New York time check: It is 2:04 a.m. ET on Saturday, December 27, 2025, which means U.S. stock exchanges are closed for the weekend.
That timing matters for TMC the metals company (Nasdaq: TMC) because the stock just posted a sharp, high-volume move in the most recent session—exactly the kind of setup that can lead to gap risk (big up/down moves at the next open) when markets reopen.
As of the latest available price update, TMC last traded around $6.82, following a steep decline from the prior close. [1]
What happened to TMC stock in the latest session?
In the Friday, Dec. 26 session, TMC fell to $6.82 from $7.62, a drop of about 10.5%, after opening near $7.66 and trading as low as $6.61. Volume was roughly 11.6 million shares, signaling an unusually energetic tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. [2]
This move did not happen in a vacuum. Over the prior days, TMC had already been in a volatility-heavy stretch—rising and falling fast enough to attract short-term traders, options activity, and headline-driven momentum.
The biggest driver right now: U.S. regulatory process enters a public phase
A major, concrete catalyst for TMC—and a key reason the stock remains headline-sensitive—hit the public record this week:
A Federal Register notice published December 23, 2025 states that NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) received amended deep seabed mining exploration license applications from The Metals Company USA, LLC (TMC USA) for areas in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, and that NOAA has determined the applications are fully compliant with information requirements under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA) and implementing regulations. [3]
Just as important for investors: NOAA opened an official public participation timeline.
- Public comments are due by February 23, 2026
- Two virtual public hearings are scheduled for January 27–28, 2026 (3 p.m. to 7 p.m. ET)
- Registration deadline is January 21, 2026 (5 p.m. ET) [4]
This matters because it turns the next several weeks into a potential headline conveyor belt: supportive comments, organized opposition, scientific disputes, legal threats, and political pressure can all emerge in real time—often moving a stock before fundamentals change.
Why TMC is different from a typical mining stock
TMC is not valued like a mature miner shipping metal every day. It’s valued like a high-beta “permit + technology + geopolitics” option on future production.
The company’s thesis centers on collecting polymetallic nodules from the seabed—containing nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese—metals tied to batteries, electrification, and industrial supply chains.
That makes TMC unusually sensitive to regulatory milestones. In March 2025, the company said it initiated a process with NOAA to apply for exploration licenses and commercial recovery permits under the U.S. seabed mining framework, arguing the U.S. path offers a “stable” and enforceable route. CEO Gerard Barron framed it as a move driven by regulatory delays at the international level. [5]
The international backlash: ISA warns against unilateral action
TMC’s U.S.-leaning pathway has been sharply criticized internationally, because deep-sea mining in areas beyond national jurisdiction is typically associated with the International Seabed Authority (ISA) framework under UNCLOS (U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea).
In an ISA statement responding to TMC’s announcement, ISA Secretary-General Leticia Carvalho expressed “deep concern” and argued that unilateral actions would violate international law and undermine the seabed’s status as the “common heritage of humankind.” [6]
The ISA also publicly raised concerns following a U.S. executive order related to offshore critical minerals, explicitly referencing TMC USA’s intent to pursue permits under U.S. law for activities beyond U.S. jurisdiction. [7]
Investor takeaway: even if a U.S. process advances, the company can still face international diplomatic pressure, reputational risk, and potential legal complexity—factors that can influence partners, financing, and timelines.
Environmental science is a real swing factor—and it’s not settled
Deep-sea mining is still one of those “we barely understand the place we want to industrialize” debates.
Reuters reported in March 2025 on research indicating environmental impacts from deep-sea mining tests in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone were still detectable decades later, including persistent disruption of seafloor sediment and reductions in some marine organisms, based on work involving Britain’s National Oceanography Centre. [8]
Meanwhile, the Associated Press highlighted the controversy around TMC’s U.S. permitting route and the warnings from environmental groups about potentially irreversible harm to deep-sea ecosystems. [9]
Why this hits the stock: environmental opposition doesn’t only affect “public opinion.” It can shape:
- permitting timelines,
- litigation risk,
- political support (or lack of it),
- and the willingness of major industrial partners to commit.
Company fundamentals: cash runway, losses, and milestone-driven messaging
TMC is still a development-stage company—meaning cash burn and financing strategy remain central.
In its Q3 2025 corporate update (Nov. 13, 2025), TMC reported:
- ~$115.6 million in cash at Sept. 30, 2025
- $11.5 million cash used in operations in the quarter
- net loss of $184.5 million (with management emphasizing non-cash/non-recurring items affecting results) [10]
Management also highlighted additional liquidity and stated it had no need to access public markets “anytime soon” (as of that update), pointing to cash plus other sources of liquidity. [11]
Earlier, in August 2025, the company said NOAA confirmed full compliance of TMC USA’s exploration license applications and described the process stages under DSHMRA while targeting a Q4 2027 production start. [12]
Strategic partner spotlight: Korea Zinc investment
One of the more consequential credibility signals for TMC in 2025 was the entry of Korea Zinc as a strategic investor.
In June 2025, TMC announced an $85.2 million strategic equity investment by Korea Zinc in exchange for 19.6 million shares (priced at the then-last close of $4.34), plus a three-year warrant arrangement. Korea Zinc’s chairman Yun B. Choi also publicly said he was “bullish on nickel and copper,” tying the partnership to downstream processing ambitions. [13]
Why investors care: if TMC ever becomes a real metal supplier, downstream processing/refining capacity and credible industrial partners are often as important as the resource itself.
Forecasts and analyst targets: upside exists, but estimates vary widely
Wall Street coverage for smaller, high-volatility names like TMC tends to be thin—and price targets can differ sharply depending on assumptions about permitting and timelines.
Here’s what widely cited aggregators report recently:
- TipRanks: average $8.33 target, range $6.50–$11.00, with a “Strong Buy” consensus based on a small number of analysts. [14]
- TradingView: target around $8.00, range $6.50–$11.00. [15]
- Zacks: average target around $8.60 (based on five analysts), range not fully shown in snippet. [16]
- MarketWatch: shows an average target near $8.00 (with four ratings listed). [17]
Two important caveats for readers:
- These targets can change quickly with regulatory developments.
- For TMC, the “model” is often less about next quarter’s earnings and more about probability-weighted scenarios for permits, timelines, and political feasibility.
Positioning, short interest, and options: why moves can get extreme
TMC trades like a stock that knows it’s controversial.
As of Dec. 15, 2025, Yahoo Finance statistics show:
- 28.27 million shares short
- short ratio about 2.83
- short % of float about 11.11% [18]
That matters because high short interest plus headline catalysts can create both:
- short squeezes (fast upside moves as shorts cover), and
- air pockets (fast downside moves if momentum flips).
Trefis pointed to a recent surge tied to a “bullish options frenzy,” describing the move as technically driven and connected to short-cover dynamics. [19]
Meanwhile, options data providers have shown elevated implied volatility for TMC options in late December—another sign the market is actively pricing uncertainty. [20]
The broader market backdrop: risk-on stocks, record-ish metals, and year-end dynamics
TMC sits at the intersection of two 2025 narratives: risk appetite in equities and scarcity anxiety in industrial metals.
Reuters reported that U.S. stocks are closing out 2025 near record highs, with the S&P 500 within striking distance of 7,000, as investors look toward an upbeat finish to the year and watch the Fed’s next signals (including upcoming Fed minutes). [21]
On the commodity side, Reuters has also detailed how tight supply and AI-driven demand have supported copper, including forecasts that point to market deficits. [22]
This macro context can help TMC sentiment—because the more markets worry about critical mineral supply chains, the more attention speculative “future supply” stories tend to get. But it cuts both ways: when speculative appetite cools, TMC can drop fast.
If the market is closed now, what should investors watch before the next session?
Because it’s the weekend in New York, the next actionable moment is the next regular U.S. session (Monday, Dec. 29, 2025)—and TMC is the type of stock that can move sharply at the open.
Here’s the practical pre-open checklist many investors focus on for names like this:
1) Track the NOAA docket narrative, not just “TMC stock news.”
The Federal Register notice sets up a defined runway: comment submissions, headlines about hearings, and possible organized campaigns for/against. [23]
2) Watch for credible regulatory or diplomatic signals.
International opposition is not theoretical; the ISA has formally criticized the approach and framed it as a rule-of-law issue. [24]
3) Respect gap risk—use limit orders, not blind market orders.
With elevated volatility, spreads can widen at the open (especially after a -10% day).
4) Re-check positioning metrics.
High short interest and heavy options activity can create sudden squeezes or cascades. [25]
5) Remember what kind of company this is financially.
TMC has emphasized liquidity, but it is still pre-revenue and milestone-dependent, with meaningful losses on the income statement. [26]
Bottom line
TMC stock is trading in a classic “catalyst corridor” where regulatory process, environmental science, and political legitimacy can matter as much as quarterly numbers. The newly active NOAA public-comment timeline is a real, date-stamped development that can keep the stock in the news cycle into early 2026. [27]
At the same time, the stock’s recent action—big swings, heavy volume, and positioning-driven moves—suggests investors should treat TMC as high risk / high volatility, especially heading into the next session after a sharp selloff. [28]
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.federalregister.gov, 4. www.federalregister.gov, 5. investors.metals.co, 6. www.isa.org.jm, 7. isa.org.jm, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. apnews.com, 10. investors.metals.co, 11. investors.metals.co, 12. investors.metals.co, 13. investors.metals.co, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.zacks.com, 17. www.marketwatch.com, 18. finance.yahoo.com, 19. www.trefis.com, 20. optioncharts.io, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.federalregister.gov, 24. isa.org.jm, 25. finance.yahoo.com, 26. investors.metals.co, 27. www.federalregister.gov, 28. finance.yahoo.com
