Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) heads into the Dec. 26, 2025 session with momentum—and with expectations running high after a powerful 2025 rally. The next trading day is the first full U.S. session after Christmas Day’s market closure, and GS is hovering near record territory, setting the stage for a potentially headline-sensitive open.
Below is a detailed, news-driven look at what’s moving Goldman Sachs stock right now, what Wall Street is forecasting, and the catalysts investors are likely to focus on next.
Goldman Sachs stock snapshot: where GS stands right now
- Last close (most recent session): $910.78 (Dec. 24, 2025), up $8.58 (+0.95%) on the day.
- Intraday range (Dec. 24): roughly $898.86 to $911.82.
- Record context: Macrotrends lists GS’s all-time high closing price at $911.03 (Dec. 11, 2025), meaning the latest close is only about $0.25 (~0.03%) below that record close. [1]
- Market cap and share count: Morningstar data shows ~$273B market cap and ~300M shares outstanding (figures vary slightly by data vendor and timing). [2]
What that means for the open: when a megacap financial stock trades near all-time highs, price action can become more reactive to incremental news—especially around dealmaking, regulation, and any updated outlook for capital markets activity.
The biggest GS catalysts investors are tracking into the open
1) Dealmaking optimism: Goldman’s CFO sees momentum carrying into 2026
A major reason GS has been bid up in 2025 is the rebound in M&A and capital markets—Goldman’s home turf.
In early December, Goldman CFO Denis Coleman said 2025 is on track to be the second-biggest year in history for announced M&A, and described visibility into 2026 activity levels as “very encouraging.” Reuters also noted industry data showing 63 megadeals ($10B+) announced in 2025 through late November, a new record. [3]
Why it matters for GS stock: higher M&A volume tends to lift advisory fees, while a stronger IPO and underwriting environment can lift equity underwriting—two revenue lines that can materially change profitability when deal flow accelerates.
2) Goldman is repositioning its advisory engine toward AI and digital infrastructure deals
Goldman has also been reshaping coverage and leadership to match where corporate spending and acquisition interest is clustering.
Reuters reported in mid-December that Goldman is restructuring its technology, media, and telecom (TMT) investment banking group to focus more on digital infrastructure and AI-related deals, creating two new internal sectors with new leadership. [4]
Why it matters: if 2026 deal flow increasingly concentrates around data centers, AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and platform consolidation, this kind of coverage redesign is meant to help Goldman win (and execute) more of the biggest mandates.
3) Asset & Wealth Management expansion via acquisitions: Innovator and Industry Ventures
Goldman has been pushing to grow more durable, fee-based revenue—and two acquisitions are central to that narrative:
Innovator Capital Management (defined-outcome ETFs)
- Goldman announced an agreement to acquire Innovator on Dec. 1, 2025. Innovator manages $28B in assets under supervision across 159 defined outcome ETFs (as of Sept. 30, 2025), according to Goldman’s announcement. [5]
- Reuters described the deal as a roughly $2B cash-and-stock transaction to expand in fast-growing active/defined outcome ETFs. [6]
Industry Ventures (venture capital platform / secondaries)
- Goldman announced on Oct. 13, 2025 an agreement to acquire Industry Ventures, which it said manages $7B in assets under supervision and has made 1,000+ investments since 2000. [7]
- Reuters reported consideration of $665M at close plus up to $300M contingent through 2030 performance—often cited as up to $965M total. [8]
Why it matters for GS stock: investors increasingly reward Goldman when it demonstrates it can grow higher-quality, recurring revenues (asset management fees) without diluting returns—especially in years when trading conditions are less favorable.
4) AI inside Goldman: efficiency, “OneGS 3.0,” and operating leverage
Goldman’s leadership has framed AI as both a productivity lever and a way to “seamlessly deliver the firm” across business lines.
Reuters reported that Goldman discussed rolling out an AI-driven initiative (“OneGS 3.0”) and that internal communications referenced potential job cuts and a hiring slowdown—while still expecting a net increase in headcount overall. [9]
Why it matters: in a high-valuation environment, the market often wants proof of operating leverage—that revenue growth can translate into margin and ROE expansion.
The key fundamental numbers investors keep coming back to
Latest quarterly performance: Q3 2025 was strong, driven by advisory and AWM
In Goldman’s third quarter 2025 earnings materials (filed as Exhibit 99.1), the firm reported:
- Net revenues:$15.18B
- Net earnings:$4.10B
- EPS:$12.25
- Annualized ROE:14.2%
- Book value per share:$353.79 [10]
Segment highlights for Q3 2025 included:
- Investment banking fees:$2.66B, up 42% year over year (with advisory listed at $1.40B) [11]
- Asset & Wealth Management net revenues:$4.40B, up 17% year over year [12]
That mix is important: the market has tended to award Goldman a higher multiple when both banking/advisory and asset management fees are contributing meaningfully (instead of performance leaning too heavily on one trading quarter).
Capital returns: dividend + buybacks remain a central part of the bull case
Goldman has been explicit that a “sustainable and growing dividend” and capital returns are priorities—supported by capital rule outcomes.
- In its Stress Capital Buffer statement, Goldman said it expected an SCB requirement of 3.4% (implying a standardized CET1 requirement of 10.9%, effective Oct. 1), and noted the firm’s capital plan included a 33% dividend increase from $3.00 to $4.00 per share (subject to board approval at the customary meeting). [13]
- In Q3 2025 materials, Goldman reported the board declared a $4.00 dividend payable Dec. 30, 2025 (record date Dec. 2, 2025) and stated it returned $3.25B to common shareholders during the quarter, including $2.00B of buybacks. [14]
- Earlier, in Q1 2025 (Exhibit 99.1 filing), Goldman said the board approved a share repurchase program authorizing up to $40B of common stock repurchases. [15]
For GS stock into year-end: investors often treat a large buyback authorization as a “floor” narrative—if earnings and capital ratios remain solid—because management has more flexibility to retire shares on drawdowns.
Wall Street forecasts: what analysts and estimates are signaling now
Analyst rating trend: “Hold/Neutral” is common at these levels
Despite the strong price action, many analyst summaries still cluster around Hold/Neutral—largely because the stock has already moved so far, so fast.
- Investing.com’s consensus page shows 19 analysts with an average 12‑month price target around $813.47, with a high estimate near $971 and low estimate around $630, and the overall consensus labeled Neutral. [16]
- Yahoo Finance’s GS page also displays a 1‑year target estimate of $813.47 (as captured in the listing excerpt). [17]
How to interpret that (without over-reading it): when the stock price (~$911) sits well above the average published target (~$813), it often means analysts are balancing strong fundamentals against valuation and cycle risk—not that they suddenly expect Goldman’s business to deteriorate.
Next major event: Q4 2025 earnings date is set
Goldman published its earnings-call schedule update showing:
- Fourth quarter 2025 results:Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026 (results ~7:30 a.m. ET; call at 9:30 a.m. ET) [18]
That date matters because the stock is pricing in a lot of good news already. Any gap between expectations and delivered results—especially in trading, underwriting, or expense discipline—can move the stock sharply.
Near-term earnings expectations: market estimates cluster around ~$11–$12 EPS for the quarter
Estimates vary by provider, but one widely-followed earnings model:
- Zacks listed a Q4 2025 EPS estimate of $11.61 (as of its update). [19]
For traders into the Dec. 26 open, the key isn’t just the number—it’s how expectations are set for:
- investment banking fees (advisory + underwriting),
- trading conditions into year-end,
- and management’s stance on 2026 deal flow.
Risks and “watch-outs” that can matter more when GS is near record highs
1) Private credit headline risk: attention on Goldman Sachs BDC
A fresh Wall Street Journal report highlighted ongoing challenges at Goldman’s private-credit BDC vehicle, describing a multi-year effort to work through troubled positions and reporting multiple quarters of portfolio value decline. [20]
Important nuance: Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD) is a separate publicly traded entity from Goldman Sachs Group (GS). Still, the story can influence sentiment around:
- underwriting standards in certain legacy private credit vintages,
- credit loss trends,
- and reputational risk in alternatives.
2) “Great news” can already be priced in
With GS trading around record levels and after a strong 2025 run, the bar can rise for:
- earnings beats that “beat by enough,”
- guidance tone (especially around 2026),
- and expense discipline (compensation, tech spend, litigation).
3) Regulatory and political backdrop can shift bank multiples quickly
A Financial Times report on big-bank market value gains tied part of 2025’s surge to a friendlier deregulatory push and stronger investment banking conditions. [21]
Even if Goldman is well-capitalized, bank stocks can re-rate quickly if the market believes the regulatory trajectory is changing—either toward looser or tighter capital and activity constraints.
What to watch specifically on the Dec. 26, 2025 open
Here’s a practical checklist traders and long-term investors often use heading into the first session after a holiday:
- Is GS breaking out or rejecting at record levels?
With the stock essentially sitting at the doorstep of record closes, watch how it trades relative to the recent peak zone (record close around $911.03). [22] - Any fresh deal headlines (announced transactions, mandate wins, or regulatory developments)
With Goldman leaning into M&A momentum and sector realignment around AI/digital infrastructure, incremental headlines can matter more than usual. [23] - Updates or commentary around the acquisitions pipeline
The market will keep scoring Goldman on whether Innovator + Industry Ventures bolster the “durable revenue” story in Asset & Wealth Management. [24] - Any new notes that shift the price-target narrative
When the stock trades above the average target, even small changes in analyst language (from “Neutral” to “Buy,” or vice versa) can affect short-term flows. [25]
Bottom line for investors
Going into the Dec. 26, 2025 open, Goldman Sachs stock is priced like a leader: near record highs, supported by a revived deal cycle, active steps to expand fee-based asset management (Innovator, Industry Ventures), and a shareholder return story reinforced by dividends and buybacks.
The tradeoff is that at these levels, GS can become more sensitive to anything that threatens the “virtuous cycle” narrative—whether that’s a stumble in trading performance, a sour credit headline, or signs that the M&A/IPO window is narrowing.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.macrotrends.net, 2. www.morningstar.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.goldmansachs.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.goldmansachs.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.goldmansachs.com, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.investing.com, 17. nz.finance.yahoo.com, 18. www.goldmansachs.com, 19. www.zacks.com, 20. www.wsj.com, 21. www.ft.com, 22. www.macrotrends.net, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.goldmansachs.com, 25. www.investing.com
