New York (Friday, December 26, 2025 — 12:36 p.m. ET): U.S. markets are open for a full session today despite the post‑Christmas lull, and trading conditions are notably thin. [1]
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is modestly higher midday, helped by fresh China smartphone shipment data and a court development tied to the Apple Watch. Around midday in New York, AAPL last traded around $274.50, up about 0.25% on the day, with an intraday range roughly $273.11–$275.35.
Apple stock price check: where AAPL is trading right now
As of the latest available mid‑session print, Apple shares were:
- Price: ~$274.50
- Day move: +$0.69 (+0.25%)
- Intraday range: ~$273.11 to ~$275.35
- Session tone: steady, low‑drama bid in holiday-thinned liquidity
Apple’s market capitalization remains around $4.0 trillion based on mainstream market data providers, underscoring how much index performance still depends on megacaps. [2]
The broader market backdrop: quiet session, near record highs, “Santa rally” watch
Apple is trading against a year‑end tape where major benchmarks are hovering near record territory in light volume—an environment that can exaggerate moves on even modest headlines.
Reuters described U.S. stock indexes as holding near all‑time highs in thin post‑Christmas trading, with the S&P 500 hitting an intraday record before easing and the Dow remaining close to a recent peak. [3]
A separate Reuters “week ahead” note highlighted the S&P 500 approaching the 7,000 milestone and framed the late‑December period as investors look for an upbeat finish to a strong 2025. [4]
In live market proxies around midday:
- SPY (S&P 500 ETF) was fractionally lower (~‑0.12%).
- QQQ (Nasdaq‑100 ETF) was also slightly down (~‑0.05%).
- XLK (Tech sector ETF) was modestly higher (~+0.18%).
And importantly for today’s “is the exchange open?” question: major U.S. exchanges are operating a regular full day on Dec. 26 (after the holiday), per Reuters. [5]
What’s moving Apple stock today
1) China demand signal: foreign‑branded phone shipments jump 128% in November
AAPL bulls have been sensitive to China data all year, and the latest read was a positive surprise: Reuters reported that foreign‑branded phone shipments in China (including iPhones) rose 128.4% year‑over‑year in November, based on CAICT data. Reuters also noted overall phone shipments were up only 1.9% year‑over‑year to 30.16 million units, while foreign‑branded shipments totaled 6.93 million units—a standout rebound relative to the broader market. [6]
That matters for Apple because investors often treat China as both:
- a demand barometer for the iPhone cycle, and
- a policy and competitive risk zone (local rivals, regulation, geopolitics).
Barron’s pointed to the China shipment surprise as one of the key catalysts underpinning Apple’s mild gains in today’s quiet tape. [7]
2) Apple Watch litigation headline: a near‑term import-ban risk cools (for now)
The second tailwind is legal: a federal judge denied a request that would have blocked imports of certain Apple Watch models amid the Masimo dispute, according to reporting summarized by Barron’s and Bloomberg Law coverage of the case docket. [8]
This doesn’t “end” the fight—investors still have to price:
- ongoing litigation uncertainty, and
- the possibility that trade or ITC processes could re‑heat headline risk. [9]
But in thin liquidity sessions, “no new ban today” can be enough to keep the stock supported.
The bigger AAPL story heading into 2026: iPhone momentum, AI expectations, and an expensive valuation
iPhone cycle and guidance: Apple’s own tone has been upbeat
Apple’s last major guidance tone (from late October) leaned constructive. In an interview with Reuters, CEO Tim Cook said he expected double‑digit iPhone sales growth year‑over‑year for the holiday‑focused quarter and overall revenue growth of 10%–12%, which exceeded analyst expectations cited by Reuters (via LSEG data). [10]
Cook also acknowledged ongoing supply constraints on several iPhone models at the time—often interpreted by investors as demand strength, though it can also create delivery‑timing noise. [11]
China share data earlier in the cycle also looked supportive
Separate Reuters reporting earlier this fall cited Counterpoint data showing Apple reaching about a 25% share of China smartphone sales in October, with sales jumping year‑over‑year on demand for the iPhone 17 series. [12]
Taken together, investors have a narrative: the iPhone 17 cycle is proving more resilient than feared, particularly if China’s late‑year data continues to stabilize.
AI: Wall Street is increasingly framing 2026 as Apple’s “prove it” year
While Apple has often been criticized for moving later than peers on headline AI, several major research notes in December pushed the idea that 2026 could be an inflection year—especially around Siri.
Morgan Stanley’s Erik Woodring raised his price target to $315 (from $305) and kept an Overweight stance, arguing Apple could shift from AI laggard toward leadership as new Siri capabilities roll out in spring 2026. [13]
Other firms echoed the “AI as re‑rating catalyst” theme:
- Evercore ISI (Amit Daryanani) raised its target to $325 from $300 with an Outperform rating. [14]
- Citi lifted its target to $330 (from $315) citing a firmer upgrade cycle and iPhone 17 strength; the note also highlighted the iPhone 12/13 installed base entering a replacement window. [15]
- Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reiterated a bullish view and raised his target to $350 (from $320) in early December, keeping Apple among the Street’s most prominent high‑target calls. [16]
What the “targets” collectively imply: the modal view on the Street is not that Apple is “broken,” but that the next leg higher likely requires either (1) sustained iPhone upside, (2) credible AI monetization, or (3) both.
Valuation: still premium-priced, even by megacap standards
At current levels, Apple’s trailing P/E is roughly 36–37x on common market data dashboards—elevated versus many mature hardware peers and a key reason the stock can be sensitive to any growth disappointment. [17]
That premium puts extra weight on:
- Services durability,
- upgrade-cycle length, and
- whether AI features can drive both hardware pull‑through and new services revenue without compressing margins.
Regulatory and legal risks investors are pricing right now
One reason Apple’s upside can feel “grindy” even on good demand data: regulators globally continue to pressure the economics of Apple’s ecosystem.
Italy: $115M antitrust fine tied to App Tracking Transparency
Italy’s AGCM fined Apple €98.6 million (~$115 million) over alleged abuse of dominance related to App Store practices and how App Tracking Transparency (ATT) impacts third‑party developers, according to Reuters. Apple said it disagrees and plans to appeal. [18]
Brazil: settlement requires third‑party app stores and alternative payments (within 105 days)
Reuters also reported Apple reached an agreement with Brazil’s antitrust regulator (CADE) that requires Apple to allow third‑party app stores and alternative payment processing on iOS in Brazil, with implementation within 105 days and potential fines for non‑compliance. [19]
EU DMA pressure: developers urge tougher action on fee practices
In Europe, developers and groups have continued to push regulators to challenge Apple’s revised fee structures under the Digital Markets Act, according to Reuters reporting on industry reactions and complaints. [20]
UK: Apple seeks to appeal a £1.5bn App Store overcharge ruling
In the UK, Apple is attempting to appeal a ruling tied to App Store commissions that could have significant financial and model implications, with the case framed as potentially worth £1.5 billion in consumer overcharges, according to The Guardian. [21]
Why this matters to AAPL shareholders: even when the iPhone cycle is strong, sustained regulatory pressure can create a ceiling on multiple expansion—particularly if policymakers target App Store “take rates,” steering rules, or ad‑tracking economics.
Earnings and next catalysts: what matters before the next big Apple reset
Next earnings date watch
Apple has not confirmed the exact date in all listings, but Nasdaq’s earnings calendar currently points to an estimated January 29, 2026 report date. [22]
Macro catalysts that can move AAPL alongside the whole tape
Because Apple is so index‑heavy, macro events often impact AAPL even without Apple-specific news. Reuters flagged several market catalysts into year‑end and early January, including Federal Reserve minutes and ongoing attention to the Fed path after recent rate cuts (to 3.50%–3.75%). [23]
What investors should know for the rest of today’s session (and the next one)
The New York market is open right now (12:36 p.m. ET), so this is less about “prep for the next open” and more about managing year‑end dynamics that can distort price signals. [24]
With roughly 3 hours and 24 minutes left until the 4:00 p.m. ET close, here’s the practical setup for AAPL watchers:
- Liquidity is thinner than normal: holiday trading can amplify small headlines (upgrades, legal dockets, China data revisions). Reuters explicitly described today’s market as “thin post‑Christmas trading.” [25]
- Watch the “China tape”: today’s positive CAICT data is a tailwind, but China narratives can reverse quickly—keep an eye on follow‑through reporting and any supplier checks. [26]
- Regulatory headlines can land anytime: Italy, Brazil, the EU, and the UK all represent active fronts where “one paragraph” of news can move sentiment. [27]
- Analyst targets are supportive—but not uniform: the bull case is loud ($350), but the market will still demand execution on AI and services to justify a premium multiple. [28]
- Weekend gap risk: because today is Friday, the next regular session is Monday—meaning two days for unexpected regulatory/legal headlines to surface.
Bottom line: AAPL’s “now” is calm, but the 2026 debate is heating up
At midday on Dec. 26, Apple stock is behaving like what it is: a mega‑cap “core holding” trading in a year‑end, low‑volume market—slightly higher, headline‑sensitive, and tethered to both the iPhone cycle and broader AI sentiment. [29]
The near‑term positives (China shipment rebound signals; Apple Watch import-ban relief) are real. [30]
But so are the longer‑duration questions: regulation of App Store economics across multiple jurisdictions, and whether Apple’s AI roadmap can translate into measurable revenue and margin upside rather than just feature parity. [31]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.barrons.com, 8. www.barrons.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.investors.com, 14. www.gurufocus.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.gurufocus.com, 17. www.marketwatch.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.theguardian.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.gurufocus.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com
