Merck & Company, Inc. stock is ending 2025 on a strong note. On December 24, 2025, shares of Merck (MRK) pushed to a fresh 12‑month high around the $106 level, extending a powerful late‑year rally that has put the pharma bellwether back in the spotlight. [1]
This move isn’t happening in a vacuum. Today’s MRK price action sits at the intersection of three market themes that have dominated Merck headlines into Christmas Eve:
- Analysts turning more constructive about Merck’s ability to grow beyond the Keytruda “patent cliff” later this decade
- U.S. drug‑pricing policy uncertainty shifting after a Trump administration agreement involving Merck and other big drugmakers
- Pipeline and regulatory catalysts accelerating, including FDA fast‑track actions and ongoing momentum in newer launches like WINREVAIR [2]
Below is a comprehensive, publication-ready roundup of the current news, forecasts, and analysis investors are reading as of December 24, 2025, and what it could mean for MRK in 2026.
Merck stock today: where MRK is trading and why the new high matters
By midday on December 24, MRK was trading near $106, with reports noting an intraday high in the $106.4–$106.6 range and a new 52‑week/12‑month high print. [3]
The bigger story is the trend:
- A valuation-focused note published today highlighted that MRK has gained roughly 30%+ over the last three months, bringing the stock’s valuation “back in focus” after a strong run. [4]
- A separate market update also framed the move as a milestone for a defensive mega-cap: a new high tends to pull in both momentum buyers and longer-term investors reassessing fundamentals and forward earnings power. [5]
In other words, the market isn’t just reacting to one headline. It’s repricing Merck’s next two to five years—especially how the company navigates the period leading up to, and following, Keytruda’s loss of exclusivity in 2028, which remains the central strategic question for MRK. [6]
The biggest MRK headline investors are still digesting: TrumpRx drug-pricing agreement
A major policy catalyst hit late last week and continues to reverberate in pharma stocks: the Trump administration announced agreements with nine large drugmakers—including Merck—to lower prices on many medicines sold to Medicaid and to expand direct-to-consumer options through the planned TrumpRx platform. [7]
What Merck specifically agreed to do
According to Reuters, Merck said it will sell Januvia, Janumet, and Janumet XR directly to U.S. consumers at about 70% off list prices, and—if approved—its investigational cholesterol drug enlicitide could also be offered through direct-to-consumer channels, including TrumpRx. [8]
Merck’s own statement positioned the deal as an “historic agreement” aimed at affordability and access, while also emphasizing more than $70 billion in U.S. investments tied to domestic production and innovation. [9]
Why the stock market didn’t treat this as purely negative
The knee-jerk reaction to “drug prices down” might be bearish, but this news flow landed differently for investors. Reuters reported that shares of most participating drugmakers rose (roughly 1%–3%) as the market weighed a three‑year tariff exemption and interpreted the practical economics as less disruptive than feared. [10]
For MRK stock specifically, the agreement intersects with an already-known reality: Merck’s diabetes franchise around Januvia/Janumet has been facing pressure from policy changes and competition, and the market has largely been shifting its focus toward Merck’s oncology and next‑gen launches. [11]
FDA fast-track news: priority vouchers for Merck’s enlicitide and sac-TMT
Another late-December catalyst supporting sentiment is the FDA’s “speed lane.”
Reuters reported that the U.S. FDA granted Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher status to two Merck programs:
- Enlicitide (a cholesterol-lowering pill candidate)
- sac-TMT (an antibody-drug conjugate cancer therapy)
The voucher program can cut FDA review to one to two months, versus a more typical 10–12 months timeline—an acceleration investors care about when modeling launch timing and revenue ramps. [12]
Why enlicitide is strategically important
Merck is pitching enlicitide as potentially the first approved oral PCSK9 inhibitor, designed to deliver “antibody-like efficacy” in a daily pill. In Phase 3 CORALreef HeFH, Merck said enlicitide delivered a 59.4% LDL‑C reduction vs placebo at week 24 in adults with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. [13]
From an MRK stock perspective, enlicitide has the potential to become one of those “non-oncology” growth drivers that helps Merck diversify revenue as Keytruda matures.
Why sac-TMT matters for the Keytruda era
Reuters described sac-TMT as part of the booming antibody‑drug conjugate (ADC) class, and reported Merck’s effort to strengthen its oncology pipeline through partnerships and funding. [14]
In November, Reuters also reported Merck secured $700 million in funding from Blackstone Life Sciences to support development of sac‑TMT across multiple late-stage trials, with Blackstone eligible for royalties if U.S. approval is achieved. [15]
WINREVAIR remains a key bull thesis pillar going into 2026
Merck’s newer pulmonary arterial hypertension therapy WINREVAIR (sotatercept) continues to feature prominently in both company updates and third-party MRK analysis.
On December 12, Merck announced the EMA’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) recommended an expanded indication for WINREVAIR in Europe, allowing use (in combination with other PAH therapies) across WHO functional class II, III, and IV. Merck said a final European Commission decision is expected in Q1 2026. [16]
Regulatory documentation from the European Medicines Agency also reflects the CHMP positive opinion and the broadened indication language. [17]
Merck’s release also underscored clinical strength: the company cited Phase 3 ZENITH results showing a 76% reduction in the risk of major morbidity and mortality outcomes in high‑risk PAH patients when WINREVAIR was added to background therapy. [18]
Why investors care: WINREVAIR is widely seen as one of Merck’s most important “next engines” of growth—exactly the type of product investors want to see scaling before Keytruda’s exclusivity winds down.
Keytruda strategy: making the franchise more durable ahead of the 2028 patent cliff
Even as Wall Street talks about the Keytruda patent cliff, Merck has been executing on life‑cycle strategies designed to defend and extend the franchise.
A notable step: the FDA approved pembrolizumab and berahyaluronidase alfa-pmph (Keytruda Qlex) for subcutaneous injection on September 19, 2025, for adult and pediatric (12+) solid tumor indications already approved for IV pembrolizumab. [19]
Merck also announced in November that the European Commission approved a subcutaneous route of administration for Keytruda across adult indications approved in the EU, highlighting administration that can be as fast as one minute every three weeks (or two minutes every six weeks). [20]
This matters for MRK stock because it speaks to a familiar pharma playbook: product improvements and new formulations can help retain share and support pricing power even as competitive dynamics intensify.
Analyst forecasts on December 24: price targets are widening, but optimism is rising
Today’s MRK coverage also reflects a more constructive Wall Street tone—though not uniform agreement.
MarketBeat snapshot: consensus Hold with upside skew
A widely circulated market note today reported:
- MRK hit a new 52‑week high (around $106.48)
- Analysts show a consensus “Hold” rating with an average price target of about $110.13
- Some firms have issued materially higher targets, including $125 (Wells Fargo) and $120 (Bank of America) following recent updates [21]
That “Hold” consensus alongside higher-end targets is a classic sign of a stock in transition: the market sees improvement, but still needs proof that the next wave of products can carry growth at scale.
BMO’s bullish call: Outperform and $130 price target
One of the most cited upgrades in this late‑December MRK move came from BMO Capital Markets, which upgraded Merck to Outperform and raised its price target to $130, citing confidence in Merck’s ability to prepare for “life after Keytruda” and a view that sentiment is improving—particularly after the Gardasil overhang in China weighed on expectations. [22]
BMO also highlighted potential 2026 catalysts, including additional clinical data tied to sotatercept programs and updates from Merck’s HIV work involving islatravir, while pointing to newer products as growth drivers. [23]
Valuation, dividend, and what income investors are watching
MRK’s surge to new highs is happening while Merck still looks, on some metrics, like a classic “reasonable valuation + dividend” pharma name.
A December 24 market update pegged Merck around a mid‑teens P/E and noted the stock trading at an “attractive” multiple relative to expected growth. [24]
On the income side, Merck’s board declared a $0.85 quarterly dividend for Q1 2026, with payment scheduled for January 8, 2026 to shareholders of record as of December 15, 2025. [25]
For some investors, the combination of an improving growth narrative plus a meaningful dividend yield is exactly what can power a “re-rating” in a defensive sector—especially when broader markets are uncertain.
The bear case: Keytruda, pricing pressure, and why policy risk still matters
Even with MRK near highs, today’s most credible analyses continue to flag real headwinds.
A Nasdaq-hosted analysis of Merck headwinds emphasized that:
- Medicare Part D redesign under the Inflation Reduction Act is already affecting the landscape
- Januvia was selected for government-set pricing effective 2026
- Janumet and Janumet XR were selected for pricing effective 2027
- Keytruda is expected (in that analysis) to be selected in 2027, with price setting effective 2029, potentially impacting U.S. sales after that [26]
This is why the TrumpRx agreement, while providing clarity in one lane (tariff relief and a defined program), doesn’t eliminate pricing risk overall. It simply reshapes it.
Meanwhile, independent valuation commentary published today warned that Merck still faces the Keytruda exclusivity loss risk and cited softening Gardasil demand in China as a factor that could challenge the “modest undervaluation” thesis if expectations re-accelerate too quickly. [27]
What to watch next for Merck stock in 2026
For investors tracking MRK into the new year, several dated milestones and likely catalysts stand out:
- January 8, 2026: Merck’s $0.85 quarterly dividend payment date [28]
- Q1 2026: Expected close window for Merck’s acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics (as reported by Reuters in November), a deal tied to a long‑acting experimental flu drug candidate Merck believes could represent over $5 billion in commercial opportunity [29]
- April 2026 (expected): Reuters reported the FDA expects Merck to submit an application for enlicitide around April (timing referenced in reporting on the priority voucher pathway) [30]
- Late 2026: Reuters reporting also framed sac‑TMT as a later submission candidate (late 2026), with Merck continuing late-stage evaluation across multiple tumors [31]
- Europe, Q1 2026: A final European Commission decision on WINREVAIR’s expanded EU use following the CHMP recommendation [32]
Bottom line for December 24, 2025: why MRK is moving now
Merck stock’s run to a new 52‑week high on December 24 looks like the market stitching together several threads:
- Policy risk is being repriced, with investors treating the TrumpRx agreement as a headline-friendly reset rather than an immediate earnings shock, in part due to tariff certainty and the belief that many rebates/discounts already existed in practice. [33]
- Pipeline optionality is improving, especially through accelerated FDA review dynamics and the continued emergence of WINREVAIR as a meaningful new franchise. [34]
- Sell-side sentiment is turning, with higher-end targets (and a standout $130 call from BMO) helping validate the idea that Merck can build a post‑Keytruda growth portfolio. [35]
At the same time, the market’s optimism remains conditional: the Keytruda transition, pricing policy, and execution on newer launches will determine whether this breakout above prior highs becomes a sustainable trend—or a year-end spike.
If you want, I can also produce a second version formatted in a stricter wire-service style (shorter paragraphs, tighter attribution, and less commentary) while keeping the same December 24, 2025 facts and citations.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. simplywall.st, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.merck.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.merck.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.merck.com, 17. www.ema.europa.eu, 18. www.merck.com, 19. www.fda.gov, 20. www.merck.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.merck.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com, 27. simplywall.st, 28. www.merck.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.merck.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.investing.com
