London | Friday, 26 December 2025 — The UK stock market is effectively on pause today, with the London Stock Exchange closed for the Boxing Day bank holiday. But “no trading” doesn’t mean “no market story”: investors are spending the day digesting a strong 2025 run for the FTSE 100, fresh signals from the make-or-break retail season, and a global backdrop dominated by a year-end risk rally and a fresh spike in precious metals that could ripple through London-listed miners when UK dealing resumes. [1]
Is the UK stock market open today?
No. London’s stock market is shut on Friday, 26 December for Boxing Day, following the Christmas Day closure. The last UK cash-equities session was the shortened Christmas Eve trade, and the next moves in FTSE-linked prices will be driven mainly by overseas trading (US equities, global commodities, FX and futures-linked positioning) until London reopens. [2]
That matters because year-end liquidity is already thin — and thin markets can exaggerate swings in currencies and commodities that feed directly into many of the FTSE 100’s biggest sectors (energy, mining, banks). [3]
What happened in the last London session?
In the most recent London session (Christmas Eve), the FTSE 100 ended slightly lower in quiet, position-adjusting trade. Reuters reported the index slipped 0.2%, while the mid-cap FTSE 250 edged down 0.07%. AstraZeneca and GSK were both down roughly 0.5%, consistent with investors trimming exposures into the holiday break. [4]
Corporate news also cut through the low-volume tape: BP agreed to sell a 65% stake in Castrol to Stonepeak for about $6 billion, part of a broader divestment push aimed at reducing debt and improving returns, Reuters noted. [5]
The bigger picture: FTSE 100 heads for a standout 2025 finish
Even with the late-December lull, the UK market’s headline story is the same: the FTSE 100 is closing out 2025 with a powerful gain, supported by heavyweight sectors that have been in favour globally.
Reuters said the FTSE 100 is set to finish 2025 with about a 20.7% advance, outperforming both European and US benchmarks, helped by miners, financials and defence shares. [6]
That sector mix is crucial for understanding why the UK’s blue chips have been able to shine even while domestic growth has looked sluggish at times. Earlier this week, for example, Reuters highlighted miners rallying as copper prices surged to a record high above $12,000, lifting names such as Anglo American, Antofagasta and Rio Tinto, while big banks like HSBC and Barclays also gained in holiday-thinned trading. [7]
At the same time, the FTSE’s defensive and commodity tilt has made it unusually sensitive to global macro forces — particularly rate expectations, the US dollar, and metals prices.
Today’s global backdrop: year-end risk appetite — and a precious-metals shockwave
Although London is closed, global markets are not uniformly shut. Reuters reported Asian equities pushed higher in thin holiday trading, with broader regional indices buoyed by improving risk appetite into the year-end period. The same Reuters wrap also flagged that the US dollar weakened, lifting currencies including sterling to recent highs and supporting risk sentiment. [8]
But the standout “today” driver — with direct implications for London-listed miners — is the explosive move in precious metals.
Reuters reported on 26 December that silver hit a record high around $75/oz, while gold and platinum also pushed to new records, extending an extraordinary 2025 run for the complex. The same report cited forecasts from market participants projecting gold could reach $5,000 and silver $90 by mid‑2026 (a bullish scenario, not a certainty), with the rally tied to expectations for US rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risk. [9]
Why this matters for the UK market:
- London’s large-cap index contains globally significant precious-metals exposure (directly via miners and indirectly via broader materials linkages).
- The FT’s year-end scorecard underscores that Fresnillo and Endeavour Mining were among the most powerful UK large-cap winners in 2025, explicitly benefitting from the boom in silver and gold. [10]
If precious metals remain elevated when London reopens, that’s likely to be one of the first “macro-to-FTSE” transmission channels investors watch.
Retail and consumer sentiment: Boxing Day signals split — and hedge funds circle UK retailers
Boxing Day is a major datapoint for UK consumer-facing stocks, even when markets are shut, because it shapes expectations for January trading updates.
The retail picture today is mixed — and the divergence itself is part of the story:
- The Guardian reported research suggesting shoppers could spend about £3.8 billion over Boxing Day 2025, up roughly 2% year-on-year, with online growth outpacing high-street gains. [11]
- The Times, citing Barclays card-spending analysis, reported a more downbeat view: Boxing Day sales could fall by around £1 billion to roughly £3.6 billion, as cost-of-living pressure keeps consumers cautious — even as average spend per shopper rises. [12]
For listed retailers, that split matters because it reinforces a theme investors have wrestled with all year: the UK consumer isn’t collapsing, but spending remains highly selective, with heavy discounting and pressure on margins.
Adding another layer, The Times reported that hedge funds have been increasing bearish bets against a range of UK retail names. It named Ocado as the most shorted retail stock (with 7.39% short interest cited), alongside other targets including WH Smith, Sainsbury’s, Kingfisher, Asos, B&M, Marks & Spencer, Pets at Home and Burberry. The report said investors are watching closely for the first wave of January trading statements — starting with Next, followed by Marks & Spencer and Tesco — for confirmation of how festive demand translated into profits. [13]
For the wider UK market, retail matters beyond the sector itself: consumer strength (or weakness) feeds into inflation expectations, rate-path assumptions, and the tone around UK domestic growth — all of which can influence bank shares and rate-sensitive midcaps.
Corporate governance and sentiment: scrutiny over UK transparency moves
Another UK-listed-company storyline developing into year-end is the debate around transparency and governance.
The Guardian reported the UK government has discontinued a public register that tracked large shareholder revolts over executive pay (a tool used to flag companies facing significant investor dissent). Critics argued the move could reduce visibility for investors and weaken accountability, while the government framed the change within a broader push to reduce business frictions. [14]
For the stock market, governance debates can influence:
- how global allocators assess “UK plc” risk and stewardship,
- whether the UK is seen as raising or lowering the bar for investor protections,
- and how comfortable long-term institutions are with valuation multiples.
It’s not always an immediate price driver — but it can affect sentiment at the margin, particularly when international investors are already comparing the UK’s appeal versus the US and Europe.
Winners and losers: what the FTSE 100’s 2025 scorecard says about market leadership
With just days left in the year, a key question for investors is whether 2025’s leadership persists into 2026.
A Financial Times review of the FTSE 100’s best and worst performers highlighted a market shaped by AI disruption, leadership changes and a commodity boom. Among the standout risers it named Fresnillo, Airtel Africa, Endeavour Mining, Babcock and Rolls‑Royce, while laggards included WPP, Bunzl, Diageo, Hikma and Auto Trader. [15]
The WPP story is also a reminder that index composition shifts can matter. FTSE Russell (part of LSEG) confirmed in its December quarterly review that WPP would leave the FTSE 100 and enter the FTSE 250, while British Land would join the FTSE 100. [16]
That combination — sector leadership plus index changes — can reshape passive flows and year-end positioning, especially in the final sessions of December.
The rates lens: Bank of England policy remains a major 2026 swing factor
Even for the FTSE 100 (often described as “global” because so much revenue is earned overseas), UK rates still matter — for banks, insurers, housebuilders, and sterling itself.
Reuters reported that on 18 December the Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% in a tight 5–4 vote, and signalled a gradual approach going forward. The pound reversed earlier weakness and was last up on the day, while gilt yields rose after the decision — reflecting a market still debating the pace of future cuts. [17]
That “gradual cuts, uncertain end‑point” dynamic is likely to remain central in early 2026, especially if consumer and wage data stay choppy.
Forecasts and outlook: where strategists see UK equities heading in 2026
On forecasts, the tone going into 2026 is cautiously constructive — but with plenty of caveats.
Interactive Investor reported UBS expects growth to improve in 2026, forecasting profit growth of 5% in 2026 and around 15% in 2027. UBS held a Neutral stance on UK equities and laid out scenarios for the FTSE 100: a base case of 10,000 by end‑2026, an upside of 10,800, and a downside of 7,200 in its most pessimistic case. It also noted two structural issues that matter specifically for the UK: the FTSE 100’s significant reliance on commodity price trends and the fact that a large share of revenues are generated outside the UK, making sterling movements important for local-currency returns. [18]
Zooming out, Reuters’ global strategist polling suggests investors are not assuming another straight-line rally. A Reuters poll published in late November found most major global stock indices were expected to be higher by end‑2026, but over half of surveyed strategists saw a correction as likely in coming months — warning that 2025’s outsized gains could be hard to repeat and volatility could rise. [19]
For UK investors, that matters because the FTSE 100’s resilience has partly been a function of global risk appetite and commodities — both of which can reverse quickly if a broader correction hits.
What to watch next for UK stocks
When London trading resumes after the Boxing Day closure, investors are likely to focus on a tight set of catalysts:
- Precious metals and miners
With silver, gold and platinum hitting record levels on 26 December, any follow-through could quickly feed into FTSE-listed mining names and the broader materials sector. [20] - Sterling direction
Reuters flagged a weaker dollar pushing sterling to recent highs; continued GBP strength can be a translation headwind for overseas earners — but it can also signal easing imported inflation pressure. [21] - Retail read-through from Boxing Day
Sales expectations vary by dataset (GlobalData/Guardian vs Barclays/The Times), so the market will likely lean heavily on early‑January company updates for confirmation on volumes, discounting and margins. [22] - Positioning into year-end and early January
Thin liquidity can amplify moves — especially with US markets open on 26 December even while London is shut, creating a window where global risk moves can accumulate before UK investors can respond in cash equities. [23] - Rate expectations into 2026
After the Bank of England’s December cut and guidance for gradual easing, incoming inflation and labour-market data will shape whether markets price a faster or slower path — with knock-on effects for banks, insurers and domestic cyclicals. [24]
Bottom line
The UK stock market isn’t trading today — but the investment narrative is moving fast. The FTSE 100 goes into the final stretch of 2025 with a strong gain and clear sector leadership (miners, financials and defence), while Boxing Day retail signals remain conflicted and global markets are being reshaped by a fresh, record-setting surge in precious metals.
For investors, 26 December is less about price action in London and more about building a watchlist for what’s likely to drive the first meaningful UK sessions of the new year: commodities, sterling, the pace of Bank of England cuts, and whether consumer-facing companies can protect margins through a discount-heavy trading environment. [25]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.ft.com, 11. www.theguardian.com, 12. www.thetimes.com, 13. www.thetimes.com, 14. www.theguardian.com, 15. www.ft.com, 16. www.lseg.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.ii.co.uk, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.theguardian.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com
