NEW YORK — Friday, December 26, 2025 (5:00 p.m. ET). Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) finished a quiet, post‑Christmas session near $198 as investors balanced a strong year‑end backdrop for U.S. equities with renewed scrutiny of Oracle’s AI‑era spending plans and funding strategy. At roughly 5 p.m. ET, ORCL last traded around $197.99, up about 0.26% from the prior close, after moving between $196.13 and $200.29 during the day.
The broader market offered few catalysts: U.S. stocks ended the session essentially flat-to-slightly lower in light volume, with the S&P 500 closing at 6,929.94 and the Nasdaq Composite at 23,593.10 as investors continued to watch the “Santa Claus rally” window into early January. [1]
With New York’s core NYSE session already closed (regular trading runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET), the next meaningful test for Oracle shares will come when liquidity returns after the weekend and year‑end positioning shifts into the final three trading days of 2025. [2]
Why Oracle stock is still a headline name heading into 2026
Oracle’s stock story has become a proxy for a bigger market debate: whether the AI infrastructure buildout is a durable, revenue‑backed investment cycle—or a capital‑intensive race that could pressure margins, cash flow, and credit metrics before profits catch up.
In recent weeks, Reuters has highlighted the market’s focus on three intertwined issues:
- AI capex scale (and the timeline for payback),
- Customer concentration risk tied to OpenAI, and
- Funding and balance‑sheet implications (debt, leases, and alternative financing models). [3]
Those concerns helped drive sharp volatility earlier in December, even as the U.S. market overall has hovered near record levels into year‑end. [4]
The latest Oracle earnings read‑through: guidance missed, capex rose, and investors demanded more clarity
Oracle’s most market-moving recent catalyst was its quarterly update on December 10, when the company forecast sales and profit below analyst expectations and said capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 are expected to be $15 billion higher than the $35 billion figure it discussed in September—implying a much heavier buildout burden than many investors had modeled. [5]
Key data points from that Reuters report include:
- Fiscal Q3 adjusted EPS guidance:$1.64–$1.68 vs. $1.72 estimate (LSEG). [6]
- Revenue growth guidance:16%–18% vs. 19.4% expected growth to $16.87 billion (LSEG). [7]
- Future contracts / RPO metric: Oracle reported $523 billion, up from $455 billion in September, but slightly below the $526 billion estimate (Visible Alpha). [8]
- A one-time $2.7 billion pretax gain from selling its stake in chip designer Ampere Computing boosted profits, complicating how investors interpreted underlying operating trends. [9]
Analysts and industry researchers were blunt about what the market wanted next: a clearer bridge from massive AI capacity spending to durable, high‑margin revenue.
- “The ramp in capex and unclear debt needs are causing uncertainty among investors,” said Melissa Otto, head of research at S&P Global’s Visible Alpha, in the Reuters report. [10]
- Jacob Bourne, an analyst at eMarketer, warned that the revenue miss could “exacerbate concerns” around the OpenAI deal and aggressive AI spend. [11]
Oracle executives, for their part, emphasized that they are exploring structures intended to reduce upfront capex intensity—such as customer‑provided chips and vendor capacity models where Oracle can rent rather than buy infrastructure. [12]
OpenAI exposure and credit anxiety: the debate that won’t go away
A Reuters earnings preview framed Oracle’s relationship with OpenAI as both the accelerant behind its AI infrastructure momentum—and the core reason investors are dissecting its financing strategy so closely. [13]
According to that report:
- Oracle’s $300 billion OpenAI contract raised “revenue exposure concerns,” and the company’s credit default swaps hit record highs amid heavy borrowing. [14]
- Bernstein analyst Mark Moerdler described the OpenAI contract as giving Oracle “unprecedented single customer revenue exposure.” [15]
- Oracle has argued that bookings are coming from a wider set of customers as well, and Reuters noted Oracle touted a $20 billion new deal with Meta Platforms in that same preview. [16]
One line from the Reuters preview captured the spectrum of views on Oracle’s risk profile:
- Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson suggested that if OpenAI failed and the contract went away, Oracle could need to scale back buildout and work down debt, but he did not expect an outright default scenario—while acknowledging the wide dispersion of outcomes in the AI race. [17]
Data center buildout: Michigan “Stargate,” funding questions, and the “delay” headline risk
Oracle’s AI infrastructure ambitions are tangible: billion‑dollar data center projects tied to OpenAI and broader cloud demand.
Michigan project: Oracle says talks continue without Blue Owl
On December 17, Oracle said discussions for an equity deal supporting its Michigan data center project remain on schedule and do not include Blue Owl Capital, after reporting around that relationship helped push the shares down. Reuters described the project as more than 1‑gigawatt in Saline Township, Michigan, part of a broader AI infrastructure push involving Oracle and OpenAI, with construction slated to begin in early 2026. [18]
“Delays” controversy: Oracle denied pushing OpenAI sites to 2028
Two days earlier, December 12, Oracle denied a Bloomberg report suggesting certain OpenAI‑related data centers were slipping to 2028 due to labor and material constraints. An Oracle spokesperson told Reuters: “There have been no delays to any sites required to meet our contractual commitments, and all milestones remain on track.” [19]
That episode matters for investors because the market has become hypersensitive to “real‑world bottlenecks” in the AI infrastructure race—power availability, construction timelines, and supply chain constraints—not just chip capacity.
- Bob O’Donnell, chief analyst at TECHnalysis Research, told Reuters that practical constraints like “construction delays” and “power availability” are becoming bigger factors as investors scrutinize returns on AI spending. [20]
Funding the AI buildout: debt, bonds, and off‑balance‑sheet structures are now part of the ORCL thesis
Oracle’s path to scaling cloud and AI is increasingly intertwined with credit markets.
- Reuters reported in September that Oracle was aiming to raise $18 billion in debt as it ramped spending to meet cloud infrastructure contracts tied to AI demand. [21]
- In November, Reuters noted Oracle had roughly $104 billion in debt outstanding, including $18 billion in bonds, and that it was “spending more than it earns from operations” as it invests heavily in cloud and AI infrastructure. [22]
This is not just an Oracle story. Reuters reported this week that global tech bond issuance hit a record in 2025 amid the AI capex boom, while credit markets have begun to show more caution as leverage and reinvestment needs rise. [23]
Meanwhile, the Financial Times has detailed how some big tech groups—including Oracle—have used special purpose vehicles (SPVs) and similar structures to shift AI data‑center debt off balance sheets, a trend that can reduce headline leverage ratios but may introduce complexity and opacity for investors trying to assess total obligations. [24]
The FT has also tied the AI infrastructure cycle to a broader surge in corporate bond issuance, with investors watching whether the capex wave will translate into earnings fast enough to justify the spending spree. [25]
Wall Street forecasts for ORCL: wide dispersion, but a “Moderate Buy” consensus
Analyst expectations for Oracle remain unusually spread out—reflecting a market that agrees Oracle is strategically relevant in AI infrastructure, while disagreeing on valuation, cash‑flow timing, and risk.
Consensus price targets (aggregation snapshots)
- TradingView lists an analyst price target around $294.16, with estimates ranging from roughly $175 to $400. [26]
- TipRanks shows an average target around $312.34 (with $180 low and $400 high), and a “Moderate Buy” consensus based on recent ratings it tracks. [27]
Notable recent calls and expert takes
- Goldman Sachs analyst Kash Rangan cut Oracle’s price target to $220 from $320 and maintained a Neutral stance, according to summaries published by Yahoo Finance and MarketBeat. [28]
- On the bullish side, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives argued Oracle could rebound sharply in 2026 if it executes on data center targets and converts its massive AI backlog—predicting Oracle “hits $250 per share in 2026” despite negative sentiment, according to Business Insider. [29]
In other words: the bull case is “backlog becomes revenue, scale drives margins.” The bear case is “capex and financing costs arrive before profits, and customer concentration adds risk.”
Where Oracle fits in today’s market tape: thin volume, near-record indexes, and “bubble” nerves in AI
Today’s session was muted across the tape, with traders still in holiday mode—conditions that can mask underlying positioning until the market returns to full liquidity.
Reuters described the post‑Christmas session as light volume and “catching our breath,” quoting Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, who pointed to the early days of the Santa Claus rally period. [30]
But under the surface, AI stocks have become more “show me” than “buy me.” Reuters highlighted how investors have grown more selective about rewarding aggressive AI capital spending, quoting Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide: the market’s earlier positive link between capex and share prices “has changed pretty significantly.” [31]
This shifting tone is particularly relevant to Oracle because its 2026 narrative is, in large part, a bet that AI infrastructure spending will be revenue‑backed and financeable without lasting damage to margins or credit quality.
The market is closed now — what Oracle investors should know before the next session
As of 5:00 p.m. ET in New York, the regular NYSE session is over, and the next full U.S. trading session begins Monday, December 29 at 9:30 a.m. ET. [32]
Here are the most practical, near‑term items to monitor before Monday’s open:
1) Expect thin, headline‑driven price action into year-end
With only a few trading days left in 2025, flows can be distorted by tax‑loss selling, index rebalancing, and “window dressing.” Reuters’ week‑ahead note emphasized that markets are closing the year near records and watching for an upbeat finish. [33]
2) Watch rates, credit spreads, and AI-capex sentiment
Oracle’s equity has been trading with its credit narrative in the background (debt, CDS, bond performance). Reuters and the FT have both underlined that AI capex is increasingly funded through debt markets and structured financing—and that credit investors are paying attention. [34]
3) Monday’s macro calendar can move mega-cap tech at the margin
MarketWatch’s calendar highlights Pending Home Sales (Nov.) scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday, Dec. 29—the kind of release that can subtly shift rate expectations on a low‑liquidity day. [35]
4) Treasury auctions and liquidity conditions matter into year‑end
TreasuryDirect’s “Upcoming Auctions” schedule shows bill auctions around this period (including settlement dates around the turn of the year), which can influence front‑end rates and overall liquidity conditions. [36]
5) Company-specific headlines to watch over the weekend
For Oracle specifically, investors will be parsing any incremental news on:
- Data center timelines and construction milestones (given the market sensitivity to delay headlines). [37]
- Financing structures (equity partners, leasing models, SPVs, additional debt). [38]
- Any signals about the OpenAI relationship and customer diversification—still central to how the Street frames Oracle’s risk/reward. [39]
Bottom line: ORCL is stable today, but the next big move likely comes from execution, not hype
Oracle stock ended today’s holiday session with only a modest move, broadly in line with a market that is near records but not taking big bets in thin trading. [40]
The bigger question hanging over ORCL into 2026 is straightforward: Can Oracle convert a massive AI backlog into recurring revenue and cash flow fast enough to justify a step-change in capex—without making investors (and bond markets) uncomfortable about leverage and concentration risk? Reuters reporting shows that’s exactly where the Street’s attention is focused, and why Oracle’s next chapters will be judged as much by financing and delivery milestones as by quarterly beats or misses. [41]
References
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