Lemonade Stock (LMND) Slides After a Huge 2025 Run: Live Price, Latest News, Guidance, Analyst Targets, and What to Watch Next

New York time check: It’s Dec. 26, 2025, 1:02 p.m. ET in New York.

With U.S. stocks trading in the low-liquidity stretch between Christmas and New Year’s, Lemonade, Inc. (NYSE: LMND) is seeing a sharp mid-day move. LMND is trading around $75.81, down roughly 5% on the session, after ranging from about $73.95 to $80.42.

This kind of swing is not unusual for Lemonade: it’s a high-volatility, high-short-interest insurtech name that can move fast when sentiment flips, liquidity thins, or traders reposition into year-end.

Is the stock market open right now?

Yes. At 1:02 p.m. ET, U.S. equity markets are in regular trading hours, and the NYSE is open today (Friday, Dec. 26). The NYSE holiday calendar shows Christmas Day (Dec. 25) as closed, and Christmas Eve (Dec. 24) as an early close, but not Dec. 26. ^[1]

Today’s market backdrop: “Santa Claus rally” season, but choppy tape

December 26 is historically associated with seasonal strength (part of the “Santa Claus rally” window), but history doesn’t trade your portfolio—today’s tape is mixed and thin. MarketWatch notes December 26 has historically been one of the S&P 500’s most consistently positive days, citing data from Bespoke Investment Group, while also flagging that seasonal patterns aren’t guarantees. ^[2]

Midday Friday, broad-market ETFs are only slightly lower—but the small-cap complex is weaker, which often matters for higher-beta names like LMND:

SPY (S&P 500) is near-flat/slightly down.
QQQ (Nasdaq-100) is roughly flat.
IWM (Russell 2000) is down more noticeably.

That “big-tech steady / small-caps wobbly” mix is a classic recipe for extra turbulence in richly valued, story-driven stocks.

Why Lemonade stock is down today: what the headlines (and the numbers) suggest

As of this writing, there’s no single blockbuster, company-issued headline on Dec. 26 driving the move. Instead, today’s drop looks like a combination of:

1) Post-holiday liquidity + profit-taking after a massive year
LMND has been one of the market’s more dramatic rebound stories in 2025. Yahoo Finance shows LMND is up roughly ~105% year-to-date as of Dec. 26, 2025 (benchmarking against the S&P 500). ^[3]
When a stock doubles in a year, 5–8% air pockets can happen on… basically no news at all.

2) Insider-selling headlines can spook a jittery tape
A MarketBeat “instant alert” item circulating today highlights insider sales/filings in recent weeks (routine in many public companies, but still a sentiment trigger for some traders). ^[4]

3) High short interest amplifies moves in both directions
MarketBeat reports ~13.16 million shares sold short (mid-December), roughly ~20% of float, with about ~5.3 days to cover. ^[5]
That short interest can act like a spring: it can fuel squeezes on good news, but it can also intensify drawdowns when momentum cools.

The fundamentals that bulls keep pointing to: Q3 2025 was a step forward

Lemonade’s most recent official quarterly package (Q3 2025) is a big reason investors have stayed engaged with the story.

From Lemonade’s Q3 2025 Shareholder Letter:

In Force Premium (IFP): $1.16B, up 30% YoY ^[6]
Customers: 2.87M, up 24% YoY ^[7]
Revenue: $194.5M, up 42% YoY ^[8]
Gross loss ratio: 62%, an 11-point improvement YoY (company calls it best-ever) ^[9]
Net loss: ($37.5M) / ($0.51) per share, improved from ($0.95) a year earlier ^[10]
Adjusted EBITDA loss: ($25.6M), improved from ($49.0M) YoY ^[11]
Cash, cash equivalents, and investments: ~$1.06B as of Sept. 30, 2025 ^[12]

That combination—fast growth + sharply improving underwriting metrics—is the cocktail that keeps the bull thesis alive, even when the stock is volatile.

Guidance: what Lemonade itself is forecasting (not Wall Street guesswork)

In the same shareholder letter, Lemonade published Q4 and full-year 2025 guidance and reiterated a 2026 profitability milestone:

Full-year 2025 guidance (company):

Revenue:$727M–$732M
Adjusted EBITDA loss:($130M)–($127M)
IFP:$1.218B–$1.223B ^[13]

Outlook milestones (company):

Expects ~30% IFP growth in FY 2026
Targets positive Adjusted EBITDA for the full quarter in Q4 2026 ^[14]

For investors, this is the core question: Can Lemonade keep loss ratios improving while scaling fast enough to reach that Q4 2026 profitability target—without sacrificing growth or needing capital?

Reinsurance strategy: a margin tailwind, but also a “risk dial”

One of the more technical (but crucial) themes is Lemonade’s reinsurance shift—basically, how much risk it keeps versus hands off to reinsurers.

In June 2025, Lemonade announced it would reduce the ceded proportion of its quota share reinsurance from ~55% to ~20%, effective July 1, citing improved diversification and underwriting trajectory. ^[15]

President and cofounder Shai Wininger framed it as a way to reduce reinsurance overhead and improve margins while staying capital-light. ^[16]

In the Q3 letter, Lemonade also links part of revenue growth to a reduced premium cession rate following renewal. ^[17]

Why investors care:

Keeping more premium can boost revenue and gross profit dollars.
Keeping more risk can increase earnings volatility if catastrophe losses spike or pricing is off.

This is the insurtech version of turning the difficulty setting up or down.

Analyst and forecast snapshot: targets are all over the map

The notable recent call: Morgan Stanley turns less bearish

On Dec. 16, 2025, Investing.com reported that Morgan Stanley upgraded Lemonade to Equalweight and set an $85 price target, citing accelerating in-force premium growth, loss ratio improvements, and a path to EBITDA profitability by Q4 2026, plus the company’s cash position. ^[18]

That’s meaningful because it signals at least one large institution is more comfortable with the execution trajectory than earlier in 2025.

The consensus picture: plenty of skepticism remains

On TradingView, the average analyst price target shown is around $61.75, with a wide range from $33 to $85. ^[19]

When a stock is trading above many published targets (as LMND is today), you often get one of two outcomes:

The company executes and targets rise over time, or
The stock “catches down” as optimism fades or growth slows.

Bull case vs. bear case: the debate in plain English

The bullish narrative (why some think LMND can keep running):

Lemonade’s 2025 performance has been powered by improving underwriting metrics and growth, with bulls arguing its AI-driven operating model can scale into profitability over time. A Motley Fool piece this month leans into the longer-term upside argument. ^[20]

The bearish narrative (why skeptics still bet against it):

Bears argue profitability may prove elusive at scale, pointing to customer acquisition costs and the difficulty of sustaining underwriting discipline while growing fast. A recent Seeking Alpha analysis is explicitly skeptical about margin durability. ^[21]

Both camps agree on one thing: execution matters more than vibes. For an insurance business, “AI” is not a magic spell; it has to show up in loss ratios, expenses, retention, and pricing accuracy.

Key things investors typically watch next for LMND

1) Next earnings date (and what the market will demand)

Zacks lists LMND’s next earnings release as expected Feb. 24, 2026 (estimate based on the historical cadence). ^[22]

Given the stock’s big run, the market is likely to focus on:

Whether loss ratio gains hold up
Whether IFP growth stays near the company’s long-term ambition
Whether the company continues trending toward positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2026 ^[23]

2) Car insurance expansion = growth engine + risk engine

Lemonade has been leaning into auto as a major growth vector. For example, the company’s 2025 state rollout included a car insurance launch in Indiana, calling it part of a broader rollout plan. ^[24]

Auto is huge total addressable market—but it’s also brutally competitive and sensitive to claims inflation.

3) Corporate governance and AI credibility

Lemonade added Prashant Ratanchandani (Meta’s VP of AI Products) to its board in October 2025—an attention-getting move given Lemonade’s “AI-native insurer” positioning. ^[25]

If you’re reading this after the close: what to know before the next session

Even though the market is open right now (1:02 p.m. ET), many people will catch up on this story later today or over the weekend. Here’s the practical checklist for LMND into the next regular session (Monday, Dec. 29):

Check whether today’s selloff held into the close or reversed late (holiday-week trading can whipsaw).
Scan SEC filings / Form 4 activity and any company updates posted on Lemonade’s investor relations site. ^[26]
Watch index futures / risk sentiment, especially small caps (LMND often trades like a “risk-on/risk-off” proxy).
Know the calendar: U.S. markets were closed Christmas Day and had early close Christmas Eve—so some flows and hedges can get “reset” into the final week of the year. ^[27]
Mentally separate “price action” from “business trajectory.” LMND can drop 5–10% in a session without any change in the underlying multi-quarter story—especially with elevated short interest. ^[28]

Bottom line

Lemonade stock is down sharply midday Dec. 26, but the bigger narrative remains the same: investors are pricing a company that is still unprofitable today, yet showing rapid growth and improving underwriting metrics, with management guiding toward positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2026. ^[29]

The stock’s 2025 surge means expectations are high—and that’s why sessions like today can happen. In late-December trading, liquidity is thinner, emotions are louder, and stories get stress-tested.