Salesforce, Inc. (NYSE: CRM) stock is heading into the year-end holiday stretch with investors debating one big question: is the market still underpricing Salesforce’s pivot from “cloud CRM” to “agentic AI platform,” or is the skepticism justified?
With U.S. markets closed on December 25, 2025 (Christmas Day), the most recent session to anchor any “today” discussion is Wednesday, December 24, when CRM finished at $265.26. [1]
That price leaves Salesforce still nursing a rough 2025 on a year-to-date basis (roughly down ~21% YTD, depending on measurement), even after a strong December bounce off the lows. [2]
So what’s driving the conversation on December 25—and what are analysts forecasting next?
What’s new on Dec. 25: fresh Salesforce stock takes flood in while markets pause
Even on a market holiday, Salesforce stock is getting plenty of ink—mostly because it sits at the intersection of three investor obsessions: AI monetization, enterprise software valuations, and whether the “hardware-first AI trade” rotates into software in 2026.
Barron’s: “AI fears may fade” is the bullish thesis
A major Dec. 25 feature argues Salesforce is positioned to re-emerge as an AI winner, framing 2025’s underperformance as an expectations problem more than a business problem. The piece highlights:
- Agentforce annual recurring revenue (ARR) growing ~330% YoY (to about $540 million, per the article’s figures)
- Profit margins improving to roughly 33%
- A valuation that looks depressed versus many software peers (the piece cites Salesforce trading at under ~6x estimated 2026 sales)
- A scenario where shares could revisit a higher sales multiple and move toward roughly $390 (about 50% upside from recent levels), if growth and sentiment improve [3]
The important nuance: the bullish case isn’t “AI magic dust.” It’s basically: execute + convert pilots to production + keep margin discipline + sentiment resets. [4]
Simply Wall St: regulated-sector adoption as the “stickiness” narrative
A Dec. 25 analysis from Simply Wall St focuses on Agentforce 360 / Data 360 traction in regulated environments—life sciences and government—arguing that deep deployments can raise switching costs and embed Salesforce into core workflows. It points to deployments and expansions involving Novartis and the U.S. Department of Transportation, among others. [5]
Simply Wall St also publishes a framework-style valuation view, projecting longer-term growth assumptions (including a “fair value” estimate near the low-$300s, depending on their model assumptions). [6]
MarketBeat: filings spotlight institutional reshuffling (adds, trims, and the usual noise)
Multiple MarketBeat “instant alert” items dated Dec. 25 compile recent institutional-position changes disclosed in filings, including:
- Brookstone Capital Management boosting its Salesforce stake significantly in Q3 (per the report: up ~66% to ~82,986 shares) [7]
- Other items noting increases or decreases from different managers (typical in 13F season) [8]
These alerts are not price-moving by themselves—but they do reinforce a theme: CRM remains heavily institutionally owned, and positioning is active heading into 2026. [9]
The core catalyst: Agentforce + Data 360 are starting to show up in guidance and ARR
Salesforce’s most recent major fundamental catalyst remains its Q3 fiscal 2026 update (reported Dec. 3, 2025), where the company raised fiscal 2026 revenue and profit outlook as AI adoption improved. [10]
Key datapoints driving the “AI traction” narrative:
- Salesforce forecast fiscal 2026 revenue of about $41.45B–$41.55B (raised versus prior guidance) [11]
- It also lifted adjusted EPS guidance (to roughly $11.75–$11.77, per Reuters) [12]
- Management highlighted Agentforce + Data 360 at nearly $1.4B in ARR, up ~114% YoY; Agentforce alone exceeded $500M ARR in the quarter [13]
This matters because the market’s 2025 complaint wasn’t “Salesforce is dying.” It was more like:
“Show me the monetization curve, and show me it’s not just demos and hype.”
Raising outlook while putting hard ARR numbers in public is Salesforce’s attempt to answer that.
Enterprise proof points: Novartis and USDOT expand Agentforce deployments
Salesforce’s recent announcements also try to shift the AI story from “model benchmarks” to “real deployments with messy constraints”—exactly where enterprise software either earns its keep or gets replaced.
Two headline examples getting referenced repeatedly in late-December analysis:
- Novartis selecting Salesforce’s Agentforce Life Sciences platform, with a plan described as a global rollout over the next five years [14]
- The U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) expanding use of Salesforce and adding AI agents to modernize operations and citizen services [15]
Whether these deals are financially material immediately is almost beside the point. The strategic claim is: agentic AI becomes defensible when it is tied into data governance, compliance, workflows, and a platform customers already run. That’s Salesforce’s lane.
The pricing debate: Salesforce is willing to “invest” in adoption (even at a short-term margin cost)
If there’s a quiet but crucial battleground for CRM stock in 2026, it’s how AI agents get priced.
A recent report notes Salesforce rolling out an Agentic Enterprise License Agreement (AELA)—a flat-rate licensing approach intended to remove budget anxiety and encourage usage. Salesforce executives have suggested they’re comfortable with short-term losses on agentic licensing if it accelerates long-term customer value and future monetization. [16]
Investors should read that two ways (because reality is a two-headed coin):
- Bull case: frictionless adoption → embedded workflows → expansion revenue later
- Bear case: you train customers to expect flat pricing → monetization ceiling
Either way, pricing strategy will likely be one of the most important “non-GAAP” drivers of sentiment around Salesforce stock next year.
Salesforce stock forecast: what Wall Street targets imply for CRM in 2026
Across major tracking platforms, the broad consensus remains bullish-to-moderately bullish, with average targets clustering in the low-to-mid $320s—roughly low-20% upside from ~$265.
A few snapshots:
- StockAnalysis consensus: avg price target ~$324 with a “Buy” consensus [17]
- MarketBeat consensus: avg price target ~$326.68, with targets ranging roughly from the low $200s to the low $400s [18]
- TipRanks shows a similar cluster (average target in the $327 area, with highs around $405) [19]
These targets tend to embed a simple assumption: Salesforce keeps growing high-single digits to low-double digits while maintaining improved margins, and the market stops punishing it for “AI uncertainty.”
Recent named analyst moves worth noting
MarketBeat’s Dec. 25 compilation cites several recent target changes, including:
- Deutsche Bank lifting its target to $360 (Buy)
- Barclays raising its target to $330 (Overweight) [20]
You can find higher targets as well (some firms in the high $300s / low $400s range), but the consensus cluster is still the more meaningful signal of “typical” Street expectations. [21]
Valuation and fundamentals: why “cheap for a software leader” is part of the pitch
Let’s pin down what investors mean when they say Salesforce looks “cheap” (relatively).
As of the latest close:
- Market cap: about $248B [22]
- P/E ratio: about 35x trailing, with a lower forward P/E around ~21x [23]
- 52-week range: roughly $222–$367 (CRM is much closer to the low than the high) [24]
Barron’s frames the valuation compression more sharply, arguing the stock is well off highs and priced at a much lower sales multiple than prior periods—essentially saying: the market is pricing in a lot of disappointment already. [25]
That’s why the “rule of 40” comes up so much in Salesforce commentary: if revenue growth plus operating margin gets near ~40, many investors view that as a sign a software company deserves a healthier multiple again. [26]
Insider and institutional signals: not gospel, but worth watching
Two data streams tend to catch investor attention around year-end:
1) Insider actions
One widely-circulated example: ValueAct’s Mason Morfit reported buying Salesforce shares worth roughly $25 million (a signal some investors interpret as conviction, though insider buys can have many motivations). [27]
2) Institutional position changes (13F season)
Dec. 25 filings recaps include funds adding and trimming CRM positions, including Brookstone’s reported increase, alongside other managers reducing exposure. [28]
This isn’t a clean “smart money is bullish!” signal. It’s more like: CRM is big, widely held, and actively rebalanced—so flows can amplify moves when the narrative shifts.
The Informatica factor: Salesforce’s AI story is also a data story
One of Salesforce’s most important 2025 strategic moves was the Informatica acquisition—announced in May and later completed (per Salesforce’s own release). [29]
The strategic rationale, echoed by Reuters at the time, is straightforward: better control over data integration, governance, and quality supports more reliable enterprise AI outcomes. [30]
For investors, the key is whether this becomes:
- A genuine accelerator for Data 360 / Agentforce adoption and differentiation, or
- Another complex integration that dilutes focus (Salesforce still carries the scar tissue of mixed reactions to past mega-deals)
This won’t be decided by a single quarter. It’s a 2026 story.
Risks that could still bite Salesforce stock in 2026
Salesforce bulls and bears often agree on the risk list—they just disagree on probability.
The most cited issues:
- AI monetization timing
Salesforce has already been punished when outlook implied delayed AI returns—one reason 2025 felt like a grind for the stock at multiple points. [31] - Competition from hyperscalers and platform bundling
The bear case is basically: Microsoft/Google/Amazon + smaller AI-native tools compress CRM pricing power. Even bullish writeups concede competition is intense. [32] - Pricing model uncertainty for agents
Flat-fee licensing can boost adoption—yet raises questions about eventual revenue scaling. [33] - Macro: IT budgets and deal cycles
Enterprise spending can stall when CFOs get grumpy. CRM is resilient, but not immune.
The setup heading into 2026: what to watch (and what could move the stock)
If you’re tracking Salesforce stock into January and Q1, here are the practical catalysts that tend to matter most:
- Agentforce conversion rates: “Proof of concept → production” is the bridge the Street wants crossed. [34]
- Revenue growth trajectory: Salesforce has guided to improving growth; the market will punish any slip. [35]
- Margins and capital returns: the “new Salesforce” narrative is disciplined margins + shareholder returns, not growth-at-any-cost. [36]
- Informatica integration milestones: especially anything that strengthens Data 360 / governance as a moat. [37]
- Brand and positioning shifts: even the idea that Benioff has floated a possible “Agentforce” rebrand shows how central AI agents are to Salesforce’s identity plan. [38]
Bottom line
On December 25, 2025, Salesforce (CRM) stock sits in a strangely interesting place: not a momentum darling, not a busted story—more like a heavyweight platform trying to convince investors that “AI agents” is a revenue engine, not a slide deck.
The day’s most prominent analyses lean bullish—arguing that AI skepticism is already priced in, while ARR figures and regulated-sector deployments suggest Salesforce’s agent strategy is becoming operationally real. [39]
Meanwhile, Wall Street’s consensus price targets imply low-20% upside over 12 months, with a wide target range that reflects how uncertain the AI monetization slope still is. [40]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. simplywall.st, 6. simplywall.st, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.businesswire.com, 15. www.businesswire.com, 16. www.techradar.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.barrons.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.salesforce.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. simplywall.st, 33. www.techradar.com, 34. www.barrons.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.barrons.com, 37. www.salesforce.com, 38. www.businessinsider.com, 39. www.barrons.com, 40. stockanalysis.com
