Natural gas markets are ending Christmas Eve with a familiar mix of volatility and contradiction: U.S. Henry Hub-linked futures are retreating after a sharp rally, while Europe’s benchmark prices are firming modestly—all as traders juggle shifting temperature models, LNG headlines, and a holiday-altered flow of “must-watch” data releases.
As of today’s session on Wednesday, December 24, 2025, Natural Gas futures were around $4.249 per MMBtu, down about 3.6% on the day, after opening near $4.421 and trading in a $4.183–$4.589 range. [1]
In Europe, the TTF benchmark rose to roughly €28.09/MWh on Dec. 24, up about 1.37%. [2]
The big picture: markets are still pricing a winter that can change quickly, but the short-term narrative into the holiday weekend is being shaped by near-term warmth in parts of the U.S., regional cold risks, and the ever-present global LNG linkage that increasingly ties U.S. pricing to events well beyond North America.
Natural gas price action today: a pullback after a major pop
The most important context for today’s decline is what happened just before it.
On Tuesday, U.S. natural gas futures surged, and today’s selloff looks like a classic “giveback” in thin holiday liquidity, as traders reassessed the balance between near-term warmth and later-winter cold risk. One market commentary described the move as a drop that partly reversed Tuesday’s sharp rally, citing weather shifts that turned somewhat warmer for the U.S. East Coast in early January, even as colder risks persisted elsewhere. [3]
The day’s tape aligns with the broader pricing data: Dec. 24 shows a sharp down day after a strong up day, reinforcing that weather-driven re-pricing—rather than a single supply shock—is still the primary driver heading into year-end. [4]
Europe and the UK: firmer benchmarks even as global LNG stays competitive
While U.S. futures weakened today, European benchmarks moved the other way—at least modestly.
- Dutch TTF: around €28.09/MWh, up ~1.37% on Dec. 24. [5]
- Another price series shows TTF at ~€28.095 on Dec. 24, reinforcing the “slightly higher” tone. [6]
- UK NBP (quarterly benchmark series) also strengthened on Dec. 24, printing around 71.84 and up roughly 1.33% in that series. [7]
This Europe-firmer/U.S.-softer split is one reason global gas watchers keep emphasizing spreads: when Europe’s benchmark holds up while Henry Hub swings around, LNG economics and destination competition can change quickly.
The weather factor: why forecasts still dominate every natural gas headline
If there’s a single “boss level” for natural gas traders, it’s weather—and that remains true on Dec. 24.
Near-term U.S. demand: warmth reduces immediate heating burn, but cold risks remain regional
A widely followed weather-oriented outlook indicated that warmer-than-normal temperatures were expected to dominate much of the U.S. over the next 7 days, with overall light demand (and only limited colder exceptions). [8]
At the same time, regional cold risks are clearly on the map:
- In the U.S. Northeast, officials in Connecticut activated a severe cold weather protocol tied to an incoming arctic system, with forecasts including mid-teen temperatures and low wind chills. [9]
- In Texas, meteorologists flagged a major cooldown early next week, with freeze potential in parts of the state—an important watch item because Texas is central to both U.S. production and LNG export feedgas flows. [10]
Put simply: national demand can look “light” while critical regions turn sharply colder, and that’s enough to keep volatility alive—especially when the market is already perched above $4 and reacting to every model update.
EIA’s winter framing: colder December assumptions and storage implications
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (released Dec. 9) underscored how strongly early December cold can re-shape expectations:
- EIA forecast Henry Hub spot prices averaging around $4.30/MMBtu over the winter heating season (Nov–Mar), about 22% higher than last winter. [11]
- Using NOAA data, EIA assumed December heating degree days (HDDs) about 8% above the 10‑year average, and said it lifted its estimate of gas used for space heating—raising December residential/commercial consumption expectations versus the prior month’s outlook. [12]
- EIA also projected December inventory withdrawals of ~580 Bcf, materially above the typical five-year average for the month, and forecast end-of-winter stocks around 2,000 Bcf. [13]
Even if the next 7 days skew warmer for much of the country, these longer heating-season assumptions help explain why prices can stay elevated—and why rallies can return fast if colder risks reassert themselves in January and February.
Storage: the latest EIA report and why the next one matters even more
Because natural gas is seasonal and storage-dependent, the weekly storage report remains a central “gravity point” for pricing—even when holiday schedules disrupt the normal rhythm.
The latest EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report available today shows:
- Working gas in storage: 3,579 Bcf (Lower 48) as of Friday, Dec. 12, 2025
- Weekly change: -167 Bcf
- Stocks were 61 Bcf below the year-ago level and 32 Bcf above the five-year average (3,547 Bcf)
- EIA noted inventories were within the five-year historical range [14]
Holiday schedule: next release date shifts the calendar
EIA’s storage page lists the next release as December 29, 2025, rather than the typical Thursday cadence. [15]
A market note also flagged that the storage report timing was rescheduled because of the Christmas holiday. [16]
For traders, that matters because weather volatility doesn’t pause for holidays—but some of the most market-moving confirmation data does. That mismatch can magnify price swings.
LNG and global headlines: Petronas–CNOOC deal highlights long-term demand signals
Beyond daily price moves, one of today’s most important structural developments is in LNG contracting.
On Dec. 24, Malaysia’s state energy firm Petronas announced it will supply 1 million metric tons per annum of LNG to CNOOC Gas and Power Singapore Trading & Marketing, deepening an existing relationship between the companies. [17]
Why this matters for “natural gas today,” not just LNG watchers:
- Long-term LNG contracting reduces spot-market exposure, but it also reinforces that Asian buyers are still willing to lock in supply.
- When long-term volumes are spoken for, the remaining “flex” supply can tighten quickly during cold snaps or outages—raising sensitivity for both Europe and the U.S.
- LNG deals are a reminder that U.S. Henry Hub is no longer merely a domestic story; it’s part of a connected global gas system.
Texas reliability focus: inspections and in-state storage levels in the spotlight
Another Dec. 24 development hits the reliability question directly.
Texas regulators said they are stepping up winter gas inspections, continuing post-Uri weatherization oversight into the 2025–26 cold season. The same update noted Texas working gas in storage reached 524.9 Bcf as of Nov. 30, 2025, described as the highest recorded in more than 25 years. [18]
For price-sensitive readers, the key point is not simply “more inspections,” but what it implies:
- Texas remains a critical node for production, intrastate pipelines, power burn, and LNG feedgas.
- Reliability measures and local storage buffers can reduce the odds of extreme dislocations during cold spells—though they do not eliminate them.
Forecasts into 2026: higher prices, higher exports, and production growth expectations
Forecasts published or reiterated today point to a market still wrestling with competing forces:
EIA: production growth moderates prices, but the baseline stays elevated
In its December STEO natural gas section, EIA said rising production is expected to moderate prices next year, while still forecasting:
- U.S. dry gas production averaging ~109 Bcf/d in 2026 (about 1% higher than 2025 in that forecast) [19]
- Henry Hub spot prices averaging almost $4.50/MMBtu in 4Q26 (notably described as down 5% from the prior month’s forecast) [20]
Consumer-facing outlook: natural gas prices expected higher in 2026
An energy-cost outlook published today pointed to natural gas prices rising in 2026, citing a combination of stagnant domestic production and increasing U.S. exports, with an estimate of about a 16% rise in 2026. [21]
The most practical takeaway: even if daily futures swing on short-term weather, the forward-looking consensus still assumes a structurally tighter market than the ultra-cheap gas era, largely because exports (especially LNG) keep expanding the demand base tied—directly or indirectly—to Henry Hub.
What to watch next: the short list that could move prices fast
Heading out of Christmas Eve, these are the biggest catalysts traders and consumers will track:
- Weather model shifts after the holiday
National demand can look soft while regional cold spikes—especially in the Northeast, Midcontinent, and Texas—re-price the curve quickly. [22] - EIA storage report timing and the next print
With the next EIA storage release moved to Dec. 29, the next data point may carry extra weight if weather volatility persists. [23] - LNG contracting and export economics
New long-term supply agreements—like the Petronas–CNOOC deal—highlight demand durability and reinforce the globalization of gas pricing dynamics. [24] - Reliability and infrastructure readiness
Texas’ inspection push and storage levels signal preparation, but cold-weather performance remains a real-time test each winter. [25]
Bottom line for Dec. 24, 2025
Natural gas is closing Christmas Eve with U.S. prices easing to about $4.25/MMBtu, while European benchmarks are slightly higher, and the market narrative remains weather-first, data-scheduled-second, LNG-always. [26]
If you want, I can also tailor this article for a specific geography and audience (U.S. retail consumers vs. European industrial buyers vs. traders) while keeping it Google News/Discover-ready—without changing any of the core facts above.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. tradingeconomics.com, 3. www.barchart.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. tradingeconomics.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. natgasweather.com, 9. www.ctinsider.com, 10. www.chron.com, 11. www.eia.gov, 12. www.eia.gov, 13. www.eia.gov, 14. ir.eia.gov, 15. ir.eia.gov, 16. www.barchart.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.mrt.com, 19. www.eia.gov, 20. www.eia.gov, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.ctinsider.com, 23. ir.eia.gov, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.mrt.com, 26. www.investing.com
