NEW YORK — As of 9:17 a.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, U.S. markets are in the final stretch of the year with thin, post-Christmas liquidity and a “Santa rally” narrative in play, while stock index futures point to a nearly flat open. [1]
For POSCO Holdings Inc. (NYSE: PKX)—the U.S.-listed ADR of South Korea’s steel-and-materials group—the timing matters: the NYSE regular session hasn’t opened yet (the opening bell is 9:30 a.m. ET), so headline-driven moves can look bigger than they really are when volume is light.
Below is what’s driving the POSCO story right now, what analysts are forecasting, and what to know before the next full trading session begins.
Where POSCO stock stands going into today’s session
The last regular-session reference price for PKX on major quote pages is $54.66 (with a prior close also shown as $54.66), and recent session data shows an open of $53.92 and a day’s range of $53.92–$54.94, with a 52-week range of $39.40–$61.24. [2]
Premarket prints can diverge by venue and timing, but one widely followed data page showed PKX premarket around $53.50 on very light volume (about ~3,090 shares), down roughly 2%—exactly the kind of move that can reverse quickly once the full market opens. [3]
Macro tape check: Reuters reported that at 8:13 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down ~0.13%, S&P 500 E-minis down ~0.05%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis up ~0.03%, with traders watching whether the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” extends into early January. [4]
The big drivers: why POSCO is showing up on investor radar
POSCO’s equity story is increasingly a two-engine narrative:
- Steel and downstream automotive steel (still the cash-flow heart)
- Energy & battery materials (the growth option on electrification, storage, and next-gen chemistries)
The most market-relevant updates in recent weeks sit right at that intersection.
1) POSCO’s Louisiana move: a direct bet on U.S. “green steel” and auto supply chains
One of the most concrete, investor-readable catalysts is POSCO’s confirmed U.S. exposure through Hyundai’s Louisiana steel project.
A recent Form 6‑K disclosure (as reposted in U.S. market filing coverage) states POSCO plans to form a wholly owned special purpose company in Delaware (“POS‑Louisiana,” tentative) and use it to acquire a 20% stake in Hyundai Steel Louisiana LLC, with the total contribution expected to be about $582 million (paid in stages through the end of 2027). The disclosure frames the investment as a response to changes in the North American steel market and a way to secure a foundation for sustainable automotive steel production. [5]
This wasn’t a bolt-from-the-blue idea. Earlier in 2025, Reuters reported Hyundai Motor Group and POSCO signed an MOU around cooperation on the planned U.S. steel plant; Reuters also noted production was slated to begin in 2029, and connected the broader push to trade-policy pressures. [6]
Why investors care:
- U.S.-based production can reduce exposure to cross-border trade friction for North American customers.
- Electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking is generally aligned with lower-emissions pathways than traditional blast furnaces, particularly when paired with cleaner electricity and scrap inputs.
- For POSCO specifically, it’s a way to remain relevant in the North American auto steel value chain as OEM supply chains re-localize.
2) Lithium supply is now “board-level strategy,” not a side quest
POSCO has been unusually explicit that lithium and energy materials are core to its long-term plan.
The MinRes deal: $765 million for exposure to Tier-1 Australian lithium assets
In November, Reuters reported Australia’s Mineral Resources agreed to sell POSCO a 30% stake in part of its lithium business for $765 million, creating an incorporated JV that ultimately gives POSCO an indirect 15% interest in the Wodgina and Mt Marion lithium mines (while MinRes remains operator). [7]
That Reuters report also included a note from RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker, who described the transaction as validating the quality of the assets and strengthening MinRes’ position—useful context because it’s third-party framing of why POSCO chose these assets. [8]
The deal terms and executive commentary show up even more clearly in MinRes’ ASX materials. The investor presentation/announcement reiterates the $765 million upfront consideration, POSCO’s concentrate offtake proportional to its stake, and includes direct executive comments—among them POSCO CEO In Hwa Chang emphasizing energy materials as a “core growth driver” alongside steel and the focus on stable, cost-competitive raw materials. [9]
POSCO’s own framing: “global lithium player” ambition, plus DLE
POSCO’s Newsroom has described the lithium push as foundational to becoming a “global lithium player,” and it has also laid out the strategic role of Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE)—a next-generation approach positioned as faster and potentially less land/water intensive than evaporation ponds. [10]
Key investor tension: lithium is strategic, but pricing is volatile. Reuters has described how the lithium price crash pressured producers and reshaped deal-making, which is part of the backdrop for why supply security and cost position matter so much. [11]
3) Battery materials pivot: POSCO Future M pushes into LFP and solid-state
POSCO’s battery materials affiliate activity is relevant for PKX holders because it feeds the “second engine” narrative that management has highlighted.
LFP cathodes: aiming at the fast-growing ESS market
On December 24, Dong‑A Business Review (DBR) reported POSCO Future M signed a joint venture agreement with CNGR and its Korean subsidiary FINO to produce LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cathode materials, explicitly targeting growing energy storage system (ESS) demand. The report said construction of an LFP cathode plant in Pohang is scheduled to begin in 2026, with mass production targeted for 2027, and a longer-term capacity ambition of up to 50,000 tons per year. It also reported plans to convert part of an existing high‑nickel line to start LFP supply in 2H 2026. [12]
Solid-state collaboration: Factorial MOU
Earlier in December, POSCO Future M announced an MOU with U.S.-based Factorial to cooperate on all-solid-state battery materials development, including quotes from POSCO Future M’s Hong Young‑Jun and Factorial CEO Siyu Huang on supply-chain resilience and commercialization readiness. [13]
Why this matters for valuation narratives: LFP is often associated with cost-efficient chemistries (especially in ESS and mass-market EVs), while solid-state is a longer-dated option on performance and safety. Together, they show POSCO Future M trying to avoid being trapped in only one chemistry cycle.
4) Steel backdrop: China’s output controls and global trade friction are back in the headlines
Steel remains cyclical—and in global steel, China is the gravity well.
On December 26, Reuters reported China said it will continue regulating crude steel output from 2026–2030, prohibit illegal new capacity, and highlighted overcapacity pressures and weak domestic consumption tied to property-market weakness. Reuters also noted that robust exports have triggered protectionist responses globally, and cited China’s plan to roll out an export licensing system from 2026 for about 300 steel-related products. [14]
How this connects to POSCO:
- If China constrains output meaningfully, that can influence regional pricing dynamics—though enforcement and demand matter as much as policy.
- If trade barriers rise, regional players with localized footprints (or plans to localize) can look more resilient—tying back to POSCO’s Louisiana-linked strategy.
5) Decarbonization strategy: POSCO + BHP on “near zero emissions” iron
Another structural theme in POSCO’s longer-term equity story is decarbonization.
Reuters reported in October that BHP and POSCO signed an agreement to advance hydrogen-based “near zero emissions” iron via a demonstration plant at POSCO’s Pohang works, with commissioning targeted for early 2028 and capacity of 300,000 metric tons per year. [15]
For investors, these projects matter less as near-term earnings drivers and more as license-to-operate and future cost-of-carbon hedges—particularly as carbon border measures and procurement standards evolve.
What POSCO said in its latest results: steel margins held, battery losses narrowed, restructuring continued
In its Q3 update, POSCO Holdings reported consolidated revenue of KRW 17.261 trillion, operating profit of KRW 639 billion, and net profit of KRW 387 billion, noting the third consecutive quarter of operating profit improvement. It also stated that standalone POSCO recorded an operating margin of 6.6%, and that battery materials losses narrowed due to increased cathode sales and improvements linked to lithium pricing and inventory valuation effects. [16]
The company also highlighted ongoing restructuring: seven restructuring deals in Q3 generating about KRW 400 billion in cash, and a pipeline of additional restructuring projects through 2027. [17]
Forecasts and analyst outlook: price targets imply upside, but the range is wide
Analyst target data for the ADR suggests meaningful dispersion—typical for a cyclical business with commodity exposure plus “optionality” in battery materials.
One widely cited set of analyst estimates lists an average target price around $74.15, with a high near $126.94 and a low near $54.14, and an “average recommendation” shown as Buy (based on a larger analyst count). [18]
What to do with that (without pretending it’s prophecy):
- A wide target range often signals analysts disagree on the speed of steel-cycle normalization, the value of the battery materials platform, and the sustainability of shareholder returns.
- For investors, it’s less about the exact number and more about what assumptions drive the bull vs. bear cases (steel pricing, China export dynamics, lithium spreads, and capex discipline).
Dividends and shareholder returns: what income-focused investors should note
Dividend pages tracking the ADR show POSCO paying dividends quarterly, with an annualized figure around $1.39 per share and a recent ex-dividend date of Nov. 26, 2025 (figures vary slightly by data vendor and FX effects). [19]
Separately, POSCO’s investor materials have referenced treasury share activity, including share cancellation tied to buybacks, as part of its shareholder return posture. [20]
If you’re looking at PKX before today’s opening bell: practical things to watch
Because it’s 9:17 a.m. ET and the regular NYSE session hasn’t opened, here’s what tends to matter most over the next couple hours—especially in a low-liquidity holiday window:
1) Don’t over-interpret premarket prints
Premarket volume cited on major quote pages is tiny relative to normal session volume; the “real” price discovery typically starts after 9:30 a.m. ET. [21]
2) Track the two narrative engines separately
- Steel: China policy headlines and trade barriers (today’s China output-control news is a reminder). [22]
- Battery materials: lithium supply security (MinRes), LFP/ESS push, and next-gen tech collaborations. [23]
3) Watch for follow-through on the Louisiana project
The Form 6‑K puts numbers and timelines around POSCO’s commitment. Whether investors treat that as accretive strategy or capex risk can drive sentiment. [24]
4) Keep an eye on the calendar
Multiple market data pages list POSCO’s next earnings timing around late January 2026 (commonly shown as Jan. 29, 2026). [25]
5) Macro matters more when the tape is quiet
Reuters’ framing this morning—flat futures, rate-cut expectations, and thin trading—suggests single-stock moves can be more noise-prone than usual. [26]
Bottom line
POSCO Holdings stock is increasingly trading as a hybrid: a global steel cyclicals play plus a longer-duration wager on battery materials and supply-chain localization.
Into today’s U.S. open, the story catalysts are tangible (Louisiana stake economics and timing, lithium JV structure and offtake, LFP plant roadmap), but the market backdrop is also classic late-December: low volume, high headline sensitivity, and fast sentiment shifts. [27]
Sources and expert references used in this report
- Reuters on U.S. premarket conditions and the “Santa rally” window (includes Annex Wealth’s Brian Jacobsen). [28]
- POSCO Form 6‑K coverage on the $582M Louisiana investment structure and timing. [29]
- Reuters on POSCO/Hyundai cooperation and Louisiana production timeline. [30]
- Reuters on the $765M MinRes lithium JV deal (includes RBC analyst Kaan Peker commentary). [31]
- MinRes ASX presentation with executive quotes (MinRes Chair Malcolm Bundey; POSCO CEO In Hwa Chang). [32]
- POSCO Q3 results summary (revenue, operating profit, margin, restructuring cash generation). [33]
- POSCO lithium strategy explainer featuring POSCO Research Institute commentary (Jae‑bum Park). [34]
- Reuters on China’s 2026–2030 steel output controls and export licensing plan. [35]
- Reuters on BHP + POSCO hydrogen-based low-emissions iron demonstration plant. [36]
- POSCO Future M + Factorial solid-state battery materials MOU (includes executive quotes). [37]
- DBR report on POSCO Future M’s LFP cathode JV and plant timeline/capacity. [38]
- Analyst target/rating snapshots (range and average target) from widely used market data pages. [39]
- Quote/market data context (close, range, 52-week range, premarket snapshot, market cap, earnings date). [40]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.stocktitan.net, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. announcements.asx.com.au, 10. newsroom.posco.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. dbr.donga.com, 13. newsroom.posco.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. newsroom.posco.com, 17. newsroom.posco.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.posco-inc.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.stocktitan.net, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.stocktitan.net, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.stocktitan.net, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. announcements.asx.com.au, 33. newsroom.posco.com, 34. newsroom.posco.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. newsroom.posco.com, 38. dbr.donga.com, 39. www.marketwatch.com, 40. www.investing.com
