New York — 5:04 p.m. ET, Friday, December 26, 2025.
Silver is closing out the week with a statement move. After breaking through multiple psychological levels in thin, year-end trading, spot silver (XAG/USD) pushed into new all-time highs on Friday, extending a powerful 2025 run that has turned the “white metal” into one of the standout performers across global markets. [1]
By late afternoon in New York, Kitco was quoting spot silver around $79.14/oz (bid) and $79.26/oz (ask), with a day’s range roughly $71.89 to $79.33—a swing that underscores just how volatile the market has become into year-end. [2]
At the same time, the broader U.S. stock market backdrop remains “risk-on, but cautious”: Wall Street ended slightly lower in quiet post-Christmas trading, while major indexes remain close to record highs—an important context for investors deciding whether silver’s surge is a momentum trade, a macro hedge, or both. [3]
Silver price now: what the market is showing late Friday
Silver’s rally wasn’t just a brief spike—it built through the session and kept grinding higher.
- Reuters reported spot silver set a record high at $78.53/oz on Friday, with the broader precious metals complex also printing major highs (gold and platinum reaching records as well). [4]
- Another Reuters update earlier in the U.S. afternoon put spot silver at about $77.30/oz around 1:53 p.m. ET, after touching $77.40—illustrating how quickly prices accelerated into the close. [5]
- Market data aggregators showed similarly elevated levels: Investing.com listed XAG/USD around $79.187, and also flagged a daily range that extended up toward $79.308. [6]
Price differences across feeds are normal (spot references, timing, and venue assumptions vary), but the direction is unambiguous: silver is in price-discovery mode, and small shifts in liquidity are translating into outsized moves.
Why silver is surging: the forces behind the breakout
Silver’s late-2025 rally is being driven by a rare alignment of macro, market-structure, and fundamental catalysts—many of which also explain why the move has been so volatile.
1) Fed easing expectations are boosting non-yielding assets
The precious-metals complex is responding to the idea that U.S. interest rates have peaked and that the next big policy step could be downward.
Reuters notes markets are anticipating two rate cuts in 2026, and highlighted that expectations for further Fed easing are helping drive precious-metals volatility, especially in thin markets. [7]
That matters because silver, like gold, doesn’t pay interest—so it tends to benefit when real yields fall or when investors expect they will.
2) The U.S. dollar has been a tailwind
A softer dollar typically supports dollar-priced commodities by making them cheaper for non-U.S. buyers.
Reuters reported the U.S. dollar index was on track for a weekly decline, boosting the appeal of precious metals for overseas investors. [8]
Meanwhile, market quotes also showed the Dollar Index around 97.71 in the same late-week window. [9]
3) Tight supply, deficits, and “critical mineral” framing
Silver’s bullish narrative isn’t only macro. It’s also about whether the market can source enough metal to meet demand—particularly for industrial uses.
Reuters explicitly pointed to supply deficits and noted silver’s designation as a U.S. critical mineral as part of the underlying story behind the surge. [10]
The Silver Institute, working with Metals Focus, also emphasizes the importance of tracking mine supply, above-ground stocks, investment flows, and demand trends through its annual supply/demand work—exactly the factors investors are now focusing on day-to-day. [11]
4) Industrial demand is no longer a side story
Silver is not just a “safe haven” metal. It’s also an industrial input—especially tied to electrification themes that markets continue to price aggressively.
ING Research highlighted that silver’s 2025 strength has been supported by persistent supply deficit plus strong industrial demand, particularly from solar, along with EVs and electronics. [12]
Aberdeen Investments also pointed to electronics demand and China’s solar manufacturing scale as part of the longer-term demand setup. [13]
This dual identity—monetary hedge + industrial metal—is one reason silver can outperform gold during certain macro regimes.
5) Thin, year-end liquidity is amplifying the move
Several major sources describe a market where positioning and liquidity are magnifying price action.
Reuters quoted Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, warning about volatility in thin markets—while still arguing the trend is strong and that “$80 in silver is within reach by year-end.” [14]
That’s consistent with the broader market context: as Reuters also noted on the equity side, light trading volumes into year-end can exaggerate asset moves. [15]
The stock market backdrop: quiet close, near-record levels, and a Fed-focused week ahead
Even though silver is stealing the spotlight, it’s moving inside a broader market regime that matters for cross-asset investors.
On Friday, U.S. stocks closed slightly lower in quiet post-holiday trading:
- S&P 500: 6,929.94 (down 0.1% or less)
- Dow: 48,710.97 (down 0.1% or less)
- Nasdaq: 23,593.10 (down about 0.1%) [16]
AP also noted trading volume was extremely light, and the 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.13%. [17]
Looking into next week, Reuters reported the S&P 500 is about 1% away from the 7,000 milestone, and that investors are watching for potential year-end momentum—while also bracing for volatility from portfolio adjustments and thin volumes. [18]
The key macro “event risk” many desks are circling: minutes from the Fed’s December meeting, due Tuesday, which could influence rate expectations (and therefore the dollar, yields, and metals). [19]
Is the stock exchange closed right now? Yes — here’s what to know before the next session
Because it’s 5:04 p.m. ET in New York, the NYSE core session (9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET) is closed. [20]
However, investors should keep three practical points in mind:
- After-hours equity trading still exists (for many brokers)
NYSE documentation lists a “late trading session” extending beyond the close (commonly up to 8:00 p.m. ET for many U.S. venues). Liquidity can be thin, spreads wider, and price gaps more common. [21] - Silver itself can keep trading via futures
Silver’s headline price is heavily influenced by futures markets. CME lists silver futures (SI) trading hours as Sunday–Friday, 6:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. ET, with a daily 60-minute break. [22] - Weekend risk and Monday gaps are real
With geopolitics and policy narratives already part of the metals story, markets can “reprice” quickly when liquidity returns—especially after a record-setting move like this.
Next regular U.S. equity session: Monday, December 29, 2025.
What to watch before Monday’s open: the short checklist silver traders are using
Silver is being driven by rates, the dollar, and risk sentiment—so the most useful “watch list” is cross-asset.
Macro calendar: Monday’s U.S. data slate
The New York Fed’s economic indicators calendar shows several releases scheduled for Monday, Dec. 29 (all Eastern Time), including:
- Advance International Trade in Goods (8:30 a.m.)
- NAR Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 a.m.)
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 a.m.) [23]
None of these are guaranteed “silver movers,” but in a thin market, surprises can shift yields and the dollar—especially if they change expectations around growth and policy.
The bigger catalyst: Fed minutes
Reuters flagged that Fed minutes are due Tuesday, and that markets remain intensely focused on “how many cuts” come next year—exactly the debate that influences precious metals pricing. [24]
Positioning risk: profit-taking into year-end
Reuters’ Peter Grant explicitly warned there is risk of profit-taking before year-end, even while he stayed constructive on trend. [25]
In practical terms: if silver fails to hold key breakout zones after such a sharp move, dips can be fast.
Forecasts and 2026 outlook: bullish bias, but experts warn volatility stays high
With silver already near $79, the forecasting game is less about whether it can rise and more about how violently it can swing while doing so.
Zaner Metals: “$80 … within reach”
Reuters quoted Peter Grant (Zaner Metals) saying $80 in silver is within reach by year-end, while still acknowledging the risk of profit-taking in thin markets. [26]
CBS News expert panel: watch inflation, real rates, manufacturing, and renewables
CBS News’ recent survey of expert commentary laid out a clear framework for 2026:
- Peter Reagan (Birch Gold Group): higher or persistent inflation tends to support higher silver prices. [27]
- Henry Yoshida (Rocket Dollar): investors should track real interest rates, global manufacturing activity, and renewable-energy expansion; if inflation cools and real yields rise, silver could stabilize or pull back. [28]
- Joshua D. Glawson (Money Metals Exchange): highlighted the role of investment demand (including ETFs) in tightening available supply. [29]
Notably, even bullish experts repeatedly emphasize that silver should be treated as a diversifier, not a short-term “sure thing.” [30]
ING and Aberdeen: structural support, but “fickle” flows can turn the tape
ING argues silver’s foundation is supported by industrial demand + supply deficit, but also expects volatility to remain a defining feature. [31]
Aberdeen adds an important market-structure risk: ETF ownership has become large enough that shifts in investor appetite can move prices sharply, noting ETF holders collectively hold roughly a year’s supply of silver (as cited in its outlook discussion). [32]
What investors should do next: positioning ideas without the hype
Silver’s price action is exciting—but it’s also the kind of market where discipline matters more than narratives.
- If you’re already long, consider whether your position sizing assumes “normal” volatility. Friday’s range wasn’t normal. [33]
- If you’re considering new exposure, decide what you’re actually buying:
- macro hedge (rates/dollar/geopolitics),
- industrial-growth theme (solar/EV/electronics), or
- momentum breakout (price discovery + thin liquidity). [34]
- If you’re using ETFs or miners, remember your drivers can diverge from spot silver because equities bring separate risks (market beta, costs, execution, and liquidity), particularly outside core hours. [35]
Silver is telling the market something important: investors are paying up—aggressively—for both hard-asset protection and industrial scarcity. The next question is whether that bid remains as liquidity returns in the final trading days of the year.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.kitco.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. silverinstitute.org, 12. think.ing.com, 13. www.aberdeeninvestments.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. apnews.com, 17. apnews.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.nyse.com, 21. www.nyse.com, 22. www.cmegroup.com, 23. www.newyorkfed.org, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.cbsnews.com, 28. www.cbsnews.com, 29. www.cbsnews.com, 30. www.cbsnews.com, 31. think.ing.com, 32. www.aberdeeninvestments.com, 33. www.kitco.com, 34. think.ing.com, 35. www.nyse.com
