COVID combo (mRNA-1083), both shown in Moderna’s pipeline as of Dec. 9, 2025. [23]
- Oncology readouts: Reuters reported that late-stage data for the Merck-partnered individualized cancer vaccine could be available next year (i.e., 2026), with a possible launch discussed for 2027. [24]
- U.S. vaccine policy and safety communications, where even “just” a headline can shift demand expectations (and therefore revenue expectations). [25]
Bottom line on Moderna stock on Dec. 23, 2025
Moderna’s Dec. 23 pullback is happening after a fast rally—and in the middle of a narrative that’s still evolving: the company is cutting costs and buying runway, while simultaneously trying to prove it can keep shipping commercially relevant vaccines and translate its mRNA platform into new products.
The late-2025 news flow offers real positives (pandemic flu funding, EU regulatory momentum, platform partnerships), but also real friction (policy uncertainty, COVID demand ceilings, and tough vaccine competition). In short: Moderna is still building its “post-COVID identity,” and the stock is pricing that identity in real time—with all the mood swings that implies. [26]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. cepi.net, 4. www.biopharmadive.com, 5. www.ema.europa.eu, 6. www.fiercebiotech.com, 7. nanexa.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.modernatx.com, 17. www.modernatx.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.quiverquant.com, 20. coincodex.com, 21. cepi.net, 22. www.ema.europa.eu, 23. www.modernatx.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com
