New York time check: It’s 1:33 a.m. ET on Saturday, December 27, 2025, in New York.
Because it’s Saturday, the NYSE is closed right now. The next core trading session is the next weekday market open, with the NYSE core session running 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. [1]
That matters for Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) because any weekend headlines—oil-price moves abroad, geopolitical flare-ups, or deal updates—can reprice energy stocks quickly when Monday’s opening auction finally hits.
OXY stock price now: where Occidental shares stand heading into the next session
As of the latest available quote, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is at $39.85, down about $0.15 (-0.38%) from the previous close.
In recent sessions, OXY has been hovering around the $40 level, and it has been trading notably below its 52-week high (MarketWatch cited a $53.20 52-week high earlier this year). [2]
That’s the snapshot: OXY is trading like a stock investors want to like—but are still pricing with caution, mainly because its near-term fortunes remain tightly coupled to commodity prices and the market’s evolving view of the company’s balance-sheet strategy.
The current market backdrop: year-end strength in stocks, but energy still needs oil to cooperate
U.S. equities just came through a quiet, post-Christmas session still sitting close to record territory, with traders watching the traditional “Santa Claus rally” stretch into year-end. [3]
Occidental, though, doesn’t trade like an AI darling riding multiple expansion. It trades like what it is: a large, cash-flow-driven energy company. And that means the big macro variable isn’t just the S&P 500 mood—it’s oil.
In OXY’s own 2026 planning commentary reported by Reuters, the company pointed directly to a tougher oil tape: Reuters noted Brent had been down year-to-date and hovering in the low $60s per barrel, citing increased OPEC+ output and weaker demand as key drivers. [4]
That crude-price context frames almost every serious discussion about OXY stock right now: when oil feels “easy,” OXY’s debt reduction + shareholder returns story shines; when oil feels constrained, investors demand more proof of resilience.
The biggest OXY headline: Berkshire’s $9.7B OxyChem deal and what it signals for the stock
One of the most consequential catalysts for OXY in late 2025 has been the announced sale of its chemicals business, OxyChem, to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion in cash. Occidental said the transaction is expected to close in Q4 2025 (subject to approvals and customary conditions). [5]
Why this deal matters to OXY shareholders
Occidental has been explicit about what it wants from this transaction: deleveraging.
- Occidental expects to use $6.5 billion of proceeds to reduce debt and reach its goal of principal debt below $15 billion, a target it set in the wake of the CrownRock acquisition announcement. [6]
- Reuters also emphasized the debt motivation and noted the company’s plan to push principal debt under that $15 billion target with the proceeds. [7]
- Fitch Ratings, in a credit-focused note, said the OxyChem sale would accelerate Occidental’s debt reduction, reinforcing the market narrative that the company is trying to move into a more flexible “returns-first” phase. [8]
The Berkshire angle: this isn’t a random counterparty
Berkshire isn’t just the buyer. It’s also OXY’s heavyweight shareholder.
- A recent SEC-filing-based summary shows Berkshire disclosing ownership around a third of Occidental (the exact figure varies by filing date and methodology). [9]
- The Financial Times described Berkshire as Occidental’s largest shareholder and framed the OxyChem purchase as a major early deal associated with Berkshire CEO-elect Greg Abel—while also noting the transaction’s role in accelerating Occidental’s deleveraging. [10]
In plain English: the market reads this as Berkshire doubling down on its broader Occidental relationship, while Occidental uses the deal to shorten the distance to a balance-sheet milestone that could unlock more shareholder payouts.
What CEO Vicki Hollub and Reuters reporting suggest about the strategy after OxyChem
Investors don’t just care that a deal was announced—they care what it enables next.
In an interview reported by Reuters, CEO Vicki Hollub argued the chemical divestiture should leave Occidental in a better position to invest in its core oil and gas business, and she suggested the company could replace the divested cash flow over roughly two and a half years—while also highlighting the interest-savings logic of reducing debt. [11]
Reuters also reported that some analysts questioned the valuation (including a mention of Scotiabank’s higher view), and that the stock dropped sharply right after the announcement—an immediate reminder that OXY’s shareholder base still debates the trade-off: “stable chemicals cash flow” vs. “faster deleveraging and returns.” [12]
Occidental earnings and cash flow: the numbers investors keep coming back to
Occidental’s most recent quarterly reporting (Q3 2025) showed a familiar theme: strong operational delivery, but with oil-price pressure in the background.
From Occidental’s Q3 2025 release:
- Operating cash flow of $2.8 billion, and operating cash flow before working capital of $3.2 billion [13]
- Free cash flow before working capital of $1.5 billion [14]
- Production of 1,465 Mboed, exceeding the high end of guidance [15]
- $1.3 billion of debt repaid in the quarter, reducing principal debt to $20.8 billion [16]
Reuters, covering the same quarter, reported Occidental’s adjusted profit of 64 cents per share beat expectations, helped by higher production despite weaker oil prices. [17]
The important “stock” takeaway from earnings season isn’t just EPS. It’s this: OXY continues to pitch itself as a cash-flow machine with a deliberate plan for where that cash goes—debt first, then increasingly shareholder returns.
The 2026 outlook: lower capex, flat-to-slight production, and discipline over growth
One of the most market-moving “forecast” items for OXY in recent coverage came from Reuters: Occidental is projecting flat to slightly higher production in 2026 (up to ~2%), while guiding to lower capital spending.
Reuters reported:
- 2026 capex expected at $6.3 billion to $6.7 billion, down from projected 2025 capex of $7.1 billion to $7.3 billion [18]
- The plan reflects a tougher oil environment and prioritizes flexibility [19]
- CFO Sunil Mathew highlighted continued focus on debt reduction and shareholder returns, including opportunistic share buybacks [20]
That framing is crucial for how investors may position ahead of Monday’s open: OXY is not trying to “win” the energy sector by outgrowing peers in barrels. It’s trying to win by out-disciplining peers in cash allocation.
Dividend and shareholder returns: what OXY is paying now—and what could change
Occidental declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.24 per share, payable January 15, 2026, to holders of record on December 10, 2025. [21]
At $0.24 quarterly, that’s $0.96 annualized. With OXY around $39.85, the implied forward yield is roughly 2.4% (ballpark; yields move with price). Dividend trackers cite a yield in that neighborhood as well. [22]
Buybacks: the “after we hit the debt target” lever
Occidental’s messaging around buybacks has been intentionally conditional: buybacks become more flexible once debt goals are met and macro conditions cooperate.
In the Q3 2025 earnings-call transcript, the company said it expects that once it hits its post-CrownRock principal debt target, it will be positioned to broaden returns of capital, and management described being “opportunistic” with buybacks—driven by macro conditions, commodity prices, and valuation relative to intrinsic value. [23]
This is why the OxyChem divestiture is so central: it’s not just a one-time transaction; it’s a potential accelerant for the “returns” chapter of the OXY equity story.
Wall Street forecasts: analyst targets, ratings, and the latest notable call
Analyst views on Occidental Petroleum stock (OXY) remain mixed, and the range of targets reflects a market that’s still split on the durability of oil prices and the valuation impact of OXY’s reshaped portfolio.
Here are the most widely circulated recent forecast datapoints:
- UBS recently trimmed its price target to $43 from $45 and maintained a Neutral rating, according to reporting distributed via Yahoo Finance. [24]
- Aggregated sell-side consensus tracked by MarketBeat shows an average price target around $49.95 (with a wide high/low range), alongside a consensus rating that leans Hold. [25]
- Zacks also reflects a similar high/low target range and a mid-range target that implies meaningful upside if the macro backdrop improves. [26]
A sober way to interpret this: the Street’s “upside case” for OXY is usually a combo of (1) steadier-to-stronger oil prices, (2) debt falling fast enough to justify higher shareholder returns, and (3) no major execution surprises on the portfolio reset. The “cautious case” is basically those three things—but with oil and/or execution wobbling.
The optionality bet: carbon capture and Stratos DAC
Occidental is unusual among large oil producers because it has tried to build a credible “low-carbon” business line—most visibly through 1PointFive and direct air capture (DAC).
Key, source-backed points investors often cite:
- Occidental/1PointFive said it secured Class VI permits related to the STRATOS DAC project. [27]
- 1PointFive describes Stratos (under construction in Ector County, Texas) as designed to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of CO₂ per year once operational. [28]
- 1PointFive has also stated Stratos is on track for a 2025 start-up in its project communications. [29]
From a stock perspective, this “low-carbon” segment tends to be treated as long-dated optionality: it can add strategic value and new revenue streams, but near-term OXY price action is still overwhelmingly dominated by (a) oil and gas cash flow and (b) capital allocation milestones.
If you’re watching OXY this weekend: what to know before Monday’s market open
Since the market is closed right now, OXY investors are basically in the “news digestion and setup” window. Here’s what typically matters most into the next session—especially for an oil-sensitive name like Occidental:
1) Watch crude-linked headlines and Monday’s opening tone
Reuters’ reporting on OXY’s 2026 capex forecast explicitly tied management caution to the broader oil slump and demand/supply dynamics. [30]
Weekend geopolitical or OPEC+ chatter can shift energy sentiment before U.S. equities even open.
2) Track deal-progress risk around OxyChem
Occidental’s own materials stated the OxyChem sale is expected to close in Q4 2025, subject to approvals and conditions. [31]
With year-end days dwindling, investors will pay attention to any credible signs the closing timeline is slipping—or accelerating—because that timing affects when debt paydown and potential enhanced returns can begin in earnest.
3) Pay attention to what “returns” could look like post-deleveraging
Fitch framed the sale as accelerating debt reduction, which is the key precondition for more shareholder returns. [32]
Meanwhile, management has already signaled an opportunistic buyback stance tied to valuation and macro conditions. [33]
4) Know the next major scheduled catalyst: earnings
Based on historical reporting patterns, OXY’s next earnings date is widely expected around mid-February 2026 (these are estimates, not official announcements). [34]
For a stock trading heavily on cash flow, the next earnings print and guidance update can quickly reset sentiment.
Bottom line for Occidental Petroleum stock (OXY) right now
With OXY around $40 and the NYSE closed this Saturday in New York, the near-term setup is a tug-of-war between:
- A balance-sheet and capital-allocation upgrade story (OxyChem sale, debt reduction goals, potential for broader shareholder returns) [35]
- A commodity-price reality check (management’s lower 2026 capex plan and flat production outlook in a weaker oil environment) [36]
- A market backdrop that’s optimistic overall (U.S. indices near highs into year-end) but still selective about cyclicals [37]
If Monday’s session opens with steady risk appetite and oil sentiment doesn’t deteriorate, OXY tends to trade as a “cash flow + catalysts” name. If oil weakens or deal/closing uncertainty grows, the stock can revert back to a “show me” posture quickly.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.oxy.com, 6. www.oxy.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.fitchratings.com, 9. fintel.io, 10. www.ft.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.oxy.com, 14. www.oxy.com, 15. www.oxy.com, 16. www.oxy.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.oxy.com, 22. www.dividend.com, 23. www.oxy.com, 24. finance.yahoo.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.zacks.com, 27. www.1pointfive.com, 28. www.1pointfive.com, 29. www.1pointfive.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.oxy.com, 32. www.fitchratings.com, 33. www.oxy.com, 34. www.zacks.com, 35. www.oxy.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com
