Northern Star Resources Ltd Stock (ASX:NST): Latest News, Share Price Drivers, and Analyst Forecasts (25 December 2025 Update)

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) is heading into the year-end break with a powerful tailwind behind it: gold has been on a record-setting run, and Australian gold equities have been partying like it’s 1849. But the company’s story is not just “gold up, miners up.” Northern Star is simultaneously pushing a major capital program at Kalgoorlie (KCGM), integrating the Hemi growth pipeline (via De Grey), and keeping the drill bit busy across its portfolio—while investors watch costs, capex discipline, and the institutional register for clues about what comes next. ^[1]

Because 25 December is a market holiday, there’s no fresh on-exchange trading today. The most recent market pricing and most recent company disclosures are therefore anchored to the last trading sessions and the latest ASX releases available up to 24 December 2025. ^[2]

Northern Star share price today: where NST last traded before the holiday break

Northern Star last closed at A$27.01 (24 December 2025), after gaining 1.16% on the day, with the stock having traded intraday around A$26.74–A$27.22. ^[3]

Several reference datasets also put NST’s 52-week range roughly around A$15.30 to A$27.99, underscoring just how dramatic the 2025 re-rating has been for the gold sector. ^[4]

Market context matters here: on Christmas Eve coverage, the ABC noted the ASX went into a four-day trading shutdown, with trading resuming the following Monday (29 December 2025)—meaning price discovery is effectively “paused” until then. ^[5]

Why Northern Star stock is in focus: gold’s “record-high gravity well”

Northern Star is one of the large, liquid ways investors express a view on gold—particularly in Australia—so when bullion does something dramatic, NST tends to show up in the conversation fast.

On 24 December market coverage, ABC Business highlighted spot gold around ~US$4,495/oz and described Australia’s gold equities pushing to record levels, with the All Ords Gold sub-index hitting new highs and large gold miners (including Northern Star) rising on the day. ^[6]

Zoom out further and you get the macro backbone: Reuters reported Australia revised expected resources earnings higher in part due to record gold prices, and flagged government expectations for the value of Australia’s gold exports to rise materially across the coming financial years. That kind of “gold is not just high, it’s structurally important again” narrative tends to keep institutional attention on major producers like Northern Star. ^[7]

The key point for NST investors: the gold price is the amplifier, but the company’s execution determines whether the market keeps paying a premium—or starts asking rude questions about costs and capex.

Latest Northern Star news: VanEck ceases to be a substantial holder (ASX filing)

The most recent company-specific ASX release (as of 25 December 2025) is a Form 605 notice relating to VanEck.

Northern Star’s ASX filing states Van Eck Associates Corporation ceased to be a substantial holder on 19/12/2025, with the notice released on 24/12/2025. ^[8]

What does that mean in plain English?

It doesn’t automatically mean “bearish”—large ETF and index-related managers can move above/below substantial-holder thresholds due to flows, rebalances, and in-kind creations/redemptions. (And this particular notice includes multiple “in-kind” transaction references.) ^[9]
It can be relevant because it signals how the institutional register is shifting at the margins—especially in a sector where momentum and ETF flows have been influential.

The market takeaway: this is a structure-of-ownership update more than an operating update—but ownership structure can affect near-term liquidity and sentiment.

Credit and balance sheet signal: Fitch affirmed Northern Star at BBB- with a Stable outlook

One of the most “grown-up” signals in Northern Star’s late-2025 news flow is credit-related.

A Reuters-distributed Fitch rating action (published via TradingView) said Fitch affirmed Northern Star’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘BBB-’ with a Stable outlook, also affirming its USD senior unsecured notes at ‘BBB-’. ^[10]

Fitch’s commentary matters for equity investors because it highlights the market’s central tension in Northern Star’s story:

The company is spending heavily to upgrade and expand (notably KCGM),
while trying to keep leverage controlled,
in a gold market that can be generous… until it suddenly isn’t.

Among the notable points reported in the Fitch write-up:

Northern Star’s ore reserves cited at 22.3 million ounces, supporting a mine life of ~14 years at the FY25 production rate (per Fitch). ^[11]
KCGM expansion is framed as a cost-position improver over time, including the ability to process stockpiled ore with “no associated mining costs” once expanded capacity comes online (again, per Fitch’s summary). ^[12]
Fitch referenced high capex expectations, including an indicated FY26 capex range of A$845m–A$920m tied to the KCGM mill expansion and related readiness infrastructure. ^[13]

This is a useful sanity check for equity holders: even in a record-gold environment, the market will keep score on capital intensity and whether upgrades actually translate into lower unit costs and higher free cash flow.

Exploration and growth pipeline: what Northern Star said in its FY26 exploration update

Northern Star’s most substantial operational update in December was its Exploration Update dated 5 December 2025.

Key highlights Northern Star reported include:

FY26 exploration spend forecast of A$225 million (unchanged), with emphasis on near-mine growth and portfolio-wide resource conversion. ^[14]
At KCGM, drilling that extends the Fimiston South mineralisation footprint up to ~800 metres below the existing Mineral Resource, plus identification of the “Golden Goose” prospect at Mt Charlotte. ^[15]
At Kalgoorlie Operations, mention of opportunity at the Ballarat-Last Chance Project and ongoing drilling around the Hercules discovery. ^[16]
At Pogo (Alaska), extensional drilling and multiple target areas highlighted, reflecting the scale potential of the system. ^[17]
At Hemi, discussion of growth opportunities adjacent to existing resources and early regional results (including Mt Berghaus). ^[18]
The company also noted that Hemi Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves are intended for inclusion in a group annual statement to be released May 2026. ^[19]

If you’re trying to translate “exploration update” into “stock relevance,” here’s the investor logic chain:

Near-mine success can extend mine life and improve optionality.
Optionality matters more when the company is also undertaking big fixed capital projects (you want flexibility in feed sources and sequencing).
In high-gold-price regimes, the market tends to reward producers who can show repeatable, low-cost resource addition, not just one-off luck.

Costs and guidance: the two numbers investors keep interrogating

In late-2025 gold equities, the debate isn’t whether gold is high—it’s whether miners can stop costs from eating the upside.

In the Fitch/Reuters coverage, Northern Star’s FY26 outlook was framed around:

FY26 targeted production of ~1.7–1.85 million ounces, and
FY26 AISC guidance cited as US$1,495–US$1,755/oz (also shown as A$2,300–A$2,700/oz in the same report), with inflation and mine development cited as drivers. ^[20]

That AISC range is one of the market’s key “stress points” because it determines how much of record gold pricing becomes free cash flow versus being reinvested just to stand still.

Northern Star stock forecast: what analysts are projecting into 2026

Forecasts vary by platform and methodology, but the broad consensus picture for Northern Star (as of late December 2025 data) looks like this:

Investing.com consensus estimates referenced ~16 analysts, with an average 12‑month price target around ~A$28.92, and a published high/low spread that extends into the mid‑A$30s on the upside. It also labels the consensus rating as “Buy” (with a split of buys/holds/sells shown on the page). ^[21]
TipRanks reported an average target around A$28.88, also with a wide high/low range. ^[22]
TradingView’s analyst forecast widget listed an average target around A$30.21 (with the usual caveat that it aggregates multiple analysts and can differ from other datasets). ^[23]
Simply Wall St emphasized forward-looking growth expectations (earnings and revenue growth rates) rather than a single headline target price, based on its analyst-data summary. ^[24]

How to read those targets without fooling yourself

Price targets are not laws of nature; they’re conditional statements disguised as numbers. For Northern Star, most targets are implicitly assuming some mix of:

gold prices remaining elevated (or at least not collapsing),
delivery on KCGM expansion milestones,
cost control as new capacity and sequencing benefits come through, and
continued progress on Hemi and exploration conversion.

Even Fitch’s own rating-case assumptions (which are not equity price targets, but do influence credit views) illustrate how different the future can look depending on commodity decks—Fitch’s scenario table in the Reuters-distributed write-up included a gold price path of US$2,700/oz in 2026, then lower levels thereafter in subsequent years. ^[25]

The practical investor implication: when targets are close to (or only modestly above) the latest traded price, the market may be saying “we like the company, but we want proof on execution.”

What to watch next: key dates and upcoming catalysts

Northern Star’s own investor calendar lists the next major scheduled items as:

December 2025 Quarterly Results: Thursday, 22 January 2026
FY26 Half Year Results: Thursday, 12 February 2026 ^[26]

These two events are likely to be the next big “volatility magnets,” because they’ll update the market on:

cost performance versus guidance,
progress on capex programs,
operating momentum across Kalgoorlie, Yandal, and Pogo, and
any clarity on the sequencing and permitting pathway for Hemi.

Risks that can move Northern Star stock quickly

Northern Star’s bull case is straightforward: scale, Tier‑1 jurisdictions, long mine life, expansion leverage, and a gold environment that currently looks like it’s been fed after midnight. ^[27]

The bear case is also straightforward (and often shows up suddenly):

Gold price volatility: high prices can reverse faster than narratives can update. ^[28]
Cost inflation and execution risk: AISC and sustaining capital have become the sector’s “silent tax.” ^[29]
Large-project delivery: the market rewards a clean ramp; it punishes delays and cost blowouts. ^[30]
Register/flow effects: institutional ownership changes (like the VanEck substantial-holder shift) can influence short-term trading dynamics even if fundamentals are unchanged. ^[31]

Bottom line on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock (ASX:NST) as of 25 December 2025

Northern Star goes into the end‑of‑year break with:

a share price near recent highs (A$27.01 at the last close), ^[32]
gold and gold equities in record-high territory, ^[33]
fresh attention on its ownership register after a VanEck substantial-holder threshold change, ^[34]
a reaffirmed investment-grade credit profile from Fitch that explicitly frames the “high capex now for better costs later” story, ^[35]
and ongoing exploration momentum across Kalgoorlie/KCGM, Yandal, Pogo, and Hemi, backed by a stated FY26 exploration spend plan of A$225m. ^[36]

For traders, the near-term question is whether gold’s momentum stays hot into the reopening sessions after the holiday. For longer-horizon investors, the bigger question is whether Northern Star can convert this extraordinary gold backdrop into sustained free cash flow while executing its expansion roadmap—without letting costs and capex creep steal the plot.

References

BHP Group Ltd Stock Outlook (Dec. 25, 2025): Copper’s Record Run, China Iron Ore Tensions, and What Analysts Forecast for 2026

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Stock (ASX:CBA): Latest News, Share Price, Dividend Outlook and Analyst Forecasts as of 25 December 2025

Boeing Taps Flightradar24’s 55,000-Receiver Network to Boost Fleet Performance: What the Deal Means on December 25, 2025