Intel Corporation stock (NASDAQ: INTC) traded lower on Wednesday, December 24, 2025, as investors digested a fresh headline that strikes at the heart of Intel’s turnaround narrative: whether its next-generation manufacturing technology is ready to win — and keep — the world’s biggest chip designers. INTC was last around $35.97, down about 1% on the day, after swinging between $34.48 and $36.49 in a holiday-thinned session.
The timing matters. Christmas Eve trading in the U.S. was shortened, volumes were lighter than usual, and the broader market tone was relatively calm — even upbeat — with the S&P 500 touching an intraday record high as “Santa rally” chatter returned. But Intel moved to its own drumbeat, reacting primarily to company-specific manufacturing and customer-validation signals. [1]
What’s driving Intel stock today on December 24, 2025
The immediate catalyst: a Reuters-reported development that Nvidia recently tested Intel’s “18A” production process but “stopped moving forward,” according to people familiar with the matter. Intel said its 18A manufacturing technologies are “progressing well,” and pointed to continued interest in its next-generation process, 14A. [2]
Multiple market outlets amplified the same core point: Intel shares fell after the report that Nvidia halted the 18A test. [3]
Why a single Nvidia headline can move INTC
Nvidia isn’t just another potential foundry customer. In the current market, it’s a barometer of what elite chip designers will tolerate on performance, yield, cost, and time-to-volume. So even testing news can swing sentiment — and a report suggesting the test paused can do the opposite.
There’s also an important nuance investors are re-learning: Nvidia’s investment in Intel did not automatically equal a manufacturing commitment. Reuters’ reporting notes Nvidia made no commitment to manufacture with Intel when it invested. [4]
The bigger context: Intel’s 2025 rally has been built on deals, policy, and manufacturing credibility
Intel’s stock has had a dramatic 2025. Reuters’ profile of CEO Lip-Bu Tan describes Intel shares as rising roughly 80% since his appointment, helped by a mix of cost-cutting, dealmaking, and a re-rating tied to U.S. industrial policy priorities. [5]
In that same reporting, Reuters details how Tan navigated political headwinds and landed a U.S. government commitment to take a large equity position in Intel — a milestone that effectively reframed Intel as a strategic national asset in the semiconductor supply chain. [6]
The U.S. government stake in Intel: what’s actually been announced
Intel’s own disclosure lays out the structure:
- The U.S. government will make an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock. [7]
- The equity stake is funded by $5.7 billion in remaining CHIPS Act grants (previously awarded but not yet paid) plus $3.2 billion from the Secure Enclave program. [8]
- The government agreed to purchase 433.3 million primary shares at $20.47 per share, equivalent to a 9.9% stake. [9]
- Intel said the stake is passive, with no board representation or governance/information rights, and the government agrees to vote with the board on most matters (with limited exceptions). [10]
- Intel also disclosed a five-year warrant (at $20 per share) for an additional 5% of shares, exercisable only if Intel stops owning at least 51% of the foundry business. [11]
This framework is unusual for a public mega-cap tech company — and it’s one reason Intel’s equity story has started to trade not only on earnings and products, but also on industrial policy and “strategic capacity” expectations.
Where 18A fits: Intel’s manufacturing roadmap is the stock’s fulcrum
The market reaction to the Nvidia/18A headline makes sense because Intel has positioned advanced manufacturing leadership as the key to its long-term re-acceleration — not only for Intel-branded CPUs, but also for Intel Foundry as an external manufacturing service.
In Intel’s Q3 2025 results release, the company highlighted several 18A-linked milestones:
- Panther Lake (Core Ultra series 3) is described as Intel’s first client SoC architecture built on Intel 18A. [12]
- Intel gave a first look at Clearwater Forest (Xeon 6+), its next-generation server product on Intel 18A. [13]
- Intel said Fab 52 at its Ocotillo campus in Chandler, Arizona became fully operational and manufactures Intel 18A wafers, described as the most advanced logic wafers developed and produced in the U.S. [14]
That’s the bull-case foundation: scale 18A internally, prove it in shipping products, and then convert credibility into foundry customers.
But Reuters has also reported in the past that advanced-node tests by major chip designers are not guarantees of high-volume contracts — and that Intel’s foundry ambitions have faced delays and skepticism across the ecosystem. [15]
Today’s headline in plain English: what Nvidia pausing 18A testing could mean
Because neither company laid out a detailed technical explanation publicly, investors are left interpreting second-order signals.
Here are the most important “investor takeaways” from what’s been reported — without assuming motives that haven’t been confirmed:
- External validation still isn’t “locked.” Even after a year in which Intel highlighted 18A progress, the market still treats marquee-customer endorsement as a gating item for Intel Foundry’s revenue mix and margin story. [16]
- The Nvidia relationship is real — but multifaceted. Intel’s recent disclosures describe Nvidia collaboration spanning data center and PC products, and also note Nvidia’s $5.0 billion investment in Intel stock. That doesn’t automatically translate into foundry wafer volume. [17]
- Intel is already signaling 14A is critical. Reuters’ December 24 profile notes Intel is emphasizing interest in 14A alongside 18A, and earlier Reuters reporting has described how Intel’s willingness to keep investing in future nodes can depend on landing significant customers. [18]
The December 24 market backdrop: early close, record index levels, Intel-specific weakness
While Intel was down, the broader tape was constructive. Reuters reported the S&P 500 hit an intraday record high in the shortened session, with U.S. markets set to close at 1 p.m. ET and remain shut on Christmas Day. [19]
In that same Reuters market report, Intel was explicitly called out as a decliner after the Nvidia-18A testing headline. [20]
Barron’s “stocks moving today” roundup similarly highlighted Intel’s decline on the report that Nvidia opted not to use Intel’s chip manufacturing after testing, a notable datapoint in thin holiday trading. [21]
Intel earnings and near-term fundamentals: what the company last guided
To anchor the stock story in fundamentals (not just headlines), Intel’s Q3 2025 report included:
- Q3 revenue: $13.7 billion (up 3% YoY) [22]
- Q3 non-GAAP EPS: $0.23 [23]
- Q4 2025 guidance: revenue $12.8B to $13.8B, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.08 (guidance excludes Altera following the majority stake sale completed in Q3). [24]
Intel also explicitly tied its improved flexibility to “accelerated funding” from the U.S. government and investments by Nvidia and SoftBank — reinforcing how central capital and policy have become to the Intel narrative. [25]
INTC stock forecasts: analysts see a wide range, reflecting high uncertainty
Wall Street’s message on Intel remains mixed — and the dispersion is the story.
Across widely followed consensus compilations:
- Value-focused consensus trackers show an average 12‑month target around $37.52, with a very wide range from roughly $18 on the low end to the mid‑$50s on the high end, alongside a Hold consensus recommendation. [26]
- MarketBeat’s compilation similarly shows a broad spread, with an average target in the mid‑$30s and highs in the low‑$50s. [27]
- Other aggregators show lower averages (low‑$30s) and explicitly note that target sets can be stale or last updated earlier in Q4, which is a reminder to check timestamp freshness when using consensus numbers. [28]
How to interpret the forecast spread
This isn’t just analysts disagreeing about “PC demand.” The range reflects fundamentally different views on:
- Whether Intel Foundry can win enough external volume to become economically attractive on a multi-year horizon
- How fast leading-edge nodes can scale and how much capital intensity is still required
- Whether government backing and strategic investments reduce downside risk — or introduce new constraints and scrutiny
If you want one sentence that captures the current forecast landscape: Intel has re-entered the market’s “high beta to execution” category.
What analysts and commentators are emphasizing on December 24
Market commentary around today’s move largely converges on the same fulcrum: Intel’s foundry credibility.
Investing.com’s coverage of the Reuters report described the premarket drop and highlighted that, while the Nvidia testing pause read-through is negative, some market observers also pointed to other headlines viewed as supportive to Intel’s foundry ambitions (including Apple-related speculation). [29]
Separately, Reuters’ December 24 profile frames Tan’s dealmaking as meaningful — but also notes that advanced chipmaking demands deep engineering execution, and that Intel’s manufacturing unit has faced challenges producing quality in-house chips. [30]
Key dates and catalysts for Intel stock heading into 2026
Next earnings date
Intel has not listed upcoming events on its IR calendar as of today. [31]
That said, major market calendars estimate Intel’s next earnings report around January 29, 2026 (estimates based on historical patterns and third-party algorithms). [32]
What investors will likely focus on in the next report
Based on Intel’s most recent guidance and the current news cycle, the market’s likely checklist includes:
- Any updates on 18A ramp and product timelines tied to Panther Lake and Clearwater Forest [33]
- Signals on external foundry customer traction, especially anything that clarifies whether paused tests are temporary, routine, or indicative of larger hurdles [34]
- Margin and cash flow durability given the capital demands of advanced manufacturing [35]
- Policy and governance implications of the U.S. government stake and warrant structure [36]
Risks that remain front-and-center
Even with a stronger stock price in 2025, Intel’s story still carries risks that can reprice the equity quickly:
- Foundry execution risk: Intel itself has tied future node investment decisions to customer commitments in past disclosures covered by Reuters — a reminder that the roadmap is not only technical, but also commercial. [37]
- Political and regulatory scrutiny: Reuters recently reported Republican lawmakers criticizing Intel’s evaluation of certain Chinese-linked tools, underscoring how geopolitics can collide with supply chain decisions. [38]
- “Headline volatility” in thin markets: As today showed, a single report about a single customer test can dominate the tape — especially when trading volumes are lighter around holidays. [39]
Bottom line for December 24, 2025
Intel stock is lower today because the market is reacting to a simple (and powerful) implication: a marquee AI chip leader is not yet signaling commitment to Intel’s most important manufacturing node. [40]
At the same time, Intel’s long-term narrative is not just “one test.” The company has positioned 18A as central to major internal product ramps, emphasized U.S.-based leading-edge manufacturing, and reshaped its capital story through government backing and strategic investments. [41]
In other words: INTC is trading at the intersection of manufacturing proof, customer validation, and industrial policy — and today’s Nvidia/18A headline hit the one part of that triangle the market still wants verified in volume. [42]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.bloomberg.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. newsroom.intel.com, 8. newsroom.intel.com, 9. newsroom.intel.com, 10. newsroom.intel.com, 11. newsroom.intel.com, 12. www.intc.com, 13. www.intc.com, 14. www.intc.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.intc.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.intc.com, 23. www.intc.com, 24. www.intc.com, 25. www.intc.com, 26. www.valueinvesting.io, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.intc.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. www.intc.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.intc.com, 36. newsroom.intel.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.intc.com, 42. www.reuters.com
