Updated: Dec. 25, 2025 (U.S. markets reopen Friday, Dec. 26)
Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) goes into Friday’s Dec. 26, 2025 market open with investors weighing a familiar mix of drivers—AWS growth, AI infrastructure spending, retail/holiday execution, and regulatory risk—plus a few very current headlines that could shape sentiment as trading resumes after the Christmas holiday.
In the last session before the holiday (the shortened Christmas Eve session on Dec. 24), Amazon shares finished at $232.38. [1]
Below is what matters most for AMZN heading into Friday’s open, based on the latest available reporting, company updates, and Street forecasts.
Where Amazon stock stands heading into Dec. 26
- Last close (Dec. 24):$232.38 [2]
- After-hours reference (Dec. 24): around $232.01 on one widely followed market data page [3]
- Market cap: roughly $2.45 trillion
- 52-week range:$161.38 low to $258.60 high (AMZN is about ~10% below that high based on the Dec. 24 close) [4]
The short-session close also came on lighter holiday volume (Nasdaq-listed data shows about 11.4 million shares on Dec. 24), which can make price signals noisier than usual. [5]
The big fundamental story: AWS re-acceleration and the “AI stack” strategy
AWS growth was the headline metric last quarter
In its Q3 2025 report (quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025), Amazon said:
- Net sales:$180.2B, up 13% year over year
- AWS segment sales:$33.0B, up 20% year over year
- AWS operating income:$11.4B (up from $10.4B a year earlier) [6]
That AWS re-acceleration matters because many investors still treat Amazon as a “cloud + AI” story first, with retail and ads as powerful (but often lower-multiple) supporting engines.
Why the market cares about Amazon’s AI approach right now
Amazon has been pushing a vertically integrated AI narrative: models + chips + cloud infrastructure—and in December it doubled down organizationally.
On Dec. 16, 2025, CEO Andy Jassy said he asked long-time AWS leader Peter DeSantis to lead a new organization covering Amazon’s most expansive AI models (including “Nova”), silicon development (including Trainium and Graviton), and quantum computing, reporting directly to Jassy. [7]
In plain English: Amazon is trying to tighten coordination across the parts of the stack that determine AI performance per dollar, which is one of the most important competitive battlegrounds in cloud right now.
AI product catalysts: what AWS just announced and why it can move sentiment
Amazon’s AWS re:Invent cycle remains a key narrative driver because it’s where AWS sets expectations around capacity, chip roadmap, and enterprise adoption.
Among the recent re:Invent-linked updates highlighted by Amazon:
- New focus on Amazon Nova foundation models and agentic tooling
- Continued emphasis on custom silicon (Trainium/Graviton) and AI training capacity [8]
Amazon also emphasized in its Q3 release that it has been adding power and capacity to meet AI demand, citing 3.8 gigawatts added in the past 12 months. [9]
What to watch Friday: If the market opens “risk-on,” AI infrastructure leaders can catch a bid quickly—especially in thin, late-December liquidity. Conversely, any renewed fear about AI spending discipline can pressure the group, even if fundamentals remain strong.
The capex debate: AI buildout can fuel growth, but it’s hitting free cash flow
This is the tension bulls and bears keep circling:
- Amazon reported operating cash flow of $130.7B over the trailing twelve months (as of Sept. 30, 2025), up 16% year over year.
- But free cash flow fell to $14.8B, which Amazon attributed primarily to a $50.9B year-over-year increase in purchases of property and equipment (net of proceeds/incentives). [10]
On top of that, Amazon has been public about large-scale data-center and AI infrastructure commitments, including:
- $15B planned investment in Northern Indiana data center campuses, adding 2.4 gigawatts of capacity and targeting AI/cloud demand [11]
- Up to $50B to expand AI and supercomputing infrastructure for U.S. government agencies, with construction expected to break ground in 2026 and add nearly 1.3 gigawatts across classified and GovCloud regions [12]
- A $35B investment plan in India through 2030, with AI-driven digitization among the stated pillars [13]
How this can affect AMZN near-term: When markets are calm, investors often reward “AI capacity buildout.” When markets are jittery, the same spending can be framed as “cash flow risk.” Friday’s tape may be more about macro sentiment than new company data—but this capex narrative is the lens many traders use.
Retail and delivery: USPS uncertainty is a fresh headline risk (and opportunity)
Amazon and USPS negotiations are in focus
A significant December headline: Reuters reported Amazon is in discussions with the U.S. Postal Service about their future relationship and is evaluating options ahead of contract timing, amid reports of stalled negotiations and a possible shift toward auction-based contracting. [14]
Why this matters for AMZN investors:
- Shipping economics and last-mile reliability influence Prime value perception and retail margin.
- Any move toward more in-house delivery could be a long-term strategic win, but it can also require investment and execution.
- Headlines in this area can swing sentiment quickly because they touch both cost and customer experience.
Amazon’s “speed” narrative remains central
In the same Q3 earnings release, Amazon emphasized fulfillment network improvements and said it expected to deliver Prime orders at its fastest speeds again this year, while expanding same-day perishable grocery delivery to more than 2,300 communities by the end of 2025. [15]
That’s relevant heading out of the holiday season because delivery performance can influence repeat purchase behavior and long-term Prime retention.
Regulatory overhang: the FTC settlement is real money, and refunds just hit a key milestone
One of the most concrete, near-term regulatory developments for Amazon in 2025 has been the FTC’s Prime-related case outcome.
What the FTC says happened—and what Amazon agreed to pay
The FTC announced a $2.5 billion settlement against Amazon tied to allegations around Prime enrollment and cancellation practices. The FTC said the settlement includes a $1 billion civil penalty and $1.5 billion in consumer refunds, plus conduct requirements. [16]
Amazon’s Q3 results explicitly reflected a $2.5B charge related to an FTC legal settlement (alongside severance costs), highlighting that the issue has already flowed through financials. [17]
Refund timing is especially relevant going into the Dec. 26 open
The FTC’s refunds page states Amazon would provide automatic refunds between Nov. 12, 2025 and Dec. 24, 2025, with eligible customers receiving Prime subscription fee refunds up to $51, followed by an additional claims process for others who don’t receive an automatic refund. [18]
Why this matters now: Even if the market has largely “priced” the settlement, the refund process can still generate consumer-facing headlines and investor questions about Prime conversion, churn, and future subscription UX constraints.
Antitrust case timing: trial date pushback reduces near-term calendar pressure
On the antitrust front, reporting indicates the FTC/Amazon antitrust trial timeline has been pushed back, with coverage pointing to a proposed March 29, 2027 start date rather than early February 2027. [19]
This does not remove the overhang, but it does reduce the chance that near-term trading is dominated by imminent trial milestones.
Wall Street forecasts: price targets point to upside, but expectations are no longer “cheap”
Consensus targets remain bullish
One widely cited analyst compilation (46 analysts) lists Amazon with a “Strong Buy” consensus and an average price target around $284.7, with a stated range from $195 to $340. [20]
Some of the latest target actions shown on that same page include:
- BMO Capital lifting a target to $304 (maintained rating)
- Wedbush reiterating $340 [21]
How to interpret this for Dec. 26: With AMZN around the low $230s, these targets can support dips, but they can also raise the bar—any sign of AWS deceleration or margin disappointment later can trigger faster multiple compression.
Earnings timing: watch “estimated” dates, not just what calendars say
Several market calendars list Amazon’s next earnings event in early February 2026 (often around Feb. 5, 2026), but these are commonly marked as estimates/unconfirmed until Amazon formally announces. [22]
That matters because, in late December, positioning often starts to anticipate the next earnings catalyst—even if it’s weeks away.
Technical setup: the trend is constructive, but resistance overhead is real
Different data providers vary slightly, but the broad technical picture going into Dec. 26 looks like this:
- 50-day moving average: about $230
- 200-day moving average: roughly $216 [23]
That’s a typical “constructive uptrend” signature: price above key longer-term averages.
Momentum indicators vary by source:
- One provider lists a 14-day RSI around the mid-50s (often read as neutral-to-positive). [24]
- Another technical dashboard shows a higher RSI reading and a “Strong Buy” technical summary as of late Dec. 24. [25]
Practical levels many traders will watch Friday
Based on where the moving averages and recent highs/lows cluster:
- Near-term support zone: ~$230 (around the 50-day) [26]
- Bigger support zone: low-to-mid $216–$220s (near the 200-day region depending on provider) [27]
- Resistance area: the mid-$230s to $240 region (psychological + recent price congestion), with the 52-week high at $258.60 as the longer-term “ceiling” reference [28]
What to watch before the bell on Dec. 26
If you’re tracking AMZN into Friday’s open, these are the most likely “headline movers”:
- Any follow-up on USPS negotiations / delivery network strategy
This has real margin and customer-experience implications, and it’s fresh enough to move the stock on a slow-news day. [29] - AI infrastructure sentiment (not just Amazon-specific)
Amazon has placed big bets on AI capacity and custom silicon; sector risk appetite can amplify AMZN’s move even without company news. [30] - FTC/Prime settlement after-effects
The settlement is known, but the consumer refund cycle (and any media attention) can still influence how investors frame Prime growth and churn risk. [31] - Thin liquidity dynamics
Late December trading can exaggerate moves—especially for mega-caps that dominate index flows.
Bottom line for AMZN into Friday’s open
Going into Dec. 26, 2025, Amazon stock is set up in a way that’s familiar to longtime holders:
- The bull case leans on AWS re-acceleration, Amazon’s end-to-end AI strategy (models + chips + cloud), and long-run operating leverage. [32]
- The bear case focuses on whether massive AI/data-center spending keeps pressuring free cash flow, plus regulatory and logistics uncertainties. [33]
- The Street’s baseline remains constructive, with consensus targets materially above the latest close—but expectations are elevated. [34]
If you only track one thing at the open: watch whether AMZN holds above the ~$230 area (around the 50-day moving average region). A steady hold can reinforce the “trend intact” narrative; a break can pull focus back to support levels and the broader market’s risk appetite. [35]
Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market data referenced reflects the latest available sources as of Dec. 25, 2025, and can change quickly when markets reopen.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.macrotrends.net, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.aboutamazon.com, 7. www.aboutamazon.com, 8. www.aboutamazon.com, 9. www.aboutamazon.com, 10. www.aboutamazon.com, 11. www.aboutamazon.com, 12. www.aboutamazon.com, 13. www.aboutamazon.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.aboutamazon.com, 16. www.ftc.gov, 17. www.aboutamazon.com, 18. www.ftc.gov, 19. www.mlex.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.barchart.com, 24. www.gurufocus.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.barchart.com, 27. www.barchart.com, 28. www.macrotrends.net, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.aboutamazon.com, 31. www.ftc.gov, 32. www.aboutamazon.com, 33. www.aboutamazon.com, 34. stockanalysis.com, 35. www.barchart.com
