ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) ended the holiday-shortened Christmas Eve session lower, even as major U.S. indexes notched fresh records in thin trading. With the U.S. stock market closed on Christmas Day (Thursday, Dec. 25, 2025), investors now shift their focus to commodity moves, late-breaking headlines, and positioning ahead of the next regular session on Friday, Dec. 26. [1]
Below is what moved COP after the bell on Dec. 24, 2025, what the day’s news and analysis are signaling, and the key watchlist heading into the next market open.
COP stock today: the close, the after-hours move, and why “the bell” mattered on Dec. 24
Dec. 24, 2025 was not a normal trading day. NYSE markets closed early at 1:00 p.m. ET for Christmas Eve, which often compresses liquidity and amplifies “headline-driven” price action. [2]
ConocoPhillips price action (Dec. 24, 2025)
- Close (early close):$91.80, down 1.00% on the day [3]
- Day range:$91.69 – $93.16 [4]
- Volume: about 3.08 million shares (light versus typical non-holiday sessions) [5]
After-hours snapshot
In the first stretch of after-hours trading, COP ticked up modestly, reflecting the kind of low-volume “marking” traders often see after an early close:
- After-hours (around 4:50 p.m. ET):~$91.95, +0.16% from the close [6]
Because the day was shortened and liquidity was thin, after-hours prints should be treated cautiously—they can reflect small orders rather than a broad change in conviction.
The broader market backdrop: records for stocks, but Energy lagged
U.S. stocks drifted higher into the holiday, with the S&P 500 and Dow finishing at record highs in a low-volume session. [7]
At the same time, Energy was one of the weaker areas, with Barron’s noting Energy as a laggard on the day. [8] That sector dynamic matters for COP because—on quiet macro days—large energy producers often trade as a “group,” reacting more to oil price direction and sector flows than to company-specific headlines.
Oil prices climbed again today—so why didn’t COP rise with crude?
One of the most important crosscurrents on Dec. 24: oil continued its multi-session rebound. Reuters reported that crude rose for a sixth straight session, with:
- Brent: around $62.55
- WTI: around $58.58 [9]
Reuters also highlighted that both benchmarks were rebounding from near multi-year lows and that the move has been influenced by thin trading alongside geopolitical and supply-risk headlines. [10]
So why did COP still finish down?
A few realistic explanations (and these show up repeatedly in how integrated and independent producers trade):
- Equities don’t always “track tick-for-tick” with crude. Energy stocks can lag oil when investors believe a rebound is fragile, when the market is still pricing in a supply surplus, or when the move is attributed to holiday-thin positioning rather than durable demand. [11]
- Holiday liquidity distorts signals. With lighter volume across markets, sector ETFs and program flows can dominate single-stock outcomes. [12]
- Energy valuation and capital-return narratives are doing more work than spot oil. A separate Barron’s analysis published today noted that—unusually—energy stocks have held up better than oil prices in 2025, supported by cost discipline, buybacks/dividends, and policy/regulatory expectations rather than pure spot-price correlation. [13]
The COP-specific headline in circulation today: CEO’s Form 4 stock sale disclosure
One of the most-discussed COP-specific items circulating in market feeds today was an insider transaction disclosure.
A Form 4 filed Dec. 23, 2025 on the SEC’s EDGAR system shows that ConocoPhillips’ Chairman and CEO Ryan Lance reported two transactions dated Dec. 19, 2025:
- Option exercise:819,900 shares at $33.125
- Sale:500,708 shares at $92.50 [14]
The same filing shows his post-transaction holdings, including 325,972 shares held directly and additional shares held indirectly (including via a trust and a savings plan). [15]
Financial news services flagged the disclosure today (often via “insider sale” headlines), which can weigh on sentiment even when the transaction is part of routine option exercise/sale behavior. [16]
How investors typically interpret this (without overreading it):
- Insider sales can be neutral (taxes, diversification, scheduled sales), but they often get attention during quiet market tapes—especially holiday weeks when there are fewer competing headlines.
- The key is context: whether selling is isolated or part of a broader pattern, and whether it coincides with major corporate developments (earnings, M&A, guidance changes).
The next major company catalyst is already scheduled: Q4 results and 2026 guidance on Feb. 5
For investors thinking beyond the holiday tape, the next high-impact event is ConocoPhillips’ next earnings release.
ConocoPhillips said it will release fourth-quarter 2025 results before the market opens on Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026, followed by a webcast/conference call at 12:00 p.m. ET, where the company expects to discuss results and 2026 guidance items. [17]
Between now and then, the stock’s narrative is likely to be influenced by:
- the direction of oil and natural gas prices,
- investor confidence in capital returns,
- and progress integrating prior acquisitions (including Marathon Oil).
Refresher on COP’s current “fundamentals narrative”: production, costs, dividend, and Marathon integration
While today didn’t bring a new ConocoPhillips press release, investors are still anchoring to guidance and capital-return messaging laid out in recent quarters.
Reuters’ coverage of ConocoPhillips’ recent earnings cycle highlights themes that continue to shape the COP story:
- ConocoPhillips raised its quarterly dividend to $0.84 per share and lifted production guidance in 2025 on higher output and cost efforts. [18]
- The company has positioned major projects (including Alaska’s Willow development and LNG-linked initiatives) as longer-run growth drivers. [19]
- ConocoPhillips completed its $22.5 billion Marathon Oil acquisition previously, a deal that expanded its footprint and has been central to its scale and synergy narrative. [20]
The company’s own dividend history confirms the $0.84 quarterly payment was declared in November and paid in early December. [21]
Wall Street forecasts: where analysts see COP over the next 12 months
Even on quiet sessions, “where the Street is” matters because COP is widely held in energy funds and often trades around consensus expectations for oil, cash flow, and shareholder returns.
As of the latest tracker pages:
- MarketWatch shows an average target price around $113.79 across a broad analyst set. [22]
- Investing.com shows an average target around $112.37, with a published high/low range around $131 / $98 (ranges vary by provider and update timing). [23]
With COP closing at $91.80 today, those consensus targets imply meaningful upside if commodity prices and execution support the outlook. But it’s important to treat targets as scenario markers, not guarantees—especially in a sector where earnings power can swing with crude and gas.
What to watch before the next market open (Friday, Dec. 26) — a practical checklist
Because U.S. markets are closed Thursday, Dec. 25, there is no “tomorrow morning open” for COP. The next true catalyst window is Friday’s reopen, when traders digest two calendar days of headlines at once. [24]
Here’s the watchlist that matters most:
1) Oil’s holiday tape: does the rally hold?
Oil’s rebound has been supported by macro data and geopolitical supply risk narratives. [25] If crude keeps firming into Friday, COP and peers may catch a bid—especially if energy equities continue to lag crude and need to “catch up.”
2) Geopolitical and supply-risk headlines (the biggest swing factor)
Reuters pointed to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions as part of the oil-supportive backdrop. [26]
In a low-liquidity week, even incremental updates can move both crude and energy equities quickly.
3) Any follow-on reaction to the CEO Form 4 disclosure
The Form 4 details are now public, and additional commentary can circulate as desks return after the holiday. [27]
Watch whether the story fades (common) or becomes a recurring talking point (less common unless paired with other developments).
4) Regulatory risk in Alaska: not “tomorrow morning,” but worth tracking
A longer-run issue that can re-enter headlines is litigation around Alaska exploration approvals near ConocoPhillips activity, which AP has covered recently. [28]
This is not usually a day-to-day trading driver for COP, but in a headline-light period it can affect sentiment.
5) The “thin tape” effect: be careful interpreting gaps and quick moves
AP described holiday trading conditions as notably light. [29]
That matters because Friday’s open can bring:
- wider spreads,
- sharper opening gaps,
- and more exaggerated moves that later mean-revert once liquidity normalizes.
Bottom line for ConocoPhillips stock heading into the post-holiday reopen
ConocoPhillips ended Dec. 24 lower at $91.80, with a small after-hours uptick near $91.95 in thin conditions. [30]
The day’s setup was shaped less by company news and more by the intersection of:
- an early close / holiday liquidity vacuum, [31]
- an ongoing oil rebound, [32]
- and attention drawn to a newly filed CEO insider transaction disclosure. [33]
With Christmas Day closing U.S. markets, the next real test is Friday, Dec. 26—when oil’s tone, geopolitical headlines, and renewed institutional participation will determine whether COP’s dip was just holiday noise or the start of a more durable move. [34]
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. www.conocophillips.com, 5. www.conocophillips.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. apnews.com, 8. www.barrons.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. apnews.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.marketscreener.com, 17. www.conocophillips.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.conocophillips.com, 22. www.marketwatch.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.nyse.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. apnews.com, 29. apnews.com, 30. finance.yahoo.com, 31. www.nyse.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.sec.gov, 34. www.nyse.com
