As of 4:20 a.m. ET in New York on Saturday, December 27, 2025, U.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend. [1]
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) was last quoted around $188.71, down about 2.8% from the prior close—an eye-catching move for a stock that’s become one of the market’s most watched AI bellwethers.
That timing matters because the broader market is trying to finish 2025 with a flourish. Reuters reports the S&P 500 is within about 1% of 7,000, following a strong year in which investors have rotated between AI leaders and more moderately valued sectors, while keeping one eye on Federal Reserve policy and the year-end “Santa Claus rally” window. [2]
Below is what’s driving Palantir stock right now, what analysts are debating, and what investors may want to have on their radar before the next regular session opens Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET. [3]
Palantir stock: where PLTR stands heading into the next session
The latest PLTR quote sits near $189, after a sharp 2025 run that has repeatedly forced investors to answer the same question: Is this a compounding software business… or a market narrative that’s priced beyond perfection? [4]
Two market backdrops are especially relevant into Monday:
- Year-end liquidity is thin. Reuters noted holiday-thinned trading volumes during the late-December rally and the post-Christmas session, which can amplify stock swings in both directions. [5]
- Policy and rates still matter—even for AI darlings. Reuters’ week-ahead coverage highlights attention on the Fed’s path after 2025 rate cuts, plus upcoming catalysts like Fed communication (including meeting minutes) and leadership uncertainty that can move risk appetite. [6]
For PLTR specifically, the “why” behind any single day’s move often comes down to valuation sensitivity: when the market is calm, Palantir can drift; when macro nerves spike, high-multiple stocks tend to feel it first.
The headlines moving Palantir: contracts, partnerships, and the AI “operating system” pitch
Palantir’s bull case has evolved beyond “government data contractor” into a bigger claim: that it can become an operational AI layer for defense, industry, and enterprise workflows. Recent developments feed directly into that narrative:
1) U.S. Navy’s $448 million ShipOS investment: industrial AI goes mainstream
On December 9, 2025, the U.S. Navy announced a $448 million strategic investment in a “Shipbuilding Operating System (Ship OS)” that will leverage Palantir’s software to modernize shipbuilding operations and supply chains. The announcement included dramatic pilot metrics—such as submarine schedule planning reportedly dropping from 160 manual hours to under 10 minutes at General Dynamics Electric Boat. [7]
Defense outlet Breaking Defense described ShipOS as an initial $448 million contract aimed at proliferating Palantir’s AI tools across shipyards and suppliers to boost nuclear submarine production. It also reported comments suggesting performance-based accountability—Palantir’s continued success depends on measurable outcomes that industry will pay to sustain. [8]
Even the tech press treated it as a major “proof point.” The Register noted Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called the Navy deal “another watershed” for Palantir’s Foundry platform and said it’s a “big step forward.” [9]
2) Nvidia partnership: making operational AI faster—and more “real-time”
On October 28, 2025, Reuters reported that Nvidia and Palantir announced a deal in which Palantir will tap Nvidia’s chips and software to help customers speed decision-making in complex areas such as logistics. Reuters quoted Nvidia enterprise AI VP Justin Boitano describing how faster optimization enables companies to re-run supply-chain scenarios frequently. [10]
Nvidia’s own press release positioned the collaboration as a first-of-its-kind stack for “operational AI,” featuring Palantir’s Ontology and AIP integrating Nvidia accelerated computing and models. It also included direct executive commentary from Jensen Huang and Palantir CEO Alex Karp, underscoring that both companies see this as more than a one-off integration. [11]
3) U.S. Army consolidation: up to $10 billion over 10 years (but not a guaranteed spend)
Earlier in 2025, Reuters reported the U.S. Army said it was consolidating dozens of contracts into a single enterprise deal with Palantir, with the option to purchase up to $10 billion over 10 years, while emphasizing it did not commit the Army to new purchases. [12]
4) Boeing defense partnership: commercial-scale data analytics inside a major manufacturer
Reuters also reported in September that Boeing’s defense and space unit partnered with Palantir to use its AI solutions platform to standardize analytics across production lines, including classified projects supporting sensitive missions. [13]
Bottom line: These aren’t “nice-to-have” pilots. They are the kind of relationships that, if they stick, can turn Palantir into embedded infrastructure inside institutions that move slowly—and spend heavily.
Earnings and guidance: strong growth, but the market demands perfection
Palantir’s most recent earnings cycle reinforced the core fundamental story—rapid growth and upbeat guidance—while re-igniting the valuation debate.
Reuters reported that Palantir guided Q4 revenue to $1.327–$1.331 billion (above analysts’ estimates cited by LSEG), and posted Q3 revenue of $1.18 billion, up 63%, with adjusted EPS of $0.21 beating estimates. [14]
But Reuters also captured the tug-of-war investors keep replaying:
- Blake Anderson (Carson Group) warned that even a slight growth deceleration can be a “cause of concern” given the stock’s valuation. [15]
- Gil Luria (D.A. Davidson) argued the results may be enough to support expectations embedded in the share price—at least for now. [16]
If you want the cleanest mental model for PLTR today, it’s this:
Palantir can execute brilliantly and still be risky—because the valuation sets a very high bar for what “brilliant” must look like next quarter.
Valuation and sentiment: why PLTR can drop on good news
Palantir’s multiple has repeatedly been the headline.
- Reuters noted PLTR trading at a 12-month-forward P/E of 246.2 in early November, far above Nvidia by that measure at the time. [17]
- In August, Reuters reported “valuation concerns,” including commentary that the stock traded at over 200x forward earnings and cited Morningstar analysts saying it was becoming “difficult-to-justify” as a valuation story. [18]
- A fresh Investing.com analysis published early Dec. 27 described PLTR as nearing a “valuation wall,” arguing the market is pricing Palantir like a core AI platform with minimal tolerance for execution mistakes. [19]
Sentiment can cut both ways, too. Reuters described Palantir as a retail favorite and noted that investor Michael Burry disclosed bearish bets on Nvidia and Palantir, with AJ Bell’s Dan Coatsworth framing the post-earnings dip as potentially just a “pause for breath.” [20]
Analyst forecasts: wide target range, “neutral” tone
Consensus-style forecasts show how polarized the PLTR debate is.
TradingView’s summary of analyst forecasts lists a 1-year price target around $189.40, with a high estimate of $255 and a low estimate of $50, alongside an overall “neutral” rating based on recent analyst inputs. [21]
That spread is doing important work. It’s the market admitting, in numeric form, that:
- The bull case assumes Palantir sustains exceptional growth and keeps expanding into new “platform” roles like logistics and industrial AI.
- The bear case assumes even mild deceleration triggers multiple compression that fundamentals can’t offset in the near term.
Risks investors should not hand-wave away
Palantir’s growth story is real—but so are the frictions that come with being embedded in governments and national-security-adjacent systems.
Political and regulatory scrutiny
In the UK, The Guardian reported MPs questioned government contracts involving Palantir following Swiss security-related concerns, while also quoting Palantir pushing back and stating customers remain in control of their data through contractual, procedural, and technical controls. [22]
“AI bubble” sensitivity
Multiple Reuters reports tie Palantir’s stock action to broader “AI bubble” worries—where elevated capital spending, rate expectations, and sentiment shifts can spill into high-multiple software names quickly. [23]
Markets are closed now: what to know before Monday’s open
Because it’s Saturday, you won’t get fresh price discovery in PLTR until the next session—unless material news breaks that changes expectations before the bell.
Here’s what investors typically watch heading into the next trading day:
1) The macro tape (because valuation makes PLTR macro-sensitive).
U.S. indexes have been hovering near record highs into year-end, and investors are watching the path of Fed policy and other catalysts closely. [24]
2) Any weekend headlines touching defense spending, procurement, or large enterprise AI deals.
ShipOS is the kind of program where follow-on details—scope, performance metrics, rollout speed—can matter as much as the headline dollar figure. [25]
3) Extended-hours mechanics (for planning, not trading fantasies).
Nasdaq lists pre-market hours starting 4:00 a.m. ET and after-hours trading until 8:00 p.m. ET on normal weekdays, with a reminder that volatility and liquidity risks are higher outside regular hours. [26]
4) A simple “levels” reality check.
If PLTR opens Monday with a gap (up or down), remember: year-end liquidity can exaggerate gaps, and Palantir’s valuation means the market can re-price it quickly on small changes in expectations. [27]
The takeaway for Palantir stock watchers
Palantir is entering the next session with two powerful forces pulling in opposite directions:
- Bull fuel: Big-ticket defense/industrial wins like the Navy’s ShipOS initiative, plus partnerships that broaden Palantir’s enterprise AI footprint (notably Nvidia). [28]
- Bear gravity: Valuation. Even supportive earnings and guidance have to fight a constant battle against the possibility of multiple compression, especially when market narratives shift. [29]
In other words: Palantir is behaving like a platform stock, priced like a platform stock, and judged like a platform stock. The market may reward it for operational proof (ShipOS-style metrics) — but it will punish any hint that the growth curve is bending faster than expected.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.nyse.com, 4. m.investing.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.navy.mil, 8. breakingdefense.com, 9. www.theregister.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. m.investing.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. www.theguardian.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.navy.mil, 26. www.nasdaq.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.navy.mil, 29. www.reuters.com
