December 24, 2025 — Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) is ending 2025 with the kind of chart action that makes both traders and long-term biotech investors sit up straight. After a sharp multi-day run, Moderna stock pulled back hard: shares closed at about $32.29 on Dec. 23, down ~7.48% on the day, and were indicated around $32.11 in pre-market trading on Dec. 24. [1]
That drop matters—but so does the context. The pullback follows a late-December surge that coincided with multiple headlines touching Moderna’s near-term product story (respiratory vaccines), its longer-term optionality (oncology and next-gen platforms), and its financial runway (new funding and cost cuts).
Below is what investors are watching right now—and why Moderna stock is moving so violently into year-end.
Why Moderna stock is moving: a rally, then a reset
Moderna shares didn’t drift lower in slow motion—they whipped around.
Recent closes show the setup clearly:
- Dec. 19: MRNA closed ~$33.80 (a big up day)
- Dec. 22: MRNA closed ~$34.90
- Dec. 23: MRNA closed ~$32.29 (down ~7.48%) [2]
In other words: a momentum run into the mid-$30s, then a sharp giveback.
This happened even as the broader market had its own reasons to celebrate—U.S. stocks pushed higher on Dec. 23, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high, while Moderna was singled out as a notable decliner after its prior gains. [3]
Year-end liquidity, profit-taking, and crowded positioning can exaggerate moves like this—especially in a name that sits at the intersection of biotech risk and macro sentiment.
The headline catalyst investors keep coming back to: CEPI bird flu funding (and a Phase 3 start in early 2026)
One of the most market-relevant Moderna headlines this month came from Reuters on Dec. 18: Moderna secured up to $54.3 million in funding from CEPI (Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations) to support late-stage development of its experimental bird flu vaccine, mRNA‑1018. [4]
Key details investors are tracking:
- Moderna said the vaccine would be the first mRNA-based bird flu vaccine to enter a pivotal trial. [5]
- The late-stage trial is expected to begin in early 2026 in the UK and the U.S. [6]
- Moderna also said it would reserve 20% of its production capacity for low- and middle-income countries, tied to access commitments if a pandemic occurs. [7]
Why this matters for MRNA stock: it reinforces the bull case that Moderna’s platform still has “pandemic preparedness” value outside COVID—and that third-party funding can partially offset the company’s own capital requirements.
A number of market recaps explicitly linked Moderna’s big up-days around Dec. 19 to this CEPI backing. [8]
mNEXSPIKE in Europe: EMA documentation and a path to a bigger commercial story
Another major late-December focus is Moderna’s next-generation COVID vaccine mNEXSPIKE (mRNA‑1283).
The European Medicines Agency (EMA) published information dated Dec. 12, 2025 describing the product and its indication: active immunisation to prevent COVID‑19 in individuals 12 years of age and older, subject to official recommendations. [9]
Meanwhile, market coverage has emphasized that the EMA’s CHMP issued a positive opinion recommending authorization, with a final European Commission decision expected after that (the normal EU process flow). [10]
Why this matters for Moderna stock now:
- Moderna is trying to defend (and modernize) its COVID franchise with new formulations and a more commercially competitive product profile.
- In a world where COVID demand is smaller and more seasonal, incremental share gains—and better logistics—can matter.
Reuters has also tied Moderna’s 2026 growth narrative directly to U.S. demand for mNEXSPIKE and to international partnerships. [11]
The financial runway story: a $1.5B loan, cost cuts, and a stated break-even target
Moderna’s commercial transition (from pandemic windfall to multi-product biotech) has been rough—investors know that. What’s changed recently is that Moderna has been much more explicit about runway and discipline.
In a Nov. 20 Reuters report, Moderna said it secured a five-year $1.5 billion loan from Ares Management, with $600 million drawn upfront and additional delayed-draw availability through 2027 and 2028. [12]
That same Reuters report also captured several market-moving claims:
- Moderna said it targets up to 10% revenue growth in 2026. [13]
- It expects $1.6B–$2.0B in sales for 2025. [14]
- The company expects to cut $500M from expenses in both 2026 and 2027, and is working toward a goal of breaking even in 2028. [15]
For equity investors, this is the core debate: Does Moderna’s cash burn shrink fast enough while new products ramp, or does the company need more financing (and potentially dilution) before it reaches sustainable profitability?
Manufacturing strategy: “end-to-end” U.S. control and a $140M investment
Moderna also put a flag in the ground on manufacturing control.
In a Nov. 19 Reuters report, Moderna said it would invest more than $140 million to add the final step—fill-finish manufacturing—at its Norwood, Massachusetts facility, aiming for completion in the first half of 2027. [16]
Investors tend to read this two ways:
- Positive: better control, potentially improved margins and speed, less dependence on contractors.
- Cautionary: more capital spending while the company is still lossmaking.
Either way, it supports the narrative that Moderna is building for a world beyond Spikevax.
Insider and employee-equity headlines: CEO option exercise and an employee option exchange
CEO option exercise (filed with the SEC)
On the insider front, an SEC Form 4 shows Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel acquired 688,073 shares via option exercise on Dec. 11, 2025, at an exercise price of $10.90. [17]
Importantly for interpretation: this filing reflects exercise, not necessarily an open-market buy, and it is not the same as a discretionary “I’m bullish” purchase. But traders often watch insider activity closely, especially during volatile stretches.
Employee stock option exchange results
Separately, Moderna’s employee option exchange program produced concrete, SEC-documented numbers.
An SEC Schedule TO filing states the offer expired on Dec. 12, 2025, with 2,865 eligible holders participating. The company accepted options covering 4,328,461 shares (about 79.9% of eligible option shares). [18]
Why this can matter for investors: option exchanges can reduce underwater-option overhang and help retention—but they can also raise questions about historical grant prices and employee morale after a long share-price decline.
Moderna stock forecast: what Wall Street targets imply right now
“Forecast” gets abused online, so let’s be precise: sell-side price targets are not guarantees—they’re scenario-driven estimates.
As of late Dec. 2025, aggregated analyst data compiled by StockAnalysis shows:
- Consensus rating:Hold
- Average 12-month price target:$33.25
- Target range:$18 (low) to $63 (high) [19]
The same compilation lists several notable recent updates:
- Morgan Stanley: maintained Hold, $30 → $28 (Dec. 12, 2025) [20]
- Jefferies: initiated Hold, $30 (Dec. 12, 2025) [21]
- Piper Sandler: reiterated Buy, $69 → $63 (Nov. 21, 2025) [22]
- RBC Capital: maintained Hold, $28 → $25 (Nov. 21, 2025) [23]
On fundamentals, the same dataset shows consensus-style expectations for Moderna remaining loss-making near term, with estimates such as:
- Revenue (FY2025): about $1.94B
- Revenue (FY2026): about $1.95B
- EPS (FY2025): about -8.31
- EPS (FY2026): about -7.23 [24]
Those numbers broadly line up with the “transition year(s)” view: revenue stabilizing before a bigger product-cycle inflection.
Sentiment check: short interest stays elevated, amplifying volatility risk
Moderna has also become a high-short-interest stock, and that changes the trading behavior.
Data trackers have shown short interest around the high teens to ~20% of float in late 2025—for example, MarketBeat cites ~68.08M shares sold short and roughly ~19.55% of float as of a late-November snapshot. [25]
Financial press has also called Moderna one of the most heavily shorted names in large-cap healthcare, reflecting skepticism about the post-pandemic vaccine market and Moderna’s path back to profitability. [26]
High short interest doesn’t automatically mean “short squeeze incoming.” It does mean that good news can travel faster (short covering) and bad news can cascade harder (momentum + risk controls), which fits the stock’s late-December swings.
The bull case for Moderna stock: platform optionality plus multiple 2026–2028 catalysts
A credible bull thesis in late 2025 usually leans on four pillars:
- Respiratory franchise expansion
- mNEXSPIKE’s progress in Europe and expectations for demand in the U.S. are part of the “defend and extend” COVID story. [27]
- Pandemic preparedness tailwinds
- CEPI’s bird flu funding and a pivotal trial start in early 2026 keep Moderna in the conversation for rapid-response vaccine development—an area where mRNA has structural speed advantages. [28]
- Runway and cost discipline
- The Ares loan facility plus stated expense trims and a break-even target give investors a framework to model the “bridge” years. [29]
- Oncology optionality (high upside, high uncertainty)
- Moderna and Merck continue to push mRNA-4157/V940 trials, including Phase 3 programs in melanoma and lung cancer, among others. [30]
The bear case: demand uncertainty, competition, and the reality of losses
The skeptical view is also coherent:
- COVID demand is structurally lower than during the pandemic, and that’s a permanent reset.
- Moderna’s RSV product competes against entrenched players; Reuters has noted sales lagging competing RSV vaccines from Pfizer and GSK. [31]
- Moderna remains loss-making and must execute on cost cuts while still funding an ambitious pipeline.
- Biotech pipelines are a probabilistic minefield: delays, trial failures, and regulatory surprises are always on the menu.
If the bull case is “the platform will keep paying dividends,” the bear case is “the market for those dividends is smaller, slower, and more competitive than the 2020–2021 era trained investors to expect.”
What to watch next for MRNA (Moderna stock) into early 2026
Here are the most concrete, near-term items that could move Moderna stock in either direction:
- EU decision timeline for mNEXSPIKE following the CHMP/EMA process steps. [32]
- Bird flu (mRNA‑1018) Phase 3 preparations, with the late-stage trial expected to begin in early 2026. [33]
- Next earnings window: many calendars peg Moderna’s next report for mid-February 2026 (dates are typically estimates until confirmed by the company). [34]
- Any additional clarity on the 2026 revenue-growth plan and expense reductions, especially as investors stress-test Moderna’s break-even-by-2028 target. [35]
Bottom line
As of Dec. 24, 2025, Moderna stock sits in a classic “transitional biotech” tension:
- The legacy COVID cash machine is smaller and harder to predict.
- The next wave—mNEXSPIKE, broader respiratory combos, pandemic flu, and oncology—contains real catalysts, but also real execution risk.
- The market is trying to price those probabilities in real time, which is why MRNA trades like a voting machine on headlines and a weighing machine only over quarters.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.wsj.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.kiplinger.com, 9. www.ema.europa.eu, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.ft.com, 27. www.ema.europa.eu, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.merck.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.nasdaq.com, 35. www.reuters.com
