Macquarie Group Limited (ASX: MQG) heads into the final week of 2025 with investors weighing two big December developments: a regulatory settlement tied to historic short-sale reporting failures, and the completion of a major asset-management divestment that sharpens Macquarie Asset Management’s focus on private markets.
With the Australian Securities Exchange closed on Thursday, 25 December 2025 (Christmas Day)—and also closed on Friday, 26 December 2025 (Boxing Day)—the last meaningful price discovery for Macquarie shares occurred on the early-close session on Wednesday, 24 December 2025. [1]
What follows is a comprehensive, publication-ready roundup of the latest news, the most-cited analyst forecasts, and the key fundamentals shaping the Macquarie stock narrative as of 25 December 2025.
Macquarie share price today: where MQG stock stands on 25 December 2025
Because the ASX cash market is closed for the Christmas holiday, MQG’s “today” reference point is effectively the last close.
Data aggregators tracking the ASX list Macquarie (MQG) at about A$205.03 as of 25 December 2025, with a stated 52‑week range of A$160.00 to A$242.90. [2]
It’s worth noting the market mechanics around the date: the ASX trading calendar confirms the exchange was scheduled to close early on 24 December and be closed on 25–26 December. [3]
The headline risk investors are pricing: ASIC short-sale reporting settlement
What happened
The most material late‑December headline for Macquarie stock was the announcement that its Australian securities arm will seek court approval for a A$35 million civil penalty connected to long-running short-sale reporting failures.
According to Reuters (dated 19 December 2025), Macquarie said Macquarie Securities (Australia) agreed to the penalty following “systemic failures” that led to misreporting millions of short sales over many years. Reuters reported that ASIC alleged misreporting of up to 1.5 billion short sales over roughly 15 years, and that the unit admitted it failed to correctly report at least 73 million short sales between 11 December 2009 and 14 February 2024. [4]
ASIC’s own media release adds that ASIC and the entity will ask the NSW Supreme Court to impose the A$35 million penalty, and that the penalty and associated orders are subject to court approval. [5]
Macquarie’s statement on the proceedings says the issues involved transaction reporting deficiencies which the unit remediated with additional controls, and confirms the parties agreed to submit that A$35 million is an appropriate civil penalty. [6]
Market impact (so far)
Reuters also captured a key piece of market “real-time” interpretation: one analyst quoted in the report argued that, relative to Macquarie’s scale, profitability and capital position, the penalty is not material enough to alter the investment case, noting broader market attention tends to remain on margins, credit quality and macro conditions. [7]
In short: the settlement is a reputational and governance headline, but (at least in the initial reaction described by Reuters) not a thesis-breaker for many investors.
Strategic reset: Macquarie completes A$2.8b sale to Nomura
The deal is now closed
On 1 December 2025, Macquarie announced it had completed the sale of Macquarie Asset Management’s North American and European public investments business to Nomura for approximately A$2.8 billion. [8]
Macquarie said the sold business included equities, fixed income and multi‑asset strategies, with approximately A$254 billion of assets under management (AUM) (as at 31 October 2025). [9]
Why it matters for MQG stock
Macquarie positions the sale as a strategic simplification: it says the transaction enables Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) to focus on building a position as a global leader in private markets, while continuing to operate a full-service asset manager in Australia across public and private markets. It also says that, after adjusting for the transaction, MAM’s AUM is approximately A$720 billion (as at 30 September 2025). [10]
There’s also a commercial “sequel” embedded in the announcement: Macquarie and Nomura formalised a strategic partnership for product distribution and co-development of investment strategies, including Nomura distributing select Macquarie funds to U.S. wealth clients. [11]
Nomura’s own closing announcement provides another lens on scale and pricing: Nomura reported a purchase price of US$1.8 billion, and said the deal brings approximately US$166 billion of retail and institutional client assets (as of 31 October 2025) across equities, fixed income and multi-asset strategies. [12]
How investors typically interpret this
For Macquarie shareholders, this kind of divestment usually gets judged on three questions:
- Does it improve growth quality? (More private markets, where fees and products can be stickier, but valuations can be cyclical.)
- Does it reduce earnings volatility? (Public markets strategies can be scale businesses, but flows can be fickle.)
- What does Macquarie do with the proceeds and freed-up balance sheet capacity? (Buybacks, reinvestment, capital buffers, or new deals.)
The December close of the sale means those questions become less hypothetical and more about execution over the next several reporting periods.
The latest fundamentals: Macquarie’s most recent results and capital actions
The most recent official financial checkpoint for investors remains Macquarie’s half-year results for the period ended 30 September 2025 (released 7 November 2025), alongside the firm’s most recent full-year reporting for FY2025.
Half-year FY2026 (1H26): profit, AUM, and business mix
Macquarie reported 1H26 net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of A$1,655 million, up 3% versus 1H25. [13]
It reported assets under management of A$959.1 billion at 30 September 2025, up 5% versus the prior year and up 2% versus 31 March 2025. [14]
Macquarie also highlighted a strong regulatory capital position, including:
- Group capital surplus:A$7.6 billion
- Bank Level 2 CET1 ratio:12.4% (harmonised 17.3%)
- Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR):173%
- Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR):113% [15]
Operationally, the segment picture was mixed—exactly the kind of mix that makes Macquarie a “diversified financials” name rather than a plain vanilla bank:
- Macquarie Asset Management (MAM): net profit contribution A$1,175m, up 43%, primarily driven by higher performance fees. [16]
- Banking and Financial Services (BFS): net profit contribution A$793m, up 22%, reflecting growth in home loans and deposits, partly offset by margin compression and higher technology expenses. [17]
- Commodities and Global Markets (CGM): net profit contribution A$1,113m, down 15%, with Macquarie pointing to higher operating expenses and transaction-related costs; commodities income was “broadly in line.” [18]
- Macquarie Capital: net profit contribution A$711m, up 92%, reflecting higher M&A and brokerage fees and stronger private credit portfolio income. [19]
Buyback and dividend: shareholder returns in focus
Macquarie also leaned into capital management.
- Buyback extension: The board approved extending the up to A$2 billion on-market buyback for a further 12 months. [20]
- Buyback progress: As at 6 November 2025, Macquarie said A$1,013 million of shares had been acquired at an average price of A$189.80 per share. [21]
- Interim dividend: Macquarie declared a 1H26 interim ordinary dividend of A$2.80 per share (35% franked), with a payout ratio of 64%, and reiterated its annual payout policy of 50% to 70%. [22]
Macquarie’s financial calendar also listed the interim dividend timeline (ex-dividend, record date, payment date), including payment on 17 December 2025. [23]
Full-year FY2025: baseline profitability and scale
For FY2025 (year ended 31 March 2025), Macquarie reported net profit of A$3,715 million, up 5% on FY2024, and AUM of A$941.0 billion at 31 March 2025. [24]
Its FY2025 annual report snapshot also lists:
- FY2025 dividend per share:A$6.50 (35% franked)
- FY2025 earnings per share:A$9.79
- FY2025 return on equity:11.2%
- Assets under management:A$941.0b [25]
These figures matter because analyst models typically start from the last audited full-year base, then layer in segment assumptions (markets income, performance fees, advisory pipeline, credit growth, funding costs, and so on).
Analyst forecasts for Macquarie stock: price targets and ratings (late December 2025)
If you want a quick “street temperature check” on Macquarie Group stock, consensus targets clustered around the mid‑A$220s are the most repeated theme across major aggregators in late December.
Investing.com consensus (12-month view)
Investing.com’s consensus page (as captured in late December 2025) states:
- Average 12‑month price target:A$224.866
- High:A$255
- Low:A$200
- Consensus rating: “Buy” (with a breakdown shown as 6 buy, 5 hold, 1 sell on the page) [26]
TipRanks: slightly lower average target
TipRanks shows:
- Average target:A$220.94
- High:A$253.26
- Low:A$198.65
- Based on 8 analysts’ 12‑month targets (per its page display). [27]
Simply Wall St: similar mid‑A$220s consensus
Simply Wall St’s valuation page also displays an average target around A$224.87 (with 13 analysts shown on its table in the captured view). [28]
What that implies (and what it doesn’t)
With MQG referenced around A$205 on 25 December 2025, an average target in the A$221–A$225 zone implies high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside over 12 months, depending on the dataset. [29]
But targets are not promises; they’re conditional statements built on assumptions—especially for Macquarie, where earnings can swing with:
- performance fees and valuation marks in asset management,
- advisory and underwriting volumes,
- trading and hedging demand in commodities and financial markets,
- and funding costs, competition, and margin pressure in the banking arm. [30]
The bull and bear debate for Macquarie stock entering 2026
The bull case (why investors stay interested)
Macquarie’s attraction to long-term investors typically comes from its “portfolio” nature: it’s not a single-engine bank.
- Asset management strength: 1H26 shows MAM profit contribution rising strongly, with performance fees cited as a driver. [31]
- Capital returns: An extended buyback program and a franked dividend frame MQG as a stock that can return capital while still investing. [32]
- Sharper strategic focus after the Nomura sale: The December 1 closing reduces complexity and explicitly refocuses MAM toward private markets, while retaining a full-service platform in Australia and adding a distribution partnership with Nomura. [33]
The bear case (what can bite)
The December headlines also underline two recurring concerns:
- Regulatory and operational risk: The ASIC settlement is a reminder that control failures can carry financial penalties and reputational drag—even if the market decides the dollar figure is manageable. [34]
- Earnings variability: CGM’s 1H26 profit contribution declined year-on-year, and Macquarie itself flags exposure to market conditions, volatility events, geopolitical impacts, FX, and regulatory/tax uncertainty as key factors that can influence the near-term outlook. [35]
What to watch next for MQG investors after 25 December 2025
With the ASX closed for the holiday stretch, the near-term MQG “watch list” is less about intraday price action and more about catalysts that can reset sentiment when liquidity returns:
- Court process and follow-through on the ASIC settlement
The penalty and orders remain subject to court consideration and approval, and markets will look for closure and confirmation of remediation progress. [36] - How Macquarie deploys flexibility after the Nomura sale
Investors will track whether capital is directed to buybacks, new private-markets products, bolt-on acquisitions, or balance-sheet buffers—especially as Macquarie continues to describe a cautious operating stance. [37] - The “real” driver: operating group momentum into the next reporting window
The market will likely focus on whether MAM’s performance-fee strength is repeatable, whether Macquarie Capital’s improved activity continues, and whether CGM can sustain client activity without cost creep. [38]
Bottom line: Macquarie stock on 25 December 2025 is a story of focus, discipline—and governance clean-up
As of 25 December 2025, the Macquarie Group stock story is being shaped by three concrete pillars:
- A regulatory settlement headline that is serious in scope but, per early market commentary captured by Reuters, not necessarily thesis-changing on its own. [39]
- A completed strategic divestment to Nomura that refocuses Macquarie Asset Management toward private markets while creating a new distribution partnership. [40]
- A shareholder-return posture anchored by an extended buyback program and franked dividends, supported by a capital position Macquarie says remains comfortably above regulatory minimums. [41]
Analyst consensus targets clustered around the mid‑A$220s suggest the market’s “base case” still allows for upside over the next 12 months—but Macquarie being Macquarie, the path from here will likely be driven less by calm linear compounding and more by how well the group navigates market cycles, deal flow, and operational execution.
References
1. www.asx.com.au, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.asx.com.au, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.asic.gov.au, 6. www.macquarie.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.macquarie.com, 9. www.macquarie.com, 10. www.macquarie.com, 11. www.macquarie.com, 12. www.nomuraholdings.com, 13. www.macquarie.com, 14. www.macquarie.com, 15. www.macquarie.com, 16. www.macquarie.com, 17. www.macquarie.com, 18. www.macquarie.com, 19. www.macquarie.com, 20. www.macquarie.com, 21. www.macquarie.com, 22. www.macquarie.com, 23. www.macquarie.com, 24. www.macquarie.com, 25. www.macquarie.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. simplywall.st, 29. www.investing.com, 30. www.macquarie.com, 31. www.macquarie.com, 32. www.macquarie.com, 33. www.macquarie.com, 34. www.asic.gov.au, 35. www.macquarie.com, 36. www.asic.gov.au, 37. www.macquarie.com, 38. www.macquarie.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.macquarie.com, 41. www.macquarie.com
