U.S. markets reopen Friday, Dec. 26, 2025 for a full session, following an early close on Dec. 24 and the Christmas Day closure—even as federal offices were ordered shut for Dec. 24 and Dec. 26 (the exchanges are sticking to their normal schedule). [1]
For Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), the setup into the post-holiday session is defined by three big themes: (1) the company’s Q1 fiscal 2026 results and November sales trend, (2) tariff-related uncertainty and a closely watched legal fight to preserve potential duty refunds, and (3) a split Wall Street tape of upgrades/downgrades and price-target changes that has sharpened the valuation debate. [2]
Costco stock price check: where COST left off heading into Dec. 26
Costco shares last traded around $871.86 on Dec. 24, up roughly 2% on the day, with trading volume near 1.82 million shares. [3]
That price action matters because Costco remains well off its 52‑week high, with widely cited 52‑week ranges clustering around the mid‑$840s to about $1,078 area—meaning a lot of the 2025 story has been about whether Costco’s premium multiple can hold as growth normalizes. [4]
Why Dec. 26 can trade “different” (and why that matters for COST)
There are two practical reasons investors treat the day-after-Christmas session cautiously:
- Liquidity can be thinner (many desks are lightly staffed), which can exaggerate moves on upgrades/downgrades or macro headlines.
- Seasonality gets attention: one MarketWatch analysis notes Dec. 26 has historically been among the most reliably positive S&P 500 sessions, though seasonality is never a guarantee. [5]
For Costco specifically, “thin tape” conditions can amplify reactions to analyst notes, tariff headlines, or positioning into Costco’s next near-term data drop: December sales results in early January.
The core fundamental backdrop: Costco’s Q1 FY2026 results (reported Dec. 11)
Costco’s latest earnings report (for Q1 fiscal 2026, ended Nov. 23, 2025) showed continued top-line momentum and resilient membership economics:
- Net sales:$65.98B, up 8.2% year over year
- Total revenue:$67.31B
- Membership fees:$1.329B, up 14.0%
- Net income:$2.001B
- Diluted EPS:$4.50
- Comparable sales:+6.4% (and stronger when adjusting for gasoline and FX)
- E‑commerce/digital:digitally enabled comparable sales +20.5% [6]
Reuters’ earnings coverage also highlighted that Costco’s quarter came in ahead of consensus on both revenue and EPS (per LSEG), and pointed to continued traction in same‑day delivery partnerships (Instacart in the U.S., and Uber Eats/DoorDash internationally). [7]
What investors liked—and what they’re still debating
Bull case: Costco is still putting up mid‑single‑digit (or better) comps with a growing member base, and membership fees—often viewed as the company’s most durable profit engine—are expanding strongly.
Bear case: Even with strong execution, Costco’s stock has been trading at a premium valuation versus many retailers, keeping pressure on the shares when growth shows any sign of cooling or when renewal-rate chatter heats up. Yahoo Finance’s valuation snapshot recently placed Costco around ~46–47x trailing earnings and low‑40s forward P/E, reinforcing how much expectation is embedded in the price. [8]
November sales trend: the last “fresh” datapoint before the holiday stretch
Because Costco reports monthly sales, investors frequently treat those releases as mini-catalysts—especially during the holiday period.
In its November 2025 sales report (the four weeks ended Nov. 23, 2025), Costco reported:
- Net sales:$23.64B, up 8.1% year over year
- Comparable sales:+6.9% total company
- E‑commerce comparable sales:+16.6% [9]
That report essentially confirmed that Costco entered the core holiday season with solid traffic and ticket dynamics—and it sets the stage for the next major datapoint: December sales results.
The next big catalyst: Costco’s December sales results (Jan. 7, 2026)
Costco’s own investor relations calendar lists “December Sales Results” on Jan. 7, 2026, and its earnings call transcript indicates the release is expected after market close, covering the five weeks ending Sunday, Jan. 4. [10]
Why it matters for COST ahead of the Dec. 26 open:
- It’s the market’s clearest read on holiday demand inside Costco’s high-frequency model.
- It can either validate or challenge narratives around traffic deceleration, renewal-rate drift, and mix (big-ticket vs. consumables).
- Strong December numbers have historically been capable of moving the stock quickly, especially when valuation is the dominant investor debate.
Tariffs are a real headline risk—and Costco is taking it to court
One of the most consequential “non-earnings” stories around Costco into late December is tariffs.
The lawsuit: preserving potential tariff refunds
Reuters reports Costco sued the U.S. government to ensure it can receive refunds if the Supreme Court ultimately limits presidential tariff authority (in this case tied to tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act). Costco has argued the legal uncertainty makes action necessary now to preserve its rights, while the company continues adapting via steps like local sourcing and supplier adjustments. [11]
A legal analysis from Norton Rose Fulbright framed Costco’s move as a bellwether that could spur additional importer actions to protect refund rights amid the same uncertainty. [12]
Why investors care (even if you don’t model refunds)
For Costco shareholders, the tariff issue cuts two ways:
- Near-term operational pressure: even a small portion of the assortment can become margin-sensitive if costs rise and Costco holds the line on pricing.
- Optionality: if refunds become possible, there may be a cash-flow and/or accounting impact—but timing and outcomes are uncertain.
Reuters has also reported on a developing market where companies sell tariff-refund claims for “pennies on the dollar,” underscoring how uncertain the legal path is—and how much some businesses prefer cash certainty over legal upside. [13]
Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported Costco has been actively managing assortment and inventory choices to deal with tariff uncertainty—another signal that tariffs are influencing real merchandising decisions, not just legal filings. [14]
Membership is still Costco’s “engine”—and it’s back in the spotlight
The most important long-term debate for Costco investors usually comes back to one question: How durable is the membership model?
Business Insider recently emphasized that Costco’s profitability depends heavily on membership fees, not retail markups—describing a model where membership income functions as near “profit fuel” while merchandise pricing stays lean. [15]
That context matters because the latest analyst debates focus on:
- Renewal rates
- Paid member growth
- Executive upgrades (higher-tier memberships tend to drive disproportionate spending)
A Nasdaq analysis highlighted that renewal rates remain near historical highs, citing figures around 92.2% in the U.S./Canada and 89.7% worldwide at quarter-end—still strong levels, but closely monitored because Costco’s premium valuation assumes ongoing membership durability. [16]
Analyst moves and forecasts: Wall Street is split, but the “middle” remains constructive
Going into Dec. 26, the analyst picture is unusually active, with meaningful moves on both sides:
Bearish / cautious calls
- Roth Capital downgrade to Sell, PT cut to $769 from $906: Roth flagged weakening membership metrics and softer underlying trends in a note carried by Yahoo Finance. [17]
- Wells Fargo PT cut to $900 from $1,000 (Equal Weight): Wells Fargo kept a neutral-ish stance while trimming the target. [18]
Bullish / supportive calls
- Northcoast upgrade to Buy from Neutral, PT $1,100: The upgrade circulated widely in ratings roundups and market notes. [19]
- Bernstein raises PT to $1,146 (Outperform): Investing.com reported Bernstein’s higher target and reiterated bullish positioning around Costco’s long-term model and growth outlook. [20]
- Telsey reiterates Outperform with $1,100 target: Also reported via Investing.com analyst coverage. [21]
Where consensus tends to cluster
One Nasdaq-hosted analyst-forecast summary put the average one-year price target around $1,071/share, with a wide range from the $600s on the low end to above $1,200 on the high end—an unusually broad spread that reflects how much disagreement there is about valuation compression versus long-run compounding. [22]
The valuation debate: Costco’s business is strong—so why has the stock been choppy?
The simplest way to describe Costco’s 2025 stock narrative is: fundamentals stayed solid, but the multiple got questioned.
- Yahoo Finance’s key statistics page continues to show Costco trading at elevated P/E multiples (mid‑40s trailing; low‑40s forward). [23]
- Investopedia has pointed out that even as the business posted strong results, the stock has lagged broader benchmarks in 2025, highlighting how “great company” and “great stock at this price” are not always the same thing in the short run. [24]
- MarketWatch reporting earlier this month noted investor sensitivity to signs that certain U.S. sales trends were cooling, which can matter more when a stock is priced for excellence. [25]
A quick technical read: levels traders may watch on Dec. 26
Technical signals don’t change Costco’s fundamentals, but they can influence short-term flows—especially in thinner holiday markets.
Recent technical summaries show Costco trading below several widely watched moving averages, including intermediate and longer-term measures—often interpreted as evidence that the stock is still in a “digesting” phase after its earlier peak. [26]
Also watch the mid‑$840s to mid‑$850s area (near the low end of the 52‑week range) as a psychological support zone, and the $900 area as a round-number level that’s also close to where multiple analyst targets and commentary have congregated. [27]
What to watch at the open: a practical checklist for Dec. 26
Here are the most investor-relevant items to track before and shortly after the bell:
- Any tariff-related legal headlines (especially Supreme Court-related developments or broader importer actions). [28]
- Analyst follow-through: do upgrades/downgrades drive real volume, or fade in a thin session? [29]
- Price action relative to ~$900: Wells Fargo’s target cut to $900 and other commentary make it a sentiment line in the sand. [30]
- Positioning into Jan. 7 (December sales): many investors will treat any dips or pops as “pre-positioning” ahead of that release. [31]
- Macro tape and holiday liquidity: Dec. 26 can be volatile simply because participation is lighter, even in a “full” trading session. [32]
Bottom line for Costco stock heading into Dec. 26, 2025
Costco enters the Dec. 26 session with freshly reaffirmed fundamentals (solid comps, strong membership-fee growth, accelerating digital performance) but still faces the market’s two biggest overhangs for COST: tariff uncertainty and valuation sensitivity. [33]
If the post-holiday tape is quiet, Costco may trade more with market beta and seasonal flows. But any incremental headline on tariffs—or a meaningful wave of analyst activity—can move the stock quickly in a thinner session. The next true company-specific “tell” is close: December sales on Jan. 7, which should shape sentiment as investors look toward Costco’s next earnings checkpoint in early March. [34]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Stocks involve risk, and past performance or seasonal patterns do not guarantee future results.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. investor.costco.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.morningstar.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. investor.costco.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. finance.yahoo.com, 9. investor.costco.com, 10. investor.costco.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.projectfinance.law, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.wsj.com, 15. www.businessinsider.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. finance.yahoo.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. finance.yahoo.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. finance.yahoo.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. www.morningstar.com, 26. www.barchart.com, 27. www.morningstar.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. finance.yahoo.com, 30. www.tipranks.com, 31. investor.costco.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. investor.costco.com, 34. investor.costco.com
