New York — Friday, December 26, 2025 (1:27 p.m. ET)
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is trading higher in mid-day action as Wall Street digests a headline-grabbing AI inference agreement with Groq—an unusual “license + talent” structure that underscores how aggressively Nvidia is defending its position beyond AI training and into the next battlefield: inference at scale. [1]
As of the latest available quote during the U.S. trading session, NVDA is around $191.47, up about 1.5% on the day, after opening near $189.89 and trading roughly between $189.50 and $192.28.
The market backdrop: post-holiday tape, light macro, stock-specific headlines driving moves
Today’s action is unfolding in thin post-holiday trading—the kind of session where single-stock news can have an outsized impact because liquidity and participation are typically lighter than usual. [2]
Broader benchmarks look close to flat-to-mixed: the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is fractionally lower while the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) is slightly higher, suggesting investors are still leaning toward mega-cap tech leadership into year-end. Semiconductor ETFs are mixed-to-firmer, with SMH up more clearly than SOXX at the time of the quote.
What’s moving Nvidia stock today: the Groq inference licensing agreement (and why it matters)
The dominant Nvidia headline is a non-exclusive inference technology licensing agreement with Groq, paired with a migration of key Groq leaders and staff to Nvidia. In Groq’s own announcement, the company said it entered a non-exclusive license with Nvidia for Groq’s inference technology, and that Groq founder Jonathan Ross, Groq president Sunny Madra, and other team members will join Nvidia to help advance and scale the licensed technology. [3]
That structure is the tell.
Nvidia already dominates AI training in many data center deployments. The risk (and opportunity) increasingly sits in inference—the “serve the model” phase, where efficiency, latency, and cost per query become the obsession. Analysts quoted by MarketWatch described the agreement as a strategic move to strengthen Nvidia’s inference position alongside its training leadership, with Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon among those characterizing the deal as strategic in nature. [4]
The “$20 billion” confusion: not a straightforward acquisition, but the market treated it like a major strategic move
Early chatter around the transaction included reports of a ~$20 billion number and speculation about an outright acquisition. But multiple reports emphasized that Groq remains independent and that the arrangement is framed as licensing plus a personnel shift—more “creative deal-making” than classic M&A. [5]
Why investors care: inference is where the next margin war may happen. Nvidia’s GPUs are the default, but competitors—especially custom accelerators and alternative architectures—are trying to carve out inference-specific turf. Investor’s Business Daily noted Wall Street’s view that Nvidia is responding to rising competition from custom AI chips and inference-focused challengers. [6]
The second big Nvidia overhang: China policy shifts for H200 exports (and political scrutiny)
While the Groq story is driving today’s tape, Nvidia’s longer-running geopolitical variable has also moved in recent weeks.
Reuters reported that U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. will allow Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to be shipped to approved customers in China, with a 25% fee applied under the policy framework, while more advanced Blackwell chips remain restricted. [7]
That’s not just a headline—it’s potentially a near-term revenue and supply-chain catalyst, and it’s now pulling political attention:
- Reuters also reported that Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Gregory Meeks urged the U.S. Commerce Department to disclose export license reviews and approvals related to Nvidia H200 shipments to China, citing national security concerns. [8]
- In the same Reuters reporting thread, Nvidia was described as planning shipments of 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips to China by mid-February 2026 using existing inventory, subject to approvals and process. [9]
- Reuters separately reported Nvidia has considered increasing H200 chip output amid robust China demand following the policy shift. [10]
Bottom line: the China/H200 story is now a two-front issue—commercial upside mixed with elevated regulatory and political scrutiny. That combination can create abrupt sentiment swings in NVDA even when fundamentals remain strong.
Fundamentals check: Nvidia’s latest reported results and guidance are still the spine of the bull case
The market may trade headlines day-to-day, but Nvidia’s last reported quarter remains a big anchor for valuation narratives.
In Nvidia’s third quarter of fiscal 2026 release (reported Nov. 19, 2025), the company posted revenue of $57.006 billion (up 62% year over year), and guided for fourth quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $65.0 billion ±2%. [11]
That same release also highlighted the scale of Nvidia’s capital return engine: during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, Nvidia returned $37.0 billion to shareholders via repurchases and dividends, and ended the quarter with $62.2 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization. [12]
And yes—today is also Nvidia’s dividend payment date for the quarter (a symbolic footnote for most growth investors, but a reminder of shareholder-return capacity). [13]
Wall Street forecasts and price targets: bullish consensus, but with a wide dispersion
Analyst sentiment remains broadly constructive, but it’s not monolithic—and the range of targets tells you the market is still debating how long the AI supercycle can compound at today’s pace.
- Investopedia cited a mean price target around $254 versus a share price around $191 at the time of its report. [14]
- TipRanks reported an average price target of about $263.58, with a “Strong Buy” style consensus based on its compiled analyst inputs. [15]
- Multiple firms have reiterated bullish ratings in recent notes, with targets around $275 (Baird, BofA), while Tigress has been cited as pushing a higher target (e.g., $350) in some roundups of analyst actions following recent developments. [16]
On the more nuanced side, commentary around the Groq transaction included skepticism about the sheer price tag implied by reports—even from bulls. A Yahoo Finance breakdown cited Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon pointing out that a large price would look expensive for a non-exclusive licensing structure, even while giving Nvidia the benefit of the doubt strategically. [17]
How to read this as an investor: the Street is still mostly saying “buy,” but the debate has shifted from whether AI matters to how Nvidia sustains pricing power and moat as inference, custom silicon, and “rent vs. buy compute” models evolve.
What investors should watch next: catalysts into early 2026
Even after today’s Groq headline, Nvidia has a stacked catalyst calendar that can move NVDA quickly—up or down—depending on messaging and expectations.
CES 2026: Jensen Huang events in early January
Investor’s Business Daily flagged Nvidia heading into CES 2026 as a key near-term narrative moment, with CEO Jensen Huang expected to discuss roadmap and outlook in early January. [18]
Official listings show Nvidia events at CES, including a press conference with Jensen Huang on Monday, January 5 in Las Vegas (with media registration requirements). [19]
Next earnings: February 25, 2026 (after market)
Nvidia’s investor relations events calendar lists FY26 Q4 financial results on February 25, 2026. [20]
Yahoo Finance’s earnings calendar also shows February 25, 2026 (4 p.m. EST) for NVDA. [21]
GTC 2026: March 16–19, 2026
Nvidia’s GTC page lists GTC 2026 in San Jose, March 16–19, 2026—often a major platform moment for product roadmaps, platform strategy, and ecosystem expansion. [22]
Longer roadmap: Rubin CPX and beyond
For longer-horizon investors, Nvidia has already outlined pieces of its next-gen platform roadmap publicly. For example, Nvidia announced Rubin CPX and said it is expected to be available at the end of 2026, reinforcing that the company is trying to keep the cadence of “new architecture, new reason to upgrade” on a predictable rhythm. [23]
Risks that still matter (even on a green day)
Nvidia bulls have fundamentals, momentum, and ecosystem gravity. But a real risk section isn’t optional—especially for a stock that can move sharply on policy.
Key risk threads investors are watching:
- Export controls and political risk: The H200-to-China policy shift is meaningful, but scrutiny is rising fast and approvals can become a volatility engine. [24]
- Competition in inference: The Groq deal is a reminder that inference is becoming strategically central—and contested by alternative accelerators and custom silicon. [25]
- Valuation sensitivity: When a stock is priced for excellence, “great” can still disappoint. Wide dispersion in analyst targets is one signal that investors disagree on what “normal” looks like two years out. [26]
- Regulatory optics around big-tech dealmaking: Nvidia also has other regulatory headlines floating around it (for example, Reuters reported U.S. antitrust agencies cleared Nvidia’s investment in Intel), but regulators globally continue to watch big tech closely. [27]
Trading note for today: the U.S. market is open right now—what to monitor into the close
Because it’s currently 1:27 p.m. ET in New York, the NYSE and Nasdaq session is still in progress.
In the remaining hours, NVDA traders and longer-term investors typically watch a few practical tells:
- Headline risk: any late clarifications on the Groq structure, economics, or integration timeline can move the tape quickly. [28]
- China/H200 follow-through: additional reporting or policy commentary can whip sentiment given the political scrutiny now attached to license approvals. [29]
- Market tone into year-end: with post-holiday trading conditions, broader index drift can amplify single-stock moves—especially in mega-cap tech. [30]
If you’re reading this after the 4 p.m. ET close, treat after-hours headlines seriously—especially with deal-related stories—then look ahead to the next regular session (Monday) for confirmation of whether institutional buyers supported the move or whether it was mostly thin-liquidity reaction.
References
1. groq.com, 2. www.barrons.com, 3. groq.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.investors.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. investor.nvidia.com, 12. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 13. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. finance.yahoo.com, 18. www.investors.com, 19. www.ces.tech, 20. investor.nvidia.com, 21. finance.yahoo.com, 22. www.nvidia.com, 23. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. groq.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.barrons.com
