Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) is back in its natural habitat on Tuesday, December 23, 2025: dramatic price action. After a sharp rally to start the holiday week, RGTI stock pulled back mid-session, underscoring just how sentiment-driven the “pure-play” quantum trade can be when liquidity thins and headlines multiply.
As of 1:58 p.m. ET (18:58 UTC), Rigetti shares traded at $25.25, down $1.63 (-6.06%) on the day, after opening at $25.83 and trading between $25.10 and $26.82.
That drop follows Monday’s surge—an about-face that’s quickly become a motif for quantum computing stocks in 2025.
Rigetti stock today: a pullback after Monday’s jump
Monday’s move in quantum names was widely described as a broad “risk-on” burst: several publicly traded quantum firms posted double-digit gains, and Rigetti was among the standouts. A market recap published today characterized Rigetti’s Monday session as a 13.13% gain to $26.88. [1]
By Tuesday morning, the tone flipped toward profit-taking, with at least one outlet describing a “soar-then-fall” pattern across D-Wave, Rigetti, and IonQ during the holiday week. [2]
The key point for investors isn’t just the down day—it’s the setup: in a story where commercialization timelines are long and quarterly revenue is still small, the stock can trade like a sentiment instrument.
What’s driving the move: sector momentum, holiday liquidity, and options heat
Pinning RGTI’s day-to-day catalyst to a single headline is tricky. One report covering the broader group said the exact catalyst for the early-week spike wasn’t clear, a realistic admission given that quantum names often move on narrative momentum rather than a discrete company announcement. [3]
Two explanations that surfaced repeatedly in today’s coverage:
- Holiday-week liquidity + “window dressing.” A market commentary published December 23 framed Monday’s rally as consistent with institutional “window dressing” behavior into quarter- and year-end. [4]
- Bullish options activity feeding momentum. Another market analysis tied Monday’s pop in RGTI (and peers) to bullish options activity, while noting some gains faded in Tuesday premarket. [5]
None of these are iron laws of finance—but together they describe a familiar cocktail: thin trading + crowded themes + leverage can produce big, fast swings.
The fundamentals check: Rigetti is still early-stage, but it’s unusually well-capitalized
Here’s the part that matters more than today’s tape: Rigetti is not currently valued like a steady cash-flow business. It’s valued like a technology roadmap with optionality—and the company itself is candid that it’s still in heavy R&D mode.
In its most recent quarterly results release (filed as an SEC exhibit), Rigetti reported for Q3 2025 (ended Sept. 30, 2025):
- Revenue:$1.9 million
- Operating loss:$20.5 million
- GAAP net loss:$201.0 million (vs. non-GAAP net loss of $10.7 million)
- Cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale investments:$558.9 million as of Sept. 30, 2025, and approximately $600.0 million as of Nov. 6, 2025 (after $46.5 million in proceeds from warrant exercises) [6]
That “GAAP loss vs. non-GAAP loss” gap is large because Rigetti’s results can be heavily influenced by non-cash accounting items tied to warrants and other fair-value changes—items the company explicitly separates from operating performance in its non-GAAP presentation. [7]
In plain English: the income statement is noisy, but the balance sheet is the company’s biggest strategic asset right now.
Rigetti’s quantum roadmap: 100+ qubits by end of 2025, then bigger jumps in 2026–2027
Rigetti’s investment case has always been about engineering milestones. In the same Q3 release, the company reiterated and extended a roadmap that investors are watching closely:
- By end of 2025: deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based quantum system, targeting 99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity
- By end of 2026: deploy a 150+ qubit system, targeting 99.7% median two‑qubit gate fidelity
- By end of 2027: deploy a 1,000+ qubit system, targeting 99.8% median two‑qubit gate fidelity [8]
Gate fidelity is a critical metric because quantum computers are exquisitely error-prone; higher fidelity generally means fewer errors per operation, which is essential for scaling useful computations.
If Rigetti hits these targets, it strengthens the bullish narrative that superconducting-qubit platforms can scale—and that the company’s “full-stack” approach (chips + systems + cloud) can translate into defensible market position.
If it misses, the stock’s volatility tends to make those misses feel louder than they would in a mature sector.
Commercial updates: on-premise system orders, defense work, and international expansion
While most quantum revenue today is still modest (and often lumpy), Rigetti has been pushing toward on-premise system sales plus government-funded R&D.
From the Q3 release:
- $5.7 million in purchase orders for two 9‑qubit Novera™ on-premise quantum computing systems, with expected delivery in the first half of 2026. The company described one buyer as an Asian technology manufacturing company and the other as a California applied physics/AI startup. [9]
- A three-year, $5.8 million contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), in collaboration with Dutch startup QphoX, aimed at superconducting quantum networking and microwave-to-optical signal conversion. [10]
- Plans to open an Italian subsidiary in the coming months to pursue opportunities and talent in Italy amid increased regional quantum funding. [11]
- An update on DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI): Rigetti said it was not initially selected for Stage B when DARPA announced initial selections on Nov. 6, 2025, but that dialogue with DARPA is ongoing and the company is optimistic about potential selection in coming months. [12]
For investors, the near-term question isn’t “will quantum change the world?”—it’s: how fast can these projects turn into repeatable revenue, and at what cost?
Wall Street forecasts: new coverage, wide price targets, and a “big upside vs. big uncertainty” consensus
A major theme in late-December coverage is that Wall Street is paying more attention to pure-play quantum stocks—initiating coverage and publishing thematic research, even while warning about volatility and long timelines. [13]
Fresh analyst calls on Rigetti in December 2025
Recent initiations highlighted across multiple reports include:
- Wedbush: initiated coverage with an Outperform/Buy stance and a $35 price target (reported as December 17, 2025). [14]
- Jefferies: initiated Hold with a $30 price target (reported as December 16, 2025). [15]
- Mizuho: initiated with an Outperform stance and a $50 price target (reported as December 11, 2025). [16]
Depending on the data provider and timing, “consensus” targets vary. One tracking page shows an average target around $29.38 (with a $12–$50 range). [17] Another report published today cited a consensus price target around $31.22. [18]
That spread is the story: analysts see massive upside if the tech and adoption curve bend the right way, but they’re also signaling that it’s hard to handicap probability—and valuation—at this stage.
Revenue and earnings forecasts: growth expected, losses likely to persist
Aggregated analyst models still generally expect Rigetti to remain unprofitable near-term, even if revenue improves:
- One forecast set shows FY2025 revenue around $7.74 million and FY2026 revenue around $20.66 million, with EPS still negative (e.g., -0.18 to -0.16). [19]
Treat these as directional rather than destiny: in emerging technologies, forecasts can change quickly when a single contract lands—or slips.
The AI–quantum bridge: why NVIDIA’s NVQLink matters to the narrative
Rigetti has been leaning into the “hybrid computing” concept: quantum processors integrated with classical supercomputing and AI workflows.
In its Q3 release, Rigetti said it is supporting NVIDIA NVQLink, described as an open platform for AI supercomputer–quantum integration. [20]
Separately, NVIDIA’s own NVQLink announcement in late 2025 positioned NVQLink as a low-latency, high-throughput interconnect aimed at enabling hybrid quantum–classical systems and error correction workflows, and it listed Rigetti among participating quantum hardware builders. [21]
For Rigetti shareholders, this isn’t immediate revenue—but it reinforces why the market sometimes trades quantum names alongside AI momentum: the pitch is that quantum accelerators eventually plug into the same “big compute” stack that’s reshaping tech.
What to watch next for RGTI stock: catalysts into early 2026
If Rigetti stock remains headline-sensitive (likely), the next major waypoints are pretty clear:
- Next earnings window. One earnings calendar lists Rigetti’s next expected report date as March 4, 2026 (date estimates can change). [22]
- Delivery progress on the $5.7M Novera orders targeted for H1 2026, a tangible “commercial hardware” milestone. [23]
- Follow-through on the 100+ qubit system goal the company is still targeting by end of 2025—with fidelity metrics that the market will scrutinize. [24]
- Government-funded program momentum, especially any updates tied to AFRL networking work and DARPA QBI engagement. [25]
- Analyst research cadence. New coverage tends to increase trading volume and narrative churn—useful when it’s positive, brutal when it isn’t. [26]
Bottom line: Rigetti’s story is a roadmap, not a quarterly trend—so the stock trades like it
On December 23, 2025, Rigetti Computing stock is doing what high-volatility, narrative-driven technology stocks often do: giving back a chunk of a fast rally as traders rebalance risk. [27]
Underneath the price action, the investment debate is basically unchanged:
- Bulls point to a large cash position, a concrete multi-year roadmap, early commercial system orders, and increasing institutional attention. [28]
- Skeptics point to today’s small revenue base, execution risk on technical milestones, and the sector’s long runway to widespread commercial adoption. [29]
In other words: Rigetti isn’t just a stock—it’s a referendum on how quickly the quantum future arrives, and who gets paid along the way.
References
1. www.insidermonkey.com, 2. www.fastcompany.com, 3. www.fastcompany.com, 4. www.insidermonkey.com, 5. www.tipranks.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.investors.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 22. www.zacks.com, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.sec.gov, 26. www.investors.com, 27. www.fastcompany.com, 28. www.sec.gov, 29. www.sec.gov
