National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) closed A$42.43 on 24 December 2025, edging lower in a shortened Christmas Eve session on the ASX. The move was modest—but it lands NAB stock in the middle of a bigger, more interesting story: Australian bank valuations have been pushed to expensive levels, investors are watching how lower interest rates reshape bank profit margins, and analysts remain divided on whether the “Big Four” can keep justifying premium pricing into 2026. [1]
Below is a comprehensive roundup of what’s moving NAB shares, the latest company filings, the most recent results and dividend details, and what forecasts and valuation models are implying as we head into 2026.
NAB share price today: where National Australia Bank stock finished on 24.12.2025
NAB stock’s 24 December 2025 close and day range looked like this (ASX end-of-day data):
- Close: A$42.43
- Open / High / Low: A$42.47 / A$42.47 / A$42.05
- Day move vs prior close: about -0.21%
- Volume: about 1.38 million shares [2]
That “holiday tape” matters. ASX confirmed that normal trading ceased at 2:10pm AEDT on Christmas Eve, and the market does not trade on Christmas Day and Boxing Day (with the standard holiday closure schedule). Thin liquidity can exaggerate small moves—especially in mega-liquid names like NAB where price discovery is normally smoother. [3]
What drove bank stocks on Christmas Eve: valuations did the heavy lifting
On 24 December, the broader market tone was mixed—resources were buoyed by record commodity moves, while banks weighed on the index. In intraday coverage, ABC noted the Big Four banks (including NAB) fell roughly 0.3% to 0.8%, and framed the pressure as a valuation issue—“stretched valuations,” i.e., expensive prices relative to profits. [4]
This is the core tension for NAB investors right now:
- If bank earnings growth stays steady-but-not-spectacular, valuations need to remain elevated to support further share price gains.
- If competition, costs, or a rate-driven margin squeeze hit profits, the valuation premium becomes harder to defend.
In other words: NAB doesn’t need “bad news” to fall—just less-than-perfect news. That’s what expensive stocks are like. They’re a little bit dramatic.
Latest NAB news on and around 24.12.2025: filings, share changes, and what’s actually “new”
1) Employee equity plan activity: performance rights issued (Appendix 3G)
In late December, NAB lodged an Appendix 3G covering the issue of unquoted equity securities under employee incentive arrangements. The filing shows:
- NABAM performance rights:655,363 issued 16/12/2025
- NABAM performance rights:45,955 issued 17/12/2025
- Total unquoted NABAM performance rights on issue:3,798,805 (post-issue, per the form) [5]
These types of notices are common for large corporates. They’re usually not a “fundamentals bombshell,” but they are relevant for investors who track dilution and share-based compensation.
2) New ordinary shares applied for quotation: 2,492,875 shares (Appendix 2A)
NAB also lodged an Appendix 2A applying for quotation of 2,492,875 ordinary fully paid shares, tied to its employee equity arrangements (issue date shown as 16/12/2025 in the document). [6]
Again: not the kind of thing that usually moves the share price on its own, but it is part of the “quiet machinery” behind share count changes over time.
3) Other ASX items flagged in the prior-day announcement list
ASX’s prior trading-day announcement list shows additional NAB-related lodgements on 23/12/2025, including Results of EGM and an Appendix 3Y (Change of Director’s Interest Notice), plus a Change in substantial holding notice. [7]
Those can matter depending on what’s inside (especially “substantial holding” changes), but the announcement index at least confirms they were lodged in the market’s official news flow.
NAB’s most recent financial picture: FY2025 results and what they said about momentum
For fundamentals, the anchor document is NAB’s FY2025 full-year results (year ended 30 September 2025, released 6 November 2025). Here’s what stands out.
Profit and earnings: stable cash earnings, slight underlying profit growth
NAB’s FY25 results summary states:
- Underlying profit:A$10,965m (up 1.3%)
- Cash earnings:A$7,091m (broadly stable year-on-year, down 0.2% in the summary table) [8]
Reuters’ coverage similarly described annual cash profit as broadly stable, highlighting the ongoing mix of volume growth, costs, and margin dynamics. [9]
Margins and balance sheet growth: the classic bank chess match
From NAB’s FY25 results summary:
- Gross loans and advances increased 5.9%
- Deposits increased 7.4%
- Net interest margin (NIM) increased 3 bps to 1.74% [10]
That’s the bank’s tightrope:
- Loan growth helps revenue.
- Deposit pricing and funding costs can squeeze NIM.
- Competitive mortgage markets can turn NIM into a knife fight fought with decimals.
Costs and credit quality: the two “quiet” drivers that become loud fast
NAB’s summary puts real emphasis on costs:
- Operating expenses rose 4.6% to A$9,848m
- The bank cited productivity benefits of A$420m, but also flagged A$130m of payroll review and remediation costs as a drag. [11]
Credit impairment also rose:
- Credit impairment charge:A$833m (up 14.4% year-on-year in the summary table) [12]
Zooming out: this is why banks can look “boring” right up until they aren’t. A small swing in bad debts or cost inflation can matter a lot when the market is paying a premium multiple.
NAB dividend update: what shareholders received in 2025
Dividend investors follow NAB closely—and NAB has been explicit about the FY25 payout.
NAB’s shareholder dividend page states:
- 2025 final dividend:85 cents per ordinary share
- 100% franked (at a 30% tax rate)
- Payable:12 December 2025 [13]
NAB’s FY25 results summary also confirms:
- Total dividends for FY25:170 cents per share
- FY25 cash earnings payout ratio:73.3%
- This sits within NAB’s stated target payout range of 65%–75% (subject to board determination). [14]
At a share price around A$42.43, a A$1.70 annual dividend implies a cash yield of roughly 4% (before franking considerations), which lines up with how several research providers frame the income appeal—especially in a market where bank dividends remain a major reason institutions own the sector at all. [15]
Analyst forecasts for NAB stock: price targets, valuation calls, and why they skew cautious
Here’s where the story gets spicy (in a responsible, spreadsheet-y way).
Consensus price targets: the average target sits below the current share price
Several widely-followed consensus trackers show NAB’s average target below where the shares traded in late December:
- Investing.com shows an average target around A$38.07, with a high near A$46.31 and a low near A$29. [16]
- TradingView shows a similar shape: average around A$37.77, with a high near A$46.31 and low around A$28.79. [17]
With NAB closing A$42.43 on 24 December, that suggests the “typical” analyst model is not pricing in big upside—unless earnings or sentiment improves. [18]
Morningstar’s valuation take: “materially overvalued” with a fair value estimate of A$33
Morningstar’s November analysis is blunt:
- FY25 profit described as stable at A$7.1bn
- Fair value estimate raised to A$33
- Shares described as materially overvalued
- Framed as a stock trading on a rich multiple and yield given expected longer-run EPS growth [19]
You don’t have to agree with Morningstar to learn from it. What it really signals is how much optimism is already “in the price.”
Strategic themes analysts and investors are watching into 2026
Mortgage competition and distribution economics: bypassing brokers to protect margins
One of the clearest sector-wide themes is the push to reduce broker dependence.
Reuters reported that the Big Four have been moving to tilt more home lending through proprietary channels, partly because broker-originated mortgages involve commissions that pressure margins. Reuters cited UBS estimating brokers write a large share of new loans, and included NAB CEO Andrew Irvine’s comment that proprietary lending can be meaningfully better-returning than broker books. [20]
For NAB stock, this matters because:
- It’s a margin defense strategy (protect NIM in a competitive market).
- It also changes the bank’s cost base and customer acquisition model.
Costs, remediation, and “operational drag”
NAB’s payroll remediation provision was a reminder that banks carry operational complexity—and that complexity sometimes gets expensive.
Reuters reported NAB warned FY expenses would be higher after discovering staff underpayments, with a provision up to A$130m and ongoing review/remediation work. [21]
These are rarely existential issues for major banks—but markets care because they chip away at the clean “dividend machine” narrative.
NAB stock outlook for 2026: a realistic watchlist (catalysts and risks)
Here’s the practical set of variables that are most likely to decide whether NAB’s 2026 story is “quietly compounding” or “valuation gravity”:
Valuation vs earnings delivery
When a stock is priced richly (as multiple market commentators argue for the major banks), the burden shifts to execution: steady margins, stable credit costs, and disciplined expenses. [22]
Net interest margin direction
NAB’s FY25 NIM was 1.74%—small movements from here can materially affect earnings given the scale of the balance sheet. [23]
Credit quality and impairment trends
FY25’s credit impairment charge was A$833m in the results summary, and investors will watch whether that stays contained if economic conditions soften or if specific portfolios deteriorate. [24]
Home loan competition and channel strategy
If proprietary origination rises, it may support margins—but it also requires staff, systems, and a sharp customer proposition. Reuters’ reporting suggests this is now a major strategic lever across the sector. [25]
Capital management and dilution optics
Employee equity activity (performance rights and share quotation applications) typically isn’t price-sensitive day-to-day, but it’s part of the longer-term shareholder return equation—especially for investors tracking per-share outcomes. [26]
Bottom line: NAB stock is acting like a premium-priced bank in a market questioning premiums
As of 24 December 2025, National Australia Bank stock is trading around A$42, paying a fully franked dividend (FY25 total 170c), and coming off a year where profit was broadly stable and margins nudged higher—but analyst targets cluster below the current share price, and several commentators keep circling the same word: valuation. [27]
If NAB executes cleanly—protecting margins, containing costs, keeping credit losses tame—the stock can still behave like a “steady” compounder. But at today’s pricing, investors appear to be paying up for that steadiness, which leaves less room for surprises.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.asx.com.au, 4. www.abc.net.au, 5. company-announcements.afr.com, 6. company-announcements.afr.com, 7. www.asx.com.au, 8. www.nab.com.au, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.nab.com.au, 11. www.nab.com.au, 12. www.nab.com.au, 13. www.nab.com.au, 14. www.nab.com.au, 15. www.nab.com.au, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.tradingview.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. www.morningstar.com.au, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.abc.net.au, 23. www.nab.com.au, 24. www.nab.com.au, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. company-announcements.afr.com, 27. stockanalysis.com
