Lucid Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID) heads into Christmas Day with its stock still pinned near the lows that have defined much of 2025. With U.S. markets closed for the holiday, the most recent trade was $11.81 (Dec. 24), after an intraday range of $11.62–$11.845.
For investors watching Lucid stock right now, the story is a three-way tug-of-war:
- Execution risk (can Lucid ramp the Gravity SUV fast enough to move the financial needle?)
- Liquidity vs. dilution (how long can it fund losses without issuing a painful amount of equity?)
- Sentiment (Wall Street downgrades and heavy short interest keep pressure on the tape)
Below is a detailed, news-forward roundup of what’s happening around Lucid stock as of Dec. 25, 2025, and what the latest forecasts and analyses are emphasizing.
Lucid stock price check on Dec. 25, 2025: where LCID stands
Because Christmas Day is a market holiday, the freshest “today” reference point is the Dec. 24 close/last trade. LCID’s $11.81 price also matches the figure highlighted in major same-day market commentary, with LCID described as sitting near all-time lows and a market cap around the mid–single-digit billions. [1]
Multiple outlets have framed the late-December setup as a classic “deeply out of favor” trade: Lucid’s shares are down sharply year-to-date (commonly cited as roughly 50%+), even as the company points to delivery records and the start of its SUV era. [2]
What’s moving Lucid stock: the downgrade that still hangs over LCID
One of the most market-moving events of December was Morgan Stanley’s Dec. 8 downgrade, cutting Lucid to Underweight and slashing its price target to $10 from $30. [3]
The rationale wasn’t about styling, reviews, or “EV vibes.” It was finance-first:
- Morgan Stanley flagged Lucid’s extended timeline to profitability, saying it does not expect gross profitability until 2028. [4]
- It also warned about “significant dilution risk,” estimating Lucid may need to raise ~$2 billion in equity by the second half of 2026 (relative to a market cap that has been hovering in the low single-digit billions recently). [5]
That call landed in a market already primed to punish cash-burn stories—especially EV makers navigating softer demand and policy headwinds.
The EV market backdrop: tax-credit shock and supply-chain reality
Reuters has been explicit about the macro pressure: Lucid is trying to broaden Gravity demand after the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired at the end of September, a shift that has weighed across the sector. [6]
At the company level, Reuters also pointed to practical constraints impacting Lucid’s 2025 output—chip shortages, rare earth material supply issues, and even fallout from a September fire at an aluminum supplier. [7]
This is the unglamorous part of the EV business that shows up directly in the stock: investors don’t just price the car, they price the supply chain.
Lucid’s big product bet: Gravity Touring expands the addressable market
Lucid’s most important near-term catalyst is still the same: Gravity, the company’s first SUV, and the model intended to move Lucid beyond the Air sedan niche.
In November, Lucid introduced a cheaper Gravity variant, the Gravity Touring, with Reuters reporting a starting price of $79,900, up to 337 miles of range, and seven seats—positioned explicitly to attract a broader buyer base. [8]
Auto outlets have provided additional consumer-level detail. Car and Driver put the Gravity Touring starting price at $81,550 (a difference commonly explained by fees such as destination), with an 89-kWh battery, 560 horsepower, and fast-charging claims of 200 miles in 15 minutes (at up to 300 kW). [9]
And in mid-December, Lucid added a reputational win: the company announced the Lucid Gravity and Lucid Air were both selected for Car and Driver’s 10Best lists for 2026, with Lucid emphasizing Gravity’s range and charging specs and highlighting Touring’s $79,900 base price (excluding destination and other fees). [10]
From a stock perspective, the “Touring” trim matters because it’s a signal Lucid is trying to create a volume ladder rather than living entirely at the ultra-luxury peak.
A new sales lever: Lucid Recharged certified pre-owned program
Another December move aimed at demand (and potentially smoothing revenue) was the launch of Lucid Recharged, Lucid’s first certified pre-owned (CPO) program.
According to the company’s PR release, eligible vehicles start with single-owner cars under 62,000 miles, go through a 160+ point inspection, and include the remainder of the original 4-year/50,000-mile warranty plus an additional 12-month/12,000-mile limited warranty. [11]
Cars.com’s breakdown added practical texture: the inspection is described as 164 points, includes charging tests, and CPO vehicles can be upgraded with features like DreamDrive Pro, while also retaining longer battery/powertrain coverage. [12]
For LCID stock watchers, this matters because CPO programs can (1) create a lower-price on-ramp into the brand, (2) support residual values, and (3) potentially improve monetization of off-lease vehicles—if inventory and demand line up.
The financial core: Q3 results, liquidity, and why the stock still can’t breathe
Lucid’s Q3 2025 results (released Nov. 5) are still the baseline most analysts reference when arguing about LCID’s runway:
- Revenue:$336.6 million
- Deliveries:4,078 vehicles (up 47% year-over-year)
- Production:3,891 vehicles (up 116% year-over-year) [13]
But the bigger stock driver was liquidity strategy.
Lucid said that after quarter end, it agreed with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) to increase its delayed draw term loan credit facility from $750 million to about $2.0 billion—and that total liquidity would have been ~$5.5 billion with that increase (versus $4.2 billion actual at quarter end), with the facility remaining undrawn. [14]
That’s the “survival math” investors obsess over: not whether Lucid has cool engineering, but how long it can fund losses while it ramps.
Convertible notes: Lucid buys time (but the market still prices the risk)
In mid-November, Lucid completed a major financing maneuver: it closed a private offering of $975.0 million of convertible senior notes due 2031. Net proceeds were reported at ~$962.4 million, with about $752.2 million used to repurchase ~$755.7 million principal amount of existing 2026 convertible notes, and the remainder intended for general corporate purposes. [15]
Earlier, Lucid had announced the proposed deal structure: $875 million (plus an option for an additional $100 million) and noted PIF support via a prepaid forward involving Ayar (a PIF subsidiary). [16]
Why did investors care? Because it’s a classic Lucid dilemma:
- These moves can extend runway and reduce near-term refinancing pressure, which bulls love.
- But they also keep the “eventual dilution / equity raise” debate alive, which bears love.
On Dec. 25, The Motley Fool explicitly framed the notes-and-repurchase combo as improving financial flexibility “without much dilution,” while still warning that cash burn remains a central problem. [17]
Lucid’s leadership and organization changes as it scales
Lucid has also been reshaping its leadership bench as it tries to scale globally. In early November, the company announced organizational changes including expanded roles for Emad Dlala (engineering and digital/product development), Erwin Raphael (global revenue responsibilities), and the appointment of Marnie Levergood as SVP of Quality; Lucid also said long-time executive Eric Bach departed. [18]
For the stock, leadership reshuffles rarely move price by themselves—but they become relevant when execution is the entire bull/bear battleground.
Reverse stock split in 2025: why LCID “looks” higher priced than it used to
A key technical detail for any “Lucid stock history” discussion: Lucid completed a 1-for-10 reverse stock split that became effective Aug. 29, 2025, with split-adjusted trading beginning at market open on Sept. 2, 2025, under the same ticker LCID. The SEC filing also describes a proportional reduction in authorized shares (15 billion to 1.5 billion) and explains fractional share handling. [19]
This doesn’t change the company’s value by itself, but it matters for interpreting long-term charts, price targets, and “all-time low” language in commentary.
Short interest and bearish positioning: LCID remains a battleground stock
Lucid is also still heavily shorted, which amplifies volatility.
One data provider (MarketBeat) reported that as of Dec. 15, 2025, Lucid had 45.65 million shares sold short, representing 39.12% of the public float, with a 5.9 days-to-cover ratio based on average volume. [20]
Borrow cost metrics also suggest it’s not cheap to stay short. Fintel’s table of borrow fee rates shows late-December readings in the mid-to-high teens, including entries around Dec. 24. [21]
High short interest cuts both ways:
- It can signal deep skepticism about the business model.
- It can also create the conditions for violent upside moves on genuinely positive surprises (deliveries, guidance, financing, partnerships).
Lucid stock forecasts and price targets: what analysts imply for 2026
Consensus is… not serene.
Aggregators broadly describe Lucid as a Hold-leaning name, reflecting uncertainty about timing and scale. [22]
Price targets vary widely depending on which analyst set you sample. Zacks, for example, lists a forecast range from $10 (low) to $30 (high), with the average implying substantial upside from recent prices—but that “upside” only matters if Lucid executes and avoids destructive dilution. [23]
The most important thing about these forecasts is not the precise dollar figure. It’s what has to be true for any higher target to make sense: Gravity ramp, margin improvement, and a believable path to funding the midsize program.
The midsize platform: Lucid’s “second act” — and the stock’s biggest debate
If Gravity is Lucid’s near-term test, the midsize platform is the existential one.
On Dec. 24, Benzinga reported Lucid is targeting a midsize crossover priced under $50,000, positioned as a potential competitor to the Tesla Model Y, with production discussed as late 2026 and range expectations of 300+ miles using Lucid tech such as the Atlas drive unit. [24]
On Dec. 25, Simply Wall St’s valuation write-up also emphasized the late-2026 midsize platform launch as the pathway to a broader market and operating leverage—while warning that persistent negative gross margins and reliance on fresh capital remain major risks. [25]
This is the heart of the Lucid stock argument:
- Bull case: Lucid’s efficiency/engineering translates into premium differentiation, then scales into midsize volume.
- Bear case: The company can’t fund the bridge to midsize without heavy dilution, and volume economics don’t arrive fast enough.
What to watch next: near-term catalysts for Lucid stock
Heading into early 2026, the LCID catalyst list is fairly clear—even if outcomes aren’t:
- Gravity production and delivery momentum
The stock needs proof that Gravity is not just a great product, but a scalable product (and that Touring meaningfully expands demand). [26] - Cash burn and financing headlines
Lucid’s convertible-note strategy reduced near-term pressure, but the market remains sensitive to any hint of future equity raises—exactly the risk Morgan Stanley highlighted. [27] - Updates on the midsize platform timeline
Every reaffirmation (or slip) on the late-2026 midsize plan will move sentiment because that program is the “volume thesis.” [28] - Demand signals beyond new cars
The Recharged CPO program is a small but telling effort to widen the funnel and support brand economics. [29]
Bottom line on Lucid stock on Dec. 25, 2025
Lucid stock is ending 2025 with deeply split sentiment. The company has credible product momentum (Gravity is real, Touring expands the lineup, and third-party accolades like 10Best help brand heat), and it has taken meaningful steps to extend liquidity through a mix of PIF-backed facilities and maturity management. [30]
But the market is still voting on a harsher question: Can Lucid fund the path to scale without crushing shareholders through dilution—and can it do it in a post-tax-credit, tariff-sensitive demand environment? [31]
References
1. www.fool.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.caranddriver.com, 10. media.lucidmotors.com, 11. www.prnewswire.com, 12. www.cars.com, 13. www.prnewswire.com, 14. www.prnewswire.com, 15. www.prnewswire.com, 16. www.prnewswire.com, 17. www.fool.com, 18. media.lucidmotors.com, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. fintel.io, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.zacks.com, 24. www.benzinga.com, 25. simplywall.st, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.prnewswire.com, 28. www.benzinga.com, 29. www.prnewswire.com, 30. media.lucidmotors.com, 31. www.investing.com
