New York — Dec. 26, 2025 (9:12 p.m. ET) — Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) is closing out a blockbuster year for large U.S. banks with shares hovering around $907 in late trading, down about 0.4% from the prior close.
With U.S. stock markets now shut until Monday’s open, GS investors head into the final stretch of 2025 with a familiar question: how much of next year’s optimism is already priced in after a powerful run in bank stocks—and what catalysts could still move Goldman meaningfully higher (or lower) in early 2026?
Below is what’s driving the Goldman Sachs stock narrative right now: the year-end “Santa Claus rally” market backdrop, a rebound in dealmaking and equity underwriting, a more favorable regulatory tone for big banks, and a January earnings date that could set the tone for the first quarter.
Where the market stands heading into the final three sessions of 2025
Friday’s post-Christmas session was a classic year-end tape: light volume, few catalysts, and major indices sitting near all-time highs. Reuters reported the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq finished the day only slightly lower, ending a five-session winning streak but still posting weekly gains. [1]
That context matters for Goldman Sachs stock because GS is deeply tied to market activity levels—from trading to underwriting pipelines to advisory sentiment. And seasonality is also in focus: the “Santa Claus rally” period (the last five trading days of the year and first two of the next) is underway, with strategists watching whether equities keep their upward bias into early January. [2]
Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick described Friday as a pause after a strong rally and noted the Santa Claus rally window still has time left to play out. [3]
The biggest bullish driver for GS stock: dealmaking is back
One of the most direct tailwinds for Goldman’s earnings power is the improvement in M&A advisory and equity underwriting conditions.
At a Goldman-hosted investor conference earlier this month, CFO Denis Coleman said 2025 is on track to be the second-biggest year in history for announced M&A and called the outlook for activity heading into 2026 “very encouraging.” [4]
Coleman also highlighted a more constructive environment for the equity underwriting calendar in 2026. [5]
For GS shareholders, the significance is straightforward:
- More deal volume typically means higher advisory fees
- A busier IPO and follow-on calendar supports underwriting fees
- Better capital markets sentiment can lift asset and wealth management
Reuters noted Goldman has benefited from working on large deals and cited LSEG data indicating 2025 has seen a record pace of megadeals (transactions valued at $10B+). [6]
Regulation and capital: why bank investors see a “second tailwind” for Goldman
Beyond the cycle in dealmaking, investors are closely tracking a changing regulatory environment for large banks.
1) A friendlier tone from Washington and regulators
In October, Reuters reported major U.S. bank executives expressed optimism that regulators would soften capital rules compared with prior proposals. Goldman CEO David Solomon told analysts he believed the “regulatory direction of travel is improving” Goldman’s competitive position, and said that if capital buffers were reduced, the firm could redeploy resources into growth areas. [7]
2) Easing leverage rules (with an important caveat)
In late November, Reuters reported the FDIC approved new final rules designed to ease leverage requirements tied to the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio. The FDIC staff memo estimated lower capital requirements for certain bank subsidiaries, though officials said the overarching holding companies remain constrained by other requirements—meaning it’s not automatically a green light for bigger shareholder payouts. [8]
3) Stress tests already opened the door to higher payouts in 2025
In late June and early July, Reuters coverage of the Federal Reserve stress tests emphasized that passing results support dividend increases and buybacks across the sector. In that context, Goldman was cited among banks viewed as “big winners” by some brokerages. [9]
Shortly after those tests, Reuters reported Goldman’s quarterly dividend would rise to $4 from $3. [10]
Taken together, the regulatory narrative remains a meaningful swing factor for GS stock into 2026—especially if investors believe lower capital constraints could support stronger returns, a larger payout envelope, or more balance-sheet flexibility for financing activity.
Goldman’s earnings foundation: what Q3 2025 showed about the franchise
Goldman’s most recent quarterly results help frame what the market is paying for at nearly $900+ per share.
In its third-quarter 2025 report, Goldman said it delivered:
- Net revenues: $15.18B
- Net earnings: $4.10B
- EPS: $12.25
- Annualized ROE: 14.2% [11]
CEO David Solomon said the quarter reflected strength in Goldman’s client franchise in an “improved market environment,” while also emphasizing efficiency and the role of “new AI technologies” in operating more effectively over the long term. [12]
Reuters’ reporting on the Q3 results underscored that Goldman’s trading and markets businesses remained resilient even in a comparatively calmer quarter, including equities trading revenue of $3.74B and FICC revenue of $3.47B. [13]
That mix matters for valuation: Goldman is not a plain-vanilla lender. It tends to perform best when capital markets are healthy, trading volumes are solid, and deal activity is accelerating—precisely the environment executives say they’re seeing as 2026 approaches.
Strategic moves investors are watching: AI and the hunt for “next wave” deal flow
Goldman isn’t just riding the cycle; it’s also reshaping coverage to align with where it expects deal volume to concentrate.
In mid-December, Reuters reported Goldman is restructuring its influential technology, media and telecom (TMT) investment banking group to focus more on digital infrastructure and AI-driven deal opportunities, creating two new teams and leadership roles. [14]
That internal reorganization is notable for GS stock investors because it signals continued emphasis on sectors with:
- Large financing needs (data centers, infrastructure buildouts)
- M&A complexity (consolidation, carve-outs, cross-border)
- Equity issuance potential (IPOs and secondaries)
On the cost and productivity side, Reuters separately reported Goldman circulated an internal memo in October describing an AI-driven initiative dubbed “OneGS 3.0,” alongside potential job cuts and a hiring slowdown through year-end. The memo was signed by Solomon, President John Waldron, and CFO Denis Coleman. [15]
GS stock forecasts: price targets suggest Wall Street is more cautious after the run
After a year in which Goldman shares have surged more than 50% (depending on the measurement date), some forecast aggregates show analysts’ average price targets sitting below the current trading level—a sign that optimism may be getting harder to extend without fresh upside catalysts. [16]
For example:
- TipRanks shows an average 12-month price target of $841, with a high forecast of $971 and a low forecast of $750, and a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating. [17]
- MarketBeat lists an average price target around $792.67, with a wide range of analyst targets and an implied downside from recent prices. [18]
What to take from this: GS stock may need continued “proof”—in the form of sustained deal activity, durable trading performance, or clearer regulatory relief—to justify further multiple expansion after a powerful rerating in 2025.
What investors should know before the next session
The exchange is closed now—here’s when it reopens
NYSE core trading runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, and with the calendar moving into the final three sessions of 2025, investors should expect continued thin liquidity and potentially exaggerated moves in financials on headlines. [19]
Key things to watch when markets reopen Monday (Dec. 29)
1) Rates and risk sentiment
Earlier this month, Reuters reported stocks jumped after the Fed cut interest rates, with investors parsing the path of future cuts and the Fed’s signals. Shifts in yields and risk appetite can quickly change the tone for capital markets activity—an important driver for Goldman. [20]
2) Dealmaking headlines (M&A and IPO calendar)
Goldman’s own CFO has pointed to strong visibility into M&A and equity underwriting heading into 2026. Any new megadeals, sponsor activity, or IPO filings can reinforce the “cycle is back” thesis. [21]
3) Regulatory developments
Investors should keep a close eye on capital and leverage-rule updates. Changes can influence the sector’s payout capacity and balance-sheet flexibility, even if some rules come with constraints on immediate shareholder distributions. [22]
4) The next big GS catalyst: January earnings
Goldman has formally scheduled its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release for Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026 (results around 7:30 a.m. ET, followed by a 9:30 a.m. ET call). [23]
5) Holiday and year-end calendar quirks
NYSE has published its trading hours and holiday calendar; investors should also note the New Year’s holiday schedule (markets closed on Jan. 1, 2026) and other holiday-related adjustments. [24]
Risks to keep on the radar for Goldman Sachs stock
Even with strong tailwinds, several risks could matter disproportionately for GS given its business mix:
- A “calmer markets” regime: trading revenue can normalize if volatility and client repositioning fade, even if investment banking improves. [25]
- Regulatory optimism getting priced too early: leverage and capital easing can help sentiment, but it doesn’t always translate immediately into higher payouts or higher ROE. [26]
- Execution on efficiency and AI initiatives: Goldman has highlighted AI-driven productivity goals and organizational changes; execution risk is real in any large operating model shift. [27]
- Reputation and compliance headlines: even smaller regulatory matters can become headline risk for large financials. [28]
Bottom line: GS stock enters 2026 with catalysts—but expectations are higher too
Goldman Sachs stock is heading into the final three sessions of 2025 with multiple supportive narratives aligned at once: a year-end equity market that’s still buoyant, a visible rebound in M&A and equity underwriting, and a regulatory backdrop that bank executives argue is turning more favorable.
But with GS trading around the low-$900s and consensus price-target aggregates clustering below that level, the next leg up may depend less on the “theme” and more on the “numbers”—particularly what Goldman delivers on Jan. 15 and whether deal momentum remains durable into the first quarter.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.goldmansachs.com, 12. www.goldmansachs.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.nyse.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.goldmansachs.com, 24. www.nyse.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com
