Woodside Energy Group Ltd stock heads into Christmas with investors digesting a rare combination of leadership surprise and big-project reality checks. On 25 December 2025, markets are closed, but the narrative around Woodside (ASX: WDS / NYSE: WDS) is very much “open for business”: a CEO departure to run BP, a deep pipeline of capital-intensive LNG developments, and analysts trying to price the upside of future cash flows against the downside of execution risk and LNG-cycle volatility.
In the last U.S. session before the holiday break, Woodside’s NYSE-listed ADR closed around $15.42 (Dec. 24, 2025), down modestly on the day after a volatile week that included a sharp selloff during the initial CEO headline. [1]
What follows is a comprehensive look at the latest news, forecasts, and analysis available as of 25.12.2025—and what matters most for Woodside Energy stock into 2026.
The headline moving Woodside stock: Meg O’Neill exits to become BP CEO
The dominant story for Woodside Energy Group Ltd this week has been CEO Meg O’Neill’s departure to take the top job at BP, a surprise move that immediately raised the market’s “continuity risk” alarms for Woodside—especially given how many major investment decisions and construction milestones are stacked up across the company’s LNG portfolio.
Reuters reported that O’Neill is set to become BP’s CEO in April 2026, and that Woodside named Liz Westcott as acting CEO as the board begins a formal search for a permanent replacement. The news hit Woodside shares immediately, with Reuters noting an initial drop of nearly 3% on the day the move became public. [2]
Woodside’s own CEO succession announcement (distributed via Business Wire) confirms Liz Westcott as Acting CEO effective 18 December 2025, with the company expecting to announce a permanent appointment in the first quarter of 2026. [3]
Why it matters for the stock: Woodside is not a business where leadership is “just vibes.” It is a company with multiple multi‑billion‑dollar projects in execution or ramp-up, and investors are heavily exposed to capex discipline, contracting strategy, and schedule performance. A CEO transition can change how the market discounts those future cash flows—especially when the next few years include major LNG startup events.
Reuters’ core warning: the next CEO inherits massive LNG bets amid oversupply risk
In an analysis piece that landed just after the CEO news, Reuters framed Woodside’s moment bluntly: the incoming chief will need to steer costly LNG projects through a market that may be heading toward a supply glut and softer pricing power later in the decade.
Reuters highlighted Woodside’s $17.5 billion Louisiana LNG development as the central test—requiring tight construction management, additional equity partners to reduce exposure, and long-term buyers (offtake contracts) that can defend economics if the LNG market loosens. [4]
This is the key tension in Woodside Energy stock right now:
- Bull case: “Build it, and the world will buy it” (especially with energy security still high on the agenda in parts of Europe and Asia).
- Bear case: “Build it, and your returns get squeezed” (if too much LNG hits the market at once, or if construction costs and timelines slip).
Woodside’s valuation—and the shape of its dividend story—sits in the middle of that fight.
The latest operational scorecard: Woodside’s Q3 2025 update
When analysts try to separate headline noise from fundamentals, they go back to operational numbers and project milestones. Woodside’s Third Quarter 2025 Report (period ended 30 September 2025) gave investors several notable datapoints:
- Quarterly production: 50.8 MMboe (552 Mboe/d), up 1% from Q2 2025
- Full-year 2025 production guidance: revised upward to 192–197 MMboe
- Average realised price:$60/boe (benefiting from diversified pricing)
- Pluto LNG reliability: 100% for the quarter
- Project progress: Scarborough 91% complete; Beaumont New Ammonia 97% complete; Trion 43% complete; Louisiana LNG 19% complete (Train 1 25%) [5]
The report also noted Woodside received final Australian Government environmental approval for the North West Shelf Project Extension, enabling continued operations beyond 2030 subject to conditions. [6]
Investor takeaway: even before the CEO surprise, Woodside was telling the market it is executing well operationally—while simultaneously asking investors to underwrite a heavy construction cycle.
The megaproject timeline that defines Woodside Energy stock
Scarborough and Pluto Train 2: “close enough to smell first LNG”
Woodside’s Scarborough Energy Project (including Pluto Train 2) remains the flagship near-term Australian growth engine. Woodside has stated Scarborough is over 91% complete (excluding Pluto Train 1 modifications) and is targeting first LNG cargoes in the second half of 2026. [7]
For Woodside stock, Scarborough matters because it’s positioned as a major volume and cash flow contributor before Louisiana LNG reaches first production.
Louisiana LNG: the big swing (and the big anxiety)
Woodside approved a $17.5 billion final investment decision (FID) for Louisiana LNG in April 2025, with production targeted to start in 2029. Reuters described an initial build of three trains (first phase) and flagged the project’s strategic significance in global LNG supply growth. [8]
Woodside’s project material also lays out the financing mechanics that investors keep obsessively re-checking:
- Total forecast capital expenditure for LNG project + pipeline + management reserve: US$17.5 billion (100%)
- Stonepeak to provide $5.7 billion toward expected capex (accelerated contribution)
- Woodside’s share of forecast total capex: ~$11.8 billion (before further sell-downs) [9]
From a stock perspective, Louisiana LNG is where Woodside could either:
- Validate its “global LNG powerhouse” ambition, or
- Get punished if costs, partners, or LNG pricing go the wrong way.
Beaumont New Ammonia and Trion: additional growth legs (and complexity)
Woodside reported Beaumont New Ammonia at 97% complete, with Phase 1 targeting first production from late 2025. Meanwhile, Trion was reported 43% complete, targeting first oil in 2028. [10]
These projects expand the growth narrative—but also add layers of execution complexity at exactly the moment Woodside is changing CEOs.
North West Shelf extension to 2070: cash flow tailwind, political and legal headwind
Few assets loom larger in Woodside’s Australian story than the North West Shelf (NWS). In 2025, Australia granted approvals that collectively clear the project extension to operate until 2070, subject to strict conditions. [11]
Woodside’s own project page summarizes the approvals timeline:
- State Government approval received in December 2024
- Federal environmental approval granted in September 2025 [12]
For Woodside stock, the extension is a classic “two-handed sword”:
- Positive: extends the life of major LNG infrastructure, supporting long-duration cash generation and potential third-party gas processing economics.
- Negative: intensifies scrutiny around emissions, cultural heritage protections, and legal/political risk—precisely the sort of uncertainty that can raise a project’s discount rate in the market.
This is not theoretical. Reuters has reported in detail on the controversy surrounding the extension (including environmental group backlash and conditions attached to approval). [13]
Policy risk is back on the menu: domestic gas reservation proposals
Another theme hovering over Australian gas exporters into year-end is policy. Australian reporting this week described a proposed domestic gas reservation scheme that could require exporters to reserve a portion of production for local supply, with implementation targeted for 2027 (as described in the report). [14]
Even when policies are not yet final, markets often price the direction of travel. For Woodside Energy Group Ltd stock, anything that changes domestic pricing, contract flexibility, or export economics becomes relevant—especially as Australia debates energy affordability and industrial competitiveness during the transition.
Analyst forecasts and price targets for Woodside stock
Forecasts are not facts, but they do shape sentiment—especially when a stock is being valued on multi-year project ramps.
ASX: WDS price target range
TradingView’s analyst summary for ASX: WDS lists:
- 1-year price target:A$26.28
- Range:A$22.95 (min) to A$33.21 (max) [15]
Broker mix and consensus target (Australia-focused)
An Australian broker roundup published by FNArena (discussing Woodside’s longer-term dividend ambitions and project pipeline) reported:
- Consensus target:$25.78 (AUD context)
- Rating mix among brokers it tracks: one Buy and five Hold/equivalent [16]
That same piece captured how brokers frame the tradeoff: attractive long-run cash return potential, but meaningful waiting time and execution risk while major projects are built. [17]
NYSE: WDS (ADR) ratings and downgrades
On the U.S.-listed ADR side, MarketBeat highlighted a downgrade by Wall Street Zen (from hold to sell) and described mixed broader coverage. [18]
MarketWatch’s analyst-estimate snapshot for the ADR lists an average target price of $17.63 (USD). [19]
Valuation-style analysis (DCF and multiples)
Simply Wall St published a valuation-oriented analysis arguing the stock may look undervalued under its DCF framework, while also noting how sensitive that conclusion is to growth, pricing, and risk assumptions. [20]
How to read all of this without hallucinating certainty:
Price targets tend to converge when the market agrees on commodity prices + project schedules. When those inputs wobble—like during a CEO transition in a capex-heavy phase—targets can lag reality or become unusually wide.
Dividend outlook: the “pay me now” vs “pay me later” debate
Woodside continues to market itself as a returns-driven energy major—but its next phase requires large investment first.
At Woodside’s 2025 Capital Markets Day, the company presented an ambition to achieve more than 50% sales growth to 2032 and reach approximately US$9 billion net operating cash flow by 2032, creating “a pathway” to a ~50% increase in dividend per share from 2032 (company presentation language describes this as indicative, not guidance). [21]
Broker commentary captured by FNArena reflects the split:
- Some see Woodside as an execution story with attractive yield characteristics.
- Others emphasize the long runway and the reality that free cash flow can look messy during heavy build phases. [22]
For Woodside stock, dividends are not just a shareholder perk—they are part of the valuation anchor. If markets lose confidence in timing, sustainability, or cash conversion during the capex cycle, the stock can de-rate quickly.
What to watch next for Woodside Energy stock in early 2026
A few concrete catalysts are now front-and-center:
- CEO appointment timeline: Woodside expects to name a permanent CEO in Q1 2026. [23]
- Next major reporting dates: Woodside’s investor calendar lists:
- Fourth Quarter 2025 Report:28 Jan 2026
- 2025 Annual Report:24 Feb 2026 [24]
- Scarborough execution: the market will keep tracking whether first LNG remains firmly targeted for H2 2026. [25]
- Louisiana LNG de-risking: any updates on equity sell-downs, offtake contracts, and cost/schedule confidence will matter disproportionately because the project is so large relative to Woodside’s market story. [26]
- Australia policy and approvals: NWS extension conditions, broader gas reservation proposals, and any regulatory shifts can all change the perceived risk premium. [27]
Bottom line: Woodside stock is priced on execution, not just oil and gas prices
As of 25 December 2025, Woodside Energy Group Ltd stock sits at a crossroads:
- The company has tangible operational momentum (production performance and late-stage construction progress). [28]
- The long-term strategy is explicit: scale LNG and cash flows into the early 2030s and lift shareholder returns over time. [29]
- But the market is now asking a sharper question: who leads this strategy next—and how will they manage LNG-cycle risk while billions are still being spent? [30]
That’s why Woodside’s next few months are likely to be driven less by “generic energy sentiment” and more by CEO clarity, project execution updates, and proof that its LNG growth plan can stay on-budget and bankable in a potentially looser LNG market.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.businesswire.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.woodside.com, 6. www.woodside.com, 7. www.woodside.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.woodside.com, 10. www.woodside.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.woodside.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.couriermail.com.au, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. fnarena.com, 17. fnarena.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. simplywall.st, 21. www.woodside.com, 22. fnarena.com, 23. www.businesswire.com, 24. www.woodside.com, 25. www.woodside.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. minister.dcceew.gov.au, 28. www.woodside.com, 29. www.woodside.com, 30. www.reuters.com
