10:13 a.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025
In that holiday-thin session, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE: AAP) is trading around $41.04, down roughly 0.2% on the day, after opening near $40.81 and moving between $40.60 and $41.92 so far.
The bigger backdrop matters today because Wall Street is navigating a classic end-of-year cocktail: light post-Christmas volume, indexes hovering near record territory, and investors still digesting the implications of recent Federal Reserve rate cuts heading into 2026. [1]
What’s happening in the market right now—and why AAP investors should care
Friday’s trading session is unfolding in a market environment that can be deceptively tricky: prices move on fewer shares, spreads can widen, and headlines can punch above their weight.
Reuters reports the S&P 500 is finishing 2025 near record highs and flirting with the psychologically loud 7,000 level, while investors look ahead to next week’s Fed minutes and further signals on the 2026 rate path. [2] Reuters also described thin post-holiday trading as the market reopened, with expectations that rate cuts and earnings resilience could support equities into next year. [3]
For Advance Auto Parts stock, that macro setting matters because AAP is still a turnaround story—and turnaround stories tend to trade on confidence, liquidity, and forward guidance as much as on last quarter’s numbers.
AAP stock price today: where shares stand at 10:13 a.m. ET
As of this morning’s New York timestamp, AAP is hovering around $41, with relatively modest volume reported so far in the session.
For quick peer context: major competitors are also relatively steady early today—AutoZone (AZO) near $3,456, O’Reilly (ORLY) near $92.59, and Genuine Parts (GPC) near $125.41.
That “calm tape” is typical for the day after Christmas. The important thing is not the penny-to-penny jiggle—it’s what the market thinks AAP’s multi-year repair job is worth.
The big AAP narrative: a multi-year turnaround after a major divestiture
Advance Auto Parts spent the last year-plus simplifying the business and reworking its operating model.
Worldpac sale: the divestiture that reshaped the company
A key inflection point was the sale of Worldpac to Carlyle, a deal Advance said carried a transaction value of $1.5 billion, with estimated net proceeds of roughly $1.2 billion after taxes and transaction costs. [4] Reuters covered the sale as part of Advance’s effort to streamline operations. [5]
In plain English: AAP sold a major wholesale distribution business so it could focus capital and management attention on its core “blended box” retail/pro business—then used that breathing room to fund a restructuring.
Store footprint and distribution restructuring: the messy, necessary part
In its Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 materials, Advance described a restructuring plan approved in November 2024 that anticipated closing ~500 stores, ~200 independent locations, and four distribution centers by mid-2025. [6]
That’s the painful medicine. The investment thesis is that the medicine works.
The latest company “hard data”: Q3 2025 results and updated full-year guidance
Advance’s most recent major operational readout came with its Third Quarter 2025 report (quarter ended October 4, 2025). [7]
Q3 2025 highlights (what the market liked)
Advance reported:
- Net sales: about $2.0 billion (down year over year), with comparable store sales up 3.0% [8]
- Adjusted operating income margin:4.4% (a sharp improvement from the prior year’s level) [9]
- Adjusted diluted EPS:$0.92 [10]
CEO Shane O’Kelly called it the company’s strongest quarterly performance in over two years and emphasized that comparable sales were led by the Pro channel (professional installers), with the DIY side also positive. [11]
Just as important: Advance explicitly linked margin improvement to footprint optimization completed in March and lower product costs via strategic sourcing. [12]
Updated full-year 2025 guidance (the numbers investors keep re-pricing)
As of the Q3 report, Advance updated (and in some areas tightened) its FY 2025 guidance:
- Net sales:$8.55B–$8.60B [13]
- Comparable store sales:0.7%–1.3% [14]
- Adjusted operating margin:2.4%–2.6% [15]
- Adjusted diluted EPS:$1.75–$1.85 [16]
- Free cash flow (including one-time strategic cash costs):outflow of about $80M–$90M [17]
The company also stated its 2025 guidance assumes current tariffs remain in place for the rest of 2025. [18]
Liquidity and capital allocation: dividend is back in the conversation
Advance said it ended the quarter with over $3 billion of cash on the balance sheet. [19]
It also declared a regular cash dividend of $0.25 per share, payable January 23, 2026 to shareholders of record January 9, 2026—a detail income-focused investors will care about, even if the stock is mostly trading like a turnaround story. [20]
New leadership and supply-chain execution: a fresh catalyst (and a reminder of the core challenge)
On December 8, 2025, Advance announced it appointed Ronald Gilbert as Senior Vice President of Supply Chain, effective December 22, 2025, reporting directly to CEO Shane O’Kelly. [21]
This matters because supply chain is where AAP’s turnaround either becomes real… or becomes PowerPoint vapor.
The company’s announcement also highlighted measurable progress:
- Track to operate 16 U.S. distribution centers by end of 2025, down from 38 in 2023 [22]
- Target of 60 market hubs by mid-2027 [23]
If you’re trying to understand AAP’s stock, this is the beating heart of it: in-stock availability, speed, and reliability for Pro customers—the customers who buy frequently and predictably.
Market hubs and “right part, right place”: what AAP is building
Advance has been expanding “market hubs”—larger locations designed to keep far more parts closer to customers and nearby stores.
In a March 2025 update, Advance said that after completing a strategic optimization phase of its U.S. retail footprint, it expected to open 30 new locations in 2025 and at least 100 additional new locations through 2027, including market hubs. [24]
The company described market hubs as carrying roughly 75,000–85,000 SKUs, compared with 20,000–25,000 in a typical store—an operational lever meant to improve same-day fulfillment and reduce the “sorry, we don’t have it” moments that send customers to competitors. [25]
The Q3 2025 slide deck adds color: Advance projected 33 hubs by end-2025 (from essentially none at end-2023), and emphasized distribution center consolidation plus hub expansion as a combined strategy. [26]
Analyst forecasts for AAP stock: cautious optimism, wide disagreement
Wall Street’s view of AAP is still “cautious, but not dismissive”—and the spread between targets shows how much execution risk remains.
Multiple analyst-aggregation services show a wide range of targets, often clustering in the $40 to $65 zone, with averages in the low-to-mid $50s:
- MarketBeat shows an average price target around $51.13 (with high $62, low $39). [27]
- TipRanks shows an average price target around $56.38 (high $65, low $40), with a consensus leaning Hold. [28]
- Zacks lists forecasts ranging from $40 to $65, with an average implying meaningful upside from recent prices. [29]
There are also notable single-firm datapoints: Investing.com reported UBS maintained a Neutral rating with a $65 price target ahead of the Q3 report. [30] Meanwhile, other coverage has pointed to multiple firms adjusting targets as the story evolves—often reflecting a tug-of-war between “turnaround progress” and “still not out of the woods.” [31]
The practical takeaway for investors: the Street isn’t pricing AAP like a doomed retailer, but it also isn’t granting it best-in-class status. It’s pricing uncertainty—and demanding proof.
AAP’s demand backdrop: older cars support the aftermarket, even when consumers get weird
One tailwind for the whole auto parts space is that Americans are keeping vehicles longer.
S&P Global Mobility reported the average age of vehicles in the U.S. reached 12.8 years in 2025, a record level that tends to support ongoing maintenance and repair demand over time. [32]
That doesn’t guarantee AAP wins share—but it does suggest the “addressable need” for parts and repairs isn’t going away just because the economy has moods.
Key risks investors are weighing right now
AAP’s story is improving, but it’s still a story with teeth. The market is watching a few pressure points:
Execution risk in supply chain + Pro service
The company itself is leaning hard into distribution consolidation and hub expansion. Any stumble—stock-outs, slower delivery times, integration hiccups—hits Pro customers fast and shows up in comps. [33]
Cash flow reality vs. accounting progress
Advance guided for FY 2025 free cash flow to be negative (roughly an $80M–$90M outflow, including one-time strategic costs). Turnarounds can look profitable on margins before they look healthy in cash. [34]
Tariffs and cost environment
Advance explicitly noted its full-year assumptions include tariffs staying as they are through 2025—so any policy changes could force a re-think on pricing, sourcing, or margins. [35]
What investors should watch next (and what matters before the next session)
Because the NYSE is open right now, “before the next session” mostly means: don’t let holiday trading fool you into overconfidence.
Here’s what’s most relevant heading into the next trading day (Monday, Dec. 29):
1) Holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves
With many desks lightly staffed, price movement can be noisier than usual. Reuters and AP both flagged subdued post-holiday activity and mixed trading as markets reopened. [36]
2) Macro catalysts are still driving sentiment into year-end
Reuters’ week-ahead framing is clear: markets are watching the Fed’s next communication, and investors are positioning for how 2026 growth and policy will look. [37]
For AAP specifically, a risk-on tape often helps turnarounds; a sudden risk-off shock can punish them disproportionately.
3) Watch for operational follow-through—and any incremental news
The December supply-chain leadership change is the sort of thing that can look minor, then become major if it coincides with better in-stocks, better service levels, and better Pro retention. [38]
4) Mark the dividend dates if you care about income mechanics
AAP’s declared dividend schedule (record date and pay date) can matter for short-term positioning and for longer-term investors tracking capital return signals. [39]
5) Next earnings timing: still “estimated,” but calendars are circling late February
As of today, some market calendars estimate AAP will report next results around February 25, 2026 (based on historical patterns), though investors should treat this as a placeholder until the company confirms. [40]
Bottom line: AAP stock is trading like a turnaround that’s showing progress—but still has to prove durability
At roughly $41 in this morning’s New York session, Advance Auto Parts stock is back in the zone where investors argue about trajectory rather than survival.
The bullish case rests on continued execution: supply chain productivity, market hub expansion, and sustained strength in the Pro channel—backed by clearer guidance and a balance sheet reshaped after the Worldpac sale. [41]
The skeptical case points to the same facts and simply asks the hardest question in retail turnarounds: can you make the improvements stick long enough to win share, not just cut costs? Analyst targets clustering above the current price—but spread widely—tell you the market doesn’t think that question is settled. [42]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 7. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 8. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 9. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 10. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 11. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 12. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 13. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 14. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 15. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 16. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 17. s1.q4cdn.com, 18. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 19. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 20. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 21. www.businesswire.com, 22. www.businesswire.com, 23. www.businesswire.com, 24. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 25. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 26. s1.q4cdn.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.tipranks.com, 29. www.zacks.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. finance.yahoo.com, 32. www.spglobal.com, 33. s1.q4cdn.com, 34. s1.q4cdn.com, 35. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.businesswire.com, 39. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 40. www.zacks.com, 41. ir.advanceautoparts.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com
