Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) finished a holiday-shortened Christmas Eve session higher on Wednesday, December 24, 2025, as Wall Street leaned into late-December optimism and investors reacted to fresh analyst commentary on the membership-warehouse leader.
In regular trading that ended early for the holiday, Costco shares rose about 2% to around $871.86, after trading between $853.99 and $876.00 on the day. Volume was roughly 1.77 million shares—a lighter tape than many normal sessions, but typical for a shortened pre-holiday market.
Quick reality check: the U.S. stock market does not open tomorrow (Dec. 25)
If you’re planning your next move based on “tomorrow’s open,” note the calendar:
- U.S. markets are closed Thursday, Dec. 25, for Christmas Day
- Markets reopen Friday, Dec. 26, for a full regular session
- Dec. 24 was an early close (stocks ended at 1:00 p.m. ET) [1]
That matters because post-close headlines can take longer to price in when the next regular session is delayed—and liquidity can stay thin into the following trading day.
What happened to Costco stock today: price action after the bell
Costco’s move was straightforward: buyers pushed the stock higher through the shortened session and it ended near the upper end of the day’s range.
Key numbers from the Christmas Eve session:
- Last price/close area: ~$871.86
- Day change: +~2.0%
- Open: ~$858.65
- High / Low: ~$876.00 / ~$853.99
- Volume: ~1.77M shares
In a market that’s often more headline-driven than flow-driven into year-end, Costco is the kind of “quality compounder” that can attract incremental bids when broader risk sentiment improves.
Why Costco rose: Northcoast upgrade puts $1,100 target back in the conversation
The most notable Costco-specific catalyst circulating today was an analyst upgrade:
- Northcoast Research upgraded Costco to “Buy” from “Neutral”
- Issued a $1,100 price target, implying meaningful upside from recent levels [2]
Bloomberg’s “Stock Movers” discussion highlighted the upgrade as a clear driver of the day’s move, framing it as a holiday-season lift for the stock. [3]
But Wall Street is not unanimous on COST
One reason the upgrade mattered: it arrived after a choppier stretch of rating changes in December. A summary of recent calls (as compiled in one widely circulated recap) included:
- Wells Fargo maintaining an “Equal-Weight” stance while lowering its target
- Roth Capital downgrading to “Sell” and cutting its target
- Other firms maintaining more constructive views [4]
The takeaway for investors: today’s pop is happening inside a broader valuation debate—not because the market suddenly discovered Costco, but because the stock is sensitive right now to how analysts frame growth durability versus premium pricing.
The broader backdrop: a “Santa rally” tape into the holiday
Costco didn’t trade in a vacuum. U.S. stocks broadly pushed to fresh highs in the shortened session, consistent with year-end seasonal optimism and a risk-on tone. [5]
This kind of environment often benefits mega-cap, institutionally owned names because:
- managers window-dress into perceived “best in class” holdings,
- and investors prefer liquid, trusted operators when trading conditions are thin.
Today’s forecast picture for Costco: what analysts are implying now
After today’s upgrade-driven attention, the natural next question is: what does the Street’s overall forecast look like?
One widely referenced compilation of analyst targets puts Costco’s average target around the low-$1,000s (with a wide spread between high and low targets), and a consensus leaning bullish overall. [6]
What you should do with that information (before Friday’s open):
- Treat price targets as scenario markers, not promises.
- Pay attention to dispersion: wide high/low ranges often signal disagreement about valuation, margin expansion, and the sustainability of growth.
The fundamentals investors keep coming back to: sales growth, comps, and the membership engine
Even when Costco stock trades on upgrades, the long-term story still centers on a few durable drivers:
1) Sales growth and comps
Costco’s most recent quarterly update (Q1 fiscal 2026, released earlier this month) showed:
- Net sales up 8.2% year over year to $65.98B
- Total revenue $67.31B
- Net income $2.001B / $4.50 diluted EPS
- Total company comps +6.4% (digitally-enabled comps +20.5%) [7]
Those are the kinds of numbers that keep Costco in the “best retailer” conversation, even when the stock’s multiple compresses.
2) Membership fees as a profit backbone
Costco’s membership model is repeatedly highlighted as a structural advantage—membership fees are a major earnings pillar, supporting the low-margin retail engine and helping the company keep prices sharp. [8]
This is also why Wall Street often reacts strongly to:
- renewal-rate signals,
- member growth,
- and any changes in membership benefits or fee strategy.
3) Valuation: the argument that won’t go away
A recurring theme in recent analysis is that Costco’s business quality is widely admired—but the stock can still stall if earnings growth doesn’t “catch up” to the multiple investors are willing to pay. [9]
That tension—elite operator vs. premium valuation—is exactly what makes incremental news (like today’s upgrade) capable of moving the shares.
What to watch next: Costco’s upcoming catalysts and dates
If you’re positioning ahead of the next regular session (Friday), the most actionable “known dates” are Costco’s scheduled updates—especially monthly sales.
Key Costco events on the calendar
Costco’s investor relations schedule lists:
- December Sales Results:Jan. 7, 2026 [10]
- Shareholders’ Meeting:Jan. 15, 2026 [11]
- Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call:Mar. 5, 2026 (2:00 p.m. PT) [12]
Why these matter:
- Monthly sales can reset the narrative quickly—especially after the holiday shopping season.
- Earnings is still weeks away, but positioning often starts early in high-quality mega-caps.
What to know before markets reopen Friday morning
With the next regular session coming Friday (not Thursday), here’s what’s most important between now and the next open:
1) Expect thinner liquidity—and potentially sharper moves
The day after Christmas can bring:
- lighter participation from institutions,
- sporadic volatility,
- and exaggerated reactions to news (good or bad).
That doesn’t mean “crash risk,” but it does mean price discovery can be less efficient than usual.
2) The macro calendar is unusually quiet
According to MarketWatch’s major U.S. calendar, no major U.S. economic releases are scheduled for Dec. 26 (and none for Christmas Day). [13]
However, the Federal Reserve’s calendar notes that because of holiday-related closures, some scheduled statistical releases may be pushed to the next business day. [14]
Translation: don’t expect a big, set-piece data catalyst Friday morning—but stay aware of any delayed releases that could still influence rates or risk appetite.
3) The calendar and “holiday” headlines can confuse traders
Even though federal offices are closed on Dec. 26 by executive order, major U.S. exchanges have stated they are following their standard schedules and will be open Dec. 26. [15]
4) Re-check the Costco narrative drivers that actually move the stock
Before Friday’s open, investors typically re-center on a short checklist:
- Any incremental analyst notes following the Northcoast upgrade (do others echo it—or push back?)
- Consumer spending tone (broad retail read-throughs, not just Costco)
- Rates and risk sentiment (Costco can trade like a defensive… until valuation makes it trade like a growth stock)
- Company-specific headlines (store expansion, membership policy updates, product/category trends)
5) Know what today’s move does—and doesn’t—prove
A 2% holiday-session rally is meaningful, but it doesn’t settle the bigger debate:
- Bulls will argue: Costco remains a premium, resilient retailer with consistent comps and a membership engine that supports earnings quality. [16]
- Skeptics will argue: even a great business can be a challenging stock if the valuation stays elevated relative to growth. [17]
Friday’s session is likely to be more about follow-through—whether buyers keep stepping in when normal liquidity returns—than about any single headline.
Bottom line for COST heading into the next session
Costco stock ends Dec. 24 with clear momentum after a Northcoast upgrade and a risk-on holiday tape, closing near day highs in a shortened session. [18]
But the more important setup for investors is what comes next:
- Thursday is a market holiday (no open). [19]
- Friday reopens with likely lighter trading conditions, so price swings can look bigger than the underlying “new information.”
- The next truly fundamental catalysts are Costco’s monthly sales updates (starting with December sales on Jan. 7) and then earnings on March 5. [20]
If you want, I can rewrite this into a tighter Google Discover style (shorter paragraphs, more scannable bullets) or expand it into a longer “deep dive” that compares Costco’s latest quarter to Walmart/Target positioning—without adding charts or images.
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.bloomberg.com, 3. www.bloomberg.com, 4. www.gurufocus.com, 5. www.theguardian.com, 6. www.gurufocus.com, 7. investor.costco.com, 8. www.businessinsider.com, 9. seekingalpha.com, 10. investor.costco.com, 11. investor.costco.com, 12. investor.costco.com, 13. www.marketwatch.com, 14. www.federalreserve.gov, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. investor.costco.com, 17. seekingalpha.com, 18. www.bloomberg.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. investor.costco.com
