New York — As of 1:11 a.m. ET on Saturday, December 27, 2025, U.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend, leaving investors with a familiar end‑of‑year setup: thin liquidity, headline-driven moves, and a handful of big 2026 narratives battling for control of “what matters” in semiconductors.
For ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML)—the Dutch company whose lithography machines sit at the choke point of advanced chipmaking—the debate is getting sharper as 2025 ends: AI-driven demand remains strong, but geopolitics (China export limits, rare earth supply, and potential tariff costs) is increasingly dictating the cadence of orders and the confidence of customers planning multiyear fab builds. [1]
Below is the current market snapshot, the most important recent ASML news, what major analysts and experts are focusing on, and the key items to know before the next trading session.
ASML stock price snapshot heading into the weekend
In the latest U.S. trading data available, ASML’s ADR last traded around $1,072.75, up about 0.6% versus the prior close, with trading activity showing an intraday range roughly between $1,060 and $1,076.
After the closing bell, MarketWatch showed ASML around $1,074 in after-hours trading (delayed quote), as of the evening of Friday, Dec. 26 in New York. [2]
Meanwhile, on ASML’s Amsterdam listing (ASML.AS), the most recent close visible in the historical feed was €899.00 on Dec. 24, 2025, reflecting European holiday scheduling around Christmas. [3]
The broader market backdrop: strong 2025 gains, but year‑end trading can get weird
ASML doesn’t trade in a vacuum. Going into the last few sessions of the year, U.S. equities have been hovering near record levels—Reuters noted the S&P 500 was about 1% from 7,000, with investors watching the Federal Reserve and policy signals closely. [4]
Friday’s post‑Christmas session was also classic year‑end tape: light volume, few catalysts, and only small index moves. Reuters described it as a quiet session with modest declines, occurring during the so‑called “Santa Claus rally” window that traders love to mythologize. [5]
AP also emphasized the low‑volume dynamic and summarized 2025’s strong year‑to‑date gains across major indexes. [6]
Why this matters for ASML: when liquidity is thin, high‑quality megacaps and “AI infrastructure” proxies can move sharply on relatively small flows—especially if macro headlines hit over a weekend.
What ASML itself has said lately: strong margins, big Q4, and a very explicit China warning
ASML’s most important recent “source of truth” remains its own reporting and guidance.
In its Q3 2025 results (Oct. 15, 2025), ASML reported:
- €7.5B total net sales and 51.6% gross margin
- €5.4B net bookings, including €3.6B EUV bookings
- Q4 2025 sales guidance of €9.2B to €9.8B
- Full‑year 2025 expected sales growth of ~15% with ~52% gross margin
- And a line investors immediately underlined: ASML does not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025 [7]
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet also pointed directly at the split reality driving the ASML debate: strong AI investment momentum on one hand, and an expected significant decline in China customer demand in 2026 on the other. [8]
ASML also disclosed it intends to announce a new share buyback program in January 2026, after noting it does not expect to complete its existing €12B buyback plan within the original 2022–2025 timeframe. [9]
The China question: still large today, expected to shrink tomorrow, and politically sensitive
Few numbers capture ASML’s geopolitical exposure more cleanly than the China mix.
In an Oct. 15, 2025 Reuters report, ASML CFO Roger Dassen addressed allegations of Chinese “stockpiling” and said the expected decline in China sales is not explained by earlier stockpiling—arguing that shipped systems end up deployed in fabs. Reuters also reported that Chinese system orders represented 42% of ASML machine sales in Q3. [10]
That’s the present tense. The future tense is more cautious. In ASML’s Q3 materials, the company stated it expects China customer demand—and therefore China total net sales in 2026—to decline significantly compared with very strong 2024–2025 business levels. [11]
This matters for investors because ASML’s valuation is built on a long runway of demand for leading-edge lithography—yet the timing of orders can swing on export rules, licensing, and customer behavior.
And it isn’t only export licenses. Reuters added another wrinkle: rare earth supply chains. In the same Oct. 15 Reuters piece, Dassen discussed preparedness for disruptions and noted China’s role in processed rare earths and magnets that ASML machines rely on. [12]
Tariffs and “cost pass-through”: a risk factor investors keep repricing
Another big 2026 narrative is whether tariffs or trade frictions raise costs or slow fab investment decisions.
In a July 16, 2025 Reuters report, ASML warned it may not achieve revenue growth in 2026 as customers await clarity on tariffs. Reuters quoted Dassen saying a potential 30% U.S. tariff on European goods could raise the price of a single high‑end machine to €325M from €250M, and said ASML intends to pass costs through—though the process is complicated because parts may cross borders multiple times during assembly and delivery. [13]
The same Reuters report includes useful outside voices investors tend to track:
- Han Dieperink (CIO, Aureus) said he wasn’t worried about the upcoming year, pointing to solid demand. [14]
- Javier Correonero (Morningstar analyst) and Michael Roeg (Degroof Petercam analyst) were also cited discussing customer issues and the supplier impact. [15]
Those aren’t just color quotes—they’re a reminder that ASML’s near‑term order flow can be shaped by customer timing even when long-term demand is intact.
High‑NA EUV: the next technology step is real, but adoption timing is the battleground
If you want the “2026–2028 argument” for ASML in one phrase, it’s this: High‑NA EUV.
Reuters reported in May 2025 that TSMC is still evaluating when to adopt ASML’s High‑NA EUV tools, citing the roughly $400M price tag and the fact that TSMC’s engineers believe they can still extend scaling with existing Low‑NA EUV for certain upcoming nodes. Reuters quoted TSMC executive Kevin Zhang explaining that the company had not found a compelling reason to use High‑NA for A14-related plans at that time. [16]
At the same time, Reuters said Intel plans to use High‑NA in its future 14A process push, and that ASML expects customers to test High‑NA for high‑volume manufacturing readiness through 2026–2027 before broader node decisions. [17]
For ASML investors, this is the nuance:
- High‑NA is a major revenue lever (fewer customers can afford it, but those that can may buy multiple units).
- But it’s also a timing lever (adoption can slide a year or two and still be “fine” technologically—yet markets will reprice the stock in real time).
AI capex is still the demand engine—and analysts are watching bookings like a hawk
The cleanest near-term sentiment indicator for ASML is usually bookings, because bookings translate into backlog and factory loading.
Ahead of ASML’s Q3 report, Reuters described how AI “megadeals” and data center expansion hopes were supporting the chip market rally and strengthening expectations for ASML’s tool demand. Reuters also cited forecasts for bookings and net income using Visible Alpha and LSEG IBES data, and included commentary from analysts about memory and logic customers stepping up 2026+ capacity plans. [18]
Reuters quoted Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero saying management would need to indicate what they’re seeing as sentiment changes, and Degroof Petercam analyst Michael Roeg arguing memory makers are likely to expand for AI—while noting ASML tools are extremely expensive and have long delivery lead times (reported as roughly 8–12 months). [19]
Then ASML actually reported Q3 bookings of €5.4B, including €3.6B EUV—a number investors quickly map to the next few quarters of shipments and service revenue. [20]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what the “consensus” looks like now
Wall Street isn’t shy about publishing target ranges for ASML—though it’s important to remember targets move with FX, the semiconductor cycle, and sentiment about geopolitics.
- WSJ market data listed an analyst target range with a high around $1,388.70, a low around $935.00, and an average around $1,180.77 (with the ADR trading around the low $1,070s in that snapshot). [21]
- MarketWatch similarly showed an average target price around $1,180.77 and 39 ratings in its analyst estimates snapshot. [22]
- On the European side, Barron’s/FactSet data (as displayed in Barron’s research & ratings) showed a target range and upcoming earnings timing, reflecting the same basic idea: analysts cluster around a mid‑to‑high target band, but the spread between bull and bear cases is wide. [23]
The takeaway isn’t the exact number. It’s that the market is effectively pricing ASML as:
- structurally dominant,
- AI‑levered,
- but living under a geopolitical weather system that can change the forecast fast.
Next major catalyst: ASML earnings and guidance in late January 2026
Investors don’t have to guess when the next “official” ASML narrative reset happens.
ASML’s investor calendar lists Q4 and full‑year 2025 financial results on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. [24]
That event matters because ASML explicitly said it would provide more details on its 2026 outlook in January, after reiterating it does not expect 2026 net sales to be below 2025. [25]
If markets are closed now, what should investors know before the next session?
They are closed: it’s early Saturday in New York, and U.S. exchanges reopen for the next regular session on Monday, December 29, 2025, following the standard weekend closure. Official exchange calendars also confirm the major late‑December holiday changes (Christmas closure and the Dec. 24 early close), which helps frame the “holiday liquidity” environment. [26]
Here’s what to watch before the open—especially for ASML:
1) Year‑end liquidity can amplify moves
Friday’s session was already light-volume and nearly unchanged in the indexes, per Reuters—conditions that can persist into the last trading days of the year. That’s when a single macro headline can shove semiconductor leaders around more than it “should.” [27]
2) Macro headlines that hit “risk appetite”
Reuters highlighted that investors are watching the Fed closely, with the market focused on signals like Fed meeting minutes due the following week and policy uncertainty. Even though ASML is a company-specific story, its stock tends to behave like a high‑quality “risk-on” asset when rates and growth expectations shift. [28]
3) China/export-control developments
ASML’s own guidance flags China demand as an area likely to decline in 2026, and Reuters reporting shows how politically sensitive the China revenue mix remains. Any weekend policy chatter can show up in premarket action Monday. [29]
4) Tariffs and industrial policy—especially anything affecting fab builds
The Reuters tariff-cost math is worth remembering: if tariffs raise machine prices and delay customer decisions, the market may react quickly even if ASML can pass costs through over time. [30]
5) High‑NA EUV adoption signals
Watch for customer commentary (TSMC, Intel, Samsung) around leading-edge roadmaps. Reuters has already framed the adoption debate: TSMC is evaluating timing, Intel is pushing earlier use, and ASML expects a multi‑year readiness runway. [31]
6) The “bookings narrative”
ASML bookings are a heartbeat investors keep checking. The company’s reported Q3 bookings and guidance set expectations, but analysts will keep interpreting every new datapoint through the lens of AI capex durability and customer timing. [32]
The big picture: ASML’s moat looks intact, but 2026 is shaping up as a “timing and geopolitics” year
As 2025 closes, ASML is still telling a fundamentally bullish structural story—AI-led demand, strong gross margins, and continued EUV momentum—while simultaneously warning investors not to ignore the drag that geopolitics can exert on where demand shows up and when customers commit. [33]
The market’s job over the next few weeks is basically to answer one question in ever more complicated ways:
Is 2026 a smooth continuation of the AI fab buildout—or a year of pauses, reroutes, and policy-driven detours that delay orders without killing the long-term thesis?
One of those answers supports “steady compounding.” The other supports “fasten your seatbelt.” Either way, ASML is still one of the most central companies in the semiconductor ecosystem—and the next major checkpoint is its January 28, 2026 results and outlook update. [34]
References
1. www.asml.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. apnews.com, 7. www.asml.com, 8. www.asml.com, 9. www.asml.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.asml.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.asml.com, 21. www.wsj.com, 22. www.marketwatch.com, 23. www.barrons.com, 24. www.asml.com, 25. www.asml.com, 26. www.nyse.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.asml.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.asml.com, 33. www.asml.com, 34. www.asml.com
