NEW YORK — As of 5:05 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, U.S. stock exchanges have finished the day’s regular session and are now in the post-close window. [1]
Natural gas, however, is still setting up the next trade. Even after a quiet, low-volume post‑Christmas equity session, the energy tape is delivering plenty for investors to digest: cold‑weather risk is back in forecasts, LNG exports remain structurally important, and the next EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report is scheduled for Monday, December 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET—a timing detail that can reshape pre‑market and midday positioning going into the next full week. [2]
Below is what the latest pricing, news, and expert analysis imply for natural gas and the stock market heading into the next session.
Natural gas price today: where Henry Hub futures stand going into the weekend
CME Group data showed Henry Hub Natural Gas futures (NYMEX) up around 4% in the active contract view on December 26, with pricing around the high-$3/MMBtu area (about $3.92/MMBtu in the displayed contract snapshot). [3]
One important nuance for investors: the natural gas curve has been sensitive to near-term weather and contract roll dynamics. CME’s calendar view has also shown materially different prices across nearby months (reflecting winter risk premia and the market’s constant repricing of “how cold, how long, and where”). [4]
Trading-hours reality check (critical for weekend risk): Henry Hub natural gas futures offer “nearly 24-hour” access during the week, but the core Globex schedule is Sunday–Friday 5:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET (with a daily 60-minute break at 4:00 p.m.)—meaning that after Friday’s cutoff, the next meaningful opportunity to react in futures is typically Sunday evening. [5]
That weekend gap matters for energy equities, because stocks can trade in after-hours, but natural gas futures won’t fully reprice until the next Globex session opens.
What the stock market just did—and why gas traders care anyway
Friday’s U.S. equity session was subdued. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 6,929.94, the Dow fell 20.19 points to 48,710.97, and the Nasdaq dipped 0.1% to 23,593.10, with very light NYSE volume as many institutional investors remained effectively sidelined into year-end. [6]
Even on a sleepy day for broad indexes, natural gas can still matter to stocks because it feeds directly into:
- utility and power-gen cost stacks (gas vs. coal switching),
- E&P cash-flow expectations (especially gas‑weighted producers),
- LNG export margin narratives (especially for exporters and midstream infrastructure),
- and inflation-sensitive expectations when energy volatility spills into broader pricing psychology.
Reuters has highlighted how high natural gas costs can push U.S. power generators toward more coal burn to avoid expensive gas, underscoring that gas prices can change dispatch decisions and potentially impact emissions, regional power prices, and earnings sensitivity for parts of the utility complex. [7]
The three near-term drivers: weather, storage, and LNG
1) Weather: colder signals are back, but the outlook is split
The EIA’s recent “Today in Energy” analysis notes that NOAA’s outlook shifted toward a colder December, with NOAA expecting this December to be about 8% colder than the average of the previous 10 Decembers—a meaningful adjustment in the market’s demand assumptions during peak heating season. [8]
At the same time, industry commentary is not one-directional. The American Gas Association’s latest indicators—drawing on NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center probabilities—point to a moderate to high likelihood of above‑normal temperatures across much of the U.S. into the first week of the new year, with colder leanings focused in specific regions (including parts of New England and the West Coast, per the probability discussion). [9]
Translation for investors: weather volatility, not just “cold,” is the trade. Natural gas often responds less to the average of a season and more to the timing and location of cold relative to:
- pipeline constraints,
- storage draw pace,
- and LNG feedgas demand.
A late-week or weekend model shift can quickly alter front‑month risk premia.
2) Storage: the next EIA report hits Monday at noon ET
The most market-moving domestic dataset for U.S. gas is the EIA storage report, and the next release timing is unusually important.
In the most recently published report (for the week ending December 12, 2025), EIA estimated:
- Working gas in storage:3,579 Bcf
- Weekly change:-167 Bcf
- Vs. year-ago:61 Bcf lower
- Vs. five-year average:32 Bcf higher
- And EIA stated inventories were within the five-year historical range. [10]
The holiday release schedule indicates the next storage report is Monday, December 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET (instead of the usual Thursday 10:30 a.m.). [11]
Why that matters for stocks: A Monday noon data drop can collide with:
- the first high‑conviction flows of the week,
- “turn-of-the-year” portfolio adjustments,
- and hedging behavior in energy equities that react to commodity volatility.
3) LNG exports: structurally supportive—yet margin pressure is a real theme
On the supportive side, the EIA’s Natural Gas Weekly Update (latest available in this holiday window) reported 33 LNG vessels departing U.S. ports between December 11 and December 17, illustrating continued high export throughput. [12]
But the export story is not just about volume—it’s about netbacks.
Reuters has cautioned that soaring U.S. gas prices can squeeze LNG producer margins when international benchmarks soften, noting that the spread between Henry Hub and Europe’s TTF can narrow and challenge export economics under certain conditions. The same Reuters analysis quotes Saul Kavonic (MST Marquee) describing margin normalization as new LNG supply comes online and explaining thresholds where cargo economics can turn unfavorable. [13]
That creates a two-sided equity narrative:
- Bullish: LNG demand and infrastructure utilization support U.S. gas demand and midstream volumes.
- Bearish (or limiting): if Henry Hub rises faster than global prices, LNG “pull” can weaken at the margin, especially for spot-linked cargo decisions.
The global overlay: Europe, Russia, renewables, and the 2030 LNG supply wave
Natural gas is no longer a purely U.S. weather-and-storage market. It’s increasingly tethered to global LNG flows and geopolitics.
Europe’s reliance on U.S. LNG is set to grow
Reuters reported that Energy Aspects analysts expect the U.S. to supply around 70% of Europe’s LNG in 2026–2029, up from 58% so far this year, as the EU plans to ban Russian LNG from 2027 and Russian gas from 2028. Reuters also cited Arne Lohmann Rasmussen (Global Risk Management) and Florence Schmit (Rabobank) discussing increased volatility and storage dynamics as Europe relies more on LNG. [14]
Russia’s LNG ambitions face sanctions headwinds
Separately, Reuters reported that Russia has delayed its LNG output targets because sanctions have disrupted projects and timelines, adding uncertainty to medium-term supply projections. [15]
The medium-term “supply wave” is a core debate
The International Energy Agency’s Gas 2025 outlook frames the coming wave of LNG capacity as a potential market-shaping force that could improve supply security and push prices lower—while forcing producers to adapt strategies. [16]
Reuters Breakingviews goes further, arguing that rapid cost declines and speed of buildout in renewables (solar, wind, batteries) could turn an LNG build cycle into an oversupply risk by around 2030, challenging long-duration LNG investment assumptions. [17]
Equity implication: This is where natural gas moves from “commodity trade” to “multiple compression or expansion” for companies tied to LNG megaproject capex, long-term contracting, and midstream buildouts.
Forecasts and analyst views: where experts see Henry Hub heading
No forecast is perfect in a weather-driven market, but it’s still useful to map the consensus range.
EIA’s baseline: higher near-term, moderating later
S&P Global reported that in EIA’s December Short-Term Energy Outlook context, the agency forecast:
- Henry Hub average $3.56/MMBtu for full-year 2025
- $4.01/MMBtu in 2026
and noted EIA expects rising production to help moderate prices into 2026 in later quarters. [18]
EIA’s own STEO natural gas page also signals the same theme: rising production helps moderate prices next year, while still keeping the market sensitive to demand swings. [19]
Industry indicators: demand and production both elevated
AGA’s indicators cite preliminary market data suggesting demand (including exports) has been strong year-over-year in December and that production remains elevated, reinforcing the idea that the market is balancing two powerful forces: weather-driven demand spikes and a high-output supply base. [20]
Structural demand: data centers + LNG
Rystad Energy founder Jarand Rystad has emphasized that two newer sources of U.S. gas demand—data centers requiring power and new LNG facilities—help explain why Henry Hub is far above last year’s lows, even as longer-run supply remains abundant. [21]
Wall Street research: “incentive price” language is returning
A Bernstein view summarized in financial media said the firm expects U.S. gas markets to regain footing in 2026 and reiterated confidence around a $5 per Mcf long-term incentive concept. (This reflects the recurring idea that prices need to be high enough to justify incremental supply and infrastructure.) [22]
If the stock exchange is closed now: what investors should know before the next session
Because it’s after the 4:00 p.m. ET close for the NYSE/Nasdaq regular session, the practical question becomes: what will matter most before Monday’s open?
1) The Monday noon storage report is the week’s first “hard” catalyst
The EIA storage release is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET on Monday, December 29—a time that can produce a mid‑session volatility burst rather than a premarket repricing. [23]
How to use that: If you’re in natural-gas-linked equities (producers, LNG names, pipelines), be prepared for:
- a volatility pickup late morning into early afternoon,
- and potential sector rotation if the print implies faster or slower winter drawdowns.
2) Weekend weather-model risk can “gap” sentiment
Even with futures closed after Friday afternoon, weather models continue updating. By the time Henry Hub resumes trading Sunday evening (per Globex schedule), the market may re-open with a different “cold premium” embedded. [24]
3) LNG headlines can move gas-adjacent stocks even when gas itself can’t trade
Operational updates at major LNG facilities (maintenance, feedgas shifts, shipping schedules) can influence LNG exporters and some midstream names in after-hours or premarket, especially when the market is thin near year-end. EIA’s weekly data underscores that LNG shipping flows remain heavy into mid‑December. [25]
4) Power-market substitution is a sleeper driver for utilities and coal-linked names
Reuters has described how higher gas prices can tilt generation economics toward coal in certain periods, affecting dispatch, fuel purchasing, and potentially earnings sensitivity across parts of the power complex. [26]
5) Context: equities are thin, so commodity-linked moves can feel “bigger than they are”
With the AP noting holiday-thinned participation, it can take less flow than usual to move energy-linked stocks, ETFs, and options. [27]
Scenarios to watch: bullish, bearish, and “range-bound but violent”
Here’s a practical way investors are framing the next few weeks:
Bullish natural gas scenario
- Cold concentrates in high-demand regions and persists,
- storage withdrawals accelerate beyond expectations,
- LNG feedgas stays strong,
- and the curve reprices higher, especially in nearby months.
(Storage sensitivity remains high given the market’s focus on weekly draws.) [28]
Bearish natural gas scenario
- Milder conditions dominate into early January across large population centers,
- production remains robust,
- and LNG margins become a bigger limiter if global benchmarks stay soft relative to Henry Hub. [29]
Range-bound but volatile
- The market oscillates between weather runs, storage prints, and LNG headlines,
- keeping implied volatility elevated even if the “average” price doesn’t trend cleanly.
(This pattern is consistent with the repeated emphasis—across EIA updates and industry indicators—that December pricing can be highly volatile.) [30]
Bottom line: natural gas is setting the tone for an event-driven start to 2026
At a time when broad equities are drifting on holiday-light volume, natural gas remains one of the more event-driven corners of the market: weather revisions, a Monday-noon storage release, and the push-pull between LNG demand and export margins can all reprice expectations quickly.
For stock investors, the key is not just “is gas up or down?” but what kind of move it is:
- weather shock vs. structural shift,
- short-lived front-month squeeze vs. curve-wide repricing,
- and whether LNG economics amplify or dampen the move.
With major forecasters (including EIA, as reported by S&P Global) still pointing to a higher 2026 Henry Hub average than 2025, but also expecting supply growth to cap extremes, the market’s next leg is likely to be decided—once again—by the weekly cadence of storage and the daily cadence of weather models.
References
1. apnews.com, 2. ir.eia.gov, 3. www.cmegroup.com, 4. www.cmegroup.com, 5. www.cmegroup.com, 6. apnews.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.eia.gov, 9. www.aga.org, 10. ir.eia.gov, 11. ir.eia.gov, 12. www.eia.gov, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.iea.org, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.spglobal.com, 19. www.eia.gov, 20. www.aga.org, 21. www.rystadenergy.com, 22. finance.yahoo.com, 23. ir.eia.gov, 24. www.cmegroup.com, 25. www.eia.gov, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. apnews.com, 28. ir.eia.gov, 29. www.aga.org, 30. www.eia.gov
