Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) is back in the spotlight on 24 December 2025, and the reason is refreshingly simple: gold is doing gold things—namely, smashing records and dragging gold equities higher with it.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries Gold sub-index climbed to fresh highs, with large producers including Northern Star Resources rising as much as 1.5% in the session, according to ABC’s market coverage. [1] Meanwhile, Reuters reported spot gold at fresh all-time highs around $4,524/oz, capping a year in which bullion has surged roughly 72%. [2]
Below is a full, publication-ready roundup of what’s driving Northern Star stock right now—today’s news flow, the most relevant recent company updates, and the latest analyst forecasts and valuation takes available as of 24 December 2025.
Northern Star share price today: what the market is saying on 24 December 2025
As of 24 December 2025, Investing.com showed Northern Star trading around A$27.01, versus a previous close of A$26.70, with an intraday range shown at A$26.740 to A$27.220 and a 52‑week range of A$15.300 to A$27.985. [3]
That price action lines up with the broader Australian gold-equity surge highlighted by ABC: gold miners have been moving as bullion makes repeated record highs, and the sector index has had an extraordinary run through 2025. [4]
The big catalyst: record bullion prices are lifting the whole complex
Northern Star is a business with real operational levers—cost control, grade, project delivery—but it’s also very exposed to the “macro lever”: the gold price.
On the day, Reuters’ global markets wrap underscored just how dominant precious metals have been in late‑2025 trading, with gold and silver hitting new records as the year winds down. [5] In Australia specifically, Reuters has also pointed to how gold’s strength is feeding into national export expectations, with Australia revising resource export earnings higher and forecasting gold to become the country’s second most valuable resource export in FY2025‑26, with gold export earnings projected to rise further into FY2026‑27. [6]
For Northern Star shareholders, that matters because sustained high bullion prices can (in theory) cushion cost inflation and widen margins—if operating costs and project execution stay under control.
What Northern Star last told investors: Q1 FY26 results and FY26 guidance
The most recent full operational snapshot available heading into year-end is Northern Star’s September 2025 Quarterly Activities Report (Q1 FY26) released on 23 October 2025.
Key reported metrics included:
- Gold sold:381,055 oz
- All-in sustaining cost (AISC):A$2,522/oz
- By production centre (gold sold / AISC):
- Kalgoorlie:202,812 oz at A$2,474/oz
- Yandal:113,422 oz at A$2,778/oz
- Pogo:64,821 oz at US$1,453/oz [7]
FY26 outlook and key watch-outs
Northern Star reaffirmed (and detailed) FY26 settings that remain highly relevant for anyone evaluating NST stock into 2026:
- FY26 production guidance:1.70–1.85 million ounces sold
- FY26 AISC guidance:A$2,300–2,700/oz
- Commentary also flagged operational disruptions at Jundee and South Kalgoorlie early in the December quarter, with an estimated impact on December-quarter gold sales of up to 20 koz, though affected volumes were scheduled to be processed later in FY26. [8]
Balance sheet and hedging posture
In the same quarterly update, Northern Star highlighted:
- Net cash of A$616 million
- Cash and bullion of A$1,511 million
- “No hedge commitments added over the last year,” with hedge commitments continuing to unwind [9]
Those points are important in a record-gold environment: investors tend to reward unhedged (or less-hedged) producers when prices are rising, but also scrutinize liquidity and funding when growth capex is heavy.
Exploration and growth: A$225 million FY26 exploration spend and “fourth production centre” ambition
On 5 December 2025, Northern Star released an FY26 Exploration Update that effectively framed the company’s “organic growth” story for the coming year.
Highlights Northern Star disclosed included:
- FY26 exploration spend of A$225 million (unchanged)
- Focus on near-mine growth and conversion across its operating footprint
- Specific exploration thrusts across:
- KCGM / Kalgoorlie: including discussion of Fimiston South mineralisation extending deeper, plus new prospects and resource upgrade work
- Yandal: mine-life extension opportunities near infrastructure
- Pogo: extensional drilling and multiple high-priority targets
- Hemi: potential growth adjacent to the existing resource and early regional success [10]
Northern Star also stated that Hemi Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves are planned to be incorporated into the group’s annual statement due May 2026, and described the integration of the Hemi Development Project as progressing, with approvals moving forward for what it expects to become a fourth production centre. [11]
Hemi: why this asset still matters to Northern Star’s investment case in late 2025
Hemi is not “new news” anymore—but it remains core to many medium-term bullish arguments around Northern Star.
Northern Star confirmed the completion of its De Grey Mining acquisition on 5 May 2025, with eligible De Grey shareholders receiving 0.119 new Northern Star shares per De Grey share (record date 28 April 2025). [12] Northern Star’s own Hemi asset page reiterates the acquisition date and provides the current published scale of the project:
- Mineral Resources:11,174 koz
- Ore Reserves:6,002 koz
- Location: 85 km south of Port Hedland, Western Australia [13]
In simple terms: investors are valuing Northern Star not just as an operator of today’s ounces, but as a company trying to add a large-scale, long-life development engine to its portfolio while it simultaneously funds major infrastructure (notably Kalgoorlie/KCGM expansion plans referenced in quarterly commentary). [14]
Today’s notable ownership/newsflow item: VanEck ceases to be a substantial holder
Northern Star also had a fresh regulatory filing in the news stream: a Form 605 indicating Van Eck Associates Corporation (and associated entities) ceased to be a substantial holder of Northern Star on 19 December 2025. [15]
A Form 605 doesn’t automatically tell you “bullish” or “bearish”—it tells you a disclosure threshold has been crossed (typically falling below the substantial holding level) and can reflect ETF flows, rebalancing, or portfolio moves rather than a fundamental view.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what the consensus looks like right now
Forecasting is messy. Analyst targets move with gold, costs, and execution confidence. But as of 24 December 2025, several widely used market-data aggregators show a broadly constructive Street stance on NST—while still acknowledging a wide dispersion of outcomes.
TradingView: target ~A$30 with a wide range
TradingView’s analyst aggregation showed:
- Average price target:A$30.21
- High estimate:A$39.00
- Low estimate:A$18.00
- Overall analyst rating shown as “buy” (from 18 analysts over the prior 3 months) [16]
TradingView also displayed an estimate that next-quarter revenue is expected to reach about A$3.97 billion. [17]
Fintel: average target ~A$29 (projection dated 5 Dec 2025)
Fintel’s compiled analyst targets listed:
- Average one-year price target:$29.17
- Range:$18.18 to $36.91
- With the table showing a record date of 2025‑12‑05 and projection date of 2026‑12‑05 [18]
Investing.com: target ~A$28.92, “Buy” rating
Investing.com’s snapshot showed:
- Average 12‑month price target:AUD 28.91938
- High:AUD 35.15
- Low:AUD 13.7
- A summary rating of Buy (with a mix of buy/sell recommendations) [19]
Broker/coverage note in circulation: Macquarie “Outperform”
A widely syndicated market note reported (via Nasdaq/Fintel) that Macquarie Research maintained an “Outperform” recommendation on Northern Star (OTC: NESRF) dated 12 December 2025. [20]
Not all analysis is bullish: a “Hold” case built around valuation and liquidity (OTC line)
One example of a more cautious angle comes from Seeking Alpha, where an analyst publication dated 10 December 2025 framed Northern Star (OTC: NESRF) as a Hold, citing strong momentum but arguing that valuation and liquidity dynamics on the US OTC line can limit near-term upside. [21]
This doesn’t necessarily contradict bullish ASX views—it highlights that vehicle, liquidity, and market structure can change the risk/reward even when the underlying company is the same.
What to watch next: specific Northern Star dates investors are tracking
Northern Star’s own investor calendar lists key upcoming reporting events:
- December 2025 Quarterly Results:Thursday, 22 January 2026
- FY26 Half Year Results:Thursday, 12 February 2026 [22]
Given the company’s October guidance commentary, the December-quarter update is likely to be scrutinized for:
- The realized impact (if any) of the early December-quarter disruptions and the timing of deferred processing volumes [23]
- Cost trajectory versus AISC guidance amid inflation and royalties
- Capital/project progress, including the pathway toward expanded throughput and longer-term cost efficiency themes discussed in prior updates [24]
- Any further clarity on Hemi integration milestones and approvals [25]
The setup for 2026: the bull case and the bear case in plain English
Here’s the cleanest way to think about Northern Star stock as 2025 closes:
The bull case
- Gold price stays higher for longer, improving margins and cash generation. [26]
- Northern Star delivers within guidance, keeps costs contained, and avoids project blowouts. [27]
- Exploration spend (A$225m) supports mine-life extension and resource conversion, lowering “ex-growth” risk. [28]
- Hemi remains a credible long-duration growth engine, with published resource/reserve scale supporting the strategic rationale. [29]
The bear case
- Costs outpace expectations (labour, power, consumables, sustaining capex), compressing margins even with strong bullion.
- Growth projects and approvals move slower than hoped (timelines matter when capex is large).
- Gold price normalizes or reverses—always possible after a record run—reducing the sector’s valuation support.
- Ownership/flow dynamics (ETFs, index changes, rebalancing) create volatility that looks “fundamental” on a chart but isn’t. [30]
Bottom line on 24 December 2025
Northern Star Resources stock is ending 2025 with powerful tailwinds from record gold prices and a sector-wide rally—visible today in both global commodities coverage and the lift in Australian gold equities. [31] At the company level, the latest quarterly report and December exploration update keep the story anchored around three things: guidance delivery, cost discipline, and execution of major growth pathways (including Hemi and Kalgoorlie-related expansion themes). [32]
Analyst consensus targets clustered around the high‑$20s to ~A$30 range (with wide spreads) suggest the market still sees upside—but not without execution risk, and not without disagreement. [33]
References
1. www.abc.net.au, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.abc.net.au, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.nsrltd.com, 8. www.nsrltd.com, 9. www.nsrltd.com, 10. www.nsrltd.com, 11. www.nsrltd.com, 12. www.nsrltd.com, 13. www.nsrltd.com, 14. www.nsrltd.com, 15. company-announcements.afr.com, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. www.tradingview.com, 18. fintel.io, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. seekingalpha.com, 22. www.nsrltd.com, 23. www.nsrltd.com, 24. www.nsrltd.com, 25. www.nsrltd.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.nsrltd.com, 28. www.nsrltd.com, 29. www.nsrltd.com, 30. company-announcements.afr.com, 31. www.abc.net.au, 32. www.nsrltd.com, 33. www.tradingview.com
