December 24, 2025
Robinhood Markets, Inc. stock (NASDAQ: HOOD) is trading in a holiday-shortened Christmas Eve session, with markets set to close early and volumes expected to stay thin. In that kind of tape, even modest moves in crypto prices and risk appetite can show up quickly across retail-brokerage and crypto-exposed names—especially a stock like Robinhood, which has become one of 2025’s standout momentum stories.
Below is what investors are tracking as of Dec. 24, 2025, across the major news wires and widely-circulated research/market notes: recent catalysts, today’s trading context, and the latest analyst targets and valuation debates shaping the HOOD narrative. [1]
Robinhood stock price today: where HOOD stands on Dec. 24, 2025
Robinhood shares are hovering around the $119–$120 area in morning trading on Dec. 24, after a prior close near $120.25 (quotes vary slightly by venue and timestamp). [2]
The stock’s 52-week range has been wide—roughly $29–$154—underscoring just how dramatic the 2025 move has been. [3]
Why Robinhood shares are moving today: thin holiday tape + crypto sensitivity
Two forces are dominating the Christmas Eve setup:
- Shortened trading session, lighter liquidity. Reuters reports U.S. stock markets are scheduled to close at 1 p.m. ET on Dec. 24, with volumes likely to remain thin into the holiday. In low-liquidity sessions, “stock movers” lists often matter more than usual because positioning can be exaggerated. [4]
- Crypto tone is slightly softer. Investopedia flagged Bitcoin trading a bit lower (around $87,300) early, which can weigh on crypto-linked equities. Barron’s also noted that crypto-related stocks, including Robinhood, were showing minor losses alongside the dip in Bitcoin. [5]
This doesn’t mean today’s price action is “the story.” On days like this, many investors are using the tape as a quick sentiment check—then returning to the bigger questions: can Robinhood keep compounding revenue and profits after a historic run, and can newer product lines (like prediction markets) become durable businesses rather than cyclical spikes?
The bigger story behind HOOD’s 2025 surge: profits, volumes, and a broader product mix
One reason HOOD has stayed in focus through late 2025 is that the company’s fundamentals have been moving with the stock—particularly around trading engagement across crypto, options, and equities.
In early November, Reuters reported Robinhood topped third-quarter profit estimates, with profit nearly quadrupling to $556 million (about $0.61 per share) for Q3 ended Sept. 30, versus analyst expectations of $0.53 per share (LSEG-compiled). [6]
Reuters also highlighted that Robinhood’s transaction-based revenue more than doubled to $730 million, with equities revenue up 132%, crypto revenue up 300%, and options revenue up 50%—a snapshot of just how diversified the engagement drivers were versus earlier “single-product” periods. [7]
Alongside the strong quarter, Reuters reported a key management development: CFO Jason Warnick is set to retire from the CFO role in 2026, with the company naming Shiv Verma as successor. [8]
For investors, the late-2025 debate is less about whether Robinhood “participated” in markets momentum—and more about whether it has built a platform that can keep growing even if retail risk appetite cools.
Prediction markets are becoming a real catalyst for Robinhood—and a real risk
One of the most watched newer growth vectors is Robinhood’s push into event contracts / prediction markets.
On Dec. 17, Reuters reported Robinhood rolled out sports-focused event contracts that let customers wager on individual player performance (for example, touchdowns, passing/rushing yards), not just game outcomes. Reuters noted Robinhood also introduced “preset combos” that tie multiple predictions into one contract. [9]
Why it matters
- Differentiation: Robinhood wants to stand out in a space Reuters says is drawing a wave of new entrants. [10]
- Regulatory tension: Reuters also flagged that some state regulators are seeking tougher oversight, while industry participants argue the contracts are regulated by and compliant with the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). [11]
- Market growth claims are getting huge: Reuters cited a report (Keyrock + Dune) saying the monthly value of trades in prediction markets has climbed to over $13 billion, up from less than $100 million in early 2024. [12]
That combination—fast-growing activity plus regulatory scrutiny—is exactly the kind of setup that can become a meaningful stock catalyst in 2026, in either direction.
Indonesia expansion: Robinhood’s next international swing
Another late-2025 headline with real strategic weight is Robinhood’s move into Southeast Asia.
On Dec. 8, Reuters reported Robinhood will acquire Indonesian brokerage firm Buana Capital Sekuritas and licensed digital asset trader Pedagang Aset Kripto, marking entry into what Reuters described as a major regional crypto hub. Financial terms were not disclosed, and Reuters reported the deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026. [13]
Reuters also pointed to the size of the opportunity: Indonesia has more than 19 million capital market investors and 17 million cryptocurrency traders. [14]
For HOOD shareholders, the key question isn’t just “international growth.” It’s execution: regulation, localization, brand trust, and whether Robinhood can export its product velocity without importing new compliance headaches.
Today’s corporate headline: Robinhood and “Trump accounts” matching program
A widely circulated market note late Dec. 23 into Dec. 24: Robinhood says it will match the U.S. federal government’s $1,000 contribution to “Trump accounts” for eligible employees with newborn children, according to a TipRanks write-up republished on Markets Insider/Business Insider. [15]
That note described Trump accounts as tax-deferred savings programs for children, with eligibility tied to children born between Jan. 1, 2025 and the end of 2028 (with a Social Security number) for the federal seeding described in the item. [16]
From a stock perspective, this is unlikely to be a near-term earnings driver. But it has two softer impacts investors sometimes care about:
- Employer brand / recruiting narrative (especially in fintech talent wars)
- Political/PR risk (depending on how the program is framed in public discussion)
Barron’s also summarized the same theme, noting Charles Schwab and Robinhood matching the government contribution. [17]
Analyst forecasts for HOOD: price targets are high, but not aligned
If you’re trying to understand where Wall Street “thinks” HOOD should trade, the first thing to know is that consensus targets vary meaningfully by data provider and methodology.
Consensus snapshots (as of Dec. 24, 2025)
- MarketBeat: consensus “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $137.30, with a $47–$180 range. [18]
- StockAnalysis: consensus rating “Buy” with an average price target around $121.14, also showing a $47–$180 range. [19]
- TipRanks (via Markets Insider item): consensus Moderate Buy among 22 analysts, with an average target of $152.16 (per that specific note). [20]
These aren’t “contradictions” so much as different underlying analyst universes, refresh timing, and aggregation rules. The practical takeaway: the Street is broadly constructive—but there’s a wide spread between cautious and aggressive cases.
Recent research actions and target changes (late Dec. 2025)
StockAnalysis lists several notable December moves, including:
- Morgan Stanley: maintained Hold, nudged target $146 → $147 (dated Dec. 22, 2025) [21]
- Truist Securities: initiated Strong Buy with a $155 target (dated Dec. 17, 2025) [22]
- Barclays: maintained Buy, raised target $168 → $171 (dated Dec. 12, 2025) [23]
TipRanks/Markets Insider also highlighted the Morgan Stanley move in a separate item flow. [24]
The bear case getting louder: “priced for perfection” valuation math
After a massive year, valuation skepticism is a feature, not a bug.
A Simply Wall St analysis published Dec. 24 argues Robinhood screens as materially overvalued under its “Excess Returns” framework, estimating a fair value around $43/share and suggesting the stock is roughly 179.9% overvalued versus the market price at the time of publication. [25]
The same piece also pointed to a high P/E multiple relative to industry and peers as another “overvalued” signal in its approach. [26]
This doesn’t “prove” the stock must fall—high-growth platforms can trade at premium multiples for a long time. But it does clarify what bulls are implicitly underwriting:
- continued strong customer growth and engagement
- sustained (or rising) monetization per user
- successful scaling of newer lines like prediction markets
- fewer regulatory disruptions than skeptics expect
Options sentiment check: what derivatives markets implied heading into Christmas Eve
One of the more technical reads circulating in the Dec. 24 news flow is an options-sentiment brief republished by Markets Insider.
That note described:
- about 152k options contracts traded (relatively light volume)
- calls leading puts, with put/call ratio around 0.5 vs a typical ~0.57
- implied volatility (IV30) near 51.56, in the lowest 10% of the past year
- an implied expected daily move of about $3.89 [27]
Interpretation (without over-reading it): options markets weren’t pricing an unusually large near-term shock into the holiday, even as the stock remains volatile over longer windows.
Institutional and insider tape: filings highlight both buying and selling
Beyond headlines, some investors watch filings for a “who’s leaning in?” signal.
A MarketBeat filing-focused roundup published Dec. 24 reported Yousif Capital Management increased its Robinhood stake sharply in Q3 (as reported in its SEC disclosure), and also noted that insiders have been net sellers recently. [28]
This kind of data is backward-looking and doesn’t predict price by itself—but in a momentum stock, it can shape sentiment, especially if investors start asking whether the easiest part of the rerating is over.
Key risks to watch for HOOD into 2026
Even bulls typically acknowledge Robinhood carries a unique blend of platform and regulatory risk:
- Prediction markets oversight and legal complexity. Reuters explicitly flagged regulator interest and the debate over whether event contracts resemble sports betting, even as industry participants point to CFTC regulation. [29]
- Crypto sensitivity. Day-to-day, HOOD can still trade like a “crypto sentiment” proxy, as today’s Bitcoin-linked move illustrates. [30]
- Cost discipline vs growth investment. Reuters reported Robinhood raised its 2025 adjusted operating expense forecast to about $2.28 billion (including stock-based compensation). [31]
- International execution risk. Indonesia expansion could be a long-term growth lever, but it requires careful regulatory navigation and integration. [32]
What to watch next: the catalysts that could define HOOD’s early-2026 narrative
With Christmas-week trading distorted by the calendar, many investors will refocus in January on a clearer set of forward indicators:
- Prediction-markets product expansion and any regulatory developments (state-level actions, CFTC posture, competitor moves) [33]
- Progress and clarity on the Indonesia acquisition closing timeline (still expected in H1 2026, per Reuters) [34]
- Analyst target revisions after year-end positioning and ahead of the next earnings cycle (recent December actions show targets moving higher) [35]
- Whether crypto conditions stay supportive—because HOOD still tends to react when Bitcoin sentiment shifts [36]
Bottom line: On Dec. 24, 2025, Robinhood stock is less about a single headline and more about a high-expectations platform story in a thin holiday session: strong 2025 fundamentals and new growth vectors (prediction markets, international expansion) on one side, and a valuation debate that’s getting sharper on the other. [37]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. markets.businessinsider.com, 3. markets.businessinsider.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. markets.businessinsider.com, 16. markets.businessinsider.com, 17. www.barrons.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. markets.businessinsider.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. markets.businessinsider.com, 25. simplywall.st, 26. simplywall.st, 27. markets.businessinsider.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.investopedia.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. stockanalysis.com, 36. www.investopedia.com, 37. www.reuters.com
