Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE: SCCO) wrapped up the holiday-shortened Christmas Eve session on December 24, 2025 with a muted move in the stock — but the bigger story for investors is happening in the underlying commodity.
Copper prices pushed into new all-time highs as the U.S. dollar weakened and macro data surprised to the upside, reinforcing the bull case for major copper producers heading into year-end. At the same time, valuation concerns and a notable analyst downgrade are resurfacing as SCCO trades near the top of its recent range.
Below is what happened in SCCO after the bell on Dec. 24, 2025, plus the key news, forecasts, and risk factors to keep in mind before the next U.S. market open (Friday, Dec. 26, 2025).
SCCO after the bell: where the stock finished and how it traded late
Because Christmas Eve is an early-close session in the U.S., the “closing bell” came sooner than usual. Both the NYSE and Nasdaq list Dec. 24, 2025 as an early close at 1:00 p.m. ET, with U.S. markets closed on Dec. 25 for Christmas. [1]
Southern Copper (SCCO) finished the regular session at $148.13, up about 0.07% from the prior close. [2]
From a trading perspective, it was a classic holiday tape:
- Open: $149.51
- Day range: $146.72 to $149.51
- Volume: ~345,813 shares (light activity for a mega-cap materials name) [3]
In after-hours, prices were choppy but not dramatic — the kind of low-liquidity drift that can look more meaningful than it is. One after-hours snapshot showed SCCO around $149.02 later in the evening (up roughly 0.6% from the $148.13 regular-session close), with after-hours prints in a tight band around the high-$148s to low-$149s. [4]
Why this matters: with many desks lightly staffed and participation thin, extended-hours moves can reflect order flow more than new information. That’s especially true in commodity-linked equities where the real driver is often what copper does when global markets fully reopen.
The real catalyst: copper just tagged fresh record highs
If SCCO looked “quiet,” copper did not.
A Reuters-reported market update noted copper’s run extended to a sixth straight session, reaching record territory near $12,300/ton as upbeat U.S. growth data lifted demand expectations and a weaker dollar supported commodities broadly. In that report, three-month LME copper traded around $12,195/ton and hit a record near $12,282/ton. [5]
The same update highlighted several points investors in SCCO should care about:
- Copper is up about 9% in December and on track for a roughly 39% gain in 2025, reflecting persistent supply constraints. [6]
- China’s import appetite indicators strengthened, with the Yangshan premium cited as rising (a commonly watched gauge for physical copper demand into China). [7]
- Large amounts of copper have flowed into the U.S. in recent months amid tariff uncertainty and dislocated global supply chains. [8]
For Southern Copper shareholders, this is the heart of the setup: SCCO is a high-beta expression of copper, and copper’s pricing is being driven not only by electrification/AI narratives, but also by inventory location, trade policy risk, and supply tightness — forces that can extend trends longer than many expect.
Why Southern Copper is tightly linked to the “Doctor Copper” trade
Southern Copper is not a diversified miner in the BHP sense; it is, effectively, a copper-and-byproducts machine.
Nasdaq’s company overview describes SCCO as an integrated producer of copper and other minerals operating mining, smelting, and refining facilities in Peru and Mexico. [9]
That footprint gives SCCO leverage to:
- Copper prices (obviously),
- Treatment and refining charges (TC/RC dynamics),
- Local operating conditions in Peru and Mexico (regulatory, labor, water, permitting),
- FX and energy inputs, and
- Byproduct credits (molybdenum, silver, zinc, etc.), which can materially affect realized margins.
So when copper is printing new highs and the dollar is weak, SCCO tends to behave like a quality, cash-generative proxy for the commodity. But when the market worries the copper move is “too far, too fast,” SCCO can quickly become a valuation target.
Today’s SCCO forecasts and analyst moves: why Wall Street is split
Even on a day when copper headlines were bullish, analyst positioning around SCCO remained mixed — and that matters because SCCO is now priced like a “great story” is already in the stock.
1) A notable downgrade: Itau BBA moves to Underperform
A widely circulated sell-side update reported that Itau BBA downgraded Southern Copper to “Underperform” (from Market Perform) with a $126 price target, effective Dec. 23, 2025 and reported out into the market on Dec. 24. [10]
What it implies: with SCCO near $148, a $126 target represents meaningful downside if copper momentum cools or if valuation becomes the dominant narrative.
2) Recent price-target framing: UBS, Goldman, and JPMorgan in the mix
MarketBeat’s analyst roundup this week referenced multiple views, including:
- UBS reiterating a neutral stance and lifting a target to $143 (from $135),
- Goldman Sachs maintaining a more cautious posture with a $115 target (after raising it from a prior level),
- Additional bank commentary suggesting upside scenarios exist — but not necessarily from today’s price without help from copper. [11]
3) The consensus problem: targets below the current stock price
A core tension for SCCO bulls right now is that the stock has already run hard enough that many aggregated targets sit below spot price — signaling that analysts, as a group, think a lot of good news is priced in.
One consensus snapshot put Southern Copper’s average price target around $123.85, with a wide dispersion (high-end targets well above that, low-end targets far below). [12]
How to interpret it: when a commodity equity trades above consensus targets, future upside often depends on one of three things:
- copper price forecasts rising further,
- the company delivering upside operational surprises, or
- the market deciding it will pay a premium multiple for “strategic copper exposure” anyway.
Today’s valuation reality check: AAII calls SCCO “Ultra Expensive”
One of the most direct “today” reads on SCCO valuation came from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), which published an analysis dated December 24, 2025 arguing SCCO screens as overvalued based on its composite value metrics.
AAII’s piece highlighted:
- A Value Score of 14, translating to a Value Grade of F (“Ultra Expensive” in their framework),
- A P/E around 31.7 and price-to-sales near 9.88 (as of Dec. 24, 2025 in their data), among other rich valuation indicators. [13]
This doesn’t mean the stock must fall — in commodities, expensive stocks can stay expensive if the underlying commodity stays tight — but it does raise the bar for what counts as “good enough” news going forward.
Macro backdrop from today: record U.S. equities, thin liquidity, and rate-cut expectations
SCCO didn’t trade in a vacuum on Christmas Eve.
A Reuters market wrap reported U.S. equities ended the shortened session at record highs, extending a multi-day rally, in trading marked by notably light volume. [14]
Separately, the day’s U.S. macro included a key labor-market update:
- Initial jobless claims fell to 214,000 (week ended Dec. 20), while continuing claims rose — a combination that suggests low layoffs but softer hiring momentum. [15]
Why SCCO investors should care: copper is extremely sensitive to the intersection of:
- growth expectations (demand),
- the dollar (pricing power in USD terms),
- and rates/financial conditions (positioning and risk appetite).
In other words, copper can rally both on “growth is fine” and on “rates are coming down” — but it can also correct sharply if the market senses the macro narrative is turning.
Copper forecasts that matter for SCCO heading into 2026
SCCO is ultimately a “copper forward curve” story. The key question is whether the market believes record prices are a spike — or a new plateau.
A Reuters report last month on UBS’s copper outlook captured how aggressive some forecasts have become:
- UBS projected copper reaching $11,500/ton by March 2026, $12,000 by June, $12,500 by September, and $13,000 by December 2026, alongside rising estimates for copper market deficits into 2026. [16]
This kind of forecast matters because if the market begins to treat $12,000+ copper as a durable level (rather than a headline), SCCO’s earnings power and cash return potential can be reframed upward — even if the stock looks expensive on trailing numbers.
What to know before the next market open (Friday, Dec. 26, 2025)
Because U.S. markets are closed on Dec. 25 and reopen Dec. 26, the “tomorrow” setup is really a two-day information gap — and those can sometimes amplify moves when liquidity returns. [17]
Here are the key things to have on your radar before the next opening bell:
1) Watch copper first, SCCO second
If copper holds near record highs when liquidity returns, SCCO typically benefits. If copper mean-reverts (even modestly), SCCO can drop faster than the commodity because the equity carries:
- valuation premium risk (multiple compression),
- and “crowded trade” risk after a strong year.
The clean checklist:
- LME copper direction and volatility
- COMEX copper reaction (especially if U.S. premiums widen)
- the U.S. dollar’s next move (copper often rises as USD falls)
2) Expect “thin-to-thick” volatility
Holiday sessions are notorious for compressing price action, then releasing it when normal participation comes back.
SCCO traded on light volume on Dec. 24, and after-hours trading showed modest price drift. [18]
That combination can create a gap-risk setup into Dec. 26.
3) Calendar check: no major U.S. economic releases scheduled for Dec. 26
One reason commodity and equity moves can feel “freer” after Christmas is simply that the U.S. macro calendar is often quiet.
MarketWatch’s U.S. economic calendar listing showed none scheduled for Thursday, Dec. 25 (holiday) and none scheduled for Friday, Dec. 26. [19]
Implication: absent fresh data, price action may be driven more by positioning, year-end flows, and commodity momentum than by new macro prints.
4) Know the levels the market is watching (psychology matters)
Even investors who don’t “do technicals” tend to respond to round-number behavior:
- $150 has become a psychological level for SCCO given the day’s high print near that area. [20]
A clean break above can trigger momentum buying; repeated failures can invite profit-taking.
5) The push-pull: “strategic copper” narrative vs. “priced-in” valuation
Going into Dec. 26, SCCO sits at the crossroads of two powerful narratives:
Bull case: copper is strategically scarce (AI, electrification, grids, supply disruptions), and producers with scale and integration deserve premium pricing. Recent multi-bank forecasts point to sustained deficits and high prices into 2026. [21]
Bear case: the stock is already pricing in a lot of that — and even a small copper pullback can hit expensive miners hard. The AAII valuation read and at least one high-profile downgrade reflect that concern. [22]
Bottom line for SCCO investors heading into Dec. 26
Southern Copper stock closed near-flat after the early bell on Dec. 24, 2025, while copper prices pushed into fresh record territory — a combination that sets up a potentially more decisive move when normal liquidity returns on Friday, Dec. 26. [23]
If copper stays strong, SCCO can still work higher — but the market is increasingly sensitive to valuation and expectations, with analyst targets and valuation screens flashing caution even amid bullish commodity headlines. [24]
The most practical pre-open mindset: treat SCCO as a copper-led trade first over the next session, and a company-specific story second — because right now, copper is what’s setting the tone.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
References
1. www.nasdaqtrader.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. public.com, 5. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 6. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 7. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 8. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.gurufocus.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.aaii.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.nasdaqtrader.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.aaii.com, 23. finance.yahoo.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com
