Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB) Stock Surges After China Approves COBENFY for Schizophrenia: News, Forecasts, and Analyst Outlook on Dec. 24, 2025

December 24, 2025 — Zai Lab Limited (NASDAQ: ZLAB, HKEX: 9688) is back in the spotlight after a major regulatory catalyst in China helped lift sentiment around the biopharma name. The company announced that China’s National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) approved COBENFY (xanomeline and trospium chloride) for schizophrenia in adults—a decision that quickly rippled into trading on both its U.S. ADR and Hong Kong listings. ^[1]

As of Dec. 24, 2025, Zai Lab’s U.S.-listed ADR was trading around $18.54 intraday (open $18.39, high $19.01), as risk-on buyers reacted to the approval headline and the company’s broader “pipeline-to-commercial” story. ^[2]

Below is a full roundup of what’s driving Zai Lab stock today, what analysts are forecasting next, and the key risks investors are weighing.

What happened: China approves COBENFY (xanomeline + trospium) for schizophrenia

On Dec. 23, 2025, Zai Lab said the NMPA approved its New Drug Application for COBENFY for the treatment of schizophrenia in adults. ^[3]

Why the market cared:

Zai Lab described COBENFY as a schizophrenia therapy with a novel mechanism—acting via M1/M4 muscarinic receptor activity rather than traditional dopamine-blocking approaches. ^[4]
The company said the approval was supported by a Phase 1 pharmacokinetics study in China, a Phase 3 China study (ZL-2701-001), and data from global EMERGENT studies. ^[5]
Zai Lab also pointed to the scale of the clinical need, citing ~8 million adults in China living with schizophrenia. ^[6]

Commercial rights: Zai Lab holds an exclusive license (from Karuna Therapeutics, now part of Bristol Myers Squibb) to develop and commercialize COBENFY in Greater China (mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan). ^[7]

Guidelines tailwind: Zai Lab highlighted that COBENFY has already been included in China’s national-level schizophrenia treatment guidelines (2025 edition), which can matter for physician awareness and adoption—even before reimbursement dynamics are fully settled. ^[8]

How ZLAB stock traded on Dec. 24, 2025

U.S. ADR (NASDAQ: ZLAB)

On Dec. 24, Zai Lab’s ADR gapped up at the open and traded actively after the approval news cycle took hold across financial media.

Open: $18.39
Intraday range: $18.20 to $19.01
Intraday price (snapshot): ~$18.54

A separate market note described the move as a gap-up session and emphasized a key technical reality: even after today’s bounce, ZLAB remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages (a reminder that one catalyst doesn’t automatically repair a longer-term downtrend). ^[9]

Hong Kong listing (HKEX: 9688)

In Hong Kong, Zai Lab’s shares also rallied. One price history snapshot shows 9688.HK closing at HK$14.48 on Dec. 24, up 6.24%, with volume around 18.6 million shares. ^[10]

“Today’s coverage” roundup: news and analysis published around Dec. 24, 2025

Here’s what the major “current” items circulating as of Dec. 24 look like:

Company announcement / press coverage: The approval details and mechanism discussion came through the company’s release distributed via Business Wire. ^[11]
Syndicated market news write-ups: Outlets carrying the approval recap emphasized the NMPA decision, clinical support package, and that COBENFY represents a mechanistically different approach than dopamine blockers. ^[12]
Stock move explainers: Trading-focused coverage highlighted the gap-up day and contrasted it with longer-term technical levels (moving averages). ^[13]
Street/consensus framing: Multiple finance platforms updated or resurfaced consensus ratings and 12‑month price targets (more on that below). ^[14]

Bigger context: Zai Lab’s commercial base and why reimbursement still matters

Zai Lab is not a “single-asset” biotech. It has an established commercial footprint in China across oncology, immunology, and infectious disease—important context when the market tries to value a new approval like COBENFY.

NRDL update: key products renewed in China’s reimbursement list

In early December, Zai Lab announced that several medicines/indications were renewed in China’s 2025 National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL), including:

VYVGART for certain generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG) patients
NUZYRA (oral formulation) for CABP and ABSSSI
ZEJULA for ovarian cancer maintenance settings ^[15]

NRDL inclusion/renewal matters because it typically affects access, patient affordability, and volume—often a bigger long-term revenue lever than the headline approval itself.

Zai Lab also noted that VYVGART was approved by the NMPA in 2023 and launched commercially in China, describing it as the first approved FcRn blocker in China. ^[16]

Financial snapshot: what Zai Lab last reported (Q3 2025)

Investors cheering an approval still tend to ask the unromantic follow-up question: “Cool—how’s the base business doing?”

In its third-quarter 2025 update, Zai Lab reported:

Total revenues:$116.1 million (up 14% year-over-year) ^[17]
Operating loss: improved to $48.8 million (company also provided an adjusted operating loss figure) ^[18]
Net loss:$36.0 million in Q3; loss per ADS:$0.33 ^[19]
Cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments, current restricted cash:$817.2 million as of Sept. 30, 2025 ^[20]

Product-level color (selected items the market watches)

Zai Lab’s Q3 disclosure included notable product and launch dynamics:

VYVGART / VYVGART Hytrulo:$27.7 million in Q3 2025 (including a $2.4 million reduction tied to a voluntary price adjustment ahead of NRDL negotiation) ^[21]
ZEJULA:$42.4 million, down year-over-year; the company cited competitive dynamics within PARP inhibitors ^[22]
NUZYRA:$15.4 million, up year-over-year ^[23]
XACDURO:$6.4 million (launched in late 2024) ^[24]

Guidance cut (important!)

The Q3 release also said Zai Lab was revising full-year 2025 total revenue guidance to “at least $460 million.” ^[25]

That guidance change is a big reason some investors remain cautious even on strong regulatory headlines: approvals can be value-creating, but near-term execution and revenue trajectory still anchor many models.

Analyst forecasts and price targets: what the Street expects now

Analyst forecasts vary by platform (coverage set, update cadence, and methodology), but the broad takeaway is consistent: consensus targets sit far above today’s price, implying analysts expect meaningful upside if commercialization and pipeline execution land.

U.S. ADR (ZLAB) — consensus targets

MarketBeat: consensus rating “Moderate Buy”; average 12‑month price target $56.35 (range $36.10 to $75.00) ^[26]
TipRanks: average 12‑month price target shown around $56.43 (range $25.70 to $74.00, based on the analysts TipRanks lists in its lookback window) ^[27]
StockAnalysis: average target $57.22; notes targets were last updated Aug. 11, 2025 ^[28]

Hong Kong (9688.HK) — consensus targets

One set of HK-listed forecasts (as displayed on Investing.com) showed:

Average 12‑month target around HK$29.80, with a high estimate HK$42.61 and low estimate HK$15.10 ^[29]

Important nuance for readers: Price targets are not promises. They reflect assumptions about pricing, uptake, competition, and timelines. Zai Lab’s story is unusually sensitive to China reimbursement negotiations, launch ramp speed, and pipeline readouts—so targets can move fast.

What the approval could mean for Zai Lab’s story in 2026

The market’s “bull case” logic after a catalyst like COBENFY typically looks like this:

A new, differentiated CNS franchise: Schizophrenia is a large, chronic market. If a non-dopamine mechanism gains traction clinically, it can support durable demand. ^[30]
China launch + access flywheel: Over time, China access/reimbursement can expand addressable volume—though pricing concessions can be part of the trade. (Zai Lab already gave investors a glimpse of this dynamic via the Hytrulo price adjustment ahead of NRDL negotiation.) ^[31]
Multiple shots on goal: Zai Lab has also been advancing internal pipeline programs, including a global Phase 1/1b trial start for ZL‑1503 in atopic dermatitis announced earlier this month. ^[32]

That’s the optimistic narrative.

The “bear case” is that launch ramps take time, pricing/access negotiations compress revenue potential, or investors remain focused on losses and guidance resets until revenue growth clearly outpaces expenses.

Risks investors are weighing right now

Even with an approval catalyst, Zai Lab’s stock remains a biotech stock—meaning the risk map is busy:

Commercial execution risk: Approval is step one; physician adoption, patient persistence, and distribution realities are step two (and usually harder).
Pricing and reimbursement risk in China: NRDL dynamics can improve access but pressure net pricing. ^[33]
Competition risk: ZEJULA softness shows how quickly competitive dynamics can change in oncology. ^[34]
Financial risk: Zai Lab is still loss-making, and its 2025 revenue guidance was revised downward. ^[35]
Technical/positioning risk: Even after the pop, at least one market recap noted the shares remain below key moving averages, which can influence how systematic funds and momentum traders behave. ^[36]

What to watch next for Zai Lab (ZLAB) stock

For readers tracking Zai Lab into 2026, the most “price-sensitive” checkpoints are likely to be:

COBENFY launch execution in China: early prescribing trends, patient uptake, and access progress (including any reimbursement pathway updates). ^[37]
Updates on VYVGART commercialization: continued patient growth and how reimbursement negotiations affect net pricing and volume. ^[38]
Pipeline updates: especially globally oriented programs like zocilurtatug pelitecan (DLL3 ADC) and the internally developed ZL‑1503 program. ^[39]
The next earnings cycle: investors will be watching whether revenue momentum and expense discipline can re-accelerate confidence after the guidance revision. ^[40]