December 25, 2025 — After-hours recap and pre-market preview
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) enters the final stretch of 2025 with investors digesting a major strategic headline—a non-exclusive AI inference technology licensing agreement with chip start-up Groq and the departure of Groq’s top leaders to Nvidia—while U.S. equities sit closed for Christmas Day. That holiday pause matters: there was no regular closing bell on Thursday, Dec. 25, meaning the most recent “after-hours” read is tied to Wednesday’s early-close Christmas Eve session. [1]
With normal trading set to resume Friday, Dec. 26, tomorrow’s open is the first real chance for full price discovery after this week’s inference-focused deal news—arriving amid typically thin, late-December liquidity and heavy attention on the “Santa Claus rally” window. [2]
NVDA after-hours: what “after the bell” means on Christmas Day
Because NYSE and Nasdaq were closed on Dec. 25, the relevant reference point for NVDA today is the Dec. 24 shortened session, when U.S. markets closed early at 1:00 p.m. ET. [3]
Here are the latest widely reported tape reads from the most recent session:
- Last regular-session close (Wed., Dec. 24): $188.61 [4]
- After-hours print (Dec. 24, ~4:59 p.m. ET): $188.05 (down about 0.3% vs. the close) [5]
- Dec. 24 session range: roughly $186.59–$188.91 [6]
- Market cap: about $4.6 trillion (varies with price) [7]
- 52-week range: about $86.62–$212.19 [8]
In plain English: NVDA didn’t deliver a “new” after-hours move on Dec. 25 because the U.S. market was closed; the stock is simply carrying forward the last post-close indications from Christmas Eve’s early session.
Today’s biggest NVDA headline: Nvidia licenses Groq inference tech and hires Groq leadership
The most consequential NVDA-specific development circulating into tonight is Nvidia’s non-exclusive licensing agreement with Groq, paired with a high-profile talent move: Groq founder/CEO Jonathan Ross and Groq President Sunny Madra (plus other team members) are set to join Nvidia. [9]
A key point investors needed clarified—because it can change how the market frames risk and regulatory scrutiny—was that this is not a standard acquisition announcement:
- Earlier chatter (including an acquisition rumor and an eye-catching price tag) circulated, but reporting and company statements converged on a licensing + executive hires structure rather than a full buyout. [10]
- Groq said it will continue operating independently, with leadership transitions on its side as the Nvidia-bound executives depart. [11]
Why this matters for Nvidia stock: inference is becoming the next competitive battlefield
Nvidia’s dominance has been built on GPUs and system-level infrastructure that power AI training at hyperscalers and enterprises. But as AI matures, investors increasingly focus on the economics of inference—the always-on, real-time workloads behind chatbots, agents, search, recommendation, and industrial AI.
Groq markets itself as an inference specialist, and reporting around the deal frames this as Nvidia adding technology and expertise to strengthen its hand as AI workloads diversify. [12]
This deal also lands inside a broader AI infrastructure boom narrative heading into 2026—an environment where massive capital spending on data centers and AI compute remains the core engine behind the sector’s largest winners. [13]
What to know before the market opens tomorrow (Friday, Dec. 26)
Below is the practical pre-open checklist for NVDA holders and traders—what can move the stock at the open, what to monitor premarket, and what risks matter most in a thin holiday session.
1) The first “real” market reaction to the Groq deal happens Friday
Because the headline emerged into a holiday-impacted tape, Friday’s open is the first full-session opportunity for institutions to reprice NVDA around:
- Whether the Street views this as a smart inference “bolt-on” vs. an expensive distraction
- Whether the deal signals inference margin pressure or inference opportunity expansion
- Whether the structure (licensing + hires) reduces—or merely postpones—antitrust and regulatory questions
Key nuance: reporting explicitly notes this type of licensing-and-talent arrangement has become a popular approach among big tech firms, partly because it can be perceived as less acquisition-like—even if regulators still watch closely. [14]
2) Holiday liquidity cuts both ways
Late-December sessions can exaggerate moves because fewer participants are active. That can mean:
- Sharper gap-ups or gap-downs on relatively modest incremental news
- More “flow-driven” trading (options hedging, index mechanics)
- Faster reversals if early prints don’t find follow-through
MarketWatch also points out that Dec. 26 has historically been one of the most consistently positive days for the S&P 500—useful context, though not a rule. [15]
3) Watch futures tone tonight: they restart while the cash market is closed
Even though stocks are closed today, futures markets can help shape the risk-on/risk-off mood heading into Friday. Investor’s Business Daily noted that Dow Jones futures were set to reopen Thursday evening, which can influence premarket psychology for mega-cap names like Nvidia. [16]
4) CES 2026 is becoming the next near-term “story catalyst” for NVDA
NVDA is heading into January with an unusually bright spotlight at CES 2026. Nvidia’s own schedule shows a multi-day presence in Las Vegas from Jan. 5–9, including “NVIDIA Live at CES 2026 with Founder and CEO Jensen Huang” and related sessions. [17]
IBD reports Huang is expected to brief media on Jan. 5 and participate in keynotes on Jan. 6, potentially setting expectations for product roadmap and AI infrastructure strategy. [18]
Why that matters for tomorrow’s open: traders often start positioning ahead of major visibility events, especially if a stock is consolidating technically and the market is already predisposed toward “AI leadership” narratives. [19]
5) Dividend reminder: NVDA pays tomorrow (but the market impact is usually limited)
Nvidia previously announced it would pay its next quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share on Dec. 26, 2025, to shareholders of record on Dec. 4, 2025. [20]
Important context:
- The ex-dividend date already passed (Dec. 4), so tomorrow’s payment is typically more relevant for income/accounting than for price direction on the open. [21]
6) The economic calendar looks quiet on Dec. 26
If you’re looking for a scheduled macro “spark,” the New York Fed Economic Indicators Calendar shows New York Fed Staff Nowcast scheduled for 11:45 a.m. ET on Dec. 26, with no major headline releases listed for Dec. 25. [22]
Translation: tomorrow may be more about positioning, headlines, and liquidity than about a big data print—unless something breaks unexpectedly.
7) Key levels traders are watching into Friday
From the most recent session data:
- The stock held the high-$180s into the Christmas Eve close (~$188.61). [23]
- Near-term downside reference points often start with the most recent intraday low region (~$186.6 from the latest session range). [24]
IBD also frames NVDA as being in a consolidation with a notable buy-point level well above current prices—context that matters mainly for technically oriented investors. [25]
Forecasts and analyst outlook: where Wall Street sees NVDA next
Analyst target databases vary by methodology and update cadence, but the directional message is consistent across major aggregators: sentiment remains broadly constructive, with average targets well above the last close, albeit with a wide dispersion.
Examples of currently published consensus/target ranges include:
- StockAnalysis: consensus rating listed as “Strong Buy” with an average price target around $252.49 (with a wide low-to-high spread). [26]
- MarketBeat: an average target around $262.14, also showing meaningful upside vs. the most recent price, with highs extending into the mid-$300s. [27]
- MarketWatch estimates page: shows an average target in the ~$260 area and a median around $250, alongside a very wide high/low range. [28]
There are also more aggressive “single-analyst” narratives circulating in today’s market commentary ecosystem, but investors should treat these as scenario-based opinions rather than consensus outcomes—and consider the assumptions behind them (AI capex durability, competitive dynamics, export policy stability, supply constraints, and valuation). [29]
The risks investors are weighing right now
Even on a quiet holiday tape, the risk framework around Nvidia remains familiar—and tomorrow’s session can amplify any of these if headlines hit:
- Competition in inference: Groq’s positioning underscores that inference performance/latency/cost is a fast-moving arena, with multiple architectures competing for mindshare. [30]
- Regulatory/antitrust sensitivity: licensing and acqui-hire structures can reduce some scrutiny versus a clean acquisition, but they don’t eliminate it if regulators perceive competitive harm. [31]
- Geopolitics and export policy: Nvidia’s China exposure and export permissions can swing sentiment quickly. (Several major related developments have been in play this week.) [32]
- Valuation and concentration: Nvidia remains a mega-cap market leader; in thin markets, crowded positioning can increase volatility around any surprise. [33]
Bottom line before the Dec. 26 open
Nvidia stock goes into Friday’s reopening session essentially marking time near $189, with the market’s attention shifting from “training dominance” to the next phase of the AI buildout—inference at scale—after today’s most important headline: the Groq technology licensing agreement and senior-executive hires. [34]
With no trading on Christmas Day, the setup for Friday is a classic post-holiday mix: thin liquidity, seasonal tailwinds that investors love to cite, and a high-profile catalyst list building into January (notably CES 2026). [35]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets involve risk, and prices can move quickly—especially in holiday-thinned sessions.
References
1. www.nasdaqtrader.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.nyse.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. finance.yahoo.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.nasdaq.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.marketwatch.com, 12. www.ft.com, 13. www.ft.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.marketwatch.com, 16. www.investors.com, 17. www.nvidia.com, 18. www.investors.com, 19. www.investors.com, 20. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.newyorkfed.org, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. finance.yahoo.com, 25. www.investors.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.marketwatch.com, 29. www.tipranks.com, 30. www.ft.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.ft.com, 34. stockanalysis.com, 35. www.marketwatch.com
